{"id":24922,"date":"2024-08-15T17:05:58","date_gmt":"2024-08-15T21:05:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-ca\/?p=24922"},"modified":"2024-08-21T16:31:18","modified_gmt":"2024-08-21T20:31:18","slug":"north-american-labour-markets-past-the-point-of-no-return","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-ca\/insights\/north-american-labour-markets-past-the-point-of-no-return","title":{"rendered":"North American labour markets: Past the point of no return?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Josh Nye <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bad news is bad news again<\/h2>\n

\n A number of dynamics were at play during the recent equity selloff and\n bond rally, from disappointing corporate earnings reports to market\n positioning, but we think growing concern about the health of the U.S.\n labour market was central to this recent bout of volatility.\n <\/p>\n

\n The surprise jump in the jobless rate in July wasn\u2019t exactly an outlier as\n far as data misses go, and most have been taken in stride to this point.\n Cooling in the U.S. labour market was previously seen by investors as a\n positive development\u2014a \u201cbad news is good news\u201d dynamic\u2014as it would allow\n the U.S. Federal Reserve to gradually lower interest rates and relieve\n pressure on businesses and households.\n <\/p>\n

\n But with unemployment trending higher and the Fed yet to budge from its\n restrictive stance, there is increasing concern among investors that the\n central bank\u2019s monetary policy is behind the curve and it\u2019s too late to\n prevent a further rise in the jobless rate. You know \u201cbad news is bad\n news\u201d again when a disappointing jobs report leads to calls for\n policymakers to make an emergency, inter-meeting rate cut.\n <\/p>\n \n

\u201cRules are made to be broken\u201d<\/h2>\n

\n Adding to the handwringing, the upside surprise in July\u2019s unemployment\n rate triggered the Sahm Rule, a reliable recession indicator that\n investors have been keeping a close eye on. The Sahm Rule, named after\n Claudia Sahm, a macroeconomist who worked at the Fed, states that \u201cwhen\n the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate is 0.5\n percentage point or more above its low over the prior twelve months, we\n are in the early months of recession.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

\n The math sounds a bit convoluted (it was dreamed up by an economist, after\n all) but it essentially says that, historically, when the jobless rate\n increases meaningfully in a one-year period, it doesn\u2019t tend to stop\n there. When the Sahm Rule has been triggered in the past, the unemployment\n rate has gone on to increase by at least two percentage points from its\n cycle lows and the U.S. economy has experienced a recession.\n <\/p>\n

\n But the Sahm Rule was never meant as a recession predictor, and Claudia\n Sahm herself calls it \u201ca historical pattern, not a law of nature.\u201d She\n adds that \u201crules are made to be broken\u201d and if her eponymous rule is to\n break, this unusual post-pandemic cycle could be the occasion.\n <\/p>\n

\n Indeed, there are reasons to think this time is different. The current\n unemployment rate is the lowest at which the Sahm Rule has been triggered\n since 1953. Thus far, the U.S. labour market has simply eased from\n previously tight levels to conditions that could still be characterized as\n consistent with \u201cfull employment.\u201d Despite rising joblessness, there\n continue to be more vacancies than unemployed persons.\n <\/p>\n

\n The concern, though\u2014and the dynamic captured in the Sahm Rule\u2014is that\n layoffs will beget more layoffs as a precautionary pullback in consumer\n spending causes businesses to reduce headcount. But as RBC Capital Markets\n points out, the Sahm Rule has been triggered without the usual increase in\n job losses. At this point, the rise in unemployment has been driven more\n by new entrants into the labour force having difficulty finding a job,\n resulting in a loss of potential income rather than actual income.\n <\/p>\n \n

\n The Sahm Rule has been triggered without the usual increase in jobless\n claims\n <\/h3>\n

\n Change in initial jobless claims (thousands) between unemployment rate low\n and Sahm Rule trigger\n <\/h4>\n
\n
\n \"Change\n

\n The line chart shows the change in the weekly U.S. unemployment rate\n for nine periods, each of which begins with a low point in the\n unemployment rate and ends with the triggering of the Sahm Rule. In\n all previous periods (1970, 1974, 1980, 1981, 1990, 2001, 2008, and\n 2020), the change in jobless claims was largely positive, and followed\n a generally upward trend. In 2024, however, the change remained\n negative for more than 50 weeks until the Sahm Rule was triggered.\n <\/p>\n

    \n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n 1970\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n 1974\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n 1980\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n 1981\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n 1990\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n 2001\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n 2008\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n 2020\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n 2024\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

    *UER stands for unemployment rate.<\/p>\n

    Source – RBC Capital Markets<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

    \n Consumer spending has held up thus far and there are few signs of an\n increase in precautionary savings as households brace for a slowdown. The\n Q2 earnings season saw some management teams express concern about the\n health of the U.S. consumer. But with the economy growing by 2.8 percent\n in Q2 and the Atlanta Fed tracking a similar increase in Q3, we think\n there\u2019s reason to doubt we\u2019re in the early months of a recession.\n <\/p>\n \n

    Sahm story in Canada?<\/h2>\n

    \n Sahm proposes a similar rule for Canada using a slightly higher 0.6\n percentage point trigger for the increase in the unemployment rate. But\n the Canadian version doesn\u2019t have as spotless a record as in the U.S.,\n which could be why it attracts less attention. There was little fanfare\n when it was triggered late last year, and certainly no calls for an\n emergency rate cut by the Bank of Canada.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Layoffs account for a larger share of the increase in unemployment\n compared with the U.S., but other factors are also at play in Canada. In\n the two years since Canada\u2019s unemployment rate troughed, students entering\n the labour force and failing to find a job have accounted for as much of\n the increase in unemployment as have permanent layoffs.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Immigration has boosted Canadian labour force growth to an even greater\n degree than in the U.S. But the economy has had difficulty creating enough\n jobs to absorb all of these new entrants, and nearly half of the increase\n in unemployment has been among recent immigrants and non-permanent\n residents.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Unlike in the U.S., Canada\u2019s household savings rate is trending higher and\n consumer spending has been sluggish, slowing on a per capita basis over\n the past two years. Canada has avoided two consecutive quarterly declines\n in headline GDP but could be said to be in a \u201cper capita recession\u201d with\n population-adjusted GDP down more than 3.5 percent from its cycle highs. A\n 1.6 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate from its cycle lows\n is also consistent with past \u201cmild\u201d recessions.\n <\/p>\n \n

    It pays to be defensive<\/h2>\n

    \n Unusual post-pandemic labour market dynamics leave room for hope that this\n time will indeed be different. But leaving room for hope is much different\n than positioning entirely for a soft landing, and we think some of the\n recent financial market volatility reflects investors in the latter camp\n being caught by weaker-than-expected economic data.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Whether the current period will prove to be a growth scare or the early\n stages of a recession is still unknown. But we think investors should\n evaluate defensive options in their portfolios, as advocated in the August\n Global Insight<\/a\n >. We recently examined some of the\n nagging questions<\/a\n >\n facing equity markets and suggested holding no higher than a Market Weight\n position in U.S. and global equities.\n <\/p>\n

    \n While fixed income has rallied amid deteriorating economic data and\n growing rate cut expectations, current yields remain attractive relative\n to much of the past two decades. Tight corporate bond spreads mean\n investors are receiving limited compensation for taking on credit risk,\n leading us to favour higher-quality corporate and government bonds. In our\n assessment, investors who haven\u2019t already taken the opportunity to add\n some duration and lock in today\u2019s high yields for longer should consider\n doing so on market pullbacks.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Recession risks have risen slightly as labour markets in the U.S. and Canada have cooled. We\u2019re not past the point of no return, but investors should evaluate defensive options in their portfolios.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":142,"featured_media":24923,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2024-08-15T16:41:24","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[73],"tags":[],"rbcwm_content_owner":[607],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[75,66],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[74],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-24922","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_segment-business-owners-and-entrepreneurs","rbcwm_segment-individuals-and-families","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"Recession risks have risen slightly as labour markets in the U.S. and Canada have cooled. We\u2019re not past the point of no return, but investors should evaluate defensive options in their portfolios.","rbcwm_post_author":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":[],"disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[11937],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"\nNorth American labour markets: Past the point of no return?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Recession risks have risen slightly as labour markets in the U.S. and Canada have cooled. 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