{"id":28518,"date":"2025-06-06T09:55:55","date_gmt":"2025-06-06T13:55:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-ca\/?p=28518"},"modified":"2025-06-06T11:58:55","modified_gmt":"2025-06-06T15:58:55","slug":"big-and-beautiful-or-not","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-ca\/insights\/big-and-beautiful-or-not","title":{"rendered":"\u201cBig and beautiful\u201d or not?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\n      Right on cue, political jabs about the tax and budget bill recently passed\n      in the U.S. House of Representatives\u2014formally called the\n      <strong>\u201cOne Big Beautiful Bill Act\u201d<\/strong>\u2014are heating up, and the\n      legislation is increasingly catching investors\u2019 attention.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      The political theater might be amusing to us if the country\u2019s federal\n      legislators were held in higher standing\u2014the collective rating of the\n      House and Senate is currently at only 26 percent, according to Gallup\u2014and\n      if their track record on managing spending and the country\u2019s debt load was\n      better.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>Tax relief usually brings relief to the stock market<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      <strong\n        >We think the stock market generally favours the tax and stimulus\n        provisions in the budget bill\u2014political rhetoric aside.<\/strong\n      >\n    <\/p>\n    <ul class=\"list-spaced\">\n      <li>\n        The House version of the bill extends the low tax rates for individuals\n        that became effective in 2018 during President Donald Trump\u2019s first\n        term;\n      <\/li>\n      <li>\n        includes new tax exemptions on gratuities and overtime pay;\n      <\/li>\n      <li>\n        provides an extra $4,000 tax deduction for filers age 65 and older;\n      <\/li>\n      <li>\n        includes a new $1,000 cash payment for newborns in an investment account\n        and additional investment incentives in such accounts, and higher tax\n        credits for families with children;\n      <\/li>\n      <li>\n        and incorporates generous business incentives, including accelerated\n        depreciation of capital investments.\n      <\/li>\n    <\/ul>\n    <p>\n      In fact, we can\u2019t remember a time when the stock market hasn\u2019t embraced\n      low tax rates, tax exemptions and direct cash payments, and business\n      incentives\u2014regardless of fiscal implications.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      The stock market\u2019s general logic is that the more money in individuals\u2019\n      pockets and businesses\u2019 accounts, the more spending on goods and\n      services\u2014which can benefit some S&amp;P 500 companies and others listed on\n      stock exchanges by boosting profit growth, at least somewhat.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>A leery bond market<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      However, the bond market seems to see this differently. It\u2019s starting to\n      act more like a responsible adult or grandparent, in our view.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      <strong\n        >Treasury market investors\u2014especially large institutional investors in\n        the U.S. and abroad\u2014are taking a more circumspect look at the deficit\n        and debt projections associated with the legislation.<\/strong\n      >\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO)\u2014the official scorekeeper\n      of the costs associated with such legislation\u2014projects the bill will\n      increase annual federal deficits over the next 10 years by $2.4 trillion\n      cumulatively. In other words, tack on that amount to the country\u2019s current\n      $37 trillion in federal debt.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      The White House and many Republicans argue it won\u2019t end up nearly this bad\n      and future deficits could decline, whereas Democrats say deficits will be\n      far worse. Regardless, it\u2019s anyone\u2019s guess as far as we\u2019re concerned.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      <strong>We think fuzzy math has dominated Washington for decades. <\/strong\n      >Previous budget bills passed under the leadership of each party and\n      scored by the CBO, along with loads of additional spending on emergencies\n      and for other purposes, have pushed federal government finances deep into\n      the red.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      <strong\n        >Importantly, we think the bond market is starting to show signs of\n        being less tolerant of ultra-high deficits.\n      <\/strong>\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>Stumbling blocks in the Senate<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      <strong\n        >We anticipate difficult negotiations between Senate and House\n        Republicans before the \u201cOne Big Beautiful Bill Act\u201d can arrive on the\n        president\u2019s desk for his signature.<\/strong\n      >\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      There are a few key provisions currently in dispute, including one\n      affecting foreign investors.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      <strong\n        >Overall spending levels and the need for deficit reduction:<\/strong\n      >\n      Some Republican senators, especially those with libertarian leanings\n      (Senators Rand Paul, Mike Lee, and Ron Johnson), strongly disagree with\n      the high spending levels and fiscal deficits associated with the House\n      bill.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      <strong>SALT deduction: <\/strong>The House bill raises the cap on the\n      state and local tax (SALT) deduction to $40,000, which benefits taxpayers\n      in high-tax states. Many Republican senators in low-tax states strongly\n      oppose this.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      <strong>Medicaid spending: <\/strong>The House bill includes a work\n      requirement for some Medicaid recipients. Some Republican senators oppose\n      what they view as cuts to Medicaid benefits and are concerned about\n      lower-income individuals potentially falling off the health care insurance\n      rolls; Democrats agree with them.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      <strong>Section 899: <\/strong>This controversial section of the House bill\n      contains \u201cretaliatory tax provisions\u201d on select foreign governments,\n      overseas companies, and foreign investors in certain U.S. securities. As\n      written, the language is complex yet vague in some areas, and there are\n      disagreements between tax specialists on which securities and which\n      foreign investors would be impacted.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      In practice, according to the Tax Foundation, a Washington, D.C.-based\n      nonpartisan tax policy firm, Section 899 targets countries that have\n      instituted a global minimum tax or have digital services or diverted\n      profits taxes. It assesses that certain entities and individuals in\n      Canada, the UK, many EU countries, and Australia could be affected if\n      these taxes remain in place or these foreign governments are unable to\n      negotiate a compromise with the U.S. government.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      The Tax Foundation views Section 899 as being harmful to the U.S. economy\n      due to its potential implications on foreign direct investment into the\n      U.S. We also view it negatively for this reason. Furthermore, the\n      legislative language currently includes a lot of gray areas and cedes wide\n      discretion to the Treasury secretary to specify retaliatory taxes and\n      other issues.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      <strong\n        >We would be surprised if the House\u2019s Section 899 language stays intact\n        after going through the Senate.\n      <\/strong>\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      <strong\n        >Financial industry lobbyists and foreign lobbyists are already trying\n        to get the Section 899 House language either:<\/strong\n      >\n    <\/p>\n    <ul class=\"list-spaced\">\n      <li>\n        <strong>modified<\/strong> to minimize the impact on foreign investors\n        and companies;\n      <\/li>\n      <li>\n        <strong>clarified<\/strong> to spell out the retaliatory taxes much more\n        clearly and provide the Treasury secretary with less discretion;\n      <\/li>\n      <li>\n        <strong>or stripped from the bill altogether.<\/strong>\n      <\/li>\n    <\/ul>\n    <p>\n      Also, it\u2019s possible there will be at least one procedural challenge in the\n      Senate to remove Section 899.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      It\u2019s normal for the Senate to modify controversial provisions of House\n      bills, especially when it\u2019s being lobbied hard. We never underestimate\n      industry lobbyists\u2019 power and influence, and the financial lobby has been\n      successful in the past in achieving at least some of its objectives.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>Moving toward the finish line<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      <strong\n        >Regardless of the merits and demerits of the \u201cOne Big Beautiful Bill,\u201d\n        we think House and Senate Republicans will be forced to ultimately craft\n        compromise legislation out of political necessity\u2014although the process\n        could get very messy.\n      <\/strong>\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      This is because if they fail to do so, a major tax increase would occur in\n      2026 on individuals, ahead of the midterm elections in November of next\n      year. Therefore, we think Trump has every incentive to spend a lot of\n      political capital to muscle through a final compromise version of the bill\n      in both chambers.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      This doesn\u2019t, however, make us any less concerned about the very high\n      federal annual deficit and cumulative debt.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      <strong\n        >Our forthcoming Global Insight 2025 Midyear Outlook, available in\n        mid-June, will discuss how investors in U.S. stock and bond markets\n        should perceive the risks associated with the runaway federal debt and\n        high annual deficits. Stay tuned.<\/strong\n      >\n    <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With the centerpiece of U.S. President Donald Trump\u2019s economic agenda winding its way through Congress, we examine what\u2019s of key interest to markets and investors, before noting why the ultimate outcome of the bill is likely to look different.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":28519,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2025-06-05T09:46:40","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[73],"tags":[836,834,835],"rbcwm_content_owner":[607],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[74],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-28518","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-bond-market","tag-healthcare-insurance","tag-high-deficit","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"With the centerpiece of U.S. President Donald Trump\u2019s economic agenda winding its way through Congress, we 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