{"id":15153,"date":"2025-12-02T09:38:14","date_gmt":"2025-12-02T14:38:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-asia\/?p=15153"},"modified":"2025-12-02T09:38:15","modified_gmt":"2025-12-02T14:38:15","slug":"global-insight-2026-outlook-canada","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-asia\/insights\/global-insight-2026-outlook-canada","title":{"rendered":"Global Insight 2026 Outlook: Canada"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>By Matt Altro, CFA and Brett Feland<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<!-- KEY POINTS -->\n    <div class=\"well b-blue-tint-4 mb-3\">\n      <ul class=\"list-spaced medium\">\n        <li>\n          The recent federal budget could provide a further tailwind to the\n          S&#038;P\/TSX, potentially building on its solid relative performance in\n          2025.\n        <\/li>\n        <li>\n          A steeper yield curve improves the outlook for taking on duration,\n          while compensation for credit risk remains very slim.\n        <\/li>\n      <\/ul>\n    <\/div>\n\n    <!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>Canada equities<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      In 2025, the S&#038;P\/TSX Composite is on pace to produce one of the better\n      returns among developed country equity markets. The S&#038;P\/TSX has advanced\n      despite bouts of volatility and a backdrop of subdued economic growth.\n      Outperformance can largely be attributed to all-time high gold prices and\n      an improving outlook for key market segments including domestic lenders.\n      Furthermore, while U.S.-administered tariffs remain a key overhang on a\n      global scale, the USMCA has provided shelter to many Canadian industries.\n      As the USMCA comes up for joint review next summer, we are hopeful that\n      the current agreement will remain relatively unchanged. We will continue\n      to watch for further discussions between President Donald Trump and Prime\n      Minister Mark Carney on potential relief for the metals and lumber\n      industries.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Under the 2025 federal budget, the government proposed CA$280 billion in\n      increased spending and capital investments over five years. Investments\n      are focused on infrastructure, productivity and competitiveness, defence\n      and security, and housing. The federal government hopes to attract\n      considerable private and other public capital \u2013 alongside its own capital \u2013 to\n      drive a total of CA$1 trillion in new capital investment.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Current unemployment levels remain elevated, while inflation remains\n      stubbornly above target levels. Despite these conditions, aggregate\n      spending measures suggest the Canadian consumer continues to spend. This\n      dynamic can largely be explained by the economic divide between high- and\n      low-income Canadians. High-income households are doing more than their\n      fair share of consumption, while we expect value-seeking behaviour to\n      remain a constant in 2026.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      At a multiple of 15.9x price-to-earnings valuation, the S&#038;P\/TSX continues\n      to trade at a premium to its long-term historical average valuation\n      multiple of 14.7x. However, this premium is significantly lower than the\n      S&#038;P 500\u2019s 21.3x multiple relative to its long-term average multiple of\n      16.6x. Premium multiples place a higher hurdle on economic growth and\n      corporate earnings to meet or exceed expectations to drive higher equity\n      values. That said, the modest premium on the S&#038;P\/TSX could provide some\n      insulation in a widespread retracement in equity values. Beyond\n      broad-based macro positioning, we continue to endorse businesses with\n      robust balance sheets, sustainable-to-growing earnings profiles, and\n      proven management teams with a track record of enduring market volatility.\n    <\/p>\n\n    <!-- EQUITIES CHART -->\n    <h3>\n      Sector attribution for the S&#038;P\/TSX Composite 2025 year-to-date total\n      return\n    <\/h3>\n    <div class=\"row mb-4\">\n      <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\"\n          src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/global\/gio-2026-CANADA-en-equities-chart-in-page-1.png\"\n          alt=\"Sector attribution for the S&#038;P\/TSX Composite 2025 year-to-date total return\"\n          class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\"\n          aria-describedby=\"canada-equity-desc\"\n        \/>\n        <p class=\"sr-only\" id=\"canada-equity-desc\">\n          The bar chart shows the sector attribution for the S&#038;P\/TSX Composite\n          Index\u2019s total year-to-date return of 24.85% as of November 21, 2025.\n          The sector attributions are: Health Care, -0.02%; Real Estate, 0.09%;\n          Consumer Staples, 0.58%; Communication Services, 0.26%; Industrials,\n          0.24%; Consumer Discretionary, 0.86%; Utilities, 0.79%; Energy, 2.93%;\n          Information Technology, 1.89%; Financials, 8.41%; Materials, 8.81%.\n        <\/p>\n        <p class=\"disclaimer\">\n          Source &#8211; FactSet, RBC Dominion Securities; data as of 11\/21\/25\n        <\/p>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n\n    <!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>Canada fixed income<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      Except for a six-month pause in the middle of the year, the Bank of Canada\n      (BoC) continued easing monetary policy throughout 2025. The last two 25\n      basis point (bps) cuts, in September and October, brought the overnight\n      rate to 2.25 percent, the bottom end of the central bank\u2019s estimated\n      neutral range at which policy is neither restrictive nor stimulative. To\n      support a stumbling labour market and encourage economic growth that has\n      been dampened by U.S. tariff policy, the BoC has delivered a total of 275\n      bps worth of cuts since the peak in rates in 2023\u20132024, more easing than\n      any other G7 nation. Unless growth or employment data deteriorates worse\n      than policymakers expect, BoC Governor Tiff Macklem has signaled that the\n      central bank is likely finished easing monetary policy for now.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      While cutting the overnight rate has brought short-term Canadian yields\n      lower over the last year, longer-term bond yields have actually moved\n      higher. The yield curve has steepened as term premiums \u2013 the additional\n      compensation investors receive for buying longer-term bonds \u2013 have risen.\n      Much like other G7 nations, fiscal concerns have placed upward pressure on\n      longer-term bond yields and contributed to this curve steepening. Deficits\n      projected in the federal government\u2019s 2025 budget, released in November,\n      were notably wider than those from the 2024 Fall Economic Statement, as\n      the government announced a series of stimulative measures aimed at\n      supporting economic growth.\n    <\/p>\n\n    <!-- FIXED INCOME CHART -->\n    <h3>Canada sovereign yield curve<\/h3>\n    <div class=\"row mb-4\">\n      <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\"\n          src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/global\/gio-2026-CANADA-en-fixed-income-chart-2.png\"\n          alt=\"Canada sovereign yield curve\"\n          class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\"\n          aria-describedby=\"canada-fi-desc\"\n        \/>\n        <p class=\"sr-only\" id=\"canada-fi-desc\">\n          This chart shows the Canadian yield curve, plotting Government of\n          Canada bond yields with terms ranging from overnight to 30 years. Two\n          curves are shown, one with data as of November 8, 2024, and one as of\n          November 10, 2025. The chart illustrates how short-term yields have\n          fallen over that time while long-term yields have risen. For example,\n          on November 8, 2024 the overnight, 3-month, 6-month, 1-year, and\n          2-year yields were at 3.75%, 3.50%, 3.38%, 3.25%, and 3.08%,\n          respectively, while on November 10, 2025 these were at 2.25%, 2.18%,\n          2.26%, 2.33%, and 2.45%, respectively. Meanwhile, on November 8, 2024,\n          the 20-year and the 30-year yields were at 3.21% and 3.19%,\n          respectively, while on November 10, 2025 these were at 3.51% and\n          3.62%, respectively.\n        <\/p>\n        <ul class=\"rbc-legend rbc-legend-inline\">\n          <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">\n            <div class=\"rbc-legend-line c-sun\">\n              <div class=\"rbc-legend-circle rbc-legend-outline c-sun\"><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n            Nov. 8, 2024\n          <\/li>\n          <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">\n            <div class=\"rbc-legend-line c-dark-blue-tint-1\">\n              <div\n                class=\"rbc-legend-circle rbc-legend-outline c-dark-blue-tint-1\"\n              ><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n            Nov. 10, 2025\n          <\/li>\n        <\/ul>\n        <p class=\"disclaimer\">Source &#8211; RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg<\/p>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n\n    <p>\n      In our view, a steeper yield curve improves the risk\/reward profile for\n      taking on a bit more duration in portfolios, as higher starting yields for\n      longer-term bonds help offset the risk of further steepening. On the other\n      hand, credit spreads, the additional yield investors receive for\n      purchasing corporate bonds over government bonds, started 2025 at\n      historically tight levels, and despite our expectations, tightened further\n      throughout the year. We think credit markets may not be fully appreciating\n      issuer risks, and corporate bonds continue to look expensive, in our view.\n      With compensation for credit risk so slim, at this time we prefer to\n      instead take on additional duration risk in portfolios through somewhat\n      longer-term government bonds and remain cautious with respect to corporate\n      bond exposure.\n    <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We recommend focusing on stocks with quality characteristics and would add more duration to government bond exposure.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":15154,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2025-12-02T11:41:47","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[42],"tags":[597,598,599,580,476],"rbcwm_content_owner":[390],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[212],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-15153","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-canada-equities","tag-canada-federal-budget","tag-canada-fixed-income","tag-global-insight-2026-outlook","tag-global-insight-outlook","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"We recommend focusing on stocks with quality characteristics and would add more duration to government bond exposure.","rbcwm_post_author":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":"","disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[8376],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.8 (Yoast SEO v26.8) - 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