{"id":27666,"date":"2025-04-04T10:02:18","date_gmt":"2025-04-04T14:02:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-ca\/?p=27666"},"modified":"2025-04-04T10:12:46","modified_gmt":"2025-04-04T14:12:46","slug":"u-s-reciprocal-tariffs-spare-canada-and-mexico-for-now-but-trade-risks-remain","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-ca\/insights\/u-s-reciprocal-tariffs-spare-canada-and-mexico-for-now-but-trade-risks-remain","title":{"rendered":"U.S. reciprocal tariffs spare Canada and Mexico for now but trade risks remain"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Nathan Janzen and Claire Fan<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The long-awaited U.S. reciprocal tariffs announced have been large and broad-based, but critically exempt Canada and Mexico (at least for now) through CUSMA\/USMCA compliant trade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The announcement includes a baseline 10 percent minimum tariff rate for all countries as of April 5, but with substantially higher tariff rates imposed on specific countries to follow on April 9\u2014particularly those that make up the bulk of the U.S. trade deficit. That includes a 34 percent increase on import tariffs from China, 26 percent on India, a whopping 46 percent on imports from Vietnam and 20 percent on imports from the European Union.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tariffs on imports from Canada are still set to rise on Thursday. Auto tariffs announced last week will still push the average U.S. tariff rate on imports from Canada to about 3.5 percent from 2.5 percent by our count. That increase will still matter, but looks small now compared to dramatically higher tariffs set to be imposed on other countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. import tariff rate by country\/region<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Custom duties as percent of imports, ranked by increase in rate 2025 to-date<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, RBC Economics<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A lower tariff rate increase is positive for Canada on a relative basis, and it eliminates what had been a growing incentive for U.S. importers to purchase goods from other regions. But that will be little consolation if overall tariffs are large enough to shrink U.S. demand and the total U.S. import market overall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prior tariff announcements have been significantly altered or rolled back days (or even hours) after being made, and there is a big possibility that the tariffs announced today will look different a week from now. But, if the measures today are implemented, it would push the average U.S. import tariff rate to over 20 percent\u2014according to our estimates\u2014the highest rate in more than a century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. average import duties<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"Line
Source: US ITC, RBC Economics<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Today\u2019s announcement will not be the last on trade from the U.S. administration and we will continue to rely on our tariff playbook <\/a> to assess about how these announcements will impact the Canadian economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Magnitude of tariff hikes add downside risks to U.S. growth and supply chains<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Broadly speaking, we have argued before that U.S. buyers will have difficulty finding domestically produced alternatives to imports. A wave of retirements and immigration cutbacks limit the amount that American production can increase in the near-term, and capital investments to \u201creshore\u201d manufacturing production will take years and billions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given those constraints in the near-term to U.S. domestic production capacity, the impact of tariffs depends largely on whether alternative, cheaper import markets are available. Canada\u2019s position compared to other countries on import tariffs looks substantially better today than it did yesterday. But there\u2019s also the looming threat of whether the total tariffs imposed are large enough to significantly weaken U.S. economic growth and shrink the size of the total import pie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Furthermore, even though most of Canada\u2019s trade is directly with the U.S., the supply chain disruptions after pandemic lockdowns eased is a reminder of how disruptions globally can spill over to Canadian production and price growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The U.S. economy is much less trade sensitive than many of its trading partners (including Canada)\u2014and we do not have a recession as a base case expectation for the U.S. economy. But, tariff hikes, headwinds from government spending cuts and reduced immigration are adding to yellow flags in the U.S. economic outlook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trade uncertainty is here to stay<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

With or without additional tariff measures, trade uncertainty is threatening to slow consumer and business spending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our tracking of Canadian consumer spending <\/a> is holding up significantly better than consumer confidence so far. And, motor vehicle sales spiked higher in both Canada and the U.S., likely in part as consumers rushed to get ahead of possible auto tariff hikes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But, we expect business investment in Canada will remain weak <\/a> regardless of additional tariff measures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nathan Janzen<\/strong> is an Assistant Chief Economist, leading the macroeconomic analysis group. His focus is on analysis and forecasting macroeconomic developments in Canada and the United States.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Claire Fan<\/strong> is an economist at RBC. She focuses on macroeconomic analysis and is responsible for projecting key indicators including GDP, employment and inflation for Canada and the US.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This post was originally published on <\/em>thoughtleadership.rbc.com <\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A lower tariff rate increase is positive for Canada on a relative basis, but that will be little consolation if overall tariffs are large enough to shrink U.S. 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