COVID-19 has brought the future forward as the rush to harness smart technologies and new forms of intelligence increases. We discuss how technology will help reshape how we work, learn and more.
Senior Vice-President, Office of the CEORBC
No matter how much technology we have, we’ve discovered we cannot escape nature’s grip. And yet, no matter how humbling this crisis has been, it also should remind us that even a massive jolt to the planet cannot change the trajectory of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. If anything, we’re emerging from this crisis with an even greater desire to harness smart technologies, new forms of intelligence and vast pools of data to transform pretty much everything we do. COVID did not crush the future. It merely brought it forward.
In the short term, the economic recovery won’t be as fast as the consumer and social changes that are hitting every business and community. The scar tissue will take time to heal. We expect the Canadian economy, as measured by GDP, to decline 7.1 percent for 2020, as international trade limps along, unemployment remains elevated and consumers stay home, literally and figuratively. Even as provinces allow for businesses, community groups and eventually schools to reopen, a quiet nervousness will give the economy a collective pause, and people everywhere will focus anew on income security and health security.
This new age of insecurity will do more than pervade the Canadian psyche. We estimate that even with a modest recovery, the Canadian economy will be operating below pre-coronavirus levels until 2022, and the combined loss of economic output for Canada may exceed $1 trillion. The setback is already holding back investors and entrepreneurs, and may also give government leaders pause as they allocate unprecedented sums to kick-start an economy that may be reluctant to rev. Our regular tracking of small- and medium-sized business owners shows caution across the board: three-quarters have partially or fully closed, and a third have laid off staff. More worrisome, a quarter are not very confident they’ll make it. And while one in five Canadians feel they’re “sinking” economically, small business owners are twice as likely to hold that sentiment.
Who will be first back in the water is always a tough question, but that’s when the pearls of opportunity are most plentiful. Yes, the novel coronavirus of 2019 has unleashed a massive global recession – but it’s also unleashing waves of innovation as we all change the way we work, shop, eat and travel. And companies, old and new, that are watching this sudden sea change in human behaviour are starting to grow.
In this report, we look at eight major trends underway in the world, and pinpoint the possibilities for savvy business operators, investors and innovators. We all know how much our lives have changed, and how we’re not likely to go back to our old ways. We’ll be more cautious but we also may be more creative. As history likes to remind us, with unprecedented times come unprecedented opportunities.
Fewer offices, less paper, more productivity
What we’re seeing
What this means
More shipping, more local, more expensive
More binging, more culture, more global
More bandwidth, more data, more hacks
More local, more modest, more active
More protection, more screening, more expensive
Remote, interactive, personal
More protectionism, fewer imports, higher prices
This report was originally published by RBC Thought Leadership.
As senior vice-president, Office of the CEO, John advises the executive leadership on emerging trends in Canada’s economy, providing insights grounded in his travels across the country and around the world. His work focuses on technological change and innovation, examining how to successfully navigate the new economy so more people can thrive in the age of disruption. Prior to joining RBC, John spent nearly 25 years at the Globe and Mail, where he served as editor-in-chief, editor of Report on Business, and a foreign correspondent in New Delhi, India. He is the author of three books and has a fourth underway.
This article is intended as general information only and is not to be relied upon as constituting legal, financial or other professional advice. A professional advisor should be consulted regarding your specific situation. Information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date but we do not guarantee its accuracy and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the authors as of the date of publication and are subject to change. No endorsement of any third parties or their advice, opinions, information, products or services is expressly given or implied by Royal Bank of Canada or any of its affiliates.
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