{"id":13895,"date":"2025-01-24T11:31:01","date_gmt":"2025-01-24T16:31:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-asia\/?p=13895"},"modified":"2025-01-24T11:31:01","modified_gmt":"2025-01-24T16:31:01","slug":"processing-the-us-legislative-process","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-asia\/insights\/processing-the-us-legislative-process","title":{"rendered":"Processing the U.S. legislative process"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Atul Bhatia, CFA<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Key points<\/h2>\n
    \n
  • \n Four groups are part of the law-making process: the president, House\n of Representatives, Senate, and courts.\n <\/li>\n
  • \n Despite both chambers of Congress being controlled by Republicans,\n there is no guarantee the Trump administration will have a clear path\n to legislative success.\n <\/li>\n
  • \n The use of reconciliation and executive orders will be important, but\n the use of the traditional legislative process should not be\n forgotten.\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n <\/div>\n \n

    \n As a reminder, there are four main players in the U.S. law-making\n landscape: the House of Representatives, Senate, president, and the\n courts. Even though the Republican Party controls the first three \u2013 and has\n had significant success in the judicial process \u2013 each of these institutions\n has peculiarities that complicate lawmaking even for a majority party.\n <\/p>\n

    \n The House of Representatives is composed of 435 members elected for\n two-year terms. Institutionally, the House is dominated by its speaker and\n the Rules Committee. These two exert significant control on what\n legislation will be considered and can heavily influence its odds of\n passage. There are ways around the speaker, but they\u2019re slow and\n complicated. Politically, House districts tend to lean strongly in favour\n of one political party, leaving many members more vulnerable to attacks\n from within their own party than from the other end of the political\n spectrum. The result is a tendency toward more extreme views by House\n members.\n <\/p>\n

    \n The 100 U.S. Senators are elected for six-year terms, with one-third of\n the body chosen every two years. Senators are elected on a statewide\n basis, which tends to reward candidates with more moderate, broader\n appeal. Institutionally, the Senate is defined by the filibuster, a\n procedural hurdle that effectively requires a 60-vote supermajority to\n pass most bills.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Given the current composition of the Senate, the filibuster means\n legislation requires bipartisan support to get through the Senate. Without\n it, however, Republican votes would be sufficient. The filibuster survives\n on sufferance; there is an established parliamentary procedure, referred\n to as the \u201cnuclear option,\u201d that can remove the restriction by a simple\n majority vote. To date, the filibuster on most legislation has survived,\n although it has been eliminated for judicial confirmations and some budget\n measures.\n <\/p>\n

    \n The president\u2019s role in legislation is relatively simple \u2013 approve or veto.\n If approved, the bill becomes law. A presidential veto can only be\n overturned by a two-thirds majority of Senators and House members.\n Presidential vetoes have become increasingly rare through the post-war\n period. President Harry Truman, for instance, rejected 250 bills in the\n 1940s and 50s and Congress overturned a dozen of those; for Ronald Reagan\n in the 1980s, those numbers were 78 and 9, respectively, while Barack\n Obama vetoed 12 bills, only one of which was overturned.\n <\/p>\n

    \n The decline in the use of the veto is largely due to greater coordination\n between the House, Senate, and president. Lawmakers increasingly tend to\n pre-package bills, only advancing legislation that they know \u2013 or have\n strong reason to believe \u2013 will receive congressional and presidential\n approval. In essence, the president\u2019s veto power is used early in the\n process to shape the type of bill that Congress considers, obviating the\n need to formally reject bills later in the process.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Finally, a law or specific provisions can still be overturned by the\n courts if found to be unconstitutional. The exact level of review the\n court applies varies by subject matter, and the modern Court tends to give\n deference to economic laws.\n <\/p>\n \n

    Comparing the two chambers of the United States Congress<\/h3>\n
    \n \n \n \n Issue<\/span><\/th>\n House of Representatives<\/th>\n Senate<\/th>\n <\/tr>\n <\/thead>\n \n \n Membership<\/strong><\/td>\n 435, representing individual districts within each state.<\/td>\n 100, elected on a statewide basis (two from each state).<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n \n Term of office<\/strong><\/td>\n Two years; all members subject to biennial election.<\/td>\n Six years; one-third of chamber turns over every two years.<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n \n \n Critical procedural limit on passing legislation<\/strong>\n <\/td>\n \n Speaker and Rules Committee control agenda and rules for debate.\n <\/td>\n \n Filibuster effectively requires 60 votes to pass most bills.\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n \n Electoral risks<\/strong><\/td>\n Largely intra-party; membership tends to be more partisan.<\/td>\n \n Typically more centrist; members tend to reflect the central\n tendencies of state electorates.\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n \n White House influence<\/strong><\/td>\n \n High for most issues; taxes, spending, and deficits are typically\n contentious.\n <\/td>\n \n Moderate; question largely turns on potential elimination of\n filibuster.\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n \n What to watch<\/strong><\/td>\n \n Debt ceiling increase; tax cuts not matched by spending cuts; size\n of any deficit expansion.\n <\/td>\n Filibuster; overturning of Byrd Rule on reconciliation.<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <\/tbody>\n <\/table>\n <\/div>\n

    Source – RBC Wealth Management<\/p>\n\n \n

    Politicians change but politics is eternal<\/h2>\n

    \n With both chambers of Congress controlled by Republicans, the Trump\n administration, in theory, should have a relatively clear path to\n legislative success. In practice, the picture is more complicated.\n <\/p>\n

    \n The Republican majority in the House is thin, but we believe is likely\n reliable on many issues. Modern politics is about votes and money, and the\n combination of Elon Musk\u2019s Political Action Committee (PAC), and President\n Trump\u2019s popularity with his party represent substantial pressure on\n Republican House members to toe the line.\n <\/p>\n \n

    Republicans maintain a slim but powerful House majority<\/h3>\n
    \n
    \n \"Republicans\n

    \n The bar chart shows the balance of Democratic and Republican seats in\n the U.S. House of Representatives as of January 2024. Democrats hold\n 215 seats and Republicans 219 seats, with 1 seat vacant.\n <\/p>\n

    Source – U.S. House of Representatives<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

    \n Their combined influence is particularly acute for representatives in\n heavily Republican districts. Congressional elections in the U.S. are\n typically a two-step process \u2013 a primary election where each party holds a\n vote to select its official candidate, followed by a general election\n between all candidates qualified for the ballot. In districts that lean\n heavily toward one party, the primary election is effectively the final\n election since the dominant party\u2019s candidate will almost certainly occupy\n the office.\n <\/p>\n

    \n For most issues, the threat of being \u201cprimaried,\u201d or facing a primary\n challenger endorsed by Trump and financed by Musk, is likely sufficient to\n keep the Republicans\u2019 thin House majority intact. Where we see the\n legislative path becoming more complicated is on budget matters.\n <\/p>\n

    \n There are two contrary strands to budget vote gathering. First, large\n budget deficits are anathema to large swathes of Congress and voters.\n Second, keeping government funds flowing to constituents is a key\n Congressional function \u2013 for most members, the difference between wasteful\n government spending and vital national outlays is whether jobs are created\n in someone else\u2019s district or their own.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Those twin realities are going to make it very difficult, in our view, to\n get major budget changes through the House \u2013 trying to find a mix of tax\n cuts, spending cuts, and deficit levels that are acceptable to Republicans\n is likely to be a very heavy lift, particularly since the thin minority\n allows for only a handful of no votes on a bill. Primary threats are less\n successful on budgetary matters, since a House candidate who votes against\n a job-creating federal program in their district is unlikely to win their\n election, making it a lose if you do, lose if you don\u2019t situation.\n <\/p>\n

    In the Senate, the complications are different but equally real.<\/p>\n

    \n The primary issue is that senators face a very different election\n calculus. Two-thirds of the chamber is secure in their seats for at least\n four years and senators from most states are less threatened by attacks\n from more extreme members of their own party. This leaves senators better\n able to resist White House pressure.\n <\/p>\n

    \n The key political question for the Senate is eliminating the filibuster;\n as long as a bill requires 60 votes, Democrats will have leverage. Cutting\n the filibuster \u2013 which has been part of the Senate since inception \u2013 is a\n risky move, given that Republicans have a thin majority and that midterm\n elections tend to favour the minority party. For senators who are looking\n for a longer career in the institution, alienating colleagues and shifting\n the balance of power so heavily in favour of the majority party is a\n double-edged sword.\n <\/p>\n \n

    \n Republicans flip the Senate but remain subject to filibuster constraint\n <\/h3>\n
    \n
    \n \"Republicans\n

    \n The bar chart shows the balance of Democratic and Republican seats in\n the U.S. Senate as of January 2024. Democrats hold 47 seats (including\n two independent senators who currently align with the Democrats) and\n Republicans hold 53 seats.\n <\/p>\n

    Source – U.S. Senate<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n

    The long and winding road<\/h2>\n

    \n There are three basic paths forward to implementing the Trump\n administration\u2019s economic agenda.\n <\/p>\n

    \n The first is following the complete legislative process laid out above.\n Short of a constitutional amendment, this is the most robust form of\n authorization achievable under U.S. law and would likely be immune from\n most challenges.\n <\/p>\n

    \n For the administration, there are two main drawbacks. First, a bill would\n likely involve significant compromises with Democrats to get past the\n filibuster. Second, the process is slow. Negotiations take time and so do\n the mechanics of committee reviews and parliamentary procedures. For these\n reasons, we think this is unlikely to be the administration\u2019s first\n approach to implementation, although we believe that it will need to\n follow traditional law making for at least some of its agenda.\n <\/p>\n

    \n The second approach is an expedited legislative process called\n reconciliation.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Reconciliation is a complicated procedure that eliminates the filibuster\n on certain types of financial bills, allowing them to pass the Senate on a\n simple majority. The goal is to make sure that critical financial aspects\n of running the government and Treasury are not held hostage by a minority\n party. The Congressional Budget Act lays out key parameters for\n reconciliation bills, including the need for bills to deal with the debt\n limit, spending, or revenue and the limit to one bill per topic every\n fiscal year. Under the Act, high-level budgetary goals are laid out in a\n resolution and individual legislative committees are then tasked with\n amending laws under their jurisdiction to \u201creconcile\u201d the budgetary goals\n with legal reality.\n <\/p>\n

    \n In addition to the above requirements, reconciliation bills are also\n subject to the so-called Byrd Rule. This is a multipronged test to make\n sure the process is not abused. There are several components to the rule,\n but the limitations that most often de-rail the reconciliation process\n are: when committees add amendments outside their legislative mandate;\n when there is no change to taxes, spending, or deficits; or when financial\n changes are only incidental to the legislative proposal. Measuring the\n financial impact of proposed legislation is done by the Congressional\n Budget Office under a process called \u201cscoring.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

    \n In the first instance, the determination of whether or not these Byrd Rule\n requirements are met falls to the Senate Parliamentarian, a non-elected\n advisor to Senate leadership on rules of order. The Parliamentarian\u2019s\n decision can be overturned by the vice president in their capacity as\n leader of the Senate, but that is extremely rare. It has not been done\n since 1975. If the vice president were to overturn the Parliamentarian,\n that action could be countered by a majority of senators who can reinstate\n the Parliamentarian\u2019s ruling.\n <\/p>\n

    \n As a result, if the vice president and Senate Republican majority voted as\n a bloc, it would be possible to ignore the Parliamentarian and use the\n reconciliation process to cram through almost any provision whether or not\n it is financial. In essence, it would amount to overturning the\n filibuster, and we see the same institutional arguments of tradition and\n individual political interest making it unlikely \u2013 but not impossible \u2013 for\n reconciliation to be expanded in this manner.\n <\/p>\n

    \n More likely, we think, is that traditional reconciliation will be a\n component of the administration\u2019s plan \u2013 the benefit of the Congressional\n imprimatur is too valuable to ignore \u2013 but we don\u2019t think that they will be\n able to get all their desired economic proposals into a single bill that\n is acceptable to both House Republicans and fits the reconciliation\n process.\n <\/p>\n

    \n That leaves the third and final approach: executive orders. This is a\n broad term for any instructions from the president to a federal agency to\n undertake a particular action. Executive orders have been used throughout\n U.S. history and have had great impact, e.g., racial segregation in the\n U.S. Armed Forces was ended by executive order, for instance.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Republican and Democrat Presidents have used orders extensively: Ronald\n Reagan relied on them 381 times and Bill Clinton 364 over their respective\n eight years in office. The first Trump administration issued 220 orders in\n his first four years, while Joe Biden\u2019s total was just over 160.\n <\/p>\n

    \n It\u2019s not surprising that presidents like executive orders, since they\n offer the greatest freedom of action and speed \u2013 it\u2019s just writing a letter.\n The drawbacks are twofold. First, there must be a statutory or\n Constitutional justification for the measure, and two, courts give less\n deference to Presidential orders that lack specific Congressional backing.\n <\/p>\n

    \n We don\u2019t think either of these will present major obstacles for the second\n Trump administration and expect a heavy use of executive orders to\n implement policy. Congress has granted the president significant\n \u201cemergency\u201d powers and given the president the discretion to decide if\n there\u2019s an emergency. We think the administration will use that\n discretion, particularly on high-profile policy areas such as immigration\n and tariffs. Orders cannot spend money or change taxes \u2013 those are\n Congressional prerogatives \u2013 but for non-budgetary matters, we expect\n widespread use of executive orders.\n <\/p>\n

    \n The orders can also fill a stop-gap role. With tariffs, for instance, we\n think there\u2019s a reasonable chance the initial implementation will be an\n executive order based on the International Economic Emergency Powers Act\n (IEEPA) with subsequent explicit Congressional authorization under\n reconciliation. That combination would let tariffs be implemented quickly\n and robustly.\n <\/p>\n \n

    Key steps for passing federal legislation<\/h3>\n \n
    \n
    \n \"Key\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n

    \n For policy initiatives without a legislative path forward:\n <\/h3>\n
    \n
    \n \"Executive\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

    \n The exhibit shows the key steps for passing legislation at the federal\n level in the United States. In the House of Representatives, the first\n step is to convince the speaker to bring the bill to the floor. In the\n Senate, the first step is to coordinate senators on a bipartisan basis to\n reach the 60-vote minimum. The House and the Senate negotiate to find\n terms mutually acceptable to Speaker of the House and a supermajority of\n senators. After negotiation, legislative backers confirm the president\n will sign bill. If not, backers count votes in favour. In the unlikely\n event that there is a veto-proof majority, backers attempt to pass the\n bill. In the more likely scenario that there is no veto-proof majority,\n backers negotiate for a compromise bill that satisfies speaker, House\n majority, 60 senators, and the White House.\n <\/p>\n

    \n For policy initiatives without a legislative path forward, the White House\n determines whether there is a legal justification to use an executive\n order. If there is, the administration can issue the executive order and\n prepare for legal challenges. If not, backers redraft their plan to make\n it palatable to Congress as part of a reconciliation bill, with bipartisan\n Senate support, or through the \u201cnuclear option\u201d of eliminating the\n filibuster.\n <\/p>\n

    Source – RBC Wealth Management<\/p>\n \n

    What\u2019s ahead?<\/h2>\n

    \n The U.S. President has significant but not unchecked power to put in to\n practice his vision for the country and the economy. Even with Republican\n majorities in Congress, however, we think the Trump administration will\n ultimately need to negotiate on key portions of its agenda. The use of\n reconciliation and executive orders will allow for relatively fast\n implementation of high-profile immigration and tariff proposals, but the\n broad nature of Trump policy goals will likely require the use of the\n traditional legislative process.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Every administration enters office with aggressive policy goals. But a lot of give-and-take may be needed to turn goals into policy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":13896,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2025-01-24T10:01:25","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[42],"tags":[486,487,488],"rbcwm_content_owner":[390],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[212],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-13895","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-legislation-changes-impacting-equity","tag-legislative-success","tag-trump-administration","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"Every administration enters office with aggressive policy goals. 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