{"id":15077,"date":"2025-11-14T12:25:26","date_gmt":"2025-11-14T17:25:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-asia\/?p=15077"},"modified":"2025-11-14T12:25:27","modified_gmt":"2025-11-14T17:25:27","slug":"power-tools","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-asia\/insights\/power-tools","title":{"rendered":"Power tools"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Atul Bhatia, CFA<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n In recent months, the Trump administration has sought or executed on\n actions that leave the U.S. government more closely intertwined with\n private enterprises. These range from direct investment in select U.S.\n chipmakers and mining companies to revenue participation in exports of\n strategic assets. Less directly, the administration has sought to use\n tariffs to influence supply chain management across the entire private\n sector.\n <\/p>\n

\n Decisions like these have been criticized as \u201cunprecedented\u201d and\n \u201cgovernment overreach\u201d by commentators on both the left and right of the\n political spectrum.\n <\/p>\n

\n In our view, those comments emphasize labels over reality, ignore\n important context, and \u2013 most importantly \u2013 focus too heavily on today\u2019s\n concerns while ignoring the significant implications for future government\n action.\n <\/p>\n \n

Unprecedented? Overreach?<\/h2>\n

Strictly speaking, we don\u2019t see these actions as unprecedented.<\/p>\n

\n The U.S. has taken stakes in private entities in the past, most recently\n in response to the global financial crisis, and has even directly operated\n private assets, such as President Harry S. Truman\u2019s decision to take over\n steel mills during the Korean War.\n <\/p>\n

\n There are fewer direct analogues for the Trump administration\u2019s idea to\n take a cut of sales on newly licensed chip exports to China, but that\u2019s\n largely a matter of form. For decades, the U.S. government has used\n overseas arms sales to bring down the per unit cost of key weapons systems\n used by the U.S. military. It\u2019s a different structure from a\n revenue-sharing arrangement, but the bottom line for the U.S. Treasury is\n the same: more export licences, more cash in the bank.\n <\/p>\n

\n The question of government overreach is more political than economic.\n Reasonable people can certainly come down on both sides of the economic\n and strategic tradeoffs involved with government ownership of productive\n assets in key sectors.\n <\/p>\n \n

An owner without title<\/h2>\n

\n More broadly, however, we think the overreach question mischaracterizes\n the existing relationship between the federal government and private\n enterprise in the U.S. In particular, it overlooks the many ways in which\n long-standing government powers are tantamount to partial U.S. ownership\n of many private endeavors.\n <\/p>\n

\n Take individual investors who buy stocks. For those shareholders, the\n rights and privileges largely boil down to percentage participation in the\n company\u2019s earnings, a right to vote on major corporate decisions, and a\n right to vote for the board of directors, which hires management and\n protects shareholder interests.\n <\/p>\n

\n Is the U.S. government really in a very different position? Similarities\n abound:\n <\/p>\n

    \n
  • \n Economics:<\/strong> The U.S. gets a cut of earnings in the form\n of corporate taxes, and it gets that in cash. Private shareholders only\n receive dividends if the board of directors decides to pay them.\n <\/li>\n
  • \n Major decisions:<\/strong> Federal officials don\u2019t directly vote\n on a merger or acquisition, but they have significant ability to reject\n or modify deals under antitrust rules.\n <\/li>\n
  • \n Policy influence:<\/strong> The government doesn\u2019t currently\n appoint management, but we\u2019d argue that the U.S. can use its regulatory\n and fiscal tools to heavily influence corporate strategy regardless of\n who is CEO. Set the rules of the game in a particular way, and you can\n dictate what the players will do.\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

    \n Add it all up, and the U.S. may not have an explicit stake in private\n companies, but the set of rights and powers it does have at least puts the\n government in the ballpark of ownership.\n <\/p>\n \n

    The more things stay the same, the more they change<\/h2>\n

    \n As a result, the practical difference between the Trump administration\u2019s\n policies<\/em> and the existing government framework is one of degree, not kind.\n But when it comes to process<\/em>, that\u2019s where we see what we believe is a\n radical change.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Prior administrations used relatively slow-moving tools with broad input.\n The current administration, however, has used broad interpretations of\n existing legislative authority to make unilateral policy moves. In many\n cases, we believe, this essentially boils down to the president choosing\n to exert control over a private company or contract. The moves are swift,\n so-called bureaucratic speed bumps are flattened out, and quick, decisive\n action is the hallmark.\n <\/p>\n

    \n The immediate impact of these moves may very well be a positive. When\n evaluating any individual move, it comes down to the quality of the idea.\n If it\u2019s good, moving faster works. If it\u2019s not good, faster implementation\n just means faster problems.\n <\/p>\n

    \n But this type of centralized ad hoc decision-making raises two major,\n related structural concerns.\n <\/p>\n

    \n First, they can\u2019t all be winners. Even a sound decision-maker is going to\n have an occasional stumble, and without an institutional control, the bad\n decisions can flow just as easily as the good ones. Japan\u2019s Ministry of\n International Trade and Industry achieved fame in the U.S. for its role in\n promoting Japan\u2019s auto industry. Less appreciated is the agency\u2019s attempt\n to block Sony from using transistor technology, raising the specter of a\n Walkman-less 1980s.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Second, even if one likes the current policy mix, the nature of democracy\n is changing political leadership. The next administration can use the same\n techniques to switch goals and promote contradictory policy.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Take the nearly completed wind farms that the administration effectively\n cancelled. Whatever one\u2019s views on wind power, the nearly worst-case\n scenario for the economy is to make the investment but never reap the\n benefits. In a similar vein, future administrations could cancel pipeline\n or bridge permits. The only thing economically worse than a bridge to\n nowhere is half a bridge to nowhere.\n <\/p>\n \n

    Getting off the merry-go-round<\/h2>\n

    We see four ways the economic policy framework can evolve from here:<\/p>\n

      \n
    • \n New business as usual: <\/strong>If this process becomes the new\n normal, we see headwinds to large-scale economic investment.\n <\/li>\n
    • \n SCOTUS \u201cone and done\u201d: <\/strong>It\u2019s notable that many of the\n president\u2019s actions have only proceeded based on the Supreme Court\n allowing him to act while legal challenges move through the lower court\n system. If the Court ultimately rules against the administration, this\n could largely foreclose future administrations using these tools.\n <\/li>\n
    • \n Return to Lochner<\/em>:<\/strong> In the early 20th\n century, the Court was in its so-called Lochner<\/em> era, where it intervened\n consistently in economic policy. The period is now widely viewed as\n judicial overreach, but the Court retains the power to return to that\n framework and pass through only economic decisions it agrees with.\n <\/li>\n
    • \n Congressional action to constrain executive power:<\/strong>\n While in many ways the most constitutionally robust, we think this\n outcome is effectively impossible given current political realities.\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n \n

      Where to next?<\/h2>\n

      \n For investors, the issues raised by centralized decision-making are easy\n to ignore for now, in our opinion. There is uncertainty on how the Court\n will rule, and the long-term consequences will depend both on electoral\n results and how future presidents choose to exercise \u2013 or not \u2013 the authority\n the current administration claims. We remain concerned, however, on the\n sustainability and advisability of the current path, and believe the\n typical legislative and regulatory process offers important safeguards.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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