{"id":24661,"date":"2024-07-26T13:15:07","date_gmt":"2024-07-26T17:15:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-ca\/?p=24661"},"modified":"2024-07-26T13:15:09","modified_gmt":"2024-07-26T17:15:09","slug":"what-dueling-data-and-the-feds-dual-mandate-mean-for-interest-rate-cuts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-ca\/insights\/what-dueling-data-and-the-feds-dual-mandate-mean-for-interest-rate-cuts","title":{"rendered":"What dueling data and the Fed\u2019s dual mandate mean for interest rate cuts"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Atul Bhatia, CFA<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n In 1977, the U.S. Congress updated the Federal Reserve Act to lay out\n three clear goals for the U.S. central bank: \u201cmaximum employment, stable\n prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.\u201d The third of these goals\n has effectively been subsumed into the other two, with economists deciding\n that stable prices and maximum employment will inevitably result in\n moderate long-term interest rates. The result is the Fed\u2019s so-called dual\n mandate to keep unemployment as low as possible while keeping consumer\n inflation at or near two percent.\n <\/p>\n

\n While the dual mandate is a legal reality for the central bank, we believe\n it\u2019s a mistake to think the Fed pursues both objectives simultaneously.\n Instead, we see the policies as sequential, with price stability a\n prerequisite for providing labour market support. In our view, the central\n bank\u2019s upcoming July meeting is likely to be the last where price\n stability considerations dominate, with labour market concerns\n transitioning to the forefront of Fed policymaking in September. The\n result is that employment data\u2014already important to investors\u2014could play\n an even greater role in driving bond markets in the months ahead.\n <\/p>\n \n

Inflation under control<\/h2>\n

\n We believe that the June Consumer Price Index shifted the burden of proof\n in the inflation debate. The trend leading into June was positive for the\n price stability argument, but the latest data\u2014which we discussed in a\n recent\n report <\/rbc-icon><\/a>\u2014make it unreasonable, in our view, to maintain that higher-for-longer\n interest rates are needed to achieve price stability in an economically\n relevant time horizon.\n <\/p>\n

\n This does not mean that there are no risks to the inflation forecast. We\n would expect continued volatility in monthly price data, for instance.\n More importantly, the U.S. economy remains vulnerable to policy and\n geopolitical shocks. But barring significant external events, we expect\n investors to largely look through any single month of disappointing price\n data, given the solid backing to the narrative of falling inflation.\n <\/p>\n \n

Labour market wild card and mixed messages<\/h2>\n

\n The relative comfort on inflation should give the Fed room to shift to the\n second half of its dual mandate, the goal of full employment.\n <\/p>\n

\n Here, the picture is mixed. Payrolls continue to grow at a solid clip,\n with over 200,000 jobs created in June 2024 alone. That level of growth\n really doesn\u2019t provide much sense of urgency for rate cuts and argues for\n a wait-and-see approach, in our view. But at the same time, the\n unemployment rate shifted higher, topping four percent for the first time\n since late 2021. We think unemployment levels give a much stronger\n argument in favour of pushing rate cuts into the discussion, even if part\n of the rise is attributable to a growing labour force.\n <\/p>\n \n

How many jobs in the U.S.? Depends who you ask<\/h3>\n

Households report nearly four million fewer jobs than payroll count<\/h4>\n
\n
\n \"U.S.\n

\n The chart compares the total employment in the U.S. as calculated by\n the Bureau of Labor Statistics Household Survey and the employer\n nonfarm payroll count, from June 2004 through June 2024. The household\n survey shows nearly four million fewer jobs currently than reported by\n employers.\n <\/p>\n

    \n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Household survey difference from NFP (right)\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Adjusted household survey employment (left)\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Total nonfarm payrolls (NFP) (left)\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

    \n Source – RBC Wealth Management, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics,\n Bloomberg\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

    \n There are a few reasons why the two indicators can point in different\n directions.\n <\/p>\n

    \n One is their source. Payroll numbers come from employers, while\n unemployment data\u2014which by definition includes people who currently lack\n an employer\u2014comes from a survey of households. This leads to workers with\n multiple jobs contributing to higher totals in the employer count than in\n the household count, for instance.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Another difference is the definition of employment\u2014the household survey\n has a much broader concept of working that includes the self-employed,\n workers on leave, and household employees. The net result is that the\n household survey usually reflects a higher overall level of employment\n than the employer survey.\n <\/p>\n

    \n The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has a robust statistical approach to\n account for these differences. Since the mid-1990s, the federal agency has\n published an adjusted household survey that has closely tracked the\n employer-derived payroll counts. Unfortunately, that close relationship\n has broken down over the past two years. Adjusted household data from June\n shows nearly four million fewer jobs in the U.S. than reflected in the\n employer data.\n <\/p>\n

    \n The trend in household data is also decidedly more negative. Total\n adjusted household employment shows a loss of nearly 230,000 jobs in the\n U.S. economy since August 2023. In that same period, employers reported a\n net 2.2 million increase in payrolls. Discrepancies between the adjusted\n numbers and the employer counts have occurred in the past, but not at this\n magnitude.\n <\/p>\n

    \n We have two reasons to give credence to the adjusted household survey.\n First, while it may seem like a simple process to just add up payroll\n data, one complication is that businesses are continually opening and\n closing. The BLS adjusts for this dynamic, but that adjustment may be\n insufficient. The early phase of the pandemic saw significant business\n creation, and it would not be surprising to think that business closures\n are now above trend. Another potential issue is the rise of so-called gig\n workers. The BLS adjustments are based on historical data that may not\n fully reflect the prevalence of this type of household income generation.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Obsessing over survey methodologies can distract from the real goal, which\n is gauging the strength of the labour market. Employment levels are a key\n input in that analysis, but we also have other measures like economic\n activity, wage data, and levels of household debt delinquencies. By the\n Fed\u2019s estimate, after looking at the broad economic context, unemployment\n is still slightly below the theoretical level for \u201cfull employment,\u201d but\n central banks need to account for policy lags as it takes time for rate\n changes to filter through the economy.\n <\/p>\n

    \n On balance, and even accounting for pockets of economic strength, we think\n it is more reasonable than not to conclude the labour market is likely\n softer than reflected in headline payroll growth.\n <\/p>\n \n

    Investors see deeper Fed cuts after July data<\/h3>\n

    \n Interest rate futures reflect an additional 25 basis point move by January\n 2025\n <\/h4>\n
    \n
    \n \"Interest\n

    \n The column chart compares the overnight U.S. interest rates at several\n points in the next six months as implied by interest rate futures prices\n on July 1 and July 23, 2024. The estimates (July 1 vs July 23) are: July\n 31, 5.31% vs 5.32%; September 18, 5.16% vs 5.06%; November 7, 5.06% vs\n 4.90%; December 18, 4.88% vs 4.68%; January 29, 2025, 4.75% vs 4.50%.\n <\/p>\n

      \n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n Implied overnight rates as of July 1\n <\/li>\n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n Implied overnight rates as of July 23\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

      Source – RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n

      See you in September?<\/h2>\n

      \n We think the trend in inflation data and the Fed\u2019s dual mandate give the\n central bank the latitude to consider cuts as early as next week\u2019s\n meeting. But it\u2019s the second leg of the central bank\u2019s job\u2014the goal of\n keeping folks working\u2014that will provide the driver to lower rates, and we\n think that\u2019s a September call.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Relative comfort on inflation should allow the Fed to shift its focus to the goal of full employment. But with labour market data pointing in different directions, we sift through the mixed messages and the impact on the Fed\u2019s rate cut plans.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":24662,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2024-07-25T13:00:52","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[73],"tags":[],"rbcwm_content_owner":[607],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[74],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-24661","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"Relative comfort on inflation should allow the Fed to shift its focus to the goal of full employment. But with labour market data pointing in different directions, we sift through the mixed messages and the impact on the Fed\u2019s rate cut plans.","rbcwm_post_author":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":[],"disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[11937],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"\nWhat dueling data and the Fed\u2019s dual mandate mean for interest rate cuts<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Relative comfort on inflation should allow the Fed to shift its focus to the goal of full employment. 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