{"id":31383,"date":"2026-01-09T10:52:08","date_gmt":"2026-01-09T15:52:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-ca\/?p=31383"},"modified":"2026-01-09T10:52:09","modified_gmt":"2026-01-09T15:52:09","slug":"us-equity-returns-in-2025-record-breaking-resilience","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-ca\/insights\/us-equity-returns-in-2025-record-breaking-resilience","title":{"rendered":"U.S. equity returns in 2025: Record-breaking resilience"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\n      The U.S. equity market delivered its third straight year of double-digit\n      and above-average gains, with the S&amp;P&nbsp;500 rising\n      17.9&nbsp;percent including dividends in 2025, boosting the total return\n      to 100.6&nbsp;percent since this bull market began in Oct. 2022 through\n      the end of last year.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      The S&amp;P&nbsp;500 and stock markets globally dropped meaningfully in\n      the spring of 2025, punctuated by the Trump administration\u2019s introduction\n      of ultra-high \u201creciprocal\u201d tariffs on dozens of countries.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Then the S&amp;P&nbsp;500 surged nearly 39&nbsp;percent on a total-return\n      basis from the April low through year end as tariff rates were\n      subsequently lowered via trade deals and a temporary truce with China, and\n      AI companies went on to post strong earnings growth and raise profit\n      forecasts meaningfully.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      The market was also boosted as the domestic economy surprised to the\n      upside with well above-average GDP growth in Q2 and Q3 of last year,\n      rebounding from a slight retreat in Q1.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      The economic backdrop improved due to an unanticipated surge in AI capital\n      spending, three more Federal Reserve 25 basis-point interest rate cuts,\n      passage of the taxpayer- and business-friendly One Big Beautiful Bill Act,\n      and strong consumer spending among upper-income households. These forces\n      helped offset tariff headwinds.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- EXHIBIT 1-->\n    <h3>\n      The S&amp;P&nbsp;500 Index in 2025: A big selloff, and then a bigger rally\n    <\/h3>\n    <div class=\"row mb-4\">\n      <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\"\n          src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/global\/record-breaking-resilience-2025-chart-1.png\"\n          alt=\"The S&amp;P&nbsp;500 Index in 2025:  A big selloff, and then a bigger rally\"\n          class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\"\n          \n          aria-describedby=\"ex1desc\"\n        \/>\n        <p class=\"disclaimer\">\n          Source &#8211; RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; daily data through 12\/31\/25\n        <\/p>\n        <p class=\"sr-only\" id=\"ex1desc\">\n          The line chart shows the path of the S&#038;P 500 Index in 2025 with\n          notable events labeled. The index began the year at 5,868 and moved up\n          to a new all-time high of 6,144 in mid-February. It then declined into\n          March when Magnificent 7 and AI stocks pulled back, then bounced\n          slightly, but lurched lower when the Trump administration announced\n          ultra-high \u201creciprocal\u201d tariffs in early April and bottomed on April\n          8. When reciprocal tariffs were paused shortly thereafter, the market\n          started to move up, but when U.S. tariffs on China were raised to\n          145%, it sold off. It rose in late April, rose more when ultra-high\n          tariffs on China were paused in early May, and then pushed even higher\n          through early June. It then paused briefly when Middle East military\n          conflict escalated in mid-June. It moved steadily higher through late\n          October on strong earnings reports and company forecasts, led by AI\n          stocks. The index reached a new all-time high of 6,932.05 on December\n          24, 2025, before dipping slightly to end the year.\n        <\/p>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n    <p>\n      However, high prices for goods, services and housing due to cumulative\n      inflation growth since the pandemic continued to pinch lower- and\n      middle-income households. This was a drag on some retail and consumer\n      stocks that greatly underperformed the broader market.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>Big gains from a narrow group of stocks<\/h2>\n    <p>This bull market cycle has been dominated by AI-oriented stocks.<\/p>\n    <p>\n      Seven stocks represented just over half of the S&amp;P&nbsp;500\u2019s gains in\n      2025: NVIDIA, Alphabet, Microsoft, Broadcom, JPMorgan Chase, Palantir\n      Technologies and Meta Platforms. All of these stocks\u2014even banking\n      behemoth JPMorgan Chase\u2014have at least some exposure to the AI theme.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- EXHIBIT 2-->\n    <h3>\n      A small group of stocks represented a little over half of the annual gains\n    <\/h3>\n    <h4>Contributions to the S&amp;P&nbsp;500\u2019s 17.9% total return in 2025<\/h4>\n    <div class=\"row mb-4\">\n      <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\"\n          src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/global\/record-breaking-resilience-2025-chart-2.png\"\n          alt=\"Contributions to the S&amp;P&nbsp;500\u2019s 17.9% total return in 2025\"\n          class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\"\n          aria-describedby=\"ex2desc\"\n        \/>\n        <p class=\"footnote\">\n          * The five stocks, from largest to smallest contribution to the\n          S&amp;P 500 total return, were Microsoft, Broadcom, JPMorgan Chase,\n          Palantir Technologies, and Meta Platforms.\n        <\/p>\n        <p class=\"footnote\">\n          ** 524 stocks were in the S&amp;P&nbsp;500 during the period (two\n          Alphabet share classes counted once), a small number for part of the\n          year.\n        <\/p>\n        <p class=\"disclaimer\">\n          Source &#8211; RBC Wealth Management, FactSet; annual total-return data\n          (includes dividends) through 12\/31\/25.\n        <\/p>\n        <p class=\"sr-only\" id=\"ex2desc\">\n          The chart shows contributions to the S&#038;P 500\u2019s total return in 2025.\n          15.5% of the gains were from NVIDIA. 13.5% were from Alphabet. 23.1%\n          were from five other stocks, listed from largest to smallest\n          contribution: Microsoft, Broadcom, JPMorgan Chase, Palantir\n          Technologies, and Meta Platforms. The other 517 stocks that were\n          included in the index during all or part of the year contributed 47.9%\n          of the gains.\n        <\/p>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n    <p>\n      This group punched well above its weight. While these seven stocks\n      represented 25&nbsp;percent of the S&amp;P&nbsp;500\u2019s market\n      capitalization last year, they accounted for 52 percent of the index\u2019s\n      total return.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      This is the second year in a row that NVIDIA, Meta, Alphabet, Broadcom\n      and Microsoft were among the stocks that delivered the bulk of\n      S&amp;P&nbsp;500 gains\u2014partly due to their mega-sized market\n      capitalizations as a proportion of the index, and also because of their\n      strong share price performances.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>AI investment\u2019s starring role<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      The unprecedented capital spent to build AI data centres, including\n      purchases of advanced semiconductor chips and other hardware equipment,\n      not only helped drive the U.S. economy in 2025, it also fuelled AI stocks.\n      The continued development and training of AI large language models also\n      contributed to the advance of hyperscaler and chip\/hardware stocks, as did\n      high cloud computing revenue growth.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Based on assessments of company data, we estimate that seven large tech\n      firms invested $437 billion in capital in 2025 (data will be finalized\n      after Q4 earnings are released in coming weeks). This unprecedented level\n      is 61&nbsp;percent above what was spent in 2024 and almost 2.5 times more\n      than in 2023\u2014and even higher spending seems likely in 2026.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      We continue to view AI as a transformative technology\u2014at least as much, if\n      not more so than the development and mass commercialization of the\n      internet. RBC Global Asset Management Inc.\u2019s Chief Economist Eric\n      Lascelles\n      <a\n        href=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-ca\/insights\/quarter-century-crossroads\"\n        title=\"Quarter-century crossroads\"\n        >flagged AI<\/a\n      >\n      as one of the key long-term investment themes for the second quarter of\n      the 21st century.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      That said, currently there are open questions about the AI transformation\n      related to the ongoing data centre buildout and the technology\u2019s\n      uptake\u2014questions we raised in January\u2019s Global Insight.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      <a\n        href=\"https:\/\/www.rbcinsight.com\/wm\/Share\/ResearchViewer\/?SSS_A991993C7C705074EA0E135F32AEF748\" target=\"_blank\"\n        title=\"Navigating 2026 growth, AI momentum, and election-year dynamics\"\n        class=\"link-icon\"\n        >The article<\/a\n      >\n      that discusses this asserts that important AI developments \u201ccould leap\n      onto the stage anytime, potentially provoking even more investor\n      excitement or perhaps consternation. Either way, volatility events, up or\n      down, could be reasonably expected to emanate from AI and the related\n      components of the stock market.\u201d\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>Impact of earnings growth from the supporting cast<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      As AI stocks outperformed in 2025, so too did the tech-heavy\n      S&amp;P&nbsp;500 Growth Index and Nasdaq. This was largely due to strong\n      profit growth.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Information Technology sector net income (profits) grew 22&nbsp;percent in\n      Q1 2025 and accelerated to 29&nbsp;percent in Q3 on a year-over-year\n      basis, according to Bloomberg. The consensus forecast for Q4 (results will\n      be reported in coming weeks) and the first half of 2026 calls for strong\n      Tech sector earnings growth to persist, and earnings estimates have risen\n      in the past couple months.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      But last year\u2019s stock market rally and profit growth weren\u2019t solely about\n      AI and Tech stocks in general.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Excluding the Tech sector, the rest of the S&amp;P&nbsp;500 grew earnings\n      by an average of 9.8&nbsp;percent from Q1 through Q3 2025\u2014a pretty good\n      clip considering there were tariff headwinds during that period.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      As a result, the more diversified Dow Jones Industrial Average and the\n      more defensive S&amp;P&nbsp;500 Value Index also performed well in 2025\n      and eclipsed their long-term average annual returns. They both\n      outperformed the S&amp;P&nbsp;500 in the beginning and latter part of last\n      year. Like the S&amp;P&nbsp;500, they have also risen by double digits for\n      the third straight year.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- EXHIBIT 3-->\n    <h3>A number of U.S. indexes posted above-average returns in 2025<\/h3>\n    <h4>Full-year total returns (includes dividends)<\/h4>\n    <div class=\"row mb-4\">\n      <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\"\n          src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/global\/record-breaking-resilience-2025-chart-3.png\"\n          alt=\"Full-year total returns (includes dividends)\"\n          class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\"\n          aria-describedby=\"ex3desc\"\n        \/>\n        <p class=\"footnote\">\n          * \u201cU.S. Bond Index\u201d is the U.S. Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index;\n          \u201cDividend Growth\u201d is the S&amp;P&nbsp;500 Dividend Aristocrats Index.\n        <\/p>\n        <p class=\"disclaimer\">\n          Source &#8211; RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; data through 12\/31\/25\n        <\/p>\n        <p class=\"sr-only\" id=\"ex3desc\">\n          The bar chart shows total returns (including dividends) of select U.S.\n          stock and bond indexes in 2025. The returns are as follows: S&#038;P 500\n          Growth Index, 22.2%; Nasdaq Composite Index, 21.1%; S&#038;P 500 Index,\n          17.9%; Dow Jones Industrial Average, 14.9%; S&#038;P 500 Value Index,\n          13.2%; S&#038;P MidCap 400 Index, 7.5%; U.S. bonds (represented by the\n          Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index), 7.3%; dividend growth stocks\n          (represented by the S&#038;P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index), 7.3%; S&#038;P\n          Small Cap 600, 6.0%.\n        <\/p>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n    <p>\n      Prospects for 2026 earnings are also bright. Bloomberg\u2019s S&amp;P&nbsp;500\n      consensus forecast calls for $313 per share, up from $308 just two months\n      ago, and is 13.6&nbsp;percent higher than the current 2025 forecast.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      While 13.6&nbsp;percent year-over-year growth seems like a tall order, we\n      think the S&amp;P&nbsp;500 has the potential to deliver respectable\n      earnings growth this year. Whether the rate ends up beating, matching, or\n      missing the current consensus forecast will largely hinge on whether Tech\n      sector earnings remain robust.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>Tempered optimism<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      All told, seven of 11 S&amp;P&nbsp;500 sectors delivered double-digit\n      gains in 2025, and five sectors have risen 80&nbsp;percent or more since\n      the bull market began in Oct. 2022.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- EXHIBIT 4-->\n    <h3>\n      Seven of 11 sectors delivered double-digit returns, led by the two with\n      the most tech exposure\n    <\/h3>\n    <h4>S&amp;P&nbsp;500 and sector total returns (including dividends)<\/h4>\n    <div class=\"row mb-4\">\n      <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\"\n          src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/global\/record-breaking-resilience-2025-chart-4.png\"\n          alt=\"S&amp;P&nbsp;500 and sector total returns (including dividends)\"\n          class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\"\n          aria-describedby=\"ex4desc\"\n        \/>\n        <p class=\"disclaimer\">\n          Source &#8211; RBC Wealth Management, FactSet; data through 12\/31\/25\n        <\/p>\n        <p class=\"sr-only\" id=\"ex4desc\">\n          The bar chart shows S&#038;P 500 and sector total returns in two ways:\n          Cumulative return since the bull market began on October 12, 2022, and\n          full-year 2025 returns. All data include dividends. The returns are as\n          follows in this order: cumulative bull market, 2024 annual.\n          Communication Services: +190.5%, +33.7%. Information Technology:\n          +189.6%, +24.0%. Industrials: +91.2%, +19.4%. S&#038;P 500: +100.6%,\n          +17.9%. Utilities: +53.9%, +16.0%. Financials: +96.1%, +15.0%. Health\n          Care: +34.4%, +14.6%. Materials: +41.8%, -10.5%. Energy: +25.0%,\n          +8.3%. Consumer Discretionary: +80.8%, +6.0%. Consumer Staples:\n          +33.5%, +3.9%. Real Estate: +34.4%, +3.2%.\n        <\/p>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n    <p>\n      With the U.S. market\u2019s three-year winning streak in the books, it\u2019s only\n      natural to question whether the rally can be extended.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Since 1945, the S&amp;P&nbsp;500 has delivered back-to-back above-average\n      gains for three or more consecutive years on five other occasions (not\n      counting this cycle), including one streak that ran for four years and\n      another for five.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      The combination of lower inflation, lower interest rates and roughly two\n      percent or better GDP growth required for continued stock market gains may\n      not be easy to achieve in 2026, and the typical volatility associated with\n      midterm election years could also take its toll on the market at times. We\n      think a \u201cpositive\u201d rather than \u201cabove-average\u201d year is the outcome to plan\n      for.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      For more thoughts about our equity and fixed income views for this year\n      and longer-term investment themes, please have a look at the various\n      Global Insight 2026 Outlook articles\n      <a\n        href=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-ca\/campaign\/global-insight-outlook\"\n        title=\"Global Insight 2026 Outlook\"\n        >on&nbsp;the&nbsp;web<\/a\n      >\n      or in\n    <a\n      href=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/documents\/insights\/global-insight-2026-outlook.pdf\"\n      title=\"Global Insight 2026 Outlook (PDF) \" target=\"_blank\"\n      >PDF format<\/a\n    >.\n    <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>U.S. stocks powered through tariff turbulence on the way to all-time highs. But it\u2019s only natural to question whether the three-year winning streak can be extended. We look at what drove equities in 2025 and how prospects for 2026 are shaping up.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":31384,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2026-01-08T16:46:01","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[73],"tags":[949,205,686,976,953,658,661],"rbcwm_content_owner":[607],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[74],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-31383","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-ai-stocks","tag-equities","tag-sp-500","tag-sp-500-index","tag-stocks","tag-u-s-economy","tag-u-s-equities","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"U.S. stocks powered through tariff turbulence on the way to all-time highs. But it\u2019s only natural to question whether the three-year winning streak can be extended. We look at what drove equities in 2025 and how prospects for 2026 are shaping up.","rbcwm_post_author":[1346],"rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":"","disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[11937],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.8 (Yoast SEO v26.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>U.S. equity returns in 2025: Record-breaking resilience<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"U.S. stocks powered through tariff turbulence on the way to all-time highs. 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