{"id":1510,"date":"2023-07-14T10:45:00","date_gmt":"2023-07-14T14:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-asia\/2023\/06\/05\/worlds-apart-risks-and-opportunities-as-deglobalization-looms\/"},"modified":"2024-07-29T15:48:24","modified_gmt":"2024-07-29T19:48:24","slug":"worlds-apart-risks-and-opportunities-as-deglobalization-looms","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-asia\/insights\/worlds-apart-risks-and-opportunities-as-deglobalization-looms","title":{"rendered":"Worlds apart: Risks and opportunities as deglobalization looms"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>       <i>         This is the first article from the &#8220;Worlds apart&#8221; series, which explores the trend away from globalization and its ramifications for investors, economies and financial markets. The following is an executive summary of          <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/documents\/insights\/global-insight-special-report-deglobalization.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"Worlds apart: Risks and opportunities as deglobalization looms\">the full article <\/a>         .       <\/i>     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-geopolitical-power-struggles-shouldn-t-be-underestimated\">Geopolitical power struggles shouldn\u2019t be underestimated<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>       Globalization boosted economic growth, corporate earnings, and stock       prices for decades. But in recent years globalization has stalled out. It       seems at risk of breaking down into deglobalization as geopolitical       tensions persist.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>         The U.S.-China relationship has become mired in mistrust, security         concerns, and disputes related to Taiwan.       <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>         Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries no longer view the U.S.         as their principal ally. They have forged close, formal strategic         partnerships with China.       <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>         Two entities in which China, Russia, and India play key roles \u2013 the BRICS         association and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) \u2013 are         expanding their memberships, and countries within them are deepening         their ties. Their economic influence is growing.       <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-brics-gdp-surpassed-g7-gdp-in-2021-and-the-trend-is-expected-to-continue\">       BRICS GDP surpassed G7 GDP in 2021, and the trend is expected to continue     <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-share-of-global-gdp-based-on-purchasing-power-parity-in-u-s-dollars\">       Share of global GDP based on purchasing power parity in U.S. dollars*     <\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"row mb-4\">\n      <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\"\n          src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/8\/2023\/06\/worlds-apart-en-chart-1.png\"\n          alt=\"Share of global GDP based on purchasing power parity in U.S. dollars\"\n          class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\"\n          aria-describedby=\"chart1desc\"\n        \/>\n        <p\n          class=\"sr-only\"\n          id=\"chart1desc\"\n        >\n          The line chart shows the proportion of global GDP based on purchasing\n          power parity for G7 and BRICS countries annually from 1995 through\n          2028; data from 2023 through 2028 are based on IMF projections. In\n          1995, there was a wide gap between the two groups with the G7 at 45%\n          and BRICS at 17%. The G7&#8217;s GDP as a proportion of global GDP has\n          declined meaningfully since then, while the BRICS countries&#8217; GDP as a\n          proportion of global GDP has steadily climbed. The IMF projects this\n          trend will continue through its forecast period of 2028. The G7 and\n          BRICS share of global GDP was equal in 2020 at 31%. Thereafter G7 had\n          declined to 30.4% and BRICS increased to 31.6% by 2022. By 2028, the\n          IMF projects the G7 will decline to 27.8% and BRICS will rise to\n          33.6%.\n        <\/p>\n        <ul class=\"list-links list-spaced\">\n          <li>\n            <strong>G7: <\/strong>U.S., Japan, Germany, France, UK, Italy, Canada\n          <\/li>\n          <li>\n            <strong>BRICS: <\/strong>Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa\n          <\/li>\n        <\/ul>\n        <ul class=\"rbc-legend rbc-legend-inline\">\n          <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">\n            <div class=\"rbc-legend-line c-dark-blue-tint-1\"><\/div>\n            G7 countries\n          <\/li>\n          <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">\n            <div class=\"rbc-legend-line c-warm-yellow\"><\/div>\n            BRICS countries\n          <\/li>\n        <\/ul>\n        <p class=\"footnote\">\n          * Data from 2023 through 2028 are IMF projections.\n        <\/p>\n        <p class=\"disclaimer\">\n          Source &#8211; RBC Wealth Management, IMF database; data as of 5\/17\/23\n        <\/p>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The sticking point for the West<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>       BRICS and the SCO seek to form a \u201cmultipolar world\u201d wherein a number of       countries would play global leadership roles.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>         Many countries within BRICS and the SCO view the U.S.-led Western         hegemony as a relic of the past or something that will be soon.       <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>         They have stated the world has moved \u2013 or is moving \u2013 beyond the post-Cold         War era when U.S. leadership reigned supreme, and Washington and its         allies set the terms.       <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>         BRICS and SCO countries have a lot of economic, commodity, and rare         earth mineral leverage to assert a more collective, multipolar approach.       <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>         But we highly doubt the U.S. and its allies will quietly acquiesce to         this framework. No power that has sat in the driver\u2019s seat for over 30         years would willingly relinquish its dominant role.       <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>         Therefore, the geopolitical power struggle will likely persist and         intensify.       <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why it matters<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>       We think major shifts in relations between great powers change the       investment environment.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>         The geopolitical power struggle creates risks for economic growth,         markets, and sectors \u2013 and therefore for portfolios.       <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>But it should also provide investment opportunities.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>         Many countries are attempting to develop technological security, energy         security, food security, and health security initiatives \u2013 all of which         dovetail with national security.       <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>         China has been pursuing this sovereign development strategy for many         years with economic planning and significant R&amp;D spending.       <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>         The U.S. and its allies have recently begun to encourage and incentivize         onshoring of manufacturing and \u201cfriend-shoring\u201d (i.e., developing and         strengthening supply chains among allied and like-minded countries).       <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>         These initiatives should benefit a number of industries, including         advanced semiconductor technologies, artificial intelligence,         cybersecurity, critical minerals and rare earths, energy transition         technologies, water resource technologies, select industrial and         infrastructure technologies, military and space equipment,         biotechnology, and life sciences.       <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Protectionism appears to be back<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>       There are, however, downsides to the drift away from globalization. We       view onshoring and friend-shoring as old-fashioned protectionism with new,       more palatable names.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>         If protectionism persists over the long term \u2013 with more trade barriers,         tariffs, and sanctions piling up \u2013 we believe the economic drawbacks would         eventually come home to roost.       <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>         Many companies could be faced with higher expenses, more friction within         supply chains, and more difficulty sourcing select commodities.       <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>         The International Monetary Fund\u2019s chief wrote, \u201cThe longer-term cost of         trade fragmentation alone could range from 0.2 percent of global output         in a limited fragmentation scenario to almost seven percent in a severe         scenario \u2013 roughly equivalent to the combined annual output of Germany and         Japan.\u201d       <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>         Most sources agree that if technology cooperation between the U.S. and         China is cut off to a great extent, there could be more damaging global         economic consequences.       <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The bottom line for investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>We believe these trends argue for rethinking portfolio allocations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>         Sub-asset allocations within equities and fixed income should no longer         be viewed through the lens of cooperative globalization.       <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>         Instead, they should be viewed through the lens of trade fragmentation         and protectionist risks, and the realignment of relations between         nations into formal and informal blocs.       <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>         We think this begs for more active asset management for country,         industry, and company investment exposures.       <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>         A number of strategically important industries seem poised to benefit.         But if the protectionist trends persist over the long term, global         economic growth and equity market gains could be more muted than they         were during the globalization heyday.       <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>       <strong>         For in-depth information, please see the full report:         <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/documents\/insights\/global-insight-special-report-deglobalization.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"Worlds apart: Risks and opportunities as deglobalization looms\" class=\"file-pdf\">           Worlds apart: Risks and opportunities as deglobalization looms <\/a>.       <\/strong>     <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With trade relations more fragmented and the potential for a great power rivalry between the U.S. and China, investors need to be ready for a new paradigm.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":1513,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2023-06-05 00:00:00.0","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[42],"tags":[51],"rbcwm_content_owner":[390],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[205,213],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[212],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-1510","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-deglobalization","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_segment-business-owners-and-entrepreneurs","rbcwm_segment-institutions","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"With trade relations more fragmented and the potential for a great power 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