{"id":31015,"date":"2025-12-02T09:35:19","date_gmt":"2025-12-02T14:35:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-ca\/?p=31015"},"modified":"2025-12-02T09:35:20","modified_gmt":"2025-12-02T14:35:20","slug":"global-insight-2026-outlook-united-states","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-ca\/insights\/global-insight-2026-outlook-united-states","title":{"rendered":"Global Insight 2026 Outlook: United States"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<!-- KEY POINTS -->\n    <div class=\"well b-blue-tint-4 mb-3\">\n      <ul class=\"list-spaced medium\">\n        <li>\n          There are enough potential catalysts for investors to give the U.S.\n          equity market the benefit of the doubt as 2026 begins.\n        <\/li>\n        <li>\n          Fixed income yields remain historically attractive, but bond prices\n          could face modest downward pressure in 2026 as the Fed ends rate cuts,\n          muting total returns.\n        <\/li>\n      <\/ul>\n    <\/div>\n\n    <!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>United States equities<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      For the bull market to persist through 2026, we think some catalysts need\n      to converge and an obstacle must be overcome:\n    <\/p>\n    <ul class=\"list-spaced\">\n      <li>\n        The U.S. economy and corporate profits have to keep growing at healthy\n        clips\n      <\/li>\n      <li>\n        The focus of the AI development cycle probably needs to start shifting\n        from \u201cAI&nbsp;1.0\u201d (which has been mostly a capital spending story to build\n        infrastructure and train and run AI models) to \u201cAI&nbsp;2.0\u201d (where signs of\n        productivity and financial benefits start accruing to companies inside\n        and outside of the technology industry)\n      <\/li>\n      <li>\n        The market must buck the trend where the S&#038;P&nbsp;500 has experienced an\n        average 22 percent correction surrounding midterm election years since\n        1934\n      <\/li>\n    <\/ul>\n    <p>\n      A tall order? Perhaps, but we\u2019re mindful the market has jumped over high\n      hurdles before.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      RBC Global Asset Management, LLP\u2019s Chief Economist Eric Lascelles\n      anticipates U.S. GDP will grow 2.2 percent in 2026, right at the 2.2\n      percent average since 2000 and above the 1.9 percent consensus forecast.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      While the gap between tech and non-tech earnings growth rates should\n      shrink further, overall S&#038;P&nbsp;500 profit growth will likely still be heavily\n      impacted by AI capital spending and cloud computing given these stocks\n      represent a large share of the market\u2019s value (aka capitalization). The\n      2026 S&#038;P&nbsp;500 consensus profit forecast looks somewhat lofty to us: 12.8\n      percent year-over-year growth based on $310 earnings per share. We\u2019re\n      still wary of the market\u2019s elevated forward price-to-earnings (P\/E)\n      valuation of 21.3x compared to the 18.6x 10\u2011year average; however, we\n      don\u2019t think high P\/Es will create problems until economic and\/or earnings\n      growth begin to buckle.\n    <\/p>\n\n    <!-- U.S. EQUITIES CHART -->\n    <h3>Earnings expectations: More growth ahead in 2026?<\/h3>\n    <h4>\n      S&#038;P&nbsp;500 year-over-year earnings growth (dark blue) and consensus forecasts\n      (light&nbsp;blue)\n    <\/h4>\n    <div class=\"row mb-4\">\n      <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\"\n          src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/global\/gio-2026-US-en-equities-chart-1.png\"\n          alt=\"S&#038;P 500 year-over-year earnings growth and consensus forecasts\"\n          class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\"\n          aria-describedby=\"us-equities-desc\"\n        \/>\n        <p class=\"sr-only\" id=\"us-equities-desc\">\n          S&#038;P&nbsp;500 earnings grew at the following rates on a year-over-year\n          basis. 2022 5.4%, 2023 0.9%, 2024 9.8%. The consensus forecast is for\n          earnings to growth 11.6% in 2025 and 12.8% in 2026.\n        <\/p>\n        <p class=\"disclaimer\">\n          Source &#8211; RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg (past earnings growth and\n          consensus forecasts for 2025 and 2026); data as of 11\/24\/25\n        <\/p>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n\n    <p>\n      Questions about whether AI is in a bubble should linger into 2026, at\n      least. We\u2019re uncomfortable with certain aspects of the boom, including the\n      recent surge in circular financing deals\u2014when a large AI company invests\n      in a smaller AI company\/startup, and the latter uses part or much of the\n      financing to buy hardware and\/or services from the large AI company. The\n      possibility that unprecedented capex spending could soon run into power\n      generation and related regulatory constraints is also of concern. But at\n      this stage, we see certain yellow warning signs rather than a full-fledged\n      bubble.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      We begin 2026 with a Market Weight allocation to U.S. equities and favour\n      dividend growth stocks because of their defensive characteristics and the\n      Health Care sector due to its potential for improved earnings growth. We\n      advise investors to be nimble overall and vigilant about single-stock and\n      sector exposures by bringing them back in balance when they drift out of\n      bounds.\n    <\/p>\n\n    <!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>United States fixed income<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      We see the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady for the bulk of\n      2026. Near-term bias remains toward further cuts to around 3.75 percent or\n      3.50 percent. But with core inflation likely to hold north of three percent\n      next year even as the unemployment rate is projected to rise modestly to\n      4.6 percent, in our view, we see little scope for interest rates to fall\n      further. In fact, should recent monetary policy easing\u2014paired with fiscal\n      stimulus via tax cuts\u2014stoke stronger economic activity next year, we think\n      markets could pivot the focus to the potential for rate hikes in late 2026\n      and into 2027.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Twenty-twenty-five was a historically strong year for bond market performance, but we\n      expect more-muted total return prospects for bonds in 2026. The Bloomberg\n      U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, a benchmark comprising investment-grade\n      government and corporate bonds, began 2025 with an average yield of\n      4.9 percent. But as yields have declined, in turn pushing bond prices\n      higher, the total return realized by investors has been even greater at\n      7.1 percent, one of the best years since 2000.\n    <\/p>\n\n    <!-- U.S. FIXED INCOME CHART -->\n    <h3>\n      Bond yields likely to open 2026 lower, but still near historically high\n      levels\n    <\/h3>\n    <h4>Beginning index yield (%)<\/h4>\n    <div class=\"row mb-4\">\n      <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\"\n          src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/global\/gio-2026-US-en-fixed-income-chart-2.png\"\n          alt=\"Starting yield levels on the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index since 2006\"\n          class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\"\n          aria-describedby=\"us-fi-desc\"\n        \/>\n        <ul class=\"rbc-legend\">\n          <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">\n            <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar c-tundra\"><\/div>\n            Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index yield (%)\n          <\/li>\n          <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">\n            <div class=\"rbc-legend-line rbc-legend-dashed c-sun\"><\/div>\n            20-year average\n          <\/li>\n        <\/ul>\n        <p class=\"sr-only\" id=\"us-fi-desc\">\n          The chart shows the starting yield levels on the Bloomberg U.S.\n          Aggregate Bond Index since 2006, compared to the average index yield\n          of 3.4% over that timeframe. In 2006, the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate\n          Bond Index was 5.1%, climbed to a timeframe high of 5.3% in 2007, and\n          then gradually fell to 1.7% in 2013. It trended up to 3.3% in 2019,\n          and then down to a timeframe low of 1.1% in 2021. After which, it rose\n          to 4.7% in 2023, with it sitting at 4.9% as of November 10, 2025. The\n          2026 estimate is 4.4%.\n        <\/p>\n        <p class=\"disclaimer\">RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index; current yield data as of 11\/10\/25 <\/p>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n\n    <p>\n      Given our expectations of minimal Fed rate cuts, near-average economic\n      growth, and elevated inflation above the Fed\u2019s target, we see scope for\n      modestly higher yields, putting downward pressure on prices and therefore\n      total returns. We project the 10-year Treasury yield to end 2026 at 4.55\n      percent, up from 4.06 percent currently.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Credit markets remain historically rich and exposed to potential headwinds\n      in 2026. The Bloomberg U.S. Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index offers\n      investors just 0.85 percent of incremental yield over comparable\n      Treasuries. We anticipate greater bond supply, largely from tech firms\n      looking to finance AI-related capital expenditures, to weigh on the\n      corporate bond sector and overall performance next year.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Municipal bonds were one of the more attractive fixed income sectors in\n      2025, but a rally to close out the year has diminished most of its appeal.\n      That said, we see lingering value in bonds beyond 10 years on the curve\n      where yields remain above recent averages.\n    <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stock and bond market returns face high hurdles in 2026, but we think the former should be given the benefit of the doubt.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":31016,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2025-12-02T11:44:07","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[73],"tags":[934,927,772,833,935,936],"rbcwm_content_owner":[607],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[74],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-31015","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-fixed-income-yields","tag-global-insight-2026-outlook","tag-global-insight-outlook","tag-u-s-equity-market","tag-united-states-equities","tag-united-states-fixed-income","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"Stock and bond market returns face high hurdles in 2026, but we think the former should be given the benefit of the doubt.","rbcwm_post_author":[1346,1342],"rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":"","disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[11937],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.8 (Yoast SEO v26.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Global Insight 2026 Outlook: United States<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Stock and bond market returns face high hurdles in 2026, but we think the former should be given the benefit of the 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