{"id":27688,"date":"2025-04-04T11:46:09","date_gmt":"2025-04-04T15:46:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-ca\/?p=27688"},"modified":"2025-04-04T12:53:09","modified_gmt":"2025-04-04T16:53:09","slug":"europe-united-in-adversity","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-ca\/insights\/europe-united-in-adversity","title":{"rendered":"Europe: United in adversity"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\n Seismic changes are taking place in Europe. Prompted by signs that the\n traditional U.S. security support could be withdrawn or at least\n downsized, the German parliament recently passed landmark fiscal stimulus\n measures, a move which had eluded generations of lawmakers. The country is\n now poised to enter a new phase, in our view, moving beyond a period in\n which fiscal constraints stifled growth and undermined competitiveness.\n <\/p>\n

\n The German fiscal package relaxes the limitation on structural deficits to\n allow for higher defence spending, a measure that effectively leaves\n defence spending unconstrained. It also creates a special fund for\n infrastructure investments of as much as \u20ac500 billion (or a sizeable\n 12 percent of annual GDP) over the next 12 years. Transport, hospitals and\n care, energy, education, digitization, and R&D are all targeted.\n <\/p>\n

\n It is notable that these measures were championed by chancellor-to-be\n Friedrich Merz, leader of the CDU\/CSU party, who had recently campaigned\n on preserving fiscal restraint. His significant pivot points to the\n seriousness of both the situation and the commitment.\n <\/p>\n

\n Meanwhile, the European Commission has proposed a plan to address\n deficiencies in the region\u2019s defence capabilities by 2030, with\n recommended funding of up to \u20ac800 billion. This includes \u20ac150 billion of\n joint EU loans for defence investment and making defence spending by\n member states exempt from the bloc\u2019s deficit rules.\n <\/p>\n

\n Joint debt issuance has long been a contentious issue within the EU, and\n historically has been reserved for times of crisis such as the COVID-19\n pandemic. Wealthier northern member states have been reluctant to\n subsidize their less-affluent neighbours, making such measures politically\n sensitive. The fact that joint issuance is once again being considered\n underscores the urgency of the current situation and suggests willingness\n to strengthen financial unity within the bloc may be growing. European\n Union leaders will now seek approval for the plan in their own countries.\n <\/p>\n \n

Improving economic prospects<\/h2>\n

\n These changes are occurring as the region\u2019s domestic economy is picking\n up. RBC Capital Markets economists point out that real incomes have grown\n modestly as inflation has subsided. This and the delayed pass-through of\n the European Central Bank\u2019s (ECB) cuts to outstanding mortgage rates\n should underpin a revival of consumption.\n <\/p>\n

\n Economic activity indicators such as the HCOB Eurozone Composite\n Purchasing Managers\u2019 Index are now narrowly in expansion territory.\n <\/p>\n \n

\n The underlying European economy is running above long-term average growth\n rates\n <\/h3>\n

Contributors to European Union GDP growth<\/h4>\n
\n
\n \"Contributors\n

\n The graph shows a quarterly breakdown of European Union GDP since Q1\n 2022 and three major contributors to it: private consumption,\n government consumption, and fixed investment. The data has been very\n volatile over this period. Private consumption played a very modest\n role from Q2 2023 to Q2 2024. Since Q3 2024, it has become a more\n important driver of economic growth. In Q4 2024, all three\n contributors had a positive impact on growth and since Q2 2024, the\n economy has grown consistently quarter over quarter.\n <\/p>\n

    \n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Private consumption\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Government consumption\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Fixed investment\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div><\/div>\n Final domestic demand q\/q\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Long-term average demand\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

    \n Note: Ireland excluded due to volatile data.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Source – RBC Wealth Management, RBC Capital Markets, Haver Analytics,\n Eurostat\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

    \n Germany\u2019s fiscal package and the EU\u2019s defence spending are also modest\n tailwinds. RBC Capital Markets economists calculate that Germany\u2019s\n infrastructure spending, if ramped up over the next three years, could have a\n growth impact of 0.5 percent of GDP per year for the country, or\n 0.15 percent for the euro area. The impact could be larger in the near\n term if spending is front-loaded. Moreover, they estimate that increasing\n the EU\u2019s overall defence spending to three percent of GDP in 2030 from the\n current 1.4 percent could have a direct impact of 0.3 percent per year on\n real GDP growth, on average, by 2030. However, they concede that this is\n an aggressive assumption, given that most Western militaries are already\n suffering recruitment challenges even before any additional spending.\n <\/p>\n

    \n RBC Capital Markets recently increased its overall eurozone GDP growth\n projections by approximately 0.5 percentage points per year, bringing\n anticipated GDP growth to 1.9 percent in 2026 and 1.8 percent in 2027.\n <\/p>\n \n

    Tariff uncertainty continues<\/h2>\n

    \n The clear risk to these estimates is a trade war. RBC Global Asset\n Management Inc. Chief Economist Eric Lascelles maintains that the impact\n of tariffs on European economies is \u201cunlikely to be too painful,\u201d because\n unlike Canada and Mexico, Europe does not trade intensively enough with\n the U.S. The ECB had calculated that a 25 percent blanket tariff could\n crimp regional GDP growth by 0.3 percentage points over 12 months. Though\n the tariffs imposed by the White House are a little lower, at 20 percent,\n the impact on economic growth will depend on how long they are sustained,\n how the EU responds, and how badly the new trade policies hurt business\n and consumer confidence both in the region and globally.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Lascelles continues to believe that a deal will be struck eventually, and\n that lower, partial tariffs will end up being imposed, much like during\n the first Trump presidency\u2014though this could take many months. In the\n meantime, the economies of the largest European exporters to the U.S.\n (including Germany and Italy) are likely to bear the brunt of impacts. The\n effect on corporate earnings should be relatively limited given that many\n companies have manufacturing operations in the U.S.\n <\/p>\n

    \n For now, we believe the new positive fiscal impulse in the euro area\n should offset the negative tariff impact, though we acknowledge the risk\n to growth may well be downwards.\n <\/p>\n \n

    Planning a new itinerary<\/h2>\n

    \n The European Union\u2019s structural issues, including a lack of investment by\n Germany, have been a key reason for global investors\u2019 caution towards the\n European stock market. Recent developments suggest the bloc may be ready\n to tackle those issues, acting with urgency and cohesion. Reflecting this\n sentiment, markets have rallied year to date\u2014but unbridled enthusiasm has\n given way to skepticism about implementation. Very large stimulus programs\n come with risks, including timing challenges and the potential for\n misallocation of funds. Tariff worries are also weighing on regional\n equities.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Nevertheless, we believe that on a 6-to-12-month horizon, a Market Weight\n position in the region is now appropriate, up from an Underweight. This\n new positioning better reflects the improved outlook, while acknowledging\n that U.S. tariff developments could lead to volatility.\n <\/p>\n

    \n European equity valuations remain close to an all-time low relative to\n U.S. and global peers on a sector-adjusted basis. In our view, being\n selective and taking an active approach are crucial for this region, as it\n provides a rich and varied opportunity set for stock selection. We believe\n there are potential opportunities in Europe\u2019s world-leading companies with\n structural global tailwinds, particularly in Technology, Health Care, and\n Industrials. We also see opportunities in niches exposed to the improving\n domestic picture and to areas targeted by new fiscal policies, including\n banks, defence, and capital goods.\n <\/p>\n

    With contributions from Thomas McGarrity, CFA<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    New and non-traditional rhetoric from the U.S. has galvanized European leaders. Defence spending has become a priority and this, along with a shift in German fiscal policy, should support growth. Despite the risks inherent in a trade war, we believe portfolios should be exposed to the region.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":27689,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2025-04-03T10:21:28","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[73],"tags":[802,482,799,768],"rbcwm_content_owner":[607],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[74],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-27688","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-defence-spending","tag-gdp-growth","tag-mortgage-rate-cuts","tag-tariffs","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"New and non-traditional rhetoric from the U.S. has galvanized European leaders. 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