{"id":25666,"date":"2024-11-01T10:03:55","date_gmt":"2024-11-01T14:03:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-ca\/?p=25666"},"modified":"2024-11-01T10:31:36","modified_gmt":"2024-11-01T14:31:36","slug":"debunking-debt-disaster","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-ca\/insights\/debunking-debt-disaster","title":{"rendered":"Debunking debt disaster"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Atul Bhatia, CFA<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n The U.S. government has an incomprehensible amount of debt. The number is\n so large\u2014$35 trillion and counting\u2014that we think it has lost any meaning.\n We find it incredible that Treasury debt to other U.S. government\n agencies\u2014if broken out as a standalone\u2014would itself be the third-most\n indebted nation on Earth, after the U.S. and Japan. Interest on the debt\n will soon be a trillion-dollar expense, larger than U.S. government\n spending on veteran benefits, education, and transportation combined.\n <\/p>\n

\n The magnitude of these numbers has created a cottage industry of doom\n forecasting, with plenty of hyperbole but little analysis. We have\n previously\n discussed<\/a\n >\n what we see as the realities of the U.S. national debt, but we think it\u2019s\n helpful to take another look at some of the more pernicious and persistent\n debt myths.\n <\/p>\n \n

Myth #1: The U.S. economy is dangerously overleveraged<\/h2>\n

\n The biggest source of confusion that we see on the U.S. debt is that the\n number tells us something important. It doesn\u2019t\u2014at least not by itself.\n That\u2019s because the government is only a small part of the U.S. economy.\n What matters for macroeconomic purposes is how much all stakeholders,\n public and private, have borrowed. And when we layer in household and\n corporate borrowing, it\u2019s apparent that the U.S. debt picture is\n relatively benign. Canadians, for instance, have leveraged more of their\n future production than Americans have, and U.S. borrowing is on par with\n Sweden and the UK.\n <\/p>\n \n

\n Not so very different after all: A broader measure of indebtedness shows\n the U.S. is fairly typical\n <\/h3>\n

Debt as percentage of GDP<\/h4>\n
\n
\n \"Debt\n

\n The column chart shows debt in 2022 as a percentage of national gross\n domestic product (GDP) for eight countries (ordered from least to most\n total debt): Germany (194% of GDP), Ireland (219%), the United Kingdom\n (252%), Italy (254%), China (272%), the United States (273%), Sweden\n (274%), and Canada (322%). Debt is broken down into categories of\n general government debt, household debt, and nonfinancial corporate\n debt.\n <\/p>\n

    \n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Nonfinancial corporate debt\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Household debt\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n General government debt\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

    \n Source – International Monetary Fund; percentage of 2022 GDP including\n bonds, loans, and debt securities\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

    \n Worrying about government debt is analogous to someone claiming to be debt\n free because they paid off last month\u2019s credit card bill. That\u2019s a tough\n argument if the person still has a mortgage, car loan, or student debt.\n Whether at the household or the national level, we\u2019re unlikely to reach\n the right conclusion if we only look at one slice of the pie.\n <\/p>\n \n

    Myth #2: Investors need to prepare for an upcoming U.S. default<\/h2>\n

    \n Defaults generally occur when borrowers lack the resources to fulfill\n their promises. That\u2019s not likely to happen for the U.S. government, since\n the Treasury has only promised to give investors a set number of dollars\n at specified future dates. By happy coincidence, the U.S. government can\n manufacture dollars at the push of a button. In those circumstances, it\n would be an active choice for the U.S. to fail to meet its obligations.\n And given the lifespan of political careers after a sovereign default, we\n think it\u2019s a choice U.S. leadership is not going to make.\n <\/p>\n

    \n As we\u2019ve discussed\n before<\/a\n >, the legitimate concern around excess borrowing is not default but\n inflation. The dollars will be paid as promised, but investors won\u2019t be\n able to buy as much with the proceeds. This is a genuine risk. But it\u2019s a\n much different concern than default. Sovereign defaults are economic\n catastrophes for most strata of society and tend to precede years of slow\n growth. Inflation is a serious problem, but it\u2019s easier to deal with and\n usually orders of magnitude less severe than defaults.\n <\/p>\n \n

    Myth #3: Blame the politicians, they\u2019re the ones in control<\/h2>\n

    \n The prevailing narrative is that profligacy created our debts. Whether its\n crazy spending programs or unfunded tax cuts, debt is just a result of\n poor political leadership.\n <\/p>\n

    \n To be fair, there\u2019s an element of truth to that view. Raising taxes is a\n political no-go, and there are certain programs that must be funded.\n Unfortunately, the uncuttable program costs exceed the un-raiseable tax\n proceeds. That\u2019s a structural political issue, and it\u2019s likely here to\n stay for the foreseeable future.\n <\/p>\n

    \n But the reality is the big run-up in government borrowing hasn\u2019t been a\n result of political will. The biggest increases are from the global\n financial crisis and the pandemic. Without those two events, the U.S.\n debt-to-GDP ratio would likely be around 40 points lower. It\u2019s difficult\n to argue, in our view, that politicians really had a choice when COVID\n struck or when the banking system veered toward collapse.\n <\/p>\n

    \n This again highlights the point that the government is only a relatively\n small part of the economy. If we look back to the last U.S. budget surplus\n in the 1990s, there were movements to control spending and raise taxes,\n but a major driver of the surplus was the rise of the internet and the\n concurrent economic growth.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Debt reduction is less about annual fiscal budget tightening than about\n avoiding catastrophes and reaping the fruits of innovation.\n <\/p>\n \n

    U.S. debt rise is driven by crisis response<\/h3>\n

    Federal debt held by the public (% of GDP)<\/h4>\n
    \n
    \n \"U.S.\n

    \n The chart shows the percentage of U.S. federal debt held by the public\n as a percentage of national GDP, and compares it with the\n year-over-year change in the measure. The chart shows that nearly half\n of existing debt was created in 2009-2013 and in 2020.\n <\/p>\n

      \n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n Actual (left)\n <\/li>\n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n Forecast (left)\n <\/li>\n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n Year-over-year change (right)\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

      \n Source – RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; 2024 and later represents\n Bloomberg consensus forecast\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n

      Myth #4: Reducing debt will make everything better right away<\/h2>\n

      \n The old adage to \u201cbe careful what you wish for since you just might get\n it\u201d is particularly apt when it comes to investors and government debt\n reduction.\n <\/p>\n

      \n The rise in U.S. government debt has been accompanied by solid investment\n returns across most\u2014if not all\u2014asset classes. Debt-funded government\n spending played a real role in those results. At its core, debt is about\n moving demand through time; borrowing adds to today\u2019s demand and repayment\n reduces today\u2019s demand. If the U.S. were to shift to debt reduction, it\u2019s\n very likely that economic growth\u2014and by extension corporate earnings\u2014would\n decline, at least in the short term. Investor optimism around lower debt\n could help offset some of the effects of slower growth, but there is\n little empirical support for that idea.\n <\/p>\n \n

      Reality check<\/h2>\n

      \n Despite the scary and oft-repeated headlines around U.S. debt, we struggle\n to see what keeps the fear going. Equity markets are at or near all-time\n highs; borrowing costs across the economy are largely manageable; and\n economic growth is strong with inflation declining. This has largely been\n the case for the U.S. for most of the past four decades, a period marked\n by rising government debt.\n <\/p>\n

      \n Is every dollar of U.S. government spending efficient? Of course not.\n Could tax policy be made more rational and do a better job of fomenting\n growth? Absolutely. But it\u2019s a far cry from saying the world is not ideal\n to saying that we are on the verge of an economic apocalypse. To us, that\n leap, like much of the discussion on the U.S. debt, is better suited to\n economic mythology than financial reality.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Myths may be important to folklore, but they\u2019re not helpful in finance. We look at the facts behind some of the common myths surrounding the U.S. national debt.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":25667,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2024-11-01T09:50:03","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[73],"tags":[711,193,110],"rbcwm_content_owner":[607],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[74],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-25666","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-global-financial-crisis","tag-inflation","tag-u-s-dollar","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"Myths may be important to folklore, but they\u2019re not helpful in finance. We look at the facts behind some of the common myths surrounding the U.S. national debt.","rbcwm_post_author":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":[],"disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[11937],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"\nDebunking debt disaster<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Myths may be important to folklore, but they\u2019re not helpful in finance. 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