{"id":447,"date":"2023-03-31T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-03-31T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-asia\/2023\/03\/31\/whats-calmed-markets-during-the-banking-stress\/"},"modified":"2024-02-05T09:18:47","modified_gmt":"2024-02-05T14:18:47","slug":"whats-calmed-markets-during-the-banking-stress","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-asia\/insights\/whats-calmed-markets-during-the-banking-stress","title":{"rendered":"What\u2019s calmed markets during the banking stress?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>       If you\u2019d been away on vacation and had left your smartphone behind, you       probably wouldn\u2019t even know that markets recently endured the most       stressful period since the onset of the COVID-19 crisis in 2020.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       Just a couple weeks after the banking system scare on both sides of the       Atlantic, the S&amp;P 500 has come back to roughly where it was before the       SVB Financial and Credit Suisse crises began, and other key markets have       rebounded off their lows as well.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-key-equity-indexes-taking-the-banking-stress-in-stride\">Key equity indexes taking the banking stress in stride<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-performance-from-right-before-the-svb-financial-collapse-began\">Performance from right before the SVB Financial collapse began<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"row mb-4 migrated\">       <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">         <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/8\/2023\/03\/whats-calmed-markets-en-chart-1.png\" alt=\"Four key equity indexes\" class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\" \/>         <p           class=\"sr-only\"           id=\"chart1desc\"         >           Line chart measuring four key equity indexes from March 8 through           March 29 of this year: the S&#038;P 500, Hang Seng, STOXX Europe 600, and           Canada&#8217;s S&#038;P\/TSX. Each index declined right after SVB Financial began           to collapse, and have subsequently rebounded. The S&#038;P 500 reached a           low point of -3.4%, the Hang Seng -5.2%, the STOXX Europe 600 -5.4%,           and the S&#038;P\/TSX -4.7%. Each of these indexes have recovered off of           their lows. The S&#038;P 500 and Hang Seng are now up slightly, by 0.9% and           0.7%, respectively, since March 8. The STOXX Europe 600 and S&#038;P\/TSX           are down 2.3% and 2.5%, respectively.         <\/p>              <ul class=\"rbc-legend rbc-legend-inline\">       <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\" >         <div class=\"rbc-legend-line c-dark-blue-tint-1\"><\/div>         S&amp;P 500       <\/li>       <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\" >         <div class=\"rbc-legend-line c-carbon\"><\/div>         STOXX Europe 600       <\/li>       <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\" >         <div class=\"rbc-legend-line c-apple\"><\/div>         Hang Seng       <\/li>       <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\" >         <div class=\"rbc-legend-line c-warm-yellow\"><\/div>         Canada&#8217;s S&amp;P\/TSX       <\/li>     <\/ul>         <p class=\"disclaimer\">           Source &#8211; RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; data from 3\/8\/23 \u2013 3\/29\/23         <\/p>       <\/div>     <\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>       <strong>Why have markets shrugged off financial system stress?<\/strong>     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       <strong>The \u201cpowers that be\u201d proved they learned some lessons: <\/strong>U.S. and European financial authorities reacted much more rapidly as SVB       and Credit Suisse were collapsing than they did during the onset of the       global financial crisis when then-U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson and       then-Fed Chair Ben Bernanke essentially sat on their hands by letting       Lehman Brothers fail in 2008, which kicked off a terrible chain reaction       worldwide.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       Have the authorities\u2019 actions been perfect this time? No, we have already       discovered things they could have done better. But we have to give them       credit for stopping the bleeding. Importantly, their rapid responses       signal that if additional knock-on effects happen at other financial       institutions, they stand ready to act again. We think this has supported       depositor and investor confidence, and equity markets.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       <strong>Troubled banks, not a large swath of banks, seem to be using the Fed\u2019s         emergency programs:<\/strong>       U.S. financial institutions are primarily accessing two Fed vehicles to       plug liquidity holes: the discount window and the new Bank Term Funding       Program (BTFP). Funds accessed at the discount window spiked in the first       two weeks following the SVB crisis to levels that rivaled those during the       global financial crisis in 2008\u201309, and the BTFP has been used as well,       but to a much lesser degree than the discount window.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       Importantly, RBC Capital Markets believes the bulk of funds accessed in       these programs has been used to manage liquidity at two of the       institutions that failed (SVB and Silvergate Bank) and to assist First       Republic Bank, which has acknowledged liquidity challenges. We think this       is evidence that the current problems within the U.S. banking system are       more idiosyncratic than systemic in nature. Our fixed income colleague       summed it up well in his <a href=\"\/insights\/a-crisis-for-a-few-banks-is-not-a-banking-crisis\" title=\"A crisis for a few banks is not a banking crisis\">commentary<\/a> on this topic by saying, \u201cA crisis for       a few banks is not a banking crisis.\u201d     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       <strong>The Fed seems set to change course: <\/strong>In our view, SVB\u2019s       collapse and related deposit flight at other regional banks sent a loud       and clear message to the Fed: an uber-hawkish rate hike posture is no       longer tenable because interest rates are prohibitively too high for the       regional banking system to bear without significant external support from       the Fed itself.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       As a result, we think the Fed\u2019s 25 basis point rate hike last week will be       either the last or second-to-last one of this rate hike cycle \u2013 despite the       fact that inflation is currently elevated. RBC Capital Markets anticipates       inflation will recede further in coming months, not yet to the Fed\u2019s two       percent target, but enough to give the Fed at least some breathing room.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       Historically, in the months following a pause in the Fed\u2019s rate hike cycle       the S&amp;P 500 has typically traded higher, and in the months following       the first rate cut the market has often risen at an above-average rate.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       <strong>Cooler heads prevailed: <\/strong>Most fund managers and individual       investors have been through volatile periods before, including the extreme       COVID-19 selloff and subsequent rapid recovery, not to mention the deep       global financial crisis selloff in 2008\u201309, which markets overcame by       rallying sustainably for years thereafter. Perhaps long-term investors       have learned that it\u2019s generally best not to react hastily to market       stress and, at the very least, it\u2019s often prudent to have a \u201cwait-and-see\u201d       attitude until conditions settle down.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">As always, be vigilant<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>       Of course, just because equity markets have stabilized does not       necessarily mean the aftershocks are over.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       To gauge the banking system stress, market participants will keep a close       eye on funds accessed at the Fed\u2019s discount window and within the BTFP.       Another week\u2019s worth of these data will be released in the afternoon on       March 30 and each week thereafter.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       Bank deposit outflows are also being closely monitored. Fed data indicates       that outflows of smaller banks surged to a record level for the week       ending March 15. But there are nuances. The largest 25 banks recorded       significant deposit inflows. Also, there is evidence a lot of funds       shifted from traditional bank savings and checking accounts into money       market accounts where they generally fetch higher rates of return. Another       week\u2019s worth of Fed deposit data is set to be disclosed on March 31 and       more data will follow in subsequent weeks.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       The shift from traditional bank deposits to money market accounts is       important, in our view. It signals that going forward banks could be under       increasing pressure to compete with money market rates and\/or to entice       large depositors to use in-house money market funds rather than shift       deposits into money market funds at other financial institutions. Some       large U.S. banks, for example, have just recently introduced new,       higher-yielding in-house money market programs. Ultimately, we think it       will be expensive for banks to pay competitive rates on deposits. This may       have a number of consequences, including constraining banks\u2019 willingness       or ability to lend, and constricting profitability, especially for smaller       banks.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       Market participants will likely remain on edge until smaller banks\u2019       deposit outflows subside meaningfully, and until the use of the Fed\u2019s       emergency liquidity programs diminish notably. We think this will happen       over time.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       Moreover, we believe recession risks are more elevated now due to ongoing       interest rate-related challenges for banks and the overall economy. We       think bank lending standards, which had already begun to tighten before       SVB collapsed, will tighten further. Normally this development is a key       precursor to a recession.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       But even if the economy does indeed succumb to a recession \u2013 which we think       will happen \u2013 this just might be the most telegraphed recession in modern       history. Recession risks have been discussed by analysts and economists       over and over, including by us, for months. We think a recession already       has been at least partially factored into stock prices. This is a key       reason why the S&amp;P 500 is down 16.0 percent from its all-time high in       early 2022 and had been down even more last autumn.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       In the near term, the equity market will likely focus on the degree to       which credit tightening will impact economic trends and recession risks,       along with the Q1 earnings season that will begin in earnest in mid-April.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       We continue to recommend Market Weight exposure to U.S. equities, an       allocation that attempts to balance the heightened economic and volatility       risks against what we think is already priced into the market.     <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We see four reasons why the stock market has punched through the turbulence and give our thoughts on the main risks from here.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":450,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2023-03-30 00:00:00.0","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[42],"tags":[61,63,62],"rbcwm_content_owner":[390],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[205,206],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[212],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-447","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-equity-markets","tag-recession-risks","tag-stock-market","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_segment-business-owners-and-entrepreneurs","rbcwm_segment-individuals-and-families","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"We see four reasons why the stock market has punched through the turbulence and give our thoughts on the main risks from here.","rbcwm_post_author":[98],"rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":[],"omit_from_pages":[],"disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[8376],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":""},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.8 (Yoast SEO v26.8) - 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