{"id":31715,"date":"2026-02-06T12:35:45","date_gmt":"2026-02-06T17:35:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-ca\/?p=31715"},"modified":"2026-02-06T12:35:46","modified_gmt":"2026-02-06T17:35:46","slug":"trump-warshes-his-hands-of-powell","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-ca\/insights\/trump-warshes-his-hands-of-powell","title":{"rendered":"Trump Warshes his hands of Powell"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\n As fate would have it, on this day eight years ago Jerome Powell was sworn\n in as the 16th chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve,\n dating back to 1914. For perspective, there have been 20 different U.S.\n presidents over the same stretch.\n <\/p>\n

\n Clearly then, a new Fed chair is no insignificant occasion. But for all\n the drama around it, up to and including the pick of former Fed Governor\n Kevin Warsh to take over from Powell, is it really all that significant\n this time around?\n <\/p>\n \n

Getting to know you<\/h2>\n

\n By way of short introduction, following a relatively short stint on Wall\n Street, Warsh made the jump to the White House in 2002 via an economic\n advisory role, before famously becoming the youngest Fed governor in\n history in 2006\u2014which unceremoniously ended with his resignation in 2011\n largely in protest of the central bank\u2019s quantitative easing program.\n (More on that in a moment.)\n <\/p>\n

\n As has been widely covered by the media, Warsh\u2019s reputation is largely\n that of a traditional \u201chard money hawk,\u201d which naturally has raised\n eyebrows given Trump\u2019s very public\u2014and unambiguous\u2014desire to see interest\n rates lowered. Of course, views change, but since leaving the Fed in 2011\n there\u2019s simply little evidence to believe they have, in our view. While we\n think it\u2019s safe to say Warsh wouldn\u2019t have gotten the nod had he not\n voiced agreement with lower rates, Trump alluded to the reality that\n talking the talk is one thing, walking it is usually another, lamenting at\n the recent World Economic Forum in Davos that officials tend to \u201cchange\n once they get the job.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

\n All told, it\u2019s a fine choice, even if we don\u2019t find it a particularly\n inspired one. Beyond that, we think the market reaction\u2014to the limited\n degree we can explicitly tie it back to this choice\u2014likely is the exact\n opposite of what the administration hoped to see.\n <\/p>\n \n

Judgment day<\/h2>\n

\n It has been nearly a week since the initial reports that Trump had zeroed\n in on Warsh as his pick. And while it\u2019s never so easy to explain market\n dynamics via a singular lens, it does appear to us that the one-two combo\n of a Fed rate cut pause and a more hawkish-than-expected choice to replace\n Powell last week at a minimum kicked off this recent bout of market\n volatility and sector rotation.\n <\/p>\n

\n Since last Tuesday, Bitcoin has declined more than 25 percent; gold is\n down sharply, the dollar has rallied nearly two percent; the S&P 500\n has dropped to the lowest level since last December led by Tech and\n software\u2014all generally the opposite of what one would expect if Fed\n sentiment was seen as shifting more dovish with someone new at the helm.\n But market expectations for Fed rate cuts over the near- and long-terms\n are essentially unchanged\u2014the market-implied prospect of a cut at the\n Fed\u2019s June meeting is still barely 50 percent, while markets are still\n fully priced for roughly 50 basis points (bps) of cuts in total this\n year\u2014a far cry from the president\u2019s stated aim of rates being lowered by\n 200\u2013300 bps.\n <\/p>\n

\n Again, recent market rallies in certain corners of the market amid a\n confluence of factors left some asset classes at potentially lofty\n valuations, but sometimes all it takes is a spark. The other possibility,\n in our view, is that where questions remain about where Warsh\u2019s interest\n rate conviction lies, there\u2019s one area where his beliefs have remained\n consistent.\n <\/p>\n \n

Is this elephant with us in the room right now?<\/h2>\n

\n In a 2025 speech, Warsh perhaps laid out his broader ethos of the Fed, and\n where he may aim to leave his mark\u2014the Fed\u2019s balance sheet and what he\n perceives to be the Fed\u2019s \u201cmission creep\u201d away from its traditional\n congressional mandates of price stability and maximum employment.\n <\/p>\n

\n For nearly 20 years now, the Fed\u2019s balance sheet has been the elephant in\n the room for markets, and to some extent, the U.S. Congress. But via both\n purposeful, and natural, efforts\u2014the elephant simply isn\u2019t what it used to\n be. In absolute terms, the Fed\u2019s balance sheet is still north of $6\n trillion, but that is now just around 20 percent of U.S. GDP, and only 11\n percent of the market capitalization of the S&P 500, from peaks of\n closer to 35 percent and 30 percent, respectively. The Fed\u2019s footprint is\n already smaller than many might believe.\n <\/p>\n

\n And it\u2019s smaller still when we think about the drivers of its expansion.\n The chart shows a basic view of the Fed\u2019s assets and liabilities. Two\n liabilities it has are the currency in circulation, now at roughly $2.5\n trillion, and the cash the Treasury Department holds at the Fed in its\n general account, about $900 billion. The Fed controls neither of those\n things. And no, the Fed doesn\u2019t \u201cprint money;\u201d currency outstanding is\n simply a function of economic growth and the demand for it via the banking\n system.\n <\/p>\n \n

Breaking down the Fed\u2019s balance sheet<\/h3>\n

USD trillions<\/h4>\n
\n
\n \"Primary\n
    \n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Treasury General Account\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Bank reserve balances\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Currency in circulation\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n T-bills\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Mortgage-backed securities\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Treasury securities\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

    \n Source – RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; assets do not equal\n liabilities due to the exclusion of some smaller components for\n simplicity\n <\/p>\n

    \n The chart shows the primary assets and liabilities on the U.S. Federal\n Reserve\u2019s balance sheet. Both assets and liabilities increased after\n the 2008 financial crisis and again during the COVID-19 pandemic in\n 2020. Assets are T-bills, mortgage-backed securities, and Treasury\n securities. Liabilities are currency in circulation, bank reserve\n balances, and the Treasury General Account. Total assets rose to more\n than $8 trillion in 2022 and have since declined to roughly $6\n trillion. Liabilities reached more than $7 trillion in 2021 and are\n currently near $6 trillion.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

    \n At a minimum then, and through no fault of its own, the Fed\u2019s balance\n sheet would have to be at least roughly $3.5 trillion. The balance then is\n bank reserves, or the regulatory capital banks are required to have, at\n about $3 trillion. There could be regulatory relief to bring that number\n down. Against all of that, the Fed holds a mix of Treasuries and mortgages\n as assets. With limited room to shrink the balance sheet, Warsh could lead\n a drive to simplify it instead, by either selling mortgages and\/or by\n shortening the maturity of Treasuries. But in our view, that could drive\n longer-term bond yields and mortgage rates higher\u2014at odds with the\n administration\u2019s aim of bringing borrowing rates lower.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Markets, rightly or wrongly, might be concerned about Fed balance sheet\n issues. But just as interest rates are set by the Federal Open Market\n Committee (FOMC), so too are balance sheet decisions\u2014and we see no reason\n to believe that the core of the FOMC will see the need to change course\n under a new Fed chair. Still, this appears to us to be one risk factor\n that markets might be homing in on.\n <\/p>\n \n

    New Fed chair, same old problems?<\/h2>\n

    \n Our view had been that regardless of who replaced Powell, the power within\n the FOMC was likely to shift to the voting members and away from the\n chair, simply from the nature of the process thus far. Policy decisions\n will still be made prudently and based on the economic data by a\n majority\u2014but likely with more dissents at times.\n <\/p>\n

    \n One risk we see is what happens if the Fed opts not to cut rates at the\n June meeting when Warsh will take over if confirmed. What if there are\n only modest cuts this year, if any at all? Will Trump ramp up his\n criticism and risk further market volatility and further Fed independence\n fears? Could he try to replace Warsh?\n <\/p>\n

    \n Ultimately though, we think it\u2019s still business as usual. There\u2019s no free\n lunch, and no easy path to lower rates for the sake of lower rates. Fed\n decisions this year will be determined based on the incoming data, but as\n a new Fed chair is a relative rarity through history, it will almost\n certainly come with its own uncertainty for markets to navigate.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    President Donald Trump\u2019s campaign to get rid of Fed Chair Jerome Powell culminated in the most likely outcome\u2014simply nominating a replacement. With Kevin Warsh on track to be the next chair, we look at the potential economic and market impacts.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":31716,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2026-02-05T11:03:23","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[73],"tags":[988,765,256,989,990],"rbcwm_content_owner":[607],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[74],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-31715","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-fed-chair","tag-fed-rate-cuts","tag-federal-reserve","tag-jerome-powell","tag-kevin-warsh","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"President Donald Trump\u2019s campaign to get rid of Fed Chair Jerome Powell culminated in the most likely outcome\u2014simply nominating a replacement. With Kevin Warsh on track to be the next chair, we look at the potential economic and market impacts.","rbcwm_post_author":[1342],"rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":"","disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[11937],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"\nTrump Warshes his hands of Powell<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"President Donald Trump\u2019s campaign to get rid of Fed Chair Jerome Powell culminated in the most likely outcome\u2014simply nominating a replacement. 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