{"id":32694,"date":"2026-05-01T12:03:44","date_gmt":"2026-05-01T16:03:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-ca\/?p=32694"},"modified":"2026-05-01T12:03:45","modified_gmt":"2026-05-01T16:03:45","slug":"fed-change-is-afoot-in-more-ways-than-one","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-ca\/insights\/fed-change-is-afoot-in-more-ways-than-one","title":{"rendered":"Fed change is afoot, in more ways than one"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n

Change is afoot<\/h2>\n

\n Before we dive into the forthcoming change in leadership at the U.S.\n Federal Reserve, there were some notable\u2014and possibly even\n surprising\u2014developments as it pertains to the monetary policy outlook.\n <\/p>\n

\n Given that AI is all the rage, what does it have to say about the Fed\u2019s\n current stance? The first chart shows a natural language model from\n Bloomberg that scores the Fed chair\u2019s opening statement in terms of what\n it perceives to be hawkish sentences and dovish sentences, as well as an\n overall score\u2014and covers the span of Jerome Powell\u2019s tenure as chair from\n March 2018.\n <\/p>\n \n

Language model of Fed sentiment leans most hawkish since 2023<\/h3>\n
\n
\n \"Language\n
    \n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Hawkish sentences\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Dovish sentences\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div><\/div>\n Fed sentiment score\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

    \n Source – RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg Federal Reserve sentiment\n natural language model\n <\/p>\n

    \n The chart shows the Bloomberg natural language model index of Fed\n sentiment from Chairman Powell’s opening statement remarks, and the\n breakdown of perceived hawkish and perceived dovish sentences. Though\n largely dovish during his tenure, his remarks shifted notably hawkish\n at the April meeting.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

    \n Clearly, the model flagged a significant shift in tone at this week\u2019s\n meeting from mildly dovish in March to the most hawkish since 2023.\n Perhaps that\u2019s unsurprising given the ongoing risks posed to inflation\n from the emergence, and duration, of higher oil and gas prices.\n <\/p>\n

    \n But it\u2019s not just an oil and gas price story. Back in January, some\n policymakers were already seeing the need to communicate to markets that\n there are \u201ctwo-sided risks\u201d to the outlook for rates\u2014or that a rate cut\n could be just as likely as a rate hike. That cohort of \u201csome\u201d in January\n grew to \u201cseveral\u201d at the March meeting, having culminated in three\n official dissents at this week\u2019s meeting. To be clear, the dissenters\n sided with the decision to hold rates steady; they simply wanted to\n explicitly note those two-sided risks.\n <\/p>\n

    \n And the change they wanted to make to the statement was possibly as\n innocuous as deleting one word: \u201cadditional.\u201d As the official policy\n statement currently reads: \u201cIn considering the extent and timing of\n additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the\n Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook and\n the balance of risks.\u201d (Emphasis ours.)\n <\/p>\n

    \n After a series of rate cuts, we think that verbiage implies a further\n easing bias. The removal or modification of \u201cadditional\u201d would reflect a\n more neutral outlook, or one where the next step could either be a cut or\n a hike dependent on how the economy evolves.\n <\/p>\n

    \n When asked why the change in language wasn\u2019t made at this meeting, Powell\n noted the significance of such a shift as it relates to the forward\n guidance provided to markets and that most at the Fed still wanted to wait\n and assess further economic data before making the pivot.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Now the stage is set for a new Fed chair in Kevin Warsh (full Senate\n confirmation is expected in early May) and the next phase of monetary\n policy setting. Will that amendment be made at the next meeting in June?\n Will there be interest rate forecasts? Will there even be a press\n conference? Will there be anything at all?\n <\/p>\n \n

    Kevin Warsh to take the helm<\/h2>\n

    \n Warsh has often spoken of his desire for \u201cregime change\u201d at the Fed,\n specifically with respect to how it makes policy decisions, what those\n decisions are based upon and how those decisions are communicated to the\n public.\n <\/p>\n

    \n He has explicitly stated that he is not much of a fan of forward guidance,\n that the Fed communicates too much and that a press conference after\n every meeting might not be necessary. He has even entertained the idea\n that the Fed\u2014at eight meetings per year\u2014meets too often.\n <\/p>\n

    \n While we don\u2019t expect any major changes by his first meeting at the helm\n in June, and though these are things that may not have a direct market\n impact, we think it will be a slow-moving process that could be\n significant at the margin.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Part of his disdain for forward guidance, and forecasts such as those in\n the Fed\u2019s interest rate \u201cdot plot,\u201d seemingly stems from the idea that it\n relies too greatly on economic forecasts, that it ties the Fed\u2019s hands\n and that it confuses markets. It was Powell who increased the frequency of\n press conferences to every meeting, compared to only the quarterly\n meetings that featured updates to the Fed\u2019s Summary of Economic\n Projections. Then there\u2019s also the matter of Warsh\u2019s desire to see a\n smaller Fed balance sheet.\n <\/p>\n

    \n A lower level of transparency and communication could buy the Fed\n flexibility, but like anything it comes with a cost\u2014potentially in the\n form of steeper yield curves and higher term premiums for longer-dated\n bonds, in our view. While the Fed controls short-term interest rates, it\n has less influence on longer-term rates, such as the 10-year Treasury\n yield, which tend to more directly affect consumer and business lending\n rates. Forward guidance, the balance sheet at times, and jawboning are all\n tools at the Fed\u2019s disposal to anchor yields modestly lower when desired.\n A rejection of those tools could cause market participants to demand\n greater yield compensation to buy longer-dated bonds.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Ultimately, while Warsh will likely come in with a bias toward further\n rate reductions, we see risks that some of his proposals could actually be\n a disservice of that objective.\n <\/p>\n \n

    Should rate hike risks be taken more seriously?<\/h2>\n

    \n While Warsh faces what appears to be an increasingly divided voting\n committee, it\u2019s not just policymakers who are flagging the possibility\n that the Fed could pivot to rate hikes, so too are consumers.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Also released this week, the Conference Board\u2019s Consumer Confidence Survey\n found that 63 percent of those surveyed expected higher interest rates\n ahead, up from barely 50 percent last fall. The average reading of the\n survey over the past year has now risen to 55 percent, continuing a higher\n trend that had already begun back in Jan. 2024.\n <\/p>\n \n

    \n Consumers increasingly think higher interest rates could be in the\n pipeline\n <\/h3>\n
    \n
    \n \"Percentage\n
      \n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n 1-year change in fed funds rate (basis points, left)\n <\/li>\n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n Consumers expecting higher interest rates (%, right)\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

      \n Source – RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg, Conference Board Consumer\n Confidence Survey\n <\/p>\n

      \n The chart shows the one-year average of the percentage of consumers\n expecting higher interest rates, currently at 55%, compared to the\n one-year change of the Fed Funds rate, which has declined by 75 basis\n points over the past year. Given the strong correlation, increasing\n consumer interest rate expectations could be a leading indicator for\n Fed rate hikes.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

      \n Consumers actually have a pretty solid track record of getting the Fed\n call right. And with more consumers expecting higher rates, that\u2019s now at\n odds with a Fed that at a minimum is likely to keep rates unchanged this\n year, if still trying to maintain a policy easing bias.\n <\/p>\n \n

      Waning influence<\/h2>\n

      \n Above all else, perhaps the key takeaway for investors is this: the Fed\n chair\u2019s influence has been waning for decades, and we think that continues\n with Warsh\u2019s likely confirmation.\n <\/p>\n

      \n The days when Fed chairs, such as Paul Volcker, Alan Greenspan and Ben\n Bernanke, arguably held outsized stature and influence over the\n institution they served seems to have faded under Powell. Perhaps that\n will be his legacy\u2014not just the defence of the independence of the Fed,\n but the elevation of the broader voting committee and consensus-based\n decision-making that is bigger than any individual.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      A new era is at hand at the Fed with Kevin Warsh poised to become the next chair. We look at how this may affect monetary policy ahead and point out that the days when the chair held outsized influence over the institution may be a thing of the past.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":32695,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2026-04-30T10:54:29","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[73],"tags":[222,1025,1026],"rbcwm_content_owner":[607],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[74],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-32694","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-interest-rates","tag-the-fed","tag-u-s-federal-reserve","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"A new era is at hand at the Fed with Kevin Warsh poised to become the next chair. We look at how this may affect monetary policy ahead and point out that the days when the chair held outsized influence over the institution may be a thing of the past.","rbcwm_post_author":[1342],"rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":"","disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[11937],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"\nFed change is afoot, in more ways than one<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A new era is at hand at the Fed with Kevin Warsh poised to become the next chair. 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