{"id":14426,"date":"2025-07-25T12:23:51","date_gmt":"2025-07-25T16:23:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-asia\/?p=14426"},"modified":"2025-07-25T12:23:52","modified_gmt":"2025-07-25T16:23:52","slug":"a-market-that-costs-a-pretty-penny","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-asia\/insights\/a-market-that-costs-a-pretty-penny","title":{"rendered":"A market that costs a pretty penny"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Kelly Bogdanova<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n With the S&P 500 marching higher since the spring tariff scare, the\n market\u2019s valuation has risen nearly in tandem, pushing the\n price-to-earnings (P\/E) ratio back up to a level that we view as pricey.\n <\/p>\n

\n The S&P 500 has rallied 27.6 percent since the April 8 low and 8.1\n percent year to date, as of yesterday\u2019s close.\n <\/p>\n

\n And since the April 8 low, the market\u2019s 12-month forward P\/E has jumped\n from 18.0x to 22.3x, almost a 24 percent increase. This valuation level is\n above the 18.6x 10-year average and is much higher than the 16.5x average\n since 1990.\n <\/p>\n

\n It\u2019s not just the Information Technology sector nor Magnificent 7 stocks\n that carry elevated valuations. Even when these two areas are excluded,\n valuations look high.\n <\/p>\n \n

\n The market looks pricey even when some of the high P\/E areas are excluded\n <\/h3>\n

\n S&P 500 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratios based on Bloomberg\n consensus earnings estimates\n <\/h4>\n
\n
\n \"S&P\n

\n The line chart shows the forward price-to-earnings (P\/E) ratio for the\n S&P 500, S&P 500 excluding the Information Technology sector, and S&P\n 500 excluding the Magnificent 7 stocks since July 2018. At the\n starting point, the valuations were as follows: S&P 500 16.89x, S&P\n 500 ex-Tech 17.1x, S&P 500 ex-Mag 7 15.9x. All three drifted up\n through late 2019. Soon thereafter they all rose sharply, peaking in\n mid-2020. Then all three traded lower through September 2022,\n bottoming in the 13.9x to 15.2x range, with the S&P 500 ex-Mag 7 the\n lowest and the S&P 500 the highest, and the S&P 500 ex-Tech in the\n middle of this range. Since then, they\u2019ve all rebounded to high\n levels. The most recent data points from June 30, 2025 were as\n follows: S&P 500 22.5x, S&P 500 ex-Tech 20.4x, and S&P 500 ex-Mag 7\n 20.3x. Throughout much of this time, the S&P 500 valuation has been\n the highest.\n <\/p>\n

    \n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n S&P 500\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n S&P 500 ex Information Technology sector\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n S&P 500 ex “Magnificent 7” stocks*\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

    \n *Magnificent 7 stocks are Microsoft, Apple, NVIDIA, Alphabet,\n Amazon.com, Meta Platforms, and Tesla.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Source – RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg Intelligence; month-end data\n through 6\/30\/25 (S&P 500 18.0x P\/E on April 8, 2025 is not shown\n in the monthly datastream)\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n

    Key drivers of P\/E expansion<\/h2>\n

    \n From our vantage point, there are logical, rational reasons why valuations\n have expanded:\n <\/p>\n

    \n Fears about the Trump administration\u2019s tariff policies have\n diminished.<\/strong\n >\n Market participants seem to believe the worst of the tariff announcements\n are in the rearview mirror.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Domestic economic data has remained fairly sturdy.<\/strong>\n However, investors shouldn\u2019t be complacent about this. RBC economists\n still anticipate tariffs will constrain economic growth and boost\n inflation during the second half of this year and into 2026, at least.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Equity market participants have embraced the One Big Beautiful Bill\n Act\u2019s\n taxpayer-friendly and pro-business provisions<\/a\n >.<\/strong\n >\n The stock market has largely ignored the bill\u2019s negative impact on the\n federal deficit. We think these risks are showing up within the U.S.\n Treasury market, at the long end of the yield curve. The 30-year bond\n yield has been elevated near five percent for the past few months.\n <\/p>\n

    \n \n The corporate profits outlook \u2013 the mother\u2019s milk of the stock market \u2013 is\n still viewed positively. <\/strong\n >The Q2 earnings reporting season has been fine-to-good so far, in our\n assessment. The S&P 500 2026 consensus earnings growth forecast of\n 12.6 percent has given the bulls something to lean on, although we still\n question whether this scenario will play out given the economic\n vulnerabilities.\n <\/p>\n

    \n The artificial intelligence (AI) buildout is a key factor.<\/strong\n >\n AI is now viewed by many market participants as a transformational\n technology \u2013 something at least akin to the advent of the personal computer\n and the development of the internet, or even potentially comparable to the\n industrial revolution and railway buildout over 100 years ago. Chinese\n academic Wang Wen, professor and dean at Renmin University in Beijing,\n goes further. He likens AI to one of the biggest changes in the past four\n centuries.\n <\/p>\n

    \n The AI transformation is advancing at its fastest pace \u2013 by far \u2013 in the U.S.\n and China. So it should be no surprise that the U.S. market is benefitting\n from having relatively high exposure to the emerging technology.\n <\/p>\n

    \n AI is not just impacting valuations of technology firms that have been at\n its epicenter for the past few years. Some companies in the Industrials,\n Financials, and Utilities sectors have seen their stock valuations expand\n in the past year partly due to their potential ability to leverage AI to\n cut costs and\/or improve their goods and services. It\u2019s reasonable to\n think stocks in other sectors could benefit from AI in the future.\n <\/p>\n \n

    A poor market-timing tool<\/h2>\n

    \n For individual investors, the market\u2019s valuation \u2013 whether expensive,\n inexpensive, or something in between \u2013 has historically been a poor\n market-timing barometer.\n <\/p>\n

    \n P\/E ratios and other valuation metrics can stay elevated for longer than\n one might think is reasonable, like they did during the technology bubble\n more than 25 years ago. Conversely, they can fluctuate near low levels for\n long periods, as was the case for years after the tech bubble burst and\n especially following the global financial crisis.\n <\/p>\n

    \n We think it\u2019s unwise to make buy or sell decisions solely or even mainly\n based on valuations. Instead, we recommend using valuations as one of many\n factors that can help determine how much (or little) equity exposure is\n suitable in a portfolio at any given time.\n <\/p>\n \n

    Diversification becomes more relevant<\/h2>\n

    \n Even though there have been valid reasons for the recent valuation\n expansion, and we\u2019re mindful valuations could remain elevated throughout\n the duration of this bull market cycle like they have at times in the\n past, the current P\/E ratio gives us pause. It\u2019s one reason we continue to\n recommend holding U.S. equity exposure at no higher than a Market Weight\n level in portfolios.\n <\/p>\n

    \n There are two additional reasons that make us reluctant to chase the\n market and position more aggressively: Potential economic vulnerabilities\n due to tariffs and the possibility that second-half 2025 and full-year\n 2026 earnings results could fall short of current consensus forecasts.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Among the S&P 500 sectors that are reasonably priced compared to their\n 10-year averages, we favour Real Estate and Health Care. At the other end\n of the spectrum, in the \u201cpricier\u201d category, we still like Information\n Technology but would not be adding exposure at current levels.\n <\/p>\n \n

    Some sectors seem rather overvalued while others do not<\/h3>\n

    \n Price-to-earnings ratios based on 12-month forward Bloomberg consensus\n earnings estimates\n <\/h4>\n
    \n
    \n \"Price-to-earnings\n

    \n The chart shows data for the current price-to-earnings (P\/E) ratios\n and 10-year average P\/Es for the S&P 500 and each of the 11 sectors\n within it. The data are as follows, in that order (current, 10-year\n average). S&P 500: 22.3x, 18.6x. Communication Services: 19.9x, 16.7x.\n Consumer Discretionary: 28.5x, 24.3x. Consumer Staples: 21.8x, 19.9x.\n Energy: 14.9x, 24.1x. Financials: 17.0x, 13.8x. Health Care: 16.2x,\n 16.4x. Industrials: 24.9x 19.0x. Information Technology: 29.6x, 22.0x.\n Materials: 20.8x, 17.6x. Real Estate: 19.9x, 20.1x. Utilities: 18.3x,\n 17.6x.\n <\/p>\n

      \n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n Current\n <\/li>\n
    • \n
      \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n 10-year average\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

      \n Source – RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; data as of 7\/23\/25\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

      \n The S&P 500\u2019s stretched valuation is also an argument for\n diversification into markets outside of the United States.\n <\/p>\n

      \n Valuations of European and Asian developed markets and Asian emerging\n markets are near or slightly below their 10-year averages. We think\n investors who have traditionally held high levels of U.S. equities\n exposure in portfolios should make some room for investments in these\n markets as well.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      We discuss key factors that have pushed the S&P 500\u2019s valuation back up to lofty levels and how investors should weigh this in the portfolio decision-making process.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":14427,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2025-07-24T12:02:57","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[42],"tags":[538,247,539,540],"rbcwm_content_owner":[390],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[212],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-14426","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-big-beautiful-act","tag-health-care","tag-one-big-beautiful-bill-act","tag-real-estate","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"We discuss key factors that have pushed the S&P 500\u2019s valuation back up to lofty levels and how investors should weigh this in the portfolio decision-making process.","rbcwm_post_author":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":[],"disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[8376],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"\nA market that costs a pretty penny<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"We discuss key factors that have pushed the S&P 500\u2019s valuation back up to lofty levels and how investors should weigh this in the portfolio decision-making process.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-asia\/insights\/a-market-that-costs-a-pretty-penny\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A market that costs a pretty penny\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"We discuss key factors that have pushed the S&P 500\u2019s valuation back up to lofty levels and how investors should weigh this in the portfolio decision-making process.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-asia\/insights\/a-market-that-costs-a-pretty-penny\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"RBC Wealth Management - 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