{"id":13008,"date":"2024-06-14T12:05:38","date_gmt":"2024-06-14T16:05:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-asia\/?p=13008"},"modified":"2024-06-14T12:05:38","modified_gmt":"2024-06-14T16:05:38","slug":"redder-updating-our-recession-scorecard","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-asia\/insights\/redder-updating-our-recession-scorecard","title":{"rendered":"Redder: Updating our recession scorecard"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\n      Just two years ago, our Recession Scorecard was flashing nothing but green\n      lights for the U.S. economy. That unequivocally unanimous rating began to\n      deteriorate in the summer of 2022. First, in July 2022, the Treasury yield\n      curve inverted when the 1-year Treasury yield rose above the 10-year\n      yield, signaling that credit conditions were tightening in a serious way.\n      Every recession in more than 100 years has been preceded by such a yield\n      shift.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      A couple of months later another of our seven indicators \u2013 the Conference\n      Board\u2019s Leading Economic Index \u2013 went red by falling below where it had been\n      a year earlier. This has occurred before the onset of every U.S. recession\n      since the late 1950s, or for as long as this indicator has been around. In\n      the months that followed, three more Scorecard indicators shifted out of\n      the positive green zone and into cautionary yellow territory.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Now, a third Scorecard indicator has been rerated to the recessionary red\n      column: as of Q1, the growth rate of U.S. nominal GDP has fallen below the\n      federal funds rate. Such a crossing point has occurred either before or\n      just after the start of every recession going back to the 1950s.\n    <\/p>\n    <h3>U.S. Recession Scorecard<\/h3>\n    <div class=\"row mb-4\">\n      <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\"\n          src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/global\/redder-updating-scorecard-en-chart-1.png\"\n          alt=\"U.S. Recession Scorecard\"\n          class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\"\n          aria-describedby=\"chart1desc\"\n        \/>\n        <p class=\"footnote\">\n          * Potential change to Recessionary status pending.\n        <\/p>\n        <p class=\"disclaimer\">Source &#8211; RBC Wealth Management<\/p>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n    <!-- THIS TABLE IS ONLY VISIBLE TO SCREEN READER SOFTWARE -->\n    <table\n      class=\"sr-only\"\n      id=\"chart1desc\"\n    >\n      <col \/>\n      <col \/>\n      <thead>\n        <tr>\n          <th scope=\"col\">Indicator<\/th>\n          <th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th>\n        <\/tr>\n      <\/thead>\n      <tr>\n        <td>Yield curve (10-year to 1-year Treasuries)<\/td>\n        <td>Recessionary<\/td>\n      <\/tr>\n      <tr>\n        <td>Unemployment claims<\/td>\n        <td>Neutral\/Cautionary<\/td>\n      <\/tr>\n      <tr>\n        <td>Unemployment rate<\/td>\n        <td>Expansionary; potential change to Recessionary pending<\/td>\n      <\/tr>\n      <tr>\n        <td>Conference Board Leading Economic Index<\/td>\n        <td>Recessionary<\/td>\n      <\/tr>\n      <tr>\n        <td>Non-financial corporate cash flows<\/td>\n        <td>Expansionary<\/td>\n      <\/tr>\n      <tr>\n        <td>ISM New Orders minus Inventories<\/td>\n        <td>Neutral\/Cautionary<\/td>\n      <\/tr>\n      <tr>\n        <td>Fed funds rate vs. nominal GDP growth<\/td>\n        <td>Recessionary<\/td>\n      <\/tr>\n    <\/table>\n    <!-- ######### -->\n    <p>\n      The notional economic linkage for this indicator is with categories of\n      spending \u2013 primarily residential construction, business capital investment,\n      and consumer spending on durables \u2013 for which the cost of borrowing is an\n      important determinant. While not the largest component of GDP, at about\n      25 percent, spending on fixed assets and durables is highly cyclical. It is often\n      a major contributing factor to recessions, usually going into outright\n      decline under pressure from high interest rates, restricted availability\n      of credit, and falling consumer demand.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      One other Scorecard indicator \u2013 the unemployment rate \u2013 could be poised to\n      flip into the red column, perhaps as early as next month. U.S.\n      unemployment has risen in three of the past four months and now sits at\n      4.0 percent, its highest reading in almost two-and-a-half years. That has been\n      enough to turn our trend-smoothing line for this data series upward for\n      the first time since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      As things stand, three of the seven indicators are rated \u201cRecessionary,\u201d\n      and two are set at \u201cCautionary,\u201d while two remain at \u201cExpansionary\u201d green.\n      If the unemployment rate shifts to red next month, the count will become\n      4, 2, and 1. There is no score that makes a recession unquestionably\n      inevitable. But even at today\u2019s levels, the Scorecard portrays a decidedly\n      different risk profile for the U.S. economy than the wall of green that\n      prevailed in the decade following the global financial crisis and was\n      restored within a few months of the short-lived pandemic-induced plunge.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      U.S. recessions and equity bear markets in the developed world\u2019s stock\n      markets tend to go hand in hand. In our view, a redder tilt in our\n      Scorecard should keep investors alert to a riskier, more challenging\n      environment for equities that might arrive in the coming quarters.\n    <\/p>\n    <h3>Beware U.S. recessions<\/h3>\n    <h4>Equity bear markets typically accompany economic contractions<\/h4>\n    <div class=\"row mb-4\">\n      <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\"\n          src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/global\/redder-updating-scorecard-en-chart-2.png\"\n          alt=\"Performance of four major equity indexes since December 1959\"\n          class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\"\n          aria-describedby=\"chart2desc\"\n        \/>\n        <p\n          class=\"sr-only\"\n          id=\"chart2desc\"\n        >\n          The line chart shows the performance of four major equity indexes\n          since December 1959: the S&#038;P 500, S&#038;P\/TSX, MSCI Europe (since 1987),\n          and FTSE All-Share. Performance is shown on a logarithmic scale,\n          indexed to December 1959 = 100. Periods of U.S. economic recession are\n          highlighted. All four indexes have followed similar generally rising\n          paths, with periods of declining performance corresponding to\n          recessions.\n        <\/p>\n        <ul class=\"rbc-legend rbc-legend-inline\">\n          <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">\n            <div class=\"rbc-legend-line c-dark-blue-tint-1\"><\/div>\n            S&amp;P&nbsp;500\n          <\/li>\n          <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">\n            <div class=\"rbc-legend-line c-tundra\"><\/div>\n            S&amp;P\/TSX\n          <\/li>\n          <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">\n            <div class=\"rbc-legend-line c-sun\"><\/div>\n            MSCI&nbsp;Europe\n          <\/li>\n          <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">\n            <div class=\"rbc-legend-line c-apple\"><\/div>\n            FTSE&nbsp;All&#8209;Share\n          <\/li>\n        <\/ul>\n        <p class=\"footnote\">Shaded areas represent U.S. recessions.<\/p>\n        <p class=\"disclaimer\">\n          Source &#8211; Standard &amp; Poor\u2019s, Toronto Stock Exchange, FactSet;\n          quarterly data through 3\/31\/24, shown on a logarithmic scale, indexed\n          to December 1959 = 100\n        <\/p>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Midway through 2024, changes in our U.S. Recession Scorecard signal rising economic risks for equity investors in the second half of the year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":13009,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2024-06-13T11:15:02","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[42],"tags":[44,443],"rbcwm_content_owner":[390],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[205],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[212],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-13008","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-u-s-recession","tag-unemployment-rates-rise","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_segment-business-owners-and-entrepreneurs","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"Midway through 2024, changes in our U.S. Recession Scorecard signal rising economic risks for equity investors in the second half of the year.","rbcwm_post_author":[104],"rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":[],"disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[8376],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.8 (Yoast SEO v26.8) - 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