{"id":15340,"date":"2026-01-30T11:38:47","date_gmt":"2026-01-30T16:38:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-asia\/?p=15340"},"modified":"2026-01-30T11:38:48","modified_gmt":"2026-01-30T16:38:48","slug":"crosscurrents-buffet-us-dollar-and-treasury-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-asia\/insights\/crosscurrents-buffet-us-dollar-and-treasury-market","title":{"rendered":"Crosscurrents buffet U.S. dollar and Treasury market"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Atul Bhatia, CFA<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Key points<\/h2>\n
    \n
  • \n Global bond and currency market headlines are causing unease among some\n Treasury investors.\n <\/li>\n
  • \n Rising Japanese bond yields could make it more expensive for the U.S. to\n service its debt and is also an important reminder that investor patience\n with fiscal imprudence is not infinite.\n <\/li>\n
  • \n We see politically driven divestment as a low probability event that would\n cause short-term disruption, but little longer-term impact.\n <\/li>\n
  • \n Our view is that domestic U.S. factors are the main overhang for Treasury\n markets and the dollar, and that investors should remain invested in the\n U.S. but with global diversification.\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n<\/div>\n\n

    \n Treasury bonds used to be boring. Pencil in around two percent inflation,\n estimate a real growth rate and the result is a decent estimate for a fair\n yield. If an investor wanted to get fancy, he or she could throw in some term\n premium and do a little Fed watching.\n<\/p>\n

    \n Those days, it seems, are over. We go from headlines talking about selling\n pressure in Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) to fears of overseas investors\n potentially divesting their U.S. Treasury holdings. In the background, we see\n gold spiking and the dollar falling. Trying to put all the moving parts\n together to get a broad perspective on what\u2019s happening looks hideously\n complex.\n<\/p>\n

    \n And, to a certain extent, we believe it is. There are whole textbooks written\n on these relationships and the feedback loops involved.\n<\/p>\n

    \n But like most things in economics, however, we\u2019d argue there\u2019s a core\n simplicity to what we\u2019re seeing. If we strip away the jargon and the rhetoric,\n certain realities emerge, and what follows is a simplified, but still\n accurate, view of how we think about the Treasury yield curve in the months\n and years ahead.\n<\/p>\n\n

    ABCs of JGBs<\/h2>\n

    \n The recent rise in Japanese yields took place largely for domestic reasons,\n but it absolutely, in our view, has a global impact. Investors have a choice\n of where to lend money and as Japanese yields go up, it puts pressure on other\n borrowers. Since the U.S. remains by far the world\u2019s largest debtor, we think\n it is inevitably going to be one of the most impacted by this need to pay more\n to attract and retain capital. This is particularly true for JGB yields, as\n Japan is the single largest foreign holder of U.S. government debt.\n<\/p>\n

    \n Sure, there are additional complexities. Yields went up in Japan for a reason,\n so not all the impact is going to translate one-for-one to the U.S. dollar.\n Hedging costs also play a role in how yields translate between different\n sovereign issuers. But those are largely quibbles about the magnitude of the\n impact on the U.S. from the JGB move and not its direction.\n<\/p>\n

    \n The Japanese bond move also has a psychological impact on Treasury investors.\n Japan has long occupied the role of counter example to folks concerned with\n the U.S. debt level. The fact that Japan\u2019s debt-to-GDP ratio almost doubles\n that of the U.S. was taken by some to mean that U.S. debt would not impact\n Treasury yields.\n<\/p>\n

    \n With the recent JGB selloff, it seems that perhaps there is a limit to the\n debt that markets will overlook. The comparison is particularly troubling for\n U.S. investors since the proximate drivers for the recent JGB move were, we\n believe, concerns over large debt loads, expansionary fiscal policy and\n underlying inflation pressures. This list has resonance for any U.S. bond\n observer.\n<\/p>\n

    \n In short, higher Japanese yields set up a competitor for investment capital,\n making it more expensive for the U.S. to fund its deficit spending. At the\n same time, it raises so-called \u201ctail risk\u201d concerns, or the idea that we could\n see a rapid repricing of U.S. debt.\n<\/p>\n\n

    The divestment catch-22<\/h2>\n

    \n Unlike the situation with Japan, we think the divestment issue is more of a\n distraction than a real influence on U.S. bond pricing.\n<\/p>\n

    \n To begin with, we think it\u2019s highly unlikely to occur on a large scale.\n Divestment is a good threat to have in the background, but once a country\n sells its holdings, that\u2019s it \u2013 the threat is done with and the U.S. would then\n have a free hand to retaliate. Strategically, it\u2019s not necessarily a great\n move, in our view.\n<\/p>\n

    \n Even if it were to occur, however, we believe it would largely be a\n reshuffling of assets versus a long-term, fundamental hit to the United\n States. What we think would happen would be official and quasi-official\n investment funds selling U.S. assets as private investors and hedge funds\n bought the securities. The net result, in our view, would be one class of\n investor going underweight U.S. risk while another type of investor went\n overweight. This type of investor reprofiling is not a routine occurrence, but\n it is not unusual. The end result would likely be a moderate increase in\n yields to a still manageable level.\n<\/p>\n

    \n This is not to say that it would be a seamless transition. We believe it would\n almost certainly be extremely volatile in the short run. But at the end of the\n day, if people want to own U.S. assets, they will find a way. If official\n capital divests, private capital will backfill. We\u2019ve seen that story play out\n dozens of times. Even heavily sanctioned countries can find global capital. In\n the case of the U.S., we think the idea of divestment is much more hype than\n substance.\n<\/p>\n\n

    The call is coming from inside the house<\/h2>\n

    \n We think the simple truth is that the biggest threat to Treasuries does not\n come from abroad but from U.S. fiscal policy. And while we think that threat\n is manageable for most Treasury bonds, we have concerns about the 30-year\n maturity.\n<\/p>\n

    \n Even though the U.S. economy is expanding at an above-average pace, the U.S.\n budget deficit is hovering near six percent of GDP, an amount that\n historically was associated with recessions. No one, we believe, would argue\n that this is a sustainable budget, including the politicians that passed it.\n<\/p>\n

    \n It\u2019s unclear how, or when, U.S. finances will get back on track, but it seems\n increasingly likely that it will take an external event to force budgetary\n sanity on the country. Put simply, if the U.S. government cannot put its\n fiscal house in order when there is single-party control of government and a\n strong economic expansion, when will it? These conditions offer a solid\n backdrop and the lowest friction to pass legislation, and yet no discernible\n progress has been made on the fiscal front. Tariffs and inbound investments\n could, in theory, assist at the margin, but nothing in the data or projections\n suggests they will meaningfully alter the debt trajectory.\n<\/p>\n

    \n This lack of fiscal sanity, we believe, creates multiple headwinds for\n longer-maturity Treasuries.\n<\/p>\n

    \n One is the issuance of new bonds to fund this spending. Buying a 30-year\n government bond may not be catching a falling knife, but it\u2019s arguably napping\n under the Sword of Damocles \u2013 not a comfortable spot.\n<\/p>\n

    \n Another risk is the potential for growing deficits over time. Taking away\n benefits is always unpopular, but adding new ones is relatively easy. Future\n administrations are likely, we believe, to open the spigots further and add to\n the deficits, creating more supply and higher inflation risk.\n<\/p>\n

    \n Finally, we think there is the question of potential tail risks as we go into\n longer maturity bonds. If it\u2019s true that markets, and not politicians or\n voters, are going to be the catalyst for change, that catalyst is likely going\n to come in the form of higher yields and lower bond prices. These impacts \u2013 and\n losses \u2013 will likely be felt most severely at the 30-year point. Rational\n investors, we think, could choose to focus their holdings on shorter-maturity\n Treasuries.\n<\/p>\n\n

    Dollar daze<\/h2>\n

    \n Since Jan. 2025, the dollar is down nearly 10 percent against a roughly\n trade-weighted basket of major currencies. Given the ubiquity of the dollar in\n global finance, that simple reality has a way of altering the return\n perspective on many asset classes. The S&P 500, for instance, turned in a\n robust 18 percent return in that time; measured in euros, however, it barely\n cleared a three percent gain. Much of what we think of as rising asset prices\n is really the impact of using a shorter yardstick to measure the value.\n<\/p>\n

    \n We think the dollar\u2019s weakness is related to concerns about the debt but is\n more generally about the predictability of U.S. policymaking and the apparent\n absence of any roadmap to fiscal sanity.\n<\/p>\n

    \n In theory, deficits and currency strength are not mutually exclusive. In fact,\n a small deficit is usually a boon for a country\u2019s currency since it\n contributes to growth and gives room to keep interest rates a touch higher,\n both of which currency markets tend to like. But deficits and the resulting\n debt are like adding salt to a dish. A little bit can elevate the taste, but\n too much and it\u2019s unpalatable.\n<\/p>\n

    \n The key line is the real interest rate versus the real growth rate. If the\n country\u2019s economy is growing faster than its cost of funds, the debt is\n sustainable. If not, the currency will likely face pressure. Unfortunately,\n there\u2019s no way to know the relevant interest and growth rates since we\u2019re\n concerned with future events. We do know, however, that the U.S. long-term\n real growth rate and the current real interest rate are at about the same\n level.\n<\/p>\n

    \n Concerns that debt service costs could rise soon are likely playing a role in\n the dollar\u2019s weakness. Even though the Fed has cut short-term interest rates\n by 1.75 percent since Sept. 2024, the 10-year government bond yield has\n risen 50 basis points in that time. This leaves the U.S. increasingly forced\n to choose between stability and price. It can use expensive but predictable\n 10-year financing, or it can rely on inexpensive short-term money but with the\n risk of potentially large and rapid swings in debt service costs. So far, the\n U.S. government has kept to a blended issuance approach, but there is no\n guarantee that will continue to be its plan.\n<\/p>\n\n

    Safety of security<\/h2>\n

    \n More than these theoretical concerns, however, we\u2019d argue that risk management\n is currently driving the currency bus.\n<\/p>\n

    \n Investors like to have assets that they perceive as a safe haven. It\u2019s great\n to have at least one position in a portfolio that is expected to do well when\n things turn scary in the world. For a long time, the dollar and the Treasury\n bond played that role. The best part was that they tended to generate a\n reasonable amount of income as well \u2013 essentially it acted like an insurance\n policy that simultaneously protected and paid the investor. Nice deal if you\n can get it.\n<\/p>\n

    \n We believe there is reasonable evidence that global investors may feel less\n secure in being plugged in to the dollar ecosystem. While it still offers\n exposure to one of the world\u2019s largest and most vibrant economies, the\n exposure carries with it a potential pain point that can be exploited. To the\n extent that global investors have reduced appetite to hold dollars as a safety\n asset, their reallocation of those funds is likely to create ongoing headwinds\n for the greenback. One reason to believe that the search for safety is a key\n component of the recent dollar weakness is the concurrent very strong\n performance of precious metals and currencies such as the Swiss franc.\n<\/p>\n

    \n It\u2019s important to distinguish this type of reprofiling from divestment. The\n former is likely to be a gradual process driven primarily by traditional\n risk-return calculations while the latter is done as a means of applying\n pressure to a government even if it is not economically advisable.\n<\/p>\n\n

    What does this mean for investors?<\/h2>\n

    \n We think investors should consider taking modest steps in response to the\n evolving landscape. These include:\n<\/p>\n

      \n
    • \n Remain invested in the United States:<\/strong> It\u2019s a huge,\n productive economy and needs to be in investor portfolios, in our view.\n <\/li>\n
    • \n Diversify globally:<\/strong> Non-U.S. equities can offer currency\n exposure and diversification benefits.\n <\/li>\n
    • \n Shorten up maturities:<\/strong> We are generally cautious on the\n longest maturity bonds in many jurisdictions. We see benefits to keeping\n maturities or high probability call dates within 10 years.\n <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n

      Simple question, difficult answer<\/h2>\n

      \n At the end of the day, we think the biggest overhang for longer-term\n Treasuries and to a lesser extent the dollar is the lack of a clear, simple\n story on why an investor should own them. Not too long ago, that question\n would have been considered nonsensical by most investors; Treasuries and\n dollars were seen as the key to safety.\n<\/p>\n

      \n Now, however, we see U.S. debt dynamics and an apparent lack of interest in\n returning to a sustainable fiscal path as major overhangs for longer-term\n Treasuries. The dollar is still the default trade currency and continues to\n benefit from a lack of obvious replacements, but its utility now comes at a\n higher apparent cost in the form of a potentially exploitable exposure.\n<\/p>\n

      \n Global bond markets, precious metals, and currencies are sending us a signal\n on sustainability. We think investors should listen.\n<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Global and domestic headlines have put the focus squarely on U.S. sovereign assets. We look at what steps investors should take in this time of shifting economic messages.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":15341,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2026-01-29T10:43:36","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[42],"tags":[162,621,49],"rbcwm_content_owner":[390],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[212],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-15340","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-investing","tag-treasuries","tag-u-s-dollar","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"Global and domestic headlines have put the focus squarely on U.S. sovereign assets. We look at what steps investors should take in this time of shifting economic messages.","rbcwm_post_author":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":"","disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[8376],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"\nCrosscurrents buffet U.S. dollar and Treasury market<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Global and domestic headlines have put the focus squarely on U.S. sovereign assets. 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