{"id":14167,"date":"2025-05-22T16:51:58","date_gmt":"2025-05-22T20:51:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-asia\/?p=14167"},"modified":"2025-05-22T16:51:59","modified_gmt":"2025-05-22T20:51:59","slug":"equity-market-roller-coaster-how-is-your-stomach","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-asia\/insights\/equity-market-roller-coaster-how-is-your-stomach","title":{"rendered":"Equity market roller coaster: How is your stomach?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>By Kelly Bogdanova<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\n      Following an 18.9 percent plunge due to substantial tariffs, the S&amp;P\n      500 shot up 19.7 percent from April 8 through May 19 after very high\n      tariffs were paused. Since then, it has backed off some but is still above\n      the levels before big tariffs were levied and is now 4.5 percent below the\n      mid-February all-time high, as of midday trading on May 22.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Such a large rally over such a short time frame hasn\u2019t happened since the\n      rebound following the most acute stage of the pandemic crisis in March\n      2020. And this one has eclipsed a similar move that occurred right after\n      the global financial crisis low in March 2009.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      If you\u2019ve had motion sickness along the way that\u2019s understandable, but\n      hopefully the market\u2019s rapid ascent has provided some relief.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>What happened on the wild ride higher<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      <strong\n        >The market rallied mainly because the Trump administration blinked\n        twice on ultra-high tariffs: <\/strong\n      >First when it paused the very large reciprocal tariffs for 90 days on\n      April 9, and then when it temporarily rolled back tariffs on China to 30\n      percent from 145 percent and China responded similarly on May 12.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      We doubt ultra-high tariffs will return for the bulk of key U.S. trading\n      partners because a unique coalition that strongly opposes high tariffs\n      effectively vetoed the Trump team\u2019s initial plan. This motley crew\n      included investors in financial markets \u2013 especially large U.S. Treasury\n      investors inside and outside of the country \u2013 and corporate executives\n      including heads of financial and retail giants, small business leaders,\n      business lobbyists, the bipartisan Washington foreign policy\n      establishment, and foreign governments including key U.S. allies. Even a\n      diverse group of Republican senators who became worried about potential\n      midterm election repercussions joined the fray.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      <strong\n        >Following the Trump team\u2019s tariff retreat, RBC Economics\u2019 estimate of\n        the average U.S. tariff rate dropped to 13 percent from the 24 percent\n        level<\/strong\n      >\n      where it stood just after the very large reciprocal tariffs were\n      announced.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      <strong\n        >The tariff U-turn prompted Wall Street economists to ease back from\n        stagflationary and recessionary forecasts.<\/strong\n      >\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      RBC Economics raised its full-year 2025 GDP growth forecast slightly to\n      1.3% from 1.0% and lowered its inflation forecast. It now projects core\n      consumer inflation (excludes food and energy) will peak at 3.3 percent in\n      Q3 2025, lower than the previous 4.3 percent forecast for the same\n      quarter.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      <strong\n        >Better-than-feared April inflation data and, importantly,\n        better-than-expected Q1 corporate earnings also boosted the\n        market.<\/strong\n      >\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      <strong>Furthermore, short-term trading dynamics were upended.<\/strong>\n      The initial strong bounce in April, combined with the U.S.-China tariff\n      de-escalation in May, seemed to prompt a big wave of short covering among\n      fast-money hedge funds. We also detected that the \u201csell America\u201d mentality\n      dissipated notably, especially among foreign investors, and quickly\n      shifted to a FOMO mentality \u2013 fear of missing out on the U.S. equity rally.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>Why Dramamine is still a good idea<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      <strong>Unfortunately, the tariff saga isn\u2019t over yet. <\/strong>The\n      president recently indicated that clarifications on tariff rates for 100+\n      nations are forthcoming soon, and there have been mixed messages from his\n      team about the pause on reciprocal tariffs. A durable trade\/tariff\n      framework with China still needs to be negotiated, and there are risks the\n      U.S. could erect more non-tariff barriers against China. There are also\n      many trade and tariff details to sort out with the EU, America\u2019s largest\n      trading partner.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      If the Trump administration reverts to a hard line in any of these\n      directions, we think the same motley crew of high-tariff opponents will\n      push back again.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      But even if the average U.S. tariff rate remains near 13 percent, there\n      are still plenty of unknowns about tariff consequences for the economy and\n      corporate profits. This represents the highest average tariff level since\n      the 1930s and is well above the 2.4 percent level of 2024.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      RBC Global Asset Management Inc. Chief Economist Eric Lascelles notes that\n      \u201cmost of the economic pain associated with tariffs does not immediately\n      appear.\u201d U.S. recession risks have declined but remain elevated (see more\n      about this on page 3). Lascelles also argues that it could be reasonable\n      to assume the negative impact that lower GDP growth typically has on\n      corporate earnings growth could be exacerbated with tariffs.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      <strong\n        >Also, the tax and budget bill currently working its way through\n        Congress leaves some things to be desired, in our view.\n      <\/strong>\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      We think the Treasury market is already flashing warning signs about the\n      bill\u2019s projected impact on the federal deficit and is scrutinizing the\n      budget deficit issue much more closely than in previous years.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      The stock market seems to view the extension of the Trump 2017 tax cuts,\n      pro-business measures, and new tax cuts in the package quite positively;\n      however, it probably wouldn\u2019t be immune from any further bond market\n      discontent about outsized future budget deficits.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      At an economic forum in Qatar, Steve Mnuchin, Trump\u2019s treasury secretary\n      in his first term, put it this way: \u201cThe budget deficit is a larger\n      concern to me than the trade deficit. So, I\u2019m on the side of, I hope we do\n      get more spending cuts \u2013 something that\u2019s very important.\u201d\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>Time to clean out unwanted positions<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      RBC Capital Markets, LLC\u2019s Head of U.S. Equity Strategy Lori Calvasina\n      acknowledged recently that there are scenarios that could lead to the\n      S&amp;P 500 finishing the year higher than her current 5,550 price target.\n      (She reduced her target for the second time this year after the big\n      reciprocal tariffs were announced on April 2 and is currently evaluating\n      her various models in light of recent developments.) This target is about\n      5.4 percent lower than the market\u2019s level as of this writing.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      <strong\n        >Calvasina notes that some of her updated modeling work indicates the\n        S&amp;P 500 could end up around 5,700\u20135,900 by year end. <\/strong\n      >This is based on RBC Economics\u2019 improved economic forecasts and updated\n      rates estimates following the tariff retreat, and incorporates a range of\n      S&amp;P 500 earnings projections for 2025 \u2013 her own $258 per share estimate\n      and the Bloomberg consensus forecast of $265 per share \u2013 among other\n      metrics.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      The 5,700\u20135,900 zone represents roughly flat returns for the year and is\n      fairly consistent with the median annual historical return during periods\n      of low GDP growth periods of 1.1 percent\u20132.0 percent based on analysis by\n      Calvasina and her team.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      We think the rally, while stomach-churning for some, has been a gift. We\n      recommend using it to clean out any unwanted equity positions in\n      portfolios.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Our overall positioning advice hasn\u2019t changed: We think the high levels of\n      uncertainty argue for holding U.S. equities in portfolios up to but not\n      beyond a Market Weight level.\n    <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The U.S. equity market has taken investors on a bumpy roller coaster ride, leaving some of us queasy. We discuss what drove the rally, lingering risks, and the market\u2019s potential from here.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":14168,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2025-05-22T16:45:16","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[42],"tags":[514,448,485,475],"rbcwm_content_owner":[390],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[212],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-14167","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-election-repercussions","tag-equity-market","tag-tariff","tag-tariffs","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"The U.S. equity market has taken investors on a bumpy roller coaster ride, leaving some of us queasy. We discuss what drove the rally, lingering risks, and the market\u2019s potential from here.","rbcwm_post_author":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":[],"disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[8376],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.8 (Yoast SEO v26.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Equity market roller coaster: How is your stomach?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The U.S. equity market has taken investors on a bumpy roller coaster ride, leaving some of us queasy. 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