{"id":14149,"date":"2025-05-09T13:35:29","date_gmt":"2025-05-09T17:35:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-asia\/?p=14149"},"modified":"2025-05-09T13:35:30","modified_gmt":"2025-05-09T17:35:30","slug":"the-fed-and-its-dueling-dual-mandate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-asia\/insights\/the-fed-and-its-dueling-dual-mandate","title":{"rendered":"The Fed and its dueling dual mandate"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\n In no uncertain terms \u2013 which may be welcomed in a world of almost nothing\n but uncertainty \u2013 the Fed\u2019s meeting this week was largely inconsequential.\n <\/p>\n

\n But there were some minor developments that speak to larger themes that we\n think are worth exploring.\n <\/p>\n

\n In newly added language to its official policy statement, the Federal\n Reserve Board noted that, \u201cThe Committee is attentive to the risks to both\n sides of its dual mandate and judges that the risks of higher unemployment\n and higher inflation have risen.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

\n Fed Chair Jerome Powell went further in his prepared remarks to note that,\n \u201cIf the large increases in tariffs that have been announced are sustained,\n they are likely to generate a rise in inflation, a slowdown in economic\n growth, and an increase in unemployment.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

\n This theme, of course, is also increasingly being reflected in a wide\n swath of analyst forecasts. The first chart shows how far RBC Capital\n Markets\u2019 economists expect inflation to deviate from the Fed\u2019s 2.0 percent annual\n target, and how far unemployment is seen rising beyond the Fed\u2019s 4.2 percent\n estimate of the \u201cfull employment\u201d rate of unemployment.\n <\/p>\n \n

\n Inflation and unemployment both seen exceeding Fed goals, but inflation to\n a greater degree\n <\/h3>\n
\n
\n \"Inflation\n

\n The chart shows how much RBC Capital Markets expects inflation to\n deviate from the Fed’s 2.0 percent annual target and how much unemployment\n could exceed the Fed’s estimated 4.2 percent “full employment” rate.\n Inflation is expected to exceed the Fed target by up to 1.4 percentage\n points in Q4 2025, and unemployment by up to 0.6 percentage points.\n <\/p>\n

    \n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Inflation gap\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Jobless gap\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

    \n Source – RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; RBC Capital Markets\n forecasts for the Consumer Price Index and unemployment rate as of\n April 2025\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n

    Breaking the tension<\/h2>\n

    \n As Powell noted multiple times during his press conference, the prospects\n of both higher inflation and higher unemployment create \u201ctension\u201d with\n respect to achieving the Fed\u2019s dual mandate of price stability and maximum\n employment, and how it manages its monetary policy tools in doing so.\n <\/p>\n

    \n So, the question then is which mandate will the Fed prioritize when it\n next decides to act?\n <\/p>\n

    \n Our current thinking is relatively straightforward: The inflationary\n impacts of tariffs will hit first, and to a greater degree, which has\n kept \u2013 and will likely keep \u2013 the Fed on hold until the September meeting. At\n which point rising unemployment, if realized, will trigger the first of a\n series of rate cuts \u2013 we think three this year followed by three next\n year \u2013 even in the face of elevated inflation. But inflation begins to fade,\n and unemployment stabilizes, through 2026.\n <\/p>\n

    \n We would hope it goes without saying that even in the best of times\n forecasts are just that, forecasts. At the moment, any forecast likely\n isn\u2019t much better than anyone\u2019s worst guess. But this seems like a simple,\n and fair, framework to be working with.\n <\/p>\n \n

    Are inflation expectations dragging anchor?<\/h2>\n

    \n Though the Fed noted that current economic growth remains solid and\n inflation only slightly elevated, the expectations component of both is\n the next theme which has been featured at recent meetings. Powell has\n routinely stated that the Fed\u2019s job is to keep the one-time inflationary\n impact of tariffs from morphing into a persistent inflation problem.\n <\/p>\n

    \n As the second chart shows, that objective appears at risk. Consumer\n inflation expectations have been rising sharply since the beginning of the\n year. Though Powell downplayed this at the March meeting as \u201ctoo soon to\n draw conclusion,\u201d four months nearly makes a trend, in our view, with\n preliminary data for May due next week potentially extending it.\n <\/p>\n \n

    Decades of relative stability in inflation expectations upended<\/h3>\n

    Expected change inh prices during next five to 10 years<\/h4>\n
    \n
    \n \"Expected\n

    \n The line chart shows long-run consumer inflation expectations over the\n past 25 years. Expectations were relatively stable around the 2.8 percent\n median for most of the period. In recent months, however, expectations\n for inflation have jumped to 4.4 percent, significantly higher than at any\n time in the past 25 years.\n <\/p>\n

      \n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n Consumer long-run inflation expectations\n <\/li>\n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n Median\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

      \n Source – RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg, University of Michigan\n Surveys of Consumers\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

      \n This dynamic shouldn\u2019t be ignored. In recent decades, the Fed largely\n achieved its goal of \u201canchoring\u201d inflation expectations. By and large,\n expectations, even through the worst of the recent inflation wave, held\n within a tight range. This break, if sustained, could signal a material\n shift in consumer psyche as it relates to prices.\n <\/p>\n

      \n We wonder whether, if this round of tariff-induced inflation fears wasn\u2019t\n coming off the back of an actual inflation wave which has only recently\n appeared to trough, it might prove to be a one-off episode. But coming so\n soon after an inflationary cycle could only fuel another where we could\n see the cycle of businesses raising prices, workers seeking wage gains to\n offset higher prices, and so on and so forth.\n <\/p>\n

      \n Rising inflation expectations also pose economic risks \u2013 if consumers fear\n higher prices ahead, they may spend now, and that could be what is\n currently holding up economic activity. But amid rising questions about\n the consumers\u2019 capacity to spend and growing fears about their\n willingness, higher consumption now could mean lower consumption later.\n <\/p>\n \n

      Wait and see what may be<\/h2>\n

      \n While the Fed meeting largely failed to move markets in any direction, the\n announcement of a framework trade deal with the UK today has done so. The\n S&P 500 has pushed higher toward 5,700, while the benchmark 10-year\n U.S. Treasury yield has risen to 4.33 percent.\n <\/p>\n

      \n We have maintained our Market Weight recommendation for both U.S. equities\n and U.S. fixed income, but recent volatility and market uncertainty\n present a precarious setup. As of April, RBC Capital Markets projected a\n year-end S&P 500 closing level of 5,550 \u2013 nearly 3.0 percent downside from\n current trading levels. At the same time, RBC Capital Markets forecasts\n the 10-year Treasury yield to end the year at 3.75 percent. Bond price\n appreciation should the yield decline to that level, on top of coupons\n earned, would imply a total return of just over 7.0 percent.\n <\/p>\n

      \n Should tariff and trade fears continue to ease, there is perhaps some\n modest upside to both of those forecasts. But in an environment such as\n this, perhaps it\u2019s best just to follow the Fed\u2019s lead and simply wait and\n see.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Questions regarding the Federal Reserve\u2019s price stability and maximum employment mandates abound. We look at what investors should know at a time when there is a lack of clarity regarding the central bank\u2019s next moves.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":14153,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2025-05-08T13:24:17","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[42],"tags":[320,513,106,485,475],"rbcwm_content_owner":[390],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[212],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-14149","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-consumer-inflation","tag-employee-mandates","tag-inflation","tag-tariff","tag-tariffs","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"Questions regarding the Federal Reserve\u2019s price stability and maximum employment mandates abound. We look at what investors should know at a time when there is a lack of clarity regarding the central bank\u2019s next moves.","rbcwm_post_author":[92],"rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":[],"disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[8376],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"\nThe Fed and its dueling dual mandate<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Questions regarding the Federal Reserve\u2019s price stability and maximum employment mandates abound. 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