{"id":22980,"date":"2024-04-19T10:10:18","date_gmt":"2024-04-19T14:10:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-ca\/?p=22980"},"modified":"2024-04-19T10:10:19","modified_gmt":"2024-04-19T14:10:19","slug":"dont-fight-or-fear-the-fed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-ca\/insights\/dont-fight-or-fear-the-fed","title":{"rendered":"Don\u2019t fight (or fear) the Fed"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Atul Bhatia, CFA<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n When it comes to the Fed, the default view of many investors often seems\n to be that high rates are bad and low rates are good, and that the central\n bank is nearly omnipotent, particularly when it comes to crisis\n management. While we believe there is some element of truth to these\n statements, we also think they fall far short of reality and are unhelpful\n in thinking about the economy and the central bank.\n <\/p>\n \n

Laissez les bon temps rouler<\/h2>\n

\n The financial press tends to portray the current level of Fed rates\u2014around\n 5.38 percent\u2014as high, with Fed rate cuts being the key to letting the good times\n roll. It is true that lower interest rates tend to push the price of\n assets\u2014such as stocks, bonds, and real estate\u2014higher, as the current value\n of future cash flows increases in a lower interest rate environment. But\n this is largely a one-time effect\u2014it\u2019s a shot of adrenaline to securities\u2019\n pricing.\n <\/p>\n

\n This is likely to be excellent news for a short-term or leveraged\n investor, but for a long-term investor, the difference is largely one of\n timing. The investment portfolio will likely produce the same or\n substantially similar lifetime cash flows under either interest rate\n regime, but low rates lead us to ascribe a higher current value to future\n gains. And we think that early recognition of future earnings is an\n absolute negative for investors who are still contributing to their\n investment portfolios. For any given investment amount, they can buy fewer\n assets.\n <\/p>\n

\n There are other mixed impacts to lower interest rates. They can contribute\n to economic growth and may lead to higher earnings multiples on some\n assets, but they also reduce reinvestment income on dividends and new\n investments. We believe these impacts largely cancel out for a typical\n 60\/40 mix of stocks and bonds, although it depends heavily on the\n underlying assumptions. We think it\u2019s fair to say, however, that the bulk\n of the perceived positive impact from low rates comes from a one-time pop\n in asset prices.\n <\/p>\n \n

Low rates can come at a high cost<\/h2>\n

\n The questionable benefits of low interest rates come with real costs. Even\n a cursory glance at this century\u2019s financial history provides stark\n reminders of the pitfalls of easy monetary policy.\n <\/p>\n

\n We think the obvious risk is inflation. The latest iteration of near-zero\n interest rates was supposed to lead to only \u201ctransitory\u201d price impacts; a\n view that was demonstrably incorrect and has since been abandoned by the\n Fed. We think inflationary risks are particularly acute when\u2014like\n now\u2014labour markets and consumer demand are stronger than economic models\n suggest.\n <\/p>\n

\n Even more pernicious than inflation, however, is the role of low interest\n rates on capital allocation. Put simply, when the Fed keeps low risk rates\n low, investors are forced to take additional\u2014and in many cases\n unwanted\u2014risks to meet their income needs. The lead-up to the global\n financial crisis, we believe, is the quintessential example. We have\n serious doubts if CDO-squareds and subprime mortgages would have sounded\n attractive to investors had they been able to earn a decent return on\n lower-risk investments.\n <\/p>\n \n

It\u2019s the economy\u2014pure and simple<\/h2>\n

\n More generally, we believe there\u2019s nothing to fear\u2014and a lot to like\u2014about\n an economy that can function with higher interest rates. If companies can\n continue to grow revenues and earnings when rates are high, one of the\n main implications is that investors can be fairly compensated across the\n capital structure. Bond holders can earn a decent return on their\n investment, and shareholders can see growth in earnings and potentially\n dividends.\n <\/p>\n

\n Taking a step back, we find it somewhat odd that the Fed is even\n contemplating rate cuts. The institution is charged with creating full\n employment, consistent with price stability. We do not see any meaningful\n indication of labour market weakness, while inflation remains a concern.\n Not only was the most recent consumer price index report higher than\n target, but there are also troubling signs of inflation becoming embedded\n in consumer expectations. The Fed\u2019s preferred measure of this factor\u2014a\n market derived indicator of annual inflation over a five-year period\n starting five years in the future\u2014remains stubbornly above target and\n pre-pandemic levels.\n <\/p>\n

\n With the economy functioning for workers, companies, and investors, we\n think a stable Fed policy rate is not a particularly troubling outcome.\n <\/p>\n \n

Back to the future?<\/h3>\n

\n The U.S. economy has previously functioned well at this interest rate\n level\n <\/h4>\n
\n
\n \"U.S.\n \n The line chart compares year-over-year U.S. consumer price index\n inflation, the U.S. unemployment rate, and the Federal Reserve\u2019s\n overnight interest rate target since July 2004. In 2006 and 2007, when\n inflation and unemployment were at or near target levels set by the\n Federal Reserve, the overnight interest rate (5.25 percent) was similar to\n today\u2019s (5.375 percent).\n <\/p>\n
    \n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n U.S. unemployment (left)\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Consumer Price Index, y\/y change (left)\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Overnight policy rate, target midpoint (right)\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

    Source – RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n

    Fed omnipotence, well, sort of<\/h2>\n

    \n The Fed can effectively set short-term interest rates and it has the\n capacity to fix long-term interest rates\u2014at least for some time. It can\n also finance any quantity of investments for any length of time. This last\n power was critical in the bounce back from the global financial crisis as\n it bought time for assets to recover.\n <\/p>\n

    \n The Fed\u2019s power in a financial crisis was further demonstrated during the\n regional bank turmoil of March 2023. At the time, we emphasized that the\n central bank could stop contagion whenever it liked\u2014the issues banks faced\n then were a quintessential financing issue. Most current active investors,\n ourselves included, have mainly seen financial crises, leading many of us,\n we believe, to overemphasize the Fed\u2019s capacity to deal with any economic\n problem.\n <\/p>\n

    \n The pandemic, however, emphasized the limits of Fed power: the institution\n has much less impact in the physical world than in the financial world.\n Supply chain problems are largely outside the Fed\u2019s ability to influence.\n There\u2019s no level of interest rates that can make a port operate more\n quickly or make ships sail faster. In theory, the Fed could force interest\n rates high enough to bring demand in line with reduced supply, but\n crushing the economy to match a temporary supply reduction is an idea only\n a theorist could love.\n <\/p>\n \n

    Perils of oversimplification<\/h2>\n

    \n The Fed is undoubtedly a powerful global institution. In our view,\n however, the discourse on the central bank too often becomes cheerleading\n for low rates while emphasizing the Fed\u2019s nearly magical powers. A more\n nuanced reading of the institution and its policies makes clear that\n higher rates are not to be feared and that Fed support can only go so far\n in times of turmoil.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    The U.S. central bank is an incredibly powerful institution that can exert influence on essentially any U.S. dollar-denominated asset. However, we believe the Fed is also widely misunderstood.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":22981,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2024-04-18T09:44:23","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[73],"tags":[],"rbcwm_content_owner":[607],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[75,66],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[74],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-22980","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_segment-business-owners-and-entrepreneurs","rbcwm_segment-individuals-and-families","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"The U.S. central bank is an incredibly powerful institution that can exert influence on essentially any U.S. dollar-denominated asset. 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