{"id":26897,"date":"2025-01-16T16:46:14","date_gmt":"2025-01-16T21:46:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-ca\/?p=26897"},"modified":"2025-01-17T11:57:00","modified_gmt":"2025-01-17T16:57:00","slug":"pay-attention-to-triggers-for-europe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-ca\/insights\/pay-attention-to-triggers-for-europe","title":{"rendered":"Pay attention to triggers for Europe"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2>U.S. tariffs: Is the bark worse than the bite?<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      The tariffs that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to\n      impose on the EU could be a significant headwind to a region saddled with\n      meagre economic growth. RBC Global Asset Management Inc. Chief Economist\n      Eric Lascelles calculates that two years after the implementation of a 10\n      percent blanket tariff, eurozone GDP would be one percent smaller than it\n      otherwise would have been.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Reflecting the tariff concerns, 2025 consensus GDP growth forecasts for\n      the eurozone have been downgraded marginally to one percent from 1.2\n      percent since the U.S. elections in November.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Trump\u2019s transactional approach suggests to us there may be room for\n      negotiations. By giving the U.S. some concessions, such as increased\n      defence spending or purchasing more U.S. oil and liquified natural gas,\n      the EU may be able to avoid the worst-case scenario of an escalating trade\n      war or see only certain sectors affected by tariffs.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Given investors\u2019 anxiety regarding the impact of tariffs on the region,\n      such relatively favourable outcomes\u2014which may only happen after\n      acrimonious negotiations\u2014would likely be a relief for markets, in our\n      view.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>German federal elections: A new dawn?<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      The elections to be held on Feb. 23 are important given the German\n      economy, the EU\u2019s largest, has sputtered since the end of the pandemic.\n      Due to little ideological overlap, the three-party coalition that governed\n      the country since 2021 proved ineffective at redressing the situation.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      The coalition eventually collapsed, unable to strike an agreement to\n      provide the fiscal stimulus the economy sorely needed. Additional spending\n      has not been possible due to the \u201cdebt brake,\u201d the measure enshrined in\n      the German constitution that limits the deficit to a stringent 0.35\n      percent of GDP per year. Modifying this rule requires a high two-thirds\n      majority in parliament\u2014a threshold unachievable to date.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Polls are indicating change is coming. The centre-right conservative\n      alliance of the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) and the\n      Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CSU) is likely to garner the most votes\n      but fall short of a majority. A coalition with the centre-left Social\n      Democratic Party (SDP) as a junior partner is the consensus outcome\u2014such a\n      coalition has governed effectively in the past.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- EXHIBIT -->\n    <h3>\n      Likely distribution of German parliamentary seats could make amendment of\n      the \u201cdebt brake\u201d possible\n    <\/h3>\n    <div class=\"row mb-4\">\n      <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\"\n          src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/global\/triggers-for-europe-en-chart-1.png\"\n          alt=\"Likely distribution of German parliamentary seats\"\n          class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\"\n          aria-describedby=\"chart1desc\"\n        \/>\n        <p class=\"sr-only\" id=\"chart1desc\">\n          The bar chart shows the likely seat distribution in the German\n          parliament after the elections. According to recent polls, the an\n          alliance of the CDU\/CSU, the SPD, and the Greens could have the\n          two-thirds majority required for constitutional changes. The CDU\/CSU\n          is projected to take 39% of the seats, the SPD 18%, the Greens 14%,\n          AfD 21%, and BSW 8%.\n        <\/p>\n        <ul class=\"rbc-legend rbc-legend-inline\">\n          <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\" style=\"width: 155px;\">\n              <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar c-slate\"><\/div>\n              CDU\/CSU\n          <\/li>\n          <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\" style=\"width: 155px;\">\n              <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar c-warm-red\"><\/div>\n              SPD\n          <\/li>\n          <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\" style=\"width: 155px;\">\n              <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar\" style=\"color: #00b050;\"><\/div>\n              Greens\n          <\/li>\n          <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\" style=\"width: 155px;\">\n              <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar\" style=\"color: #94c0e9;\"><\/div>\n              AfD\n          <\/li>\n          <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\" style=\"width: 155px;\">\n              <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar\" style=\"color: #9900cc;\"><\/div>\n              BSW\n          <\/li>\n        <\/ul>\n        <p class=\"disclaimer\">Source &#8211; RBC Capital Markets, wahlrecht.de<\/p>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n    <p>\n      RBC Capital Markets expects a CDU\/CSU-led government would have little\n      alternative but to modestly loosen its fiscal stance. It also foresees\n      some additional defence and infrastructure spending under this outcome.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Reforming the debt brake may no longer be inconceivable, particularly if\n      the three traditional parties (CDU\/CSU, SDP, and the Greens) achieve a\n      two-thirds majority, as predicted by current polls. All three parties seem\n      open to the possibility of reform and politicians increasingly see the\n      constitutional rule as outdated given the ailing economy and the low level\n      of Germany\u2019s indebtedness\u2014which is very low in an international context\n      with a debt-to-GDP ratio below 60 percent.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Failing this, the new government could declare an \u201cemergency\u201d in 2025 to\n      create a special fund for government spending\u2014a measure which would only\n      require a simple majority in parliament.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Beyond a modestly higher level of spending, a CDU\/CSU-led government is\n      likely to be more pro-business, in RBC Capital Markets\u2019 view, prioritizing\n      economic policies over environmental ones. The CDU\/CSU manifesto calls for\n      a decrease in the business tax to 25 percent from 30 percent, to be at\n      least partly financed by pruning unemployment benefits. RBC Capital\n      Markets also believes some deregulation is possible, along with a\n      potential return to nuclear energy production through reactivation or the\n      establishment of new reactors to alleviate energy cost pressures.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Overall, we believe that an end to the paralysis that characterized the\n      previous coalition government, a more pro-business government, and\n      modestly accommodative fiscal policy would be beneficial to the economy.\n      These policies, if implemented, would likely please equity markets, in our\n      opinion.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Yet investors should be mindful that large-scale fiscal stimulus remains\n      unlikely, as the CDU\/CSU is, after all, a conservative party in the\n      European context. Moreover, Germany suffers from structural challenges\n      including its flailing industrial model, which cannot be addressed solely\n      by fiscal policy.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>China: A fading headwind?<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      A healthier Chinese economy would improve Europe\u2019s prospects given China\n      is a key export destination for European goods, and as many European\n      companies have operations there.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      While official announcements in China over the past few months have\n      largely underwhelmed, in our view, recent ones have suggested a \u201cmore\n      proactive fiscal policy,\u201d the first such indication of that since 2020,\n      and a change in the monetary policy stance to \u201cmoderately loose\u201d from\n      \u201cprudent\u201d for the first time in 14 years. In December, following the\n      two-day Central Economic Work Conference, Beijing pledged to stabilize the\n      property market in 2025.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      All this suggests to us that investors should remain confident that an\n      expansionary policy is coming. RBC Global Asset Management believes China\n      still has policy space to provide significant economic support. We expect\n      policy announcements at the March 2025 \u201cTwo Sessions,\u201d the annual key\n      political confab for major policy decisions.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      A large stimulus announcement would boost Europe\u2019s fortunes, in our view.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>Where does all this leave investors?<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      We believe there are notable near-term headwinds to European equity index\n      outperformance. They range from a lack of competitiveness and meagre\n      economic growth to geopolitical risks. These headwinds warrant holding a\n      modest Underweight in European equities.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Yet given investor sentiment is downbeat and low valuations already seem\n      to reflect many of these headwinds, a positive outcome from any of these\n      events could provide opportunities for investors. A ceasefire agreement\n      between Russia and Ukraine and a deeper European Central Bank rate-cutting\n      cycle would also be perceived positively, in our view.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      We continue to focus on world-leading companies that benefit from and\n      drive global structural trends, particularly in niches such as\n      semiconductor manufacturing equipment, electrical and mechanical\n      engineering, industrial gases, and health care.\n    <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Due to structural headwinds, we downgraded European equities to Underweight in December. Yet a number of catalysts could occur in Q1 that could be well received by equity markets. We peruse the opportunities that may emerge in European equities.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":26906,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2025-01-16T15:45:42","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[73],"tags":[782],"rbcwm_content_owner":[607],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[74],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-26897","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-tariff","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"Due to structural headwinds, we downgraded European equities to Underweight in December. Yet a number of catalysts could occur in Q1 that could be well received by equity markets. We peruse the opportunities that may emerge in European equities.","rbcwm_post_author":[1340],"rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":[],"disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[11937],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.8 (Yoast SEO v26.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Pay attention to triggers for Europe<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Due to structural headwinds, we downgraded European equities to Underweight in December. Yet a number of catalysts could occur in Q1 that could be well received by equity markets. We peruse the opportunities that may emerge in European equities.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-ca\/insights\/pay-attention-to-triggers-for-europe\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Pay attention to triggers for Europe\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Due to structural headwinds, we downgraded European equities to Underweight in December. Yet a number of catalysts could occur in Q1 that could be well received by equity markets. 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