{"id":15832,"date":"2026-06-18T11:52:27","date_gmt":"2026-06-18T15:52:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-asia\/?p=15832"},"modified":"2026-06-18T11:52:28","modified_gmt":"2026-06-18T15:52:28","slug":"global-insight-2026-midyear-outlook-united-states","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-asia\/insights\/global-insight-2026-midyear-outlook-united-states","title":{"rendered":"Global Insight 2026 Midyear Outlook: United States"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Kelly Bogdanova,\u00a0Thomas Garretson, CFA<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

United States equities<\/h2>\n

\n The U.S. stock market has faced multiple challenges so far this year, yet\n it has climbed the wall of worry. The S&P 500 Index has rallied eight percent and\n the Information Technology sector has surged 17 percent year to date through June\n 11.\n <\/p>\n

\n At first glance, the market may seem disconnected from reality, especially\n considering Americans\u2019 negative assessments of the economy in multiple\n opinion polls. However, corporate earnings have been the great stabilizer.\n The market\u2019s profit outlook for 2026 and 2027 has brightened notably\n compared to the beginning of the year.\n <\/p>\n

\n Any reservations we had about earnings prospects have been put to rest due\n to the Information Technology sector\u2019s very robust Q1 year-over-year\n profit growth of 49 percent and evidence that AI capital spending could continue\n to rise over the near term, if not longer. Consensus earnings growth\n forecasts for Technology and other sectors have been revised upward,\n including for Energy due to elevated oil prices caused by the Middle East\n conflict.\n <\/p>\n

\n The more buoyant S&P 500 profit outlook checks the box of one catalyst\n we thought was necessary for the bull market to persist for a fourth\n consecutive year in 2026.\n <\/p>\n

\n With the midterm elections approaching on Nov. 3, we\u2019re mindful that\n the market faces another obstacle \u2013 and a historical one at that. The\n S&P 500 has experienced an average 21 percent correction surrounding midterm\n election years since 1934, as we discussed in a recent report<\/a>.\n <\/p>\n

\n Given the market has already endured a brief nine percent pullback last spring, this\n begs the question: Has the usual midterm election year performance hiccup\n been satisfied? Maybe, but we can\u2019t exclude the possibility that another\n pullback could occur, especially if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely\n closed, Treasury yields continue to rise due to inflation risks and\/or\n midterm election angst materializes.\n <\/p>\n

\n We suggest maintaining a Market Weight position in U.S. equities. In order\n to manage risk, we would scrutinize equity holdings as some stocks in the\n Technology sector (especially semiconductors) have rallied sharply and\n could face bouts of significant volatility and\/or correct meaningfully.\n Therefore, investors should be vigilant about single-stock and sector\n exposures in portfolios by bringing them back into balance if they\u2019ve\n drifted well out of bounds.\n <\/p>\n \n

\n S&P 500 and six sectors forecast to deliver double-digit earnings\n growth this year\n <\/h3>\n

2026 earnings-per-share consensus growth estimates (year over year)<\/h4>\n
\n
\n \"2026\n

\n Source – RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; data as of 6\/10\/26\n <\/p>\n

\n The bar chart shows 2026 earnings-per-share consensus growth forecasts\n as follows: Energy 69.1%, Information Technology 50.1%, Materials\n 38.6%, S&P 500 22.6%, Communication Services 19.1%, Industrials 10.7%,\n Utilities 10.2%, Consumer Discretionary 9.1%, Financials 8.6%,\n Consumer Staples 5.4%, Real Estate 4.9%, and Health Care 2.4%.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n

United States fixed income<\/h2>\n

\n Our base case remains that the Federal Reserve will keep policy rates on\n hold for the balance of 2026, but with a growing bias toward a potential\n rate hike. While we think this should anchor Treasury yields around\n current levels, it clearly introduces some upside risks to our current\n forecasts (see chart below). We see scope for the benchmark 10-year\n Treasury yield to test key highs from this cycle: 4.8 percent from 2025 and\n potentially the 5.0 percent level from 2023.\n <\/p>\n

\n While the Middle East conflict \u2013 and the associated rise in oil prices and\n inflationary risks \u2013 could be seen as the sole culprit of the market\u2019s\n flip-flop from pricing further Fed rate cuts earlier this year to now\n expecting at least one rate hike, we think that misses the big picture. If\n we take a step back, the U.S. economy remains remarkably resilient,\n largely supported by continued consumer strength and, to a much greater\n degree, the massive AI-related capital investment that is ongoing.\n Inflation has remained above the Fed\u2019s target for years, major U.S. stock\n market indexes remain near record highs, and the unemployment rate at 4.3 percent\n remains essentially in line with the Fed\u2019s estimate of \u201cmaximum\n employment.\u201d Put simply, all signs point to the idea that Fed policy at a\n minimum is correctly calibrated, with an argument to be made that rates\n may have been cut too far last year.\n <\/p>\n

\n Credit markets remain historically rich, offering a scant 0.73 percent of\n incremental yield over comparable Treasuries and among the tightest levels\n seen since 2000 \u2013 implying minimal credit risks at the moment. That of\n course jibes with our solid economic outlook, but it leaves few attractive\n opportunities for bond investors. That said, all-in yields remain\n attractive with the Bloomberg US Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index\n yielding 5.3 percent, compared to an average of 4.7 percent over the past five years.\n Additionally, bank-issued hybrid preferred bonds offer an attractive\n alternative to corporate bonds, in our view.\n <\/p>\n \n

\n With the Fed likely on hold, we see Treasury yields trading around\n current levels\n <\/h3>\n
\n
\n \"With\n
\n
\n
    \n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n 10Y Treasury yield\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    \n
    <\/div>\n <\/div>\n 10Y Treasury yield forecast\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n <\/div>\n
    \n
      \n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n Federal funds rate\n <\/li>\n
    • \n
      \n
      <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n Federal funds rate forecast\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

      \n Source – RBC Wealth Management, RBC Capital Markets, Bloomberg\n <\/p>\n

      \n The chart shows the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond and the\n federal funds rate from December 2022 through June 8, 2026, and\n quarterly estimates of both through December 2027. The federal funds\n rate rose to 5.50% in 2023, then began to fall in September 2024 to\n its current level of 3.75%, where it is projected to remain through\n 2027. The 10-year Treasury yield has moved between roughly 3.50% and\n 4.75% since December 2022; it is currently around 4.50% and projected\n to remain between 4.35% and 4.50% through the end of 2027.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      There are catalysts for the bull market in stocks to persist. Bonds face a more challenging landscape.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":15141,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2026-06-15T15:39:27","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[42],"tags":[681,682,683,684],"rbcwm_content_owner":[390],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[212],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-15832","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-global-insight-2026-midyear-outlook","tag-sp-500-2","tag-united-states-equities-2","tag-united-states-fixed-income-2","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"There are catalysts for the bull market in stocks to persist. Bonds face a more challenging landscape.","rbcwm_post_author":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":"","disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[8376],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"\nGlobal Insight 2026 Midyear Outlook: United States<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"There are catalysts for the bull market in stocks to persist. 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