{"id":7446,"date":"2023-08-03T20:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-08-04T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-asia\/insights\/strategic-investing-beyond-north-america"},"modified":"2023-11-01T11:14:26","modified_gmt":"2023-11-01T15:14:26","slug":"strategic-investing-beyond-north-america","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-asia\/insights\/strategic-investing-beyond-north-america","title":{"rendered":"Strategic investing beyond North America"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>By Sean Killin<\/strong><\/p> <p>       Over the past 10 years, U.S. equities have significantly outperformed       their international developed market peers. Since 2013, the S&amp;P 500       has generated annualized returns of 13.6 percent through July 2023,       compared to 6.2 percent for the MSCI EAFE Index, a proxy for international       stocks outside North America (EAFE stands for \u201cEurope, Australasia, and       the Far East\u201d).     <\/p>     <p>       In our view, this wide performance gap materialized for a number of       reasons, including:     <\/p>     <ul class=\"list-spaced\">       <li>         Faster economic expansion and corporate earnings growth in the U.S.         relative to Japan and Europe;       <\/li>       <li>         The sector composition of the U.S. market, which gives greater weight to         Tech and technology-related sectors that have experienced secular         growth; and       <\/li>       <li>         The general strength of the U.S. dollar against the euro and the yen.       <\/li>     <\/ul>     <p>       As persistent outperformance has led investors to increasingly favour U.S.       stocks, this trend has also been reflected in a shift in equity valuations       over the past decade.     <\/p>     <p>       The price-to-earnings (P\/E) multiple (a measure of what investors are       willing to pay for a stock based on its trailing 12-month earnings) of the       MSCI USA Index averaged 20.6x over the past 10 years compared to 16.9x in       the decade prior, suggesting that investors have become more willing to       pay a relative premium for stronger U.S. corporate profitability and       growth prospects.     <\/p>     <p>       On the flip side, the average P\/E ratio of the MSCI EAFE Index, in which       Europe and Japan account for over 80 percent of constituent stocks, fell       to 16.7x over the past decade from 21.0x in the decade prior. A nearly       stagnant Japanese economy over the past decade and a multiyear debt crisis       affecting the eurozone in the early 2010s were notable factors that       undermined investor confidence in international developed stock markets.     <\/p>     <h3>Trading places<\/h3>     <h4>Average price-to-earnings ratio<\/h4>     <div class=\"row mb-4 migrated\">       <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">         <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/8\/2023\/08\/strategic-beyond-america-en-chart-1.png\" alt=\"Average price-to-earnings ratios of MSCI USA Index and MSCI EAFE Index\" class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\" \/>         <p           class=\"sr-only\"           id=\"chart1desc\"         >           Bar chart showing the average price-to-earnings ratios for the MSCI           USA Index and the MSCI EAFE Index for three periods. For 2002 to 2012,           the averages are U.S.: 16.9x, EAFE: 21.0x. For 2013 to 2023, the           averages are U.S.: 20.6x, EAFE: 16.7x; For 1996 to present, the           averages are U.S.: 20.2x, EAFE: 21.8x.         <\/p>         <ul class=\"rbc-legend rbc-legend-inline\">           <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">             <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar c-blue-tint-1\"><\/div>             MSCI USA Index           <\/li>           <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">             <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar c-dark-blue-tint-1\"><\/div>             MSCI EAFE Index           <\/li>         <\/ul>         <p class=\"disclaimer\">           Source &#8211; RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; monthly data through           7\/31\/23         <\/p>  <\/div>     <\/div>       <h2>But U.S. stocks don\u2019t always outperform<\/h2>     <p>       While history shows that regional equity leadership cycles tend to be       lengthy, it also shows that leadership does rotate.     <\/p>     <p>       There have been several prolonged episodes of strong international       developed-market equity outperformance over the past 50 years. The       previous outperformance cycle for international markets started in the       aftermath of the dotcom bubble in the early 2000s, a backdrop       characterized by extreme market concentration and elevated valuations for       the U.S. market.     <\/p>     <p>       The present period of U.S. outperformance has been much longer and more       pronounced than any other since 1970. While there is always a degree of       uncertainty when it comes to timing market trends, we think the lesson       from history that market leadership tends to alternate in multiyear       periods over the long term is likely to hold true in the future.     <\/p>     <p>       At a time when the U.S. equity market has become quite <a href=\"\/insights\/reading-between-the-lines-of-the-stock-market-rally\" title=\"Reading between the lines of the stock market rally\">top-heavy<\/a>, with       fewer than 10 stocks representing an outsized share of S&amp;P 500       returns, we think international markets can provide compelling       opportunities to broaden sector and company exposures in portfolios at       relatively less demanding valuations.     <\/p>     <h3>Leadership rotation<\/h3>     <h4>Cumulative outperformance of MSCI USA and MSCI EAFE indexes<\/h4>     <div class=\"row mb-4 migrated\">       <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">         <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/8\/2023\/08\/strategic-beyond-america-en-chart-2.png\" alt=\"Cumulative outperformance of MSCI USA and MSCI EAFE indexes\" class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\" \/>         <p           class=\"sr-only\"           id=\"chart2desc\"         >           Line chart showing periods of cumulative outperformance of the MSCI           USA Index vs. the MSCI EAFE Index, dating back to 1970. It shows that           there are periods where the U.S. market outperforms EAFE and roughly           equivalent periods where the EAFE market outperforms the U.S. The U.S.           market has outperformed the EAFE since late 2007.         <\/p>         <ul class=\"rbc-legend rbc-legend-inline\">           <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">             <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar c-blue-tint-1\"><\/div>             U.S. outperformance           <\/li>           <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">             <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar c-dark-blue-tint-1\"><\/div>             EAFE outperformance           <\/li>         <\/ul>         <p class=\"disclaimer\">           Source &#8211; RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; monthly data through           7\/31\/23         <\/p>         <\/div>     <\/div>      <h2>Geopolitics and the U.S. dollar<\/h2>     <p>       With ongoing geopolitical tensions leading to more fragmented trade       relations, the <a href=\"\/worlds-apart-risks-and-opportunities-as-deglobalization-looms\" title=\"Worlds Apart: Risks and opportunities as deglobalization looms\">shift away from globalization<\/a> may also create opportunities       in international equity markets.     <\/p>     <p>       Given the lack of clarity on how the world economy could be transformed       under a new trade paradigm, companies in Europe and Japan can serve as       useful ways to position for a wider range of potential economic outcomes       in an era where protectionist policies such as onshoring, friend-shoring       and trade barriers are likely to become increasingly common.     <\/p>     <p>       Meanwhile, we think currency headwinds should soften for international       equities.     <\/p>     <p>       A persistently strong U.S. dollar has meaningfully curtailed returns for       USD-denominated investments. Since 2013, the MSCI EAFE Currency Index \u2013 in       which the weight of each currency is equal to the weight of the issuing       country in the MSCI EAFE Index \u2013 has depreciated by almost 23 percent       through July 2023, representing an annualized drag of 2.4 percent on       performance in U.S. dollar terms.     <\/p>     <p>       According to RBC Global Asset Management\u2019s fair value model, the U.S.       trade-weighted dollar remains overvalued by more than 20 percent based on       purchasing power parity. The current valuation suggests the U.S. dollar       could enter a multiyear weakening cycle to work off this overvaluation,       which would likely help improve currency-adjusted returns for       international equities in the years ahead.     <\/p>     <h2>A strategic case for overseas markets<\/h2>     <p>       Although U.S. equities have handily outpaced their EAFE peers over the       past decade, we believe diversified portfolios should continue to maintain       a strategic allocation to international equity markets.     <\/p>     <p>       While market shifts are difficult to time, history informs us that equity       market leadership tends to ebb and flow between different regions over the       long run.     <\/p>     <p>       Most importantly, the opportunity set in international markets can provide       several benefits, including diversifying sources of risk and returns, an       income stream we see as attractive (the MSCI EAFE Index carries a dividend       yield of 3.4 percent compared to 1.5 percent for the S&amp;P 500 Index), a       more balanced industry mix and sector composition, and differentiated       exposure to broader geopolitical trends.     <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In a dynamic geopolitical landscape, an allocation to international developed-market equities can benefit portfolios over the long term.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":7450,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2023-08-03 00:00:00.0","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[42],"tags":[318,49],"rbcwm_content_owner":[],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[205,206],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[212],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-7446","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-trade-barriers","tag-u-s-dollar","rbcwm_segment-business-owners-and-entrepreneurs","rbcwm_segment-individuals-and-families","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"In a dynamic geopolitical landscape, an allocation to international developed-market equities can benefit portfolios over the long term.","rbcwm_post_author":[],"rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":["No"],"expandable":[],"omit_from_pages":[],"disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":null,"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":""},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.8 (Yoast SEO v26.8) - 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