BRICS members<\/h6>\n \n - Brazil<\/li>\n
- Russia<\/li>\n
- India<\/li>\n
- China<\/li>\n
- South Africa<\/li>\n
- Egypt<\/li>\n
- Ethiopia<\/li>\n
- Iran<\/li>\n
- United Arab Emirates<\/li>\n <\/ul>\n <\/div>\n \n
Other countries that participated<\/h6>\n \n \n \n - Armenia<\/li>\n
- Azerbaijan<\/li>\n
- Bahrain<\/li>\n
- Bangladesh<\/li>\n
- Belarus<\/li>\n
- Bolivia<\/li>\n
- Congo<\/li>\n
- Cuba<\/li>\n
- Indonesia<\/li>\n
- Kazakhstan<\/li>\n
- Kyrgyzstan<\/li>\n
- Laos<\/li>\n
- Malaysia<\/li>\n <\/ul>\n <\/div>\n \n
\n - Mauritania<\/li>\n
- Mongolia<\/li>\n
- Nicaragua<\/li>\n
- Saudi Arabia*<\/li>\n
- Serbia<\/li>\n
- Sri Lanka<\/li>\n
- Tajikistan<\/li>\n
- Thailand<\/li>\n
- Turkey<\/li>\n
- Turkmenistan<\/li>\n
- Uzbekistan<\/li>\n
- Venezuela<\/li>\n
- Vietnam<\/li>\n <\/ul>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
\n * Saudi Arabia received a BRICS membership invitation in August 2023,\n subject to entry in January 2024. The country has not yet officially\n clarified its status in the association. It did not participate in the\n 2024 summit meeting for members only but did participate in the summit\n outreach sessions and various other events during the year.\n <\/p>\n
\n Source – RBC Wealth Management, country delegation participation\n statements, first and second plenary sessions of the XVI BRICS Summit in\n the Outreach\/BRICS Plus format\n <\/p>\n \n \n
Beyond the hype: How BRICS sees the world<\/h2>\n
\n Summit after summit, there continues to be misinformation, disinformation,\n and confusion about what BRICS is and what it is not.\n <\/p>\n
\n Before we assess the summit\u2019s key developments, here\u2019s our quick take on\n what BRICS is about and how it sees the world:\n <\/p>\n
\n - \n It\u2019s a group of developing countries that seek to form a \u201cmultipolar\n world.\u201d\n <\/li>\n
- \n These nations think the period that began after the Cold War ended\u2014when\n the U.S. became the sole major power and basically led the global order\n (a period often described as a \u201cunipolar world\u201d)\u2014is in the process of\n shifting or has already shifted into a new era.\n <\/li>\n
- \n They believe they deserve a bigger say in global affairs.\n <\/li>\n
- \n They highly value national sovereignty and seek to strengthen it for\n their own countries.\n <\/li>\n
- \n They seek a \u201cjust world order\u201d and a \u201cfairer\u201d global system based on\n mutual respect, and promote inclusiveness and consensus building.\n <\/li>\n
- \n They desire deeper trade, financial, strategic, and cultural ties with\n each other.\n <\/li>\n
- \n They support each other diplomatically where they agree. Where they\n don\u2019t agree, they don\u2019t exert excessive pressure on each other. They\n attempt to reason and persuade, not threaten.\n <\/li>\n
- \n They don\u2019t interfere in each other\u2019s domestic affairs, and strongly\n object to when Western countries attempt to do this to their countries.\n <\/li>\n
- \n They oppose what are called \u201cunilateral economic sanctions\u201d and\n secondary sanctions. Many BRICS members deem such sanctions as \u201cillegal\u201d\n because they are not approved by the UN Security Council.\n <\/li>\n
- \n They are against using currencies\u2014the U.S. dollar in particular\u2014as a\n foreign policy weapon, and instead favour good old-fashioned diplomacy.\n <\/li>\n
- \n They advocate reforming and improving\u2014not eliminating\u2014Bretton Woods-era\n global financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund\n (IMF) and the World Bank.\n <\/li>\n
- \n They believe the World Trade Organization has become dysfunctional and\n is badly in need of reform.\n <\/li>\n
- \n They prioritize expanding the UN Security Council and restructuring\n other UN bodies to give countries in Asia, Latin America, and Africa a\n greater voice. They think Western-aligned countries should no longer\n have a disproportionate say in these bodies.\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n
\n BRICS is not designed to be a formal political and economic bloc like the\n EU.\n <\/p>\n
\n In fact, its members flatly reject the term \u201cbloc\u201d and don\u2019t seek to\n become one. And they repeatedly assert that they\u2019re \u201cnot against anyone.\u201d\n India, in particular, does not want BRICS to be viewed as an anti-Western\n entity.\n <\/p>\n
\n Nor is BRICS designed to be a formal military security alliance like NATO.\n There is no military component. Turkey\u2019s participation in this year\u2019s\n summit and desire to cooperate further with BRICS\u2014the first and only NATO\n country to do so thus far\u2014underscores this. If BRICS had military aims,\n any participation of a NATO country would be ruled out.\n <\/p>\n
\n Some BRICS members, such as India, the United Arab Emirates, and Brazil,\n have very good relations with the U.S. and the collective West and intend\n to maintain strong ties.\n <\/p>\n \n
Expanding the BRICS footprint<\/h2>\n
\n Regardless of how one sees the BRICS association and the various countries\n involved, we think it\u2019s impossible to brush them aside.\n <\/p>\n
\n The group has signaled it intends to expand by inviting certain countries\n among those who attended the summit to become a \u201cBRICS partner,\u201d which\n would be a new, next step toward the full membership process. In the past,\n BRICS membership invitations have required the consent of all existing\n members and some regional balance.\n <\/p>\n
\n It\u2019s our belief that other summit attendees would likely be invited to\n various BRICS events in the future or to participate informally in other\n ways. There were more than 200 events this year with more to come.\n <\/p>\n
\n It\u2019s also prudent to pay attention to BRICS members and any new partners\n given the dramatic geopolitical changes a number of these countries are\n involved in. Or, as the Chinese leadership likes to say, such changes that\n have not been seen in 100 years.\n <\/p>\n \n
Economic heft equals clout<\/h2>\n
\n BRICS countries believe they deserve a bigger say in global affairs\n because collectively they have considerable economic heft and natural\n resources wealth, which they can translate into economic clout.\n <\/p>\n
\n As Bloomberg News pointed out this week, \u201cThe world economy is set to rely\n even more heavily on the BRICS group of emerging economies to drive\n expansion, rather than their wealthier Western peers,\u201d according to the\n IMF\u2019s latest forecasts.\n <\/p>\n
\n The IMF expects by far the biggest contributions to global GDP growth from\n 2024 to 2029 in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms to come from China,\n followed by India and then the U.S. The next tier is anticipated to be led\n by Indonesia, and then Russia, Brazil, Turkey, Egypt, Germany, Japan, and\n Bangladesh. Among these 11 countries, all but the U.S., Germany, and Japan\n attended the BRICS summit.\n <\/p>\n
\n The economies of the nine BRICS member states already exceed the size of\n G7 economies in PPP terms, and the IMF forecasts the gap to widen.\n <\/p>\n \n
BRICS economic clout is increasing<\/h3>\n \n Share of global GDP based on purchasing power parity in U.S. dollars*\n <\/h4>\n \n \n ![\"Share](\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/global\/bigger-brics-en-chart-1.png\"\n)
\n \n The line chart shows the proportion of global GDP based on purchasing\n power parity for G7 and BRICS countries from 1995 through 2029; data\n from 2024 through 2029 are based on IMF projections. In 1995, there\n was a very wide gap between the two groups with the G7 at 46% and\n BRICS at 18.5%. The G7’s GDP as a proportion of global GDP has\n declined meaningfully since then, while the BRICS countries’ GDP as a\n proportion of global GDP has steadily climbed. The IMF projects this\n trend will continue through its forecast period of 2029. The G7 and 9\n BRICS countries’ share of global GDP was equal in 2017 at 32%.\n Thereafter G7 had declined to 29.5% and BRICS increased to 35.8% by\n 2023. By 2029, the IMF projects the G7 will decline to 27% and BRICS\n will rise to 38%.\n <\/p>\n \n GDP of the nine BRICS members surpassed G7 GDP in 2018, and the trend\n is expected to continue. Even before BRICS membership expansion, the\n previous five BRICS members had surpassed the G7 in 2021.\n <\/p>\n \n - \n <\/div>\n G7 countries\n <\/li>\n
- \n <\/div>\n 9 BRICS members\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n
\n * Data from 2024 through 2029 are IMF projections.\n <\/p>\n
\n Source – RBC Wealth Management, IMF database; data as of 10\/24\/24\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n
Grain Exchange: Leveraging agriculture abundance<\/h2>\n
\n At the summit, BRICS members adopted Russia\u2019s proposal to create a BRICS\n Grain Exchange.\n <\/p>\n
\n We view this initiative as the association\u2019s most important development\n since four new members (Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab\n Emirates) were added to the traditional grouping of Brazil, Russia, India,\n China, and South Africa in January 2024.\n <\/p>\n
\n - \n First, plans to roll out a new Grain Exchange demonstrate that BRICS is\n transforming into more than just a \u201cclub\u201d of like-minded countries into\n an association that aims to incorporate practical platforms to advance\n economic interests and development.\n <\/li>\n
- \n Second, it underscores that deeper integration is a priority, and raises\n the potential that BRICS institutions could be created in the future to\n provide at least somewhat more structure to the association.\n <\/li>\n
- \n Third, we think the BRICS Grain Exchange will benefit developing\n countries that participate.\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n
\n The trading of grains and other agriculture commodities has been dominated\n by U.S. and other Western exchanges for decades, which effectively set\n prices globally, and much of the goods are traded in U.S. dollars.\n <\/p>\n
\n According to BRICS members, this new exchange is being created with the\n goals of:\n <\/p>\n
\n - Forming \u201cfair and predictable\u201d grain prices<\/li>\n
- \n Shielding participating countries from price speculation and artificial\n food shortages\n <\/li>\n
- \n Protecting national grain markets from external interference\n <\/li>\n
- \n Increasing food security for participating countries\n <\/li>\n
- Facilitating grain trading in national currencies<\/li>\n <\/ul>\n
\n The group left the door open to add other agriculture commodities to the\n exchange in the future.\n <\/p>\n
\n BRICS member countries produce a considerable amount of grain; estimates\n from various aggregators of commodity production data range from 40\n percent to 54 percent of global supplies. They also produce a significant\n share of the world\u2019s meat, fish, and dairy products.\n <\/p>\n
\n And with the nine BRICS member states representing 45 percent of the\n world\u2019s population, they make up a meaningful portion of global grain\n consumption.\n <\/p>\n
\n It\u2019s also notable that Russia has proposed to create a separate BRICS\n platform for trading precious metals and diamonds\u2014more commodities\n currently dominated by Western exchanges. Here too, BRICS countries have\n considerable production heft and resources.\n <\/p>\n \n
Payments system: Much work to be done<\/h2>\n
\n BRICS members are working toward developing a blockchain-based system that\n would facilitate financial payments with each other. BRICS country\n officials are quick to point out this is not designed to be an alternative\n to the Western-run global SWIFT system; it\u2019s simply intended to strengthen\n and enhance their own interbank communications systems.\n <\/p>\n
\n It\u2019s our understanding that financial, central bank, technology, legal,\n and legislative experts from BRICS member countries need to sort through\n an abundance of issues in order to fully develop a BRICS payments system.\n We believe their work will be careful and deliberate; no one is going to\n run ahead of the locomotive.\n <\/p>\n
\n After the technical work is done, ultimately, BRICS heads of state will\n need to make decisions whether to launch the system and determine their\n respective country\u2019s level of participation. There is no ETA on this\n initiative.\n <\/p>\n
\n A \u201cBRICS single currency,\u201d often hyped in the press and by U.S. dollar\n doom-and-gloomers, is still not being formally considered by BRICS members\n and we don\u2019t think it will be anytime soon for a variety of reasons.\n Leaders and top officials have made this clear many times, including in\n Kazan.\n <\/p>\n \n
Forging closer ties on overlapping interests<\/h2>\n
\n BRICS members are also proposing new initiatives and deeper cooperation on\n existing bilateral and multilateral partnerships, including:\n <\/p>\n
\n - \n The development of transit corridors and logistics (North-South\n Corridor, Northern Sea Route, and Eastern Maritime Corridor);\n <\/li>\n
- \n electricity grid expansion, electricity transit among countries, and\n nuclear energy cooperation;\n <\/li>\n
- developing a carbon trading system;<\/li>\n
- preventative and advanced health care;<\/li>\n
- \n artificial intelligence and cybersecurity cooperation; and\n <\/li>\n
- humanitarian areas such as cultural and sport cooperation.<\/li>\n <\/ul>\n
\n They also plan to expand the New Development Bank (NDB) of BRICS by adding\n an investment platform. It seems to us that the goal is for this so-called\n \u201cBRICS bank\u201d to take on more characteristics of its much larger cousin,\n the World Bank\u2019s International Bank for Reconstruction and Development. We\n expect more public funding and private investment from BRICS country\n sovereign wealth funds, which could benefit developing countries that are\n members of the NDB.\n <\/p>\n \n
Investing in the multipolar era<\/h2>\n
\n Developments at the BRICS summit in Kazan with this group of countries\n seeking to rebalance the global order, combined with the increasing trade\n protectionism of the U.S. since 2018, reinforces our view that the shift\n to a multipolar, more fragmented world argues for viewing portfolio\n allocations through a different lens.\n <\/p>\n
\n As we explained in our May 2023 report \u201cWorlds Apart: Risks and opportunities as deglobalization looms <\/rbc-icon><\/a\n >,\u201d the considerable ongoing geopolitical and geoeconomic changes call for\n a new way of thinking.\n <\/p>\n \n Sub-asset allocations within equities and fixed income should no longer be\n viewed through the lens of cooperative globalization that occurred in\n previous decades. We don\u2019t think that era is coming back anytime soon.\n <\/p>\n
\n In our view, this new era begs for more active asset management of\n country, industry, and company investment exposures. For example, we think\n the trends pose challenges for European economic growth, and the headwinds\n are already\n visible<\/a\n >.\n <\/p>\n \n A number of strategically important industries seem poised to benefit from\n the geopolitical shifts that are taking place, and we list them on page 10\n of this\n report <\/rbc-icon><\/a\n >.\n <\/p>\n \n But if protectionist trends in the West persist\u2014like we think they\n will\u2014global economic growth and equity market gains could be more muted\n than they were during the globalization heyday.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Our ongoing \u201cWorlds Apart\u201d series looks at the just-concluded BRICS summit and how the group aims to rebalance the global order. We believe the shift to a multipolar, more fragmented world argues for viewing portfolio allocations through a different lens.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":25927,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2024-10-24T13:21:38","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[73],"tags":[532,758],"rbcwm_content_owner":[607],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[74],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-25926","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-brics","tag-worlds-apart","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"Our ongoing \u201cWorlds Apart\u201d series looks at the just-concluded BRICS summit and how the group aims to rebalance the global order. We believe the shift to a multipolar, more fragmented world argues for viewing portfolio allocations through a different lens.","rbcwm_post_author":[1346],"rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":[],"disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[11937],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"\n
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Other countries that participated<\/h6>\n \n \n \n - Armenia<\/li>\n
- Azerbaijan<\/li>\n
- Bahrain<\/li>\n
- Bangladesh<\/li>\n
- Belarus<\/li>\n
- Bolivia<\/li>\n
- Congo<\/li>\n
- Cuba<\/li>\n
- Indonesia<\/li>\n
- Kazakhstan<\/li>\n
- Kyrgyzstan<\/li>\n
- Laos<\/li>\n
- Malaysia<\/li>\n <\/ul>\n <\/div>\n \n
\n - Mauritania<\/li>\n
- Mongolia<\/li>\n
- Nicaragua<\/li>\n
- Saudi Arabia*<\/li>\n
- Serbia<\/li>\n
- Sri Lanka<\/li>\n
- Tajikistan<\/li>\n
- Thailand<\/li>\n
- Turkey<\/li>\n
- Turkmenistan<\/li>\n
- Uzbekistan<\/li>\n
- Venezuela<\/li>\n
- Vietnam<\/li>\n <\/ul>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
\n * Saudi Arabia received a BRICS membership invitation in August 2023,\n subject to entry in January 2024. The country has not yet officially\n clarified its status in the association. It did not participate in the\n 2024 summit meeting for members only but did participate in the summit\n outreach sessions and various other events during the year.\n <\/p>\n
\n Source – RBC Wealth Management, country delegation participation\n statements, first and second plenary sessions of the XVI BRICS Summit in\n the Outreach\/BRICS Plus format\n <\/p>\n \n \n
Beyond the hype: How BRICS sees the world<\/h2>\n
\n Summit after summit, there continues to be misinformation, disinformation,\n and confusion about what BRICS is and what it is not.\n <\/p>\n
\n Before we assess the summit\u2019s key developments, here\u2019s our quick take on\n what BRICS is about and how it sees the world:\n <\/p>\n
\n - \n It\u2019s a group of developing countries that seek to form a \u201cmultipolar\n world.\u201d\n <\/li>\n
- \n These nations think the period that began after the Cold War ended\u2014when\n the U.S. became the sole major power and basically led the global order\n (a period often described as a \u201cunipolar world\u201d)\u2014is in the process of\n shifting or has already shifted into a new era.\n <\/li>\n
- \n They believe they deserve a bigger say in global affairs.\n <\/li>\n
- \n They highly value national sovereignty and seek to strengthen it for\n their own countries.\n <\/li>\n
- \n They seek a \u201cjust world order\u201d and a \u201cfairer\u201d global system based on\n mutual respect, and promote inclusiveness and consensus building.\n <\/li>\n
- \n They desire deeper trade, financial, strategic, and cultural ties with\n each other.\n <\/li>\n
- \n They support each other diplomatically where they agree. Where they\n don\u2019t agree, they don\u2019t exert excessive pressure on each other. They\n attempt to reason and persuade, not threaten.\n <\/li>\n
- \n They don\u2019t interfere in each other\u2019s domestic affairs, and strongly\n object to when Western countries attempt to do this to their countries.\n <\/li>\n
- \n They oppose what are called \u201cunilateral economic sanctions\u201d and\n secondary sanctions. Many BRICS members deem such sanctions as \u201cillegal\u201d\n because they are not approved by the UN Security Council.\n <\/li>\n
- \n They are against using currencies\u2014the U.S. dollar in particular\u2014as a\n foreign policy weapon, and instead favour good old-fashioned diplomacy.\n <\/li>\n
- \n They advocate reforming and improving\u2014not eliminating\u2014Bretton Woods-era\n global financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund\n (IMF) and the World Bank.\n <\/li>\n
- \n They believe the World Trade Organization has become dysfunctional and\n is badly in need of reform.\n <\/li>\n
- \n They prioritize expanding the UN Security Council and restructuring\n other UN bodies to give countries in Asia, Latin America, and Africa a\n greater voice. They think Western-aligned countries should no longer\n have a disproportionate say in these bodies.\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n
\n BRICS is not designed to be a formal political and economic bloc like the\n EU.\n <\/p>\n
\n In fact, its members flatly reject the term \u201cbloc\u201d and don\u2019t seek to\n become one. And they repeatedly assert that they\u2019re \u201cnot against anyone.\u201d\n India, in particular, does not want BRICS to be viewed as an anti-Western\n entity.\n <\/p>\n
\n Nor is BRICS designed to be a formal military security alliance like NATO.\n There is no military component. Turkey\u2019s participation in this year\u2019s\n summit and desire to cooperate further with BRICS\u2014the first and only NATO\n country to do so thus far\u2014underscores this. If BRICS had military aims,\n any participation of a NATO country would be ruled out.\n <\/p>\n
\n Some BRICS members, such as India, the United Arab Emirates, and Brazil,\n have very good relations with the U.S. and the collective West and intend\n to maintain strong ties.\n <\/p>\n \n
Expanding the BRICS footprint<\/h2>\n
\n Regardless of how one sees the BRICS association and the various countries\n involved, we think it\u2019s impossible to brush them aside.\n <\/p>\n
\n The group has signaled it intends to expand by inviting certain countries\n among those who attended the summit to become a \u201cBRICS partner,\u201d which\n would be a new, next step toward the full membership process. In the past,\n BRICS membership invitations have required the consent of all existing\n members and some regional balance.\n <\/p>\n
\n It\u2019s our belief that other summit attendees would likely be invited to\n various BRICS events in the future or to participate informally in other\n ways. There were more than 200 events this year with more to come.\n <\/p>\n
\n It\u2019s also prudent to pay attention to BRICS members and any new partners\n given the dramatic geopolitical changes a number of these countries are\n involved in. Or, as the Chinese leadership likes to say, such changes that\n have not been seen in 100 years.\n <\/p>\n \n
Economic heft equals clout<\/h2>\n
\n BRICS countries believe they deserve a bigger say in global affairs\n because collectively they have considerable economic heft and natural\n resources wealth, which they can translate into economic clout.\n <\/p>\n
\n As Bloomberg News pointed out this week, \u201cThe world economy is set to rely\n even more heavily on the BRICS group of emerging economies to drive\n expansion, rather than their wealthier Western peers,\u201d according to the\n IMF\u2019s latest forecasts.\n <\/p>\n
\n The IMF expects by far the biggest contributions to global GDP growth from\n 2024 to 2029 in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms to come from China,\n followed by India and then the U.S. The next tier is anticipated to be led\n by Indonesia, and then Russia, Brazil, Turkey, Egypt, Germany, Japan, and\n Bangladesh. Among these 11 countries, all but the U.S., Germany, and Japan\n attended the BRICS summit.\n <\/p>\n
\n The economies of the nine BRICS member states already exceed the size of\n G7 economies in PPP terms, and the IMF forecasts the gap to widen.\n <\/p>\n \n
BRICS economic clout is increasing<\/h3>\n \n Share of global GDP based on purchasing power parity in U.S. dollars*\n <\/h4>\n \n \n \n \n The line chart shows the proportion of global GDP based on purchasing\n power parity for G7 and BRICS countries from 1995 through 2029; data\n from 2024 through 2029 are based on IMF projections. In 1995, there\n was a very wide gap between the two groups with the G7 at 46% and\n BRICS at 18.5%. The G7’s GDP as a proportion of global GDP has\n declined meaningfully since then, while the BRICS countries’ GDP as a\n proportion of global GDP has steadily climbed. The IMF projects this\n trend will continue through its forecast period of 2029. The G7 and 9\n BRICS countries’ share of global GDP was equal in 2017 at 32%.\n Thereafter G7 had declined to 29.5% and BRICS increased to 35.8% by\n 2023. By 2029, the IMF projects the G7 will decline to 27% and BRICS\n will rise to 38%.\n <\/p>\n \n GDP of the nine BRICS members surpassed G7 GDP in 2018, and the trend\n is expected to continue. Even before BRICS membership expansion, the\n previous five BRICS members had surpassed the G7 in 2021.\n <\/p>\n \n - \n <\/div>\n G7 countries\n <\/li>\n
- \n <\/div>\n 9 BRICS members\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n
\n * Data from 2024 through 2029 are IMF projections.\n <\/p>\n
\n Source – RBC Wealth Management, IMF database; data as of 10\/24\/24\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n
Grain Exchange: Leveraging agriculture abundance<\/h2>\n
\n At the summit, BRICS members adopted Russia\u2019s proposal to create a BRICS\n Grain Exchange.\n <\/p>\n
\n We view this initiative as the association\u2019s most important development\n since four new members (Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab\n Emirates) were added to the traditional grouping of Brazil, Russia, India,\n China, and South Africa in January 2024.\n <\/p>\n
\n - \n First, plans to roll out a new Grain Exchange demonstrate that BRICS is\n transforming into more than just a \u201cclub\u201d of like-minded countries into\n an association that aims to incorporate practical platforms to advance\n economic interests and development.\n <\/li>\n
- \n Second, it underscores that deeper integration is a priority, and raises\n the potential that BRICS institutions could be created in the future to\n provide at least somewhat more structure to the association.\n <\/li>\n
- \n Third, we think the BRICS Grain Exchange will benefit developing\n countries that participate.\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n
\n The trading of grains and other agriculture commodities has been dominated\n by U.S. and other Western exchanges for decades, which effectively set\n prices globally, and much of the goods are traded in U.S. dollars.\n <\/p>\n
\n According to BRICS members, this new exchange is being created with the\n goals of:\n <\/p>\n
\n - Forming \u201cfair and predictable\u201d grain prices<\/li>\n
- \n Shielding participating countries from price speculation and artificial\n food shortages\n <\/li>\n
- \n Protecting national grain markets from external interference\n <\/li>\n
- \n Increasing food security for participating countries\n <\/li>\n
- Facilitating grain trading in national currencies<\/li>\n <\/ul>\n
\n The group left the door open to add other agriculture commodities to the\n exchange in the future.\n <\/p>\n
\n BRICS member countries produce a considerable amount of grain; estimates\n from various aggregators of commodity production data range from 40\n percent to 54 percent of global supplies. They also produce a significant\n share of the world\u2019s meat, fish, and dairy products.\n <\/p>\n
\n And with the nine BRICS member states representing 45 percent of the\n world\u2019s population, they make up a meaningful portion of global grain\n consumption.\n <\/p>\n
\n It\u2019s also notable that Russia has proposed to create a separate BRICS\n platform for trading precious metals and diamonds\u2014more commodities\n currently dominated by Western exchanges. Here too, BRICS countries have\n considerable production heft and resources.\n <\/p>\n \n
Payments system: Much work to be done<\/h2>\n
\n BRICS members are working toward developing a blockchain-based system that\n would facilitate financial payments with each other. BRICS country\n officials are quick to point out this is not designed to be an alternative\n to the Western-run global SWIFT system; it\u2019s simply intended to strengthen\n and enhance their own interbank communications systems.\n <\/p>\n
\n It\u2019s our understanding that financial, central bank, technology, legal,\n and legislative experts from BRICS member countries need to sort through\n an abundance of issues in order to fully develop a BRICS payments system.\n We believe their work will be careful and deliberate; no one is going to\n run ahead of the locomotive.\n <\/p>\n
\n After the technical work is done, ultimately, BRICS heads of state will\n need to make decisions whether to launch the system and determine their\n respective country\u2019s level of participation. There is no ETA on this\n initiative.\n <\/p>\n
\n A \u201cBRICS single currency,\u201d often hyped in the press and by U.S. dollar\n doom-and-gloomers, is still not being formally considered by BRICS members\n and we don\u2019t think it will be anytime soon for a variety of reasons.\n Leaders and top officials have made this clear many times, including in\n Kazan.\n <\/p>\n \n
Forging closer ties on overlapping interests<\/h2>\n
\n BRICS members are also proposing new initiatives and deeper cooperation on\n existing bilateral and multilateral partnerships, including:\n <\/p>\n
\n - \n The development of transit corridors and logistics (North-South\n Corridor, Northern Sea Route, and Eastern Maritime Corridor);\n <\/li>\n
- \n electricity grid expansion, electricity transit among countries, and\n nuclear energy cooperation;\n <\/li>\n
- developing a carbon trading system;<\/li>\n
- preventative and advanced health care;<\/li>\n
- \n artificial intelligence and cybersecurity cooperation; and\n <\/li>\n
- humanitarian areas such as cultural and sport cooperation.<\/li>\n <\/ul>\n
\n They also plan to expand the New Development Bank (NDB) of BRICS by adding\n an investment platform. It seems to us that the goal is for this so-called\n \u201cBRICS bank\u201d to take on more characteristics of its much larger cousin,\n the World Bank\u2019s International Bank for Reconstruction and Development. We\n expect more public funding and private investment from BRICS country\n sovereign wealth funds, which could benefit developing countries that are\n members of the NDB.\n <\/p>\n \n
Investing in the multipolar era<\/h2>\n
\n Developments at the BRICS summit in Kazan with this group of countries\n seeking to rebalance the global order, combined with the increasing trade\n protectionism of the U.S. since 2018, reinforces our view that the shift\n to a multipolar, more fragmented world argues for viewing portfolio\n allocations through a different lens.\n <\/p>\n
\n As we explained in our May 2023 report \u201cWorlds Apart: Risks and opportunities as deglobalization looms <\/rbc-icon><\/a\n >,\u201d the considerable ongoing geopolitical and geoeconomic changes call for\n a new way of thinking.\n <\/p>\n \n Sub-asset allocations within equities and fixed income should no longer be\n viewed through the lens of cooperative globalization that occurred in\n previous decades. We don\u2019t think that era is coming back anytime soon.\n <\/p>\n
\n In our view, this new era begs for more active asset management of\n country, industry, and company investment exposures. For example, we think\n the trends pose challenges for European economic growth, and the headwinds\n are already\n visible<\/a\n >.\n <\/p>\n \n A number of strategically important industries seem poised to benefit from\n the geopolitical shifts that are taking place, and we list them on page 10\n of this\n report <\/rbc-icon><\/a\n >.\n <\/p>\n \n But if protectionist trends in the West persist\u2014like we think they\n will\u2014global economic growth and equity market gains could be more muted\n than they were during the globalization heyday.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Our ongoing \u201cWorlds Apart\u201d series looks at the just-concluded BRICS summit and how the group aims to rebalance the global order. We believe the shift to a multipolar, more fragmented world argues for viewing portfolio allocations through a different lens.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":25927,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2024-10-24T13:21:38","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[73],"tags":[532,758],"rbcwm_content_owner":[607],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[74],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-25926","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-brics","tag-worlds-apart","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"Our ongoing \u201cWorlds Apart\u201d series looks at the just-concluded BRICS summit and how the group aims to rebalance the global order. We believe the shift to a multipolar, more fragmented world argues for viewing portfolio allocations through a different lens.","rbcwm_post_author":[1346],"rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":[],"disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[11937],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"\n
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- Venezuela<\/li>\n
- Vietnam<\/li>\n <\/ul>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n
\n * Saudi Arabia received a BRICS membership invitation in August 2023,\n subject to entry in January 2024. The country has not yet officially\n clarified its status in the association. It did not participate in the\n 2024 summit meeting for members only but did participate in the summit\n outreach sessions and various other events during the year.\n <\/p>\n
\n Source – RBC Wealth Management, country delegation participation\n statements, first and second plenary sessions of the XVI BRICS Summit in\n the Outreach\/BRICS Plus format\n <\/p>\n \n \n
Beyond the hype: How BRICS sees the world<\/h2>\n
\n Summit after summit, there continues to be misinformation, disinformation,\n and confusion about what BRICS is and what it is not.\n <\/p>\n
\n Before we assess the summit\u2019s key developments, here\u2019s our quick take on\n what BRICS is about and how it sees the world:\n <\/p>\n
- \n
- \n It\u2019s a group of developing countries that seek to form a \u201cmultipolar\n world.\u201d\n <\/li>\n
- \n These nations think the period that began after the Cold War ended\u2014when\n the U.S. became the sole major power and basically led the global order\n (a period often described as a \u201cunipolar world\u201d)\u2014is in the process of\n shifting or has already shifted into a new era.\n <\/li>\n
- \n They believe they deserve a bigger say in global affairs.\n <\/li>\n
- \n They highly value national sovereignty and seek to strengthen it for\n their own countries.\n <\/li>\n
- \n They seek a \u201cjust world order\u201d and a \u201cfairer\u201d global system based on\n mutual respect, and promote inclusiveness and consensus building.\n <\/li>\n
- \n They desire deeper trade, financial, strategic, and cultural ties with\n each other.\n <\/li>\n
- \n They support each other diplomatically where they agree. Where they\n don\u2019t agree, they don\u2019t exert excessive pressure on each other. They\n attempt to reason and persuade, not threaten.\n <\/li>\n
- \n They don\u2019t interfere in each other\u2019s domestic affairs, and strongly\n object to when Western countries attempt to do this to their countries.\n <\/li>\n
- \n They oppose what are called \u201cunilateral economic sanctions\u201d and\n secondary sanctions. Many BRICS members deem such sanctions as \u201cillegal\u201d\n because they are not approved by the UN Security Council.\n <\/li>\n
- \n They are against using currencies\u2014the U.S. dollar in particular\u2014as a\n foreign policy weapon, and instead favour good old-fashioned diplomacy.\n <\/li>\n
- \n They advocate reforming and improving\u2014not eliminating\u2014Bretton Woods-era\n global financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund\n (IMF) and the World Bank.\n <\/li>\n
- \n They believe the World Trade Organization has become dysfunctional and\n is badly in need of reform.\n <\/li>\n
- \n They prioritize expanding the UN Security Council and restructuring\n other UN bodies to give countries in Asia, Latin America, and Africa a\n greater voice. They think Western-aligned countries should no longer\n have a disproportionate say in these bodies.\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n
\n BRICS is not designed to be a formal political and economic bloc like the\n EU.\n <\/p>\n
\n In fact, its members flatly reject the term \u201cbloc\u201d and don\u2019t seek to\n become one. And they repeatedly assert that they\u2019re \u201cnot against anyone.\u201d\n India, in particular, does not want BRICS to be viewed as an anti-Western\n entity.\n <\/p>\n
\n Nor is BRICS designed to be a formal military security alliance like NATO.\n There is no military component. Turkey\u2019s participation in this year\u2019s\n summit and desire to cooperate further with BRICS\u2014the first and only NATO\n country to do so thus far\u2014underscores this. If BRICS had military aims,\n any participation of a NATO country would be ruled out.\n <\/p>\n
\n Some BRICS members, such as India, the United Arab Emirates, and Brazil,\n have very good relations with the U.S. and the collective West and intend\n to maintain strong ties.\n <\/p>\n \n
Expanding the BRICS footprint<\/h2>\n
\n Regardless of how one sees the BRICS association and the various countries\n involved, we think it\u2019s impossible to brush them aside.\n <\/p>\n
\n The group has signaled it intends to expand by inviting certain countries\n among those who attended the summit to become a \u201cBRICS partner,\u201d which\n would be a new, next step toward the full membership process. In the past,\n BRICS membership invitations have required the consent of all existing\n members and some regional balance.\n <\/p>\n
\n It\u2019s our belief that other summit attendees would likely be invited to\n various BRICS events in the future or to participate informally in other\n ways. There were more than 200 events this year with more to come.\n <\/p>\n
\n It\u2019s also prudent to pay attention to BRICS members and any new partners\n given the dramatic geopolitical changes a number of these countries are\n involved in. Or, as the Chinese leadership likes to say, such changes that\n have not been seen in 100 years.\n <\/p>\n \n
Economic heft equals clout<\/h2>\n
\n BRICS countries believe they deserve a bigger say in global affairs\n because collectively they have considerable economic heft and natural\n resources wealth, which they can translate into economic clout.\n <\/p>\n
\n As Bloomberg News pointed out this week, \u201cThe world economy is set to rely\n even more heavily on the BRICS group of emerging economies to drive\n expansion, rather than their wealthier Western peers,\u201d according to the\n IMF\u2019s latest forecasts.\n <\/p>\n
\n The IMF expects by far the biggest contributions to global GDP growth from\n 2024 to 2029 in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms to come from China,\n followed by India and then the U.S. The next tier is anticipated to be led\n by Indonesia, and then Russia, Brazil, Turkey, Egypt, Germany, Japan, and\n Bangladesh. Among these 11 countries, all but the U.S., Germany, and Japan\n attended the BRICS summit.\n <\/p>\n
\n The economies of the nine BRICS member states already exceed the size of\n G7 economies in PPP terms, and the IMF forecasts the gap to widen.\n <\/p>\n \n
BRICS economic clout is increasing<\/h3>\n
\n Share of global GDP based on purchasing power parity in U.S. dollars*\n <\/h4>\n
\n\n\n \n The line chart shows the proportion of global GDP based on purchasing\n power parity for G7 and BRICS countries from 1995 through 2029; data\n from 2024 through 2029 are based on IMF projections. In 1995, there\n was a very wide gap between the two groups with the G7 at 46% and\n BRICS at 18.5%. The G7’s GDP as a proportion of global GDP has\n declined meaningfully since then, while the BRICS countries’ GDP as a\n proportion of global GDP has steadily climbed. The IMF projects this\n trend will continue through its forecast period of 2029. The G7 and 9\n BRICS countries’ share of global GDP was equal in 2017 at 32%.\n Thereafter G7 had declined to 29.5% and BRICS increased to 35.8% by\n 2023. By 2029, the IMF projects the G7 will decline to 27% and BRICS\n will rise to 38%.\n <\/p>\n
- \n
- \n <\/div>\n G7 countries\n <\/li>\n
- \n
<\/div>\n 9 BRICS members\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n\n * Data from 2024 through 2029 are IMF projections.\n <\/p>\n
\n Source – RBC Wealth Management, IMF database; data as of 10\/24\/24\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n
Grain Exchange: Leveraging agriculture abundance<\/h2>\n
\n At the summit, BRICS members adopted Russia\u2019s proposal to create a BRICS\n Grain Exchange.\n <\/p>\n
\n We view this initiative as the association\u2019s most important development\n since four new members (Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab\n Emirates) were added to the traditional grouping of Brazil, Russia, India,\n China, and South Africa in January 2024.\n <\/p>\n
- \n
- \n First, plans to roll out a new Grain Exchange demonstrate that BRICS is\n transforming into more than just a \u201cclub\u201d of like-minded countries into\n an association that aims to incorporate practical platforms to advance\n economic interests and development.\n <\/li>\n
- \n Second, it underscores that deeper integration is a priority, and raises\n the potential that BRICS institutions could be created in the future to\n provide at least somewhat more structure to the association.\n <\/li>\n
- \n Third, we think the BRICS Grain Exchange will benefit developing\n countries that participate.\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n
\n The trading of grains and other agriculture commodities has been dominated\n by U.S. and other Western exchanges for decades, which effectively set\n prices globally, and much of the goods are traded in U.S. dollars.\n <\/p>\n
\n According to BRICS members, this new exchange is being created with the\n goals of:\n <\/p>\n
- \n
- Forming \u201cfair and predictable\u201d grain prices<\/li>\n
- \n Shielding participating countries from price speculation and artificial\n food shortages\n <\/li>\n
- \n Protecting national grain markets from external interference\n <\/li>\n
- \n Increasing food security for participating countries\n <\/li>\n
- Facilitating grain trading in national currencies<\/li>\n <\/ul>\n
\n The group left the door open to add other agriculture commodities to the\n exchange in the future.\n <\/p>\n
\n BRICS member countries produce a considerable amount of grain; estimates\n from various aggregators of commodity production data range from 40\n percent to 54 percent of global supplies. They also produce a significant\n share of the world\u2019s meat, fish, and dairy products.\n <\/p>\n
\n And with the nine BRICS member states representing 45 percent of the\n world\u2019s population, they make up a meaningful portion of global grain\n consumption.\n <\/p>\n
\n It\u2019s also notable that Russia has proposed to create a separate BRICS\n platform for trading precious metals and diamonds\u2014more commodities\n currently dominated by Western exchanges. Here too, BRICS countries have\n considerable production heft and resources.\n <\/p>\n \n
Payments system: Much work to be done<\/h2>\n
\n BRICS members are working toward developing a blockchain-based system that\n would facilitate financial payments with each other. BRICS country\n officials are quick to point out this is not designed to be an alternative\n to the Western-run global SWIFT system; it\u2019s simply intended to strengthen\n and enhance their own interbank communications systems.\n <\/p>\n
\n It\u2019s our understanding that financial, central bank, technology, legal,\n and legislative experts from BRICS member countries need to sort through\n an abundance of issues in order to fully develop a BRICS payments system.\n We believe their work will be careful and deliberate; no one is going to\n run ahead of the locomotive.\n <\/p>\n
\n After the technical work is done, ultimately, BRICS heads of state will\n need to make decisions whether to launch the system and determine their\n respective country\u2019s level of participation. There is no ETA on this\n initiative.\n <\/p>\n
\n A \u201cBRICS single currency,\u201d often hyped in the press and by U.S. dollar\n doom-and-gloomers, is still not being formally considered by BRICS members\n and we don\u2019t think it will be anytime soon for a variety of reasons.\n Leaders and top officials have made this clear many times, including in\n Kazan.\n <\/p>\n \n
Forging closer ties on overlapping interests<\/h2>\n
\n BRICS members are also proposing new initiatives and deeper cooperation on\n existing bilateral and multilateral partnerships, including:\n <\/p>\n
- \n
- \n The development of transit corridors and logistics (North-South\n Corridor, Northern Sea Route, and Eastern Maritime Corridor);\n <\/li>\n
- \n electricity grid expansion, electricity transit among countries, and\n nuclear energy cooperation;\n <\/li>\n
- developing a carbon trading system;<\/li>\n
- preventative and advanced health care;<\/li>\n
- \n artificial intelligence and cybersecurity cooperation; and\n <\/li>\n
- humanitarian areas such as cultural and sport cooperation.<\/li>\n <\/ul>\n
\n They also plan to expand the New Development Bank (NDB) of BRICS by adding\n an investment platform. It seems to us that the goal is for this so-called\n \u201cBRICS bank\u201d to take on more characteristics of its much larger cousin,\n the World Bank\u2019s International Bank for Reconstruction and Development. We\n expect more public funding and private investment from BRICS country\n sovereign wealth funds, which could benefit developing countries that are\n members of the NDB.\n <\/p>\n \n
Investing in the multipolar era<\/h2>\n
\n Developments at the BRICS summit in Kazan with this group of countries\n seeking to rebalance the global order, combined with the increasing trade\n protectionism of the U.S. since 2018, reinforces our view that the shift\n to a multipolar, more fragmented world argues for viewing portfolio\n allocations through a different lens.\n <\/p>\n
\n As we explained in our May 2023 report \u201c
<\/rbc-icon><\/a\n >,\u201d the considerable ongoing geopolitical and geoeconomic changes call for\n a new way of thinking.\n <\/p>\n \n Sub-asset allocations within equities and fixed income should no longer be\n viewed through the lens of cooperative globalization that occurred in\n previous decades. We don\u2019t think that era is coming back anytime soon.\n <\/p>\n
\n In our view, this new era begs for more active asset management of\n country, industry, and company investment exposures. For example, we think\n the trends pose challenges for European economic growth, and the headwinds\n are already\n
\n A number of strategically important industries seem poised to benefit from\n the geopolitical shifts that are taking place, and we list them on page 10\n of this\n
<\/rbc-icon><\/a\n >.\n <\/p>\n \n But if protectionist trends in the West persist\u2014like we think they\n will\u2014global economic growth and equity market gains could be more muted\n than they were during the globalization heyday.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Our ongoing \u201cWorlds Apart\u201d series looks at the just-concluded BRICS summit and how the group aims to rebalance the global order. We believe the shift to a multipolar, more fragmented world argues for viewing portfolio allocations through a different lens.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":25927,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2024-10-24T13:21:38","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[73],"tags":[532,758],"rbcwm_content_owner":[607],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[74],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-25926","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-brics","tag-worlds-apart","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"Our ongoing \u201cWorlds Apart\u201d series looks at the just-concluded BRICS summit and how the group aims to rebalance the global order. We believe the shift to a multipolar, more fragmented world argues for viewing portfolio allocations through a different lens.","rbcwm_post_author":[1346],"rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":[],"disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[11937],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"\n
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