{"id":27376,"date":"2025-03-05T16:14:36","date_gmt":"2025-03-05T21:14:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-ca\/?p=27376"},"modified":"2025-03-05T16:14:37","modified_gmt":"2025-03-05T21:14:37","slug":"u-s-tariffs-on-canada-take-effect-what-is-the-state-of-play","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-ca\/insights\/u-s-tariffs-on-canada-take-effect-what-is-the-state-of-play","title":{"rendered":"U.S. tariffs on Canada take effect: What is the state of play?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Frances Donald and Cynthia Leach<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The U.S. administration has implemented blanket tariffs on Canada and Mexico after a 30-day reprieve with 25 percent on all imports except 10 percent on Canadian energy. An additional 10 percent tariff on China is also planned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Canada has been hit with its largest trade shock in nearly 100 years and responded promptly with 25 percent tariffs on $30 billion of U.S. goods, rising to $155 billion in 21 days. Evolving trade policies and government responses still remain highly uncertain as we highlighted in our\u00a0first economic takeaways<\/a>\u00a0a month ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But, as we assess the implications of the implementation of tariffs on our forecasts\u2014to be released next week\u2014here is a cheat sheet summary of what we know and are incorporating into our outlook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lack of precedence for economic shock<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This is not 2018 and we have a limited experience for this magnitude of a trade shock. In 2018-19, tariff policies raised the average import duty from 1.5 percent to approximately three percent. As of March 4, the average tariff rate quadruples to nearly 12 percent. That\u2019s the largest trade shock to the U.S. and Canada since the 1930s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Interestingly, these tariffs apply to double the share of U.S. imports (Canada + Mexico = 30 percent) than China-only tariffs (15 percent). The U.S. economy, in particular, has experienced a sizeable economic shock since 2018\u2014prices are up 29 percent since Donald Trump\u2019s first day in office eight years ago and we suspect the sensitivity to inflation is much higher now than before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Impact is highly variable depending on duration<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The ultimate impact of these tariffs on Canada and the U.S. will depend on how long they\u2014and retaliatory measures\u2014remain in place. Those are political decisions and difficult to economically forecast. The movement of currencies is key as well, because it can buffer some of the impact on inflation and growth on both sides of the border.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As a specific timeline, we previously delineated a duration of three-to-six months to show material mark downs in growth for the Canadian and U.S. economies. Tariffs would likely reduce real gross domestic product growth to zero in 2025 if implemented beyond a year and lead to a two percent contraction in 2026 with a peak unemployment rate more than eight percent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Canada\u2019s deeply U.S-integrated manufacturing sector (about 10 percent of GDP) is particularly vulnerable, along with its heartland in Ontario and Quebec. Alberta and New Brunswick are also among the vulnerable provinces due to their commodity exposure, but the lower tariff rate implies an easier adjustment. Again, these scenarios make many assumptions about the path of currencies, retaliatory measures, central bank responses and fiscal packages.\u00a0Read more on our scenario analysis here <\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The damage is already in play<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The threat of tariffs alone has already been enough to create an impact. We have already seen early evidence of stockpiling from U.S. importers ahead of the tariff implementation, a feature in our\u00a0“Playbook for how to measure a tariff shock in Canada.” <\/a> This has worsened the U.S. trade deficit and mechanically pushed down U.S. GDP nowcasts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, uncertainty measures are at or near all-time highs, which will weigh on business investment and hiring in Canada. Surveys like the ISM Manufacturing indicator showed a surge in expectations for prices combined with a drop in new orders and employment activity in February\u2014a stagflationary sentiment likely to reveal itself in a variety of other indicators into March.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A stagflationary shock for the U.S.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While Canada\u2019s concerns are tilted toward the growth side, we expect the U.S. will struggle with the inflationary impact of broad-based tariffs. With a persistent tariff, we expect the\u00a0U.S. could see a year-over-year rise in core inflation <\/a>\u00a0of 0.5-one percentage point, pushing it above three percent by the end of 2025. However, growth would also need to be downgraded with our forecast suggesting that U.S. growth would move sideways in 2025 with risks to the downside should tariffs expand to Europe or globally. Growth would likely be materially impacted as well with tariffs in place for at least six months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That said, we expect a very tight labour market and lack of labour supply will keep a lid on how high the unemployment rate can rise. That will make the U.S. Federal Reserve\u2019s job especially challenging as they maneuver a supply-side shock to inflation that could be unresponsive to interest rate hikes. Currently, we have the Fed on hold for 2025, but further deterioration in sentiment or investment could prompt higher probabilities of additional cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Incoming near-term support<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Central bankers and governments may have time. Indeed, they might need time to develop strategies to react. The Bank of Canada has been noncommittal in how it would respond to a tariff shock\u2014waiting to see whether inflation or growth dominate. Without tariffs, we expected the BoC to gradually cut rates to 2.25 percent. Now, we expect that the longer tariffs remain in play, the greater the likelihood that rates fall faster and by a larger magnitude.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Provincial and federal stimulus packages will also matter. A prolonged trade shock means governments would have to respond to both the immediate recession, while also strengthening the underlying economy that is ill positioned to absorb such a shock. Targeted support would help to offset the growth impact, while broad-based cash transfers risk inflation that would complicate the BoC\u2019s job and limit future fiscal firepower. Prorogued legislatures at the federal level and in Ontario conveniently give policymakers more time to plan their reaction, while automatic stabilizers like employment insurance or Crown financial programs likely provide latitude to address many immediate concerns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An eye on medium- and longer-term solutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

There are longer-term plays available to facilitate export diversification and stronger domestic growth drivers despite the hurdles facing the Canadian economy. One is the U.S.\u2019s recognition of the importance of Canadian commodities.\u00a0Lower tariff rates on Canadian energy <\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0critical minerals <\/a>\u00a0reveal how big a global player Canada is on oil, gas, potash,\u00a0agrifood <\/a>, uranium and other essentials without easy substitutes. Expanding a cross-border partnership in these areas could refocus the relationship, while underpinning a greater value capture in manufacturing and ancillary services, and greater trade diversification.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is increasing consensus in Canada on the urgency of addressing structural growth impediments from\u00a0interprovincial trade barriers <\/a>\u00a0to peer-lagging business investment and high regulatory burdens. There are no easy fixes for U.S. tariffs. These issues could only be addressed over time, but would unequivocally be positive for the Canadian economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trade turbulence is likely to be a persistent theme<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While our current focus is on 25 percent across-the-board tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods, there are other trade-related deadlines coming. In addition to the planned March 12 implementation of previously announced\u00a0steel and aluminum tariffs <\/a>, April 2 is the next trigger date. The U.S. administration is expecting trade analysis from several agencies to support reciprocal tariffs, while it’s already put out a notice for stakeholder views on USMCA\/CUSMA in advance of July 2026 renegotiations.\u00a0Ongoing trade disruption <\/a>\u00a0means both economies can expect to be beset by policy uncertainty that weighs on business investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This article was originally published on <\/em>thoughtleadership.rbc.com <\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Frances Donald<\/strong> is the Chief Economist at RBC and oversees a team of leading professionals, who deliver economic analyses and insights to inform RBC clients around the globe. Frances is a key expert on economic issues and is highly sought after by clients, government leaders, policy makers, and media in the U.S. and Canada.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cynthia Leach<\/strong> Cynthia is Assistant Chief Economist at RBC covering the team\u2019s structural economic and policy analysis. She joined in 2020.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Although trade policies are evolving and government responses remain uncertain, here is a summary of what we 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