{"id":30616,"date":"2025-10-31T11:00:48","date_gmt":"2025-10-31T15:00:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-ca\/?p=30616"},"modified":"2025-11-03T10:25:50","modified_gmt":"2025-11-03T15:25:50","slug":"the-fed-raises-the-bar-for-lower-rates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-ca\/insights\/the-fed-raises-the-bar-for-lower-rates","title":{"rendered":"The Fed raises the bar for lower rates"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\n If you spend any amount of time following the U.S. Federal Reserve, you\n learn the turns of phrase that policymakers like to rely on.\n <\/p>\n

\n One such phrase that has been a hallmark of Fed Chair Jerome Powell\u2019s\n tenure, during stretches of both raising and cutting interest rates, is:\n \u201cpolicy is not on a preset course.\u201d It has been employed as a gentle\n reminder for investors and markets that the Fed doesn\u2019t know\u2014or plan\u2014what\n it is going to do at any given meeting, even if investors and markets are\n all but certain of what the Fed is going to do.\n <\/p>\n

\n Prior to this week\u2019s meeting, markets were pricing a near 100 percent\n chance that the Fed would cut rates again at the December meeting. Powell\n could have easily noted half-heartedly once again that \u201cpolicy is not on a\n preset course\u201d and got on with things.\n <\/p>\n

He deliberately chose not to.<\/p>\n \n

\u201c\u2026 not a foregone conclusion\u2014far from it\u201d<\/h2>\n

\n That, in so many words, is how Powell characterized the chances of another\n rate cut in December. And with that statement, the markets now see the\n likelihood of a December rate cut as below a 70 percent probability, while\n prospects for future cuts into 2026 have also dimmed.\n <\/p>\n

\n The Fed, as widely expected, cut rates for a second consecutive meeting to\n a target range of 3.75 percent to four percent. But as we noted after the\n Fed\u2019s September meeting, which featured updated interest rate projections\n (this meeting did not), even though the median forecast suggested rate\n cuts to 3.50 percent to 3.75 percent by the end of the year, the median\n only masked the fact that there were two growing factions at the Fed\u2014the\n hawks who saw no more rate cuts this year, and the doves who saw multiple.\n <\/p>\n

We think the hawks both have the edge, and a better case to be made.<\/p>\n \n

Where do interest rates go from here?<\/h3>\n
\n
\n \"The\n
    \n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Consensus forecast range\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Federal funds rate\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n RBC forecast\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n Market-implied forecast\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

    \n Source – RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg, RBC Capital Markets\n forecasts as of October 2025; market pricing based on federal funds\n futures\n <\/p>\n

    \n The line chart shows the path of the federal funds rate since June\n 2024 from 5.50% to a current upper bound of 4.00%. RBC Capital Markets\n forecasts no further rate cuts this year, but two more 25 basis point\n cuts in 2026 to an upper bound of 3.50%. Markets continue to expect\n the Fed to cut closer to 3.00% next year. The range of forecasts from\n the Bloomberg Consensus Survey of Analysts for future rate cuts are\n also shown; the ranges get larger as they go further into the future,\n from 3.50%\u00ac\u20134.00% in December 2025 to 2.25%\u20134.00% in December 2026.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n

    Risk management goes both ways<\/h2>\n

    \n With another rate cut this week, the Fed has taken out even more insurance\n against the risk of further labour market cooling. And early signs already\n point to labour market stability.\n <\/p>\n

    \n This week, payroll processor ADP announced what will be a new weekly index\n of hiring activity, with the first report noting that: \u201cFor the four weeks\n ending Oct. 11, 2025, the National Employment Report pulse shows that\n private employers added an average of 14,250 jobs per week. This growth in\n employment suggests that the U.S. economy is emerging from its recent\n trough of job losses.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

    \n Consumer data also released this week showed just 18 percent of those\n surveyed viewed jobs as \u201chard to get\u201d in October. That is off-the-record\n lows seen in prior years, but largely unchanged since May and still below\n what could be deemed as \u201cnormal,\u201d and far below levels seen during and\n after past recessions.\n <\/p>\n \n

    Labour market still cooling, but is it cold?<\/h3>\n

    Percentage of U.S. consumers reporting jobs are \u201chard to get\u201d<\/h4>\n
    \n
    \n \"Percentage\n
      \n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n Recessions\n <\/li>\n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n Consumers: “jobs hard to get”\n <\/li>\n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n Average\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

      \n Source – RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg, Conference Board Consumer\n Survey\n <\/p>\n

      \n The line chart shows the percentage of consumers responding to a\n monthly survey by the Conference Board who viewed jobs as “hard to\n get” from 1970 through October 2025. In October, roughly 18% held that\n view; the proportion has been generally increasing since mid-2022 but\n remains below the long-term average of 25%.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

      \n So, if the labour market is already stabilizing, and has scope to play out\n a repeat of last year\u2014when the Fed\u2019s brief rate cut cycle sparked a\n notable uptick in hiring\u2014then we think the Fed\u2019s focus may shift back to\n the inflation side of the mandate.\n <\/p>\n

      \n On that basis, we believe the Fed would be prudent to hold rates steady\n into 2026.\n <\/p>\n \n

      Driving in the fog<\/h2>\n

      \n Another quotable quote from Powell this week was this: \u201cWhat do you do if\n you are driving in the fog? Slow down … again, I am not committing to\n that, but I am saying it is certainly a possibility that you would say, we\n really can\u2019t see, so let\u2019s slow down.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

      \n It was uncertain how the Fed might approach the ongoing government\n shutdown and the subsequent lack of economic data. Would policymakers\n proceed with rate cuts on the idea that it\u2019s better to be safe than sorry?\n <\/p>\n

      \n Now we have an answer. Not only is it likely that the shutdown will last\n well into November, in our opinion, it will take months beyond that for\n any noise in the data to fade. Absent a marked downturn in labour market\n activity gleaned from various anecdotal data sources, we believe the Fed\n will likely err on the side of doing too little, rather than too much.\n <\/p>\n

      \n With rates now below four percent, and ever closer to the Fed\u2019s estimated\n three percent \u201cneutral\u201d rate for the economy, cutting rates into an\n economy that could ultimately prove to be stronger than the Fed might\n expect\u2014a running theme in recent years\u2014would only stoke further\n inflationary pressures, in our view.\n <\/p>\n \n

      Is the Fed now just a background character?<\/h2>\n

      \n While we maintain our view that the Fed will cut more slowly, and\n ultimately to a higher terminal level, we now see that as less of a risk\n for markets broadly.\n <\/p>\n

      \n Our biggest concern with respect to risk assets was what we viewed as\n overly aggressive rate cut expectations on the part of traders paired with\n record highs for many stock market indexes and historically tight credit\n spreads in corporate bond markets.\n <\/p>\n

      \n Now that the gap has been narrowed, the muted reaction this week from\n risky assets such as equities and corporate bonds suggests that markets\n might be content with where the Fed stands. Rates have already been cut by\n 150 basis points over the past 13 months, with policymakers still at the\n ready to do more if needed.\n <\/p>\n

      \n The main character is now clearly AI, starring in a show about capital\n spending, strong earnings and ever-higher valuations. The Fed is just a\n subplot.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Despite a second consecutive rate cut, a hawkish turn from the Fed supports our view that it\u2019s on hold until at least 2026. While that may have previously caused market turbulence, investors seem content with the idea the Fed has already done enough.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":30618,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2025-10-30T10:25:39","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[73],"tags":[256,222,909,668],"rbcwm_content_owner":[607],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[74],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-30616","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-federal-reserve","tag-interest-rates","tag-labour","tag-labour-market","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"Despite a second consecutive rate cut, a hawkish turn from the Fed supports our view that it\u2019s on hold until at least 2026. 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