{"id":33172,"date":"2026-06-15T10:24:32","date_gmt":"2026-06-15T14:24:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-ca\/?p=33172"},"modified":"2026-06-15T10:24:34","modified_gmt":"2026-06-15T14:24:34","slug":"bond-markets-seeing-the-forest-for-the-trees","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-ca\/insights\/bond-markets-seeing-the-forest-for-the-trees","title":{"rendered":"Bond markets seeing the forest for the trees"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<!-- SECTION -->\n    <div class=\"well b-blue-tint-4 mb-4\">\n      <h2 class=\"h5\">Key points<\/h2>\n      <ul class=\"list-spaced\">\n        <li>\n          Geopolitical events drove global bond yields higher in the first half\n          of the year, but this latest leg higher only continues a much broader\n          trend that has been in place for years.\n        <\/li>\n        <li>\n          Markets have repriced modest central bank rate hikes ahead, but the\n          reaction in longer-dated bond yields has been more significant,\n          suggesting bigger factors are at play. We see higher government bond\n          yields ahead.\n        <\/li>\n        <li>\n          Despite higher yields on offer, bond markets have struggled to perform\n          this year, which we expect to continue into year-end. We believe\n          investors should focus on coupon income as bond price appreciation due\n          to lower yields should remain elusive.\n        <\/li>\n      <\/ul>\n    <\/div>\n    <p>\n      At the halfway point of 2026, global bond markets are lagging the already\n      low expectations we held at the start of the year. Not only have many\n      major global bonds failed to earn their coupons, rising bond yields\u2014which\n      move inversely to bond prices\u2014have pressured prices lower to such a degree\n      that declines have more than offset coupons earned, putting total return\n      performance modestly in the red year-to-date.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      A simple explanation would be that the unexpected war in the Middle East\n      and the subsequent jump in oil prices, along with another round of supply\n      chain disruptions, have caused a temporary spike in inflation, central\n      bank rate hike expectations, and bond yields. There\u2019s a sense then that\n      these moves could be unwound just as quickly as they appeared if\/when\n      there\u2019s a resolution to the conflict. But we think that could be too\n      simple, and perhaps too myopic.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      While the Middle East conflict is no small issue, we do see it as just\n      another tree in a forest of reasons that has pressured global yields\n      higher not just this year, but for many years running at this point.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      The chart below stylizes just that. The gray lines represent the 30-year\n      government bond yields of the U.S., Canada, Germany, Japan, France, and\n      the UK. Which is which doesn\u2019t matter, and that\u2019s the point\u2014nearly all are\n      at or near 20-year highs, while the simple average yield of the group has\n      breached 4.0 percent for the first time since early 2009.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- EXHIBIT 1-->\n    <h3>\n      The forest of global 30-year sovereign bond yields shows a rising trend\n      with no signs of slowing\n    <\/h3>\n    <h4>30Y bond yields of Canada, U.S., UK, Germany, Japan, and France<\/h4>\n    <div class=\"row mb-4\">\n      <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\"\n          src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/global\/bond-markets-seeing-forest-en-chart-1.png\"\n          alt=\"30Y bond yields of Canada, U.S., UK, Germany, Japan, and France\"\n          class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\"\n          aria-describedby=\"ex1desc\"\n        \/>\n        <ul class=\"rbc-legend\">\n          <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">\n            <div class=\"rbc-legend-line c-dark-blue-tint-1\"><\/div>\n            Average of 30-year global sovereign bond yields\n          <\/li>\n        <\/ul>\n        <p class=\"disclaimer\">Source &#8211; RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg<\/p>\n        <p class=\"sr-only\" id=\"ex1desc\">\n          The chart shows key 10-year government bond yields from major regions\n          against the simple average of the group on a rolling one-year basis.\n          That average now stands at 4.2%, up from just 0.8% in 2021.\n        <\/p>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n    <p>\n      Oil prices and central bank rate hike fears are dominating the narrative\n      at the moment, but we think markets are pricing a bigger confluence of\n      factors as driving these trends, and these factors largely continue to\n      point in the same direction\u2014higher yields still.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>Everything costs more, including money<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      So, as we take stock of the first half of 2026, and what we might expect\n      for the rest of the year, we can\u2019t help but feel the desire to take an\n      even bigger step back.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      The technology hyperscalers are issuing massive amounts of debt and equity\n      to raise funds for the ongoing AI buildout. Governments, not to state the\n      obvious, continue to issue massive amounts of debt to fund ongoing\n      deficits, and defence costs for certain regions are only likely to\n      compound those deficits. The demand for capital amid a global economic\n      backdrop that remains steady is increasingly overwhelming the supply of\n      capital, as savings rates decline and aging populations pivot from saving\n      money to spending it.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Where might it end? We would concede that we don\u2019t have a high-conviction\n      view on that front. We had anticipated a return to pre-global financial\n      crisis levels\u2014which appears to be where we are now. A return to pre-2000\n      yield levels of five percent to six percent appears increasingly likely as\n      the tech boom of today seems at least comparable to the tech boom of the\n      1990s, propelling near-term economic growth and inflationary pressures\n      higher.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>Central banks ready a response<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      For all the hyperfocus of late on central banks and the potential for rate\n      hikes, we think any adjustments will be both modest in nature and little\n      more than necessary recalibrations to economic realities on the ground.\n      Single-mandate banks such as the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank\n      of England (BoE), which target only price stability, will need to act\n      sooner rather than later, while others have more time to gauge the impact\n      on economic growth, labour markets, and inflation in their totality.\n    <\/p>\n    <h3>Federal Reserve and Treasury yields<\/h3>\n    <ul class=\"list-spaced\">\n      <li>\n        Our base case is that the Fed keeps rates on hold through 2026 and 2027,\n        but with a bias toward rate hikes. Though markets are pricing a 100\n        percent chance of a rate hike this year, we would highlight that they\n        are giving the Fed a longer runway for potential action than other\n        central banks, as market-implied prospects don\u2019t exceed the key level of\n        80 percent until the Fed\u2019s December meeting.\n      <\/li>\n      <li>\n        With respect to the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield, on balance we\n        expect it to hold at current levels around 4.50 percent, but with an\n        upward bias. Importantly, we do see scope for it to test key technical\n        levels of this cycle: 4.80 percent in 2025 and 5.0 percent from 2023.\n      <\/li>\n    <\/ul>\n    <h3>European Central Bank and German Bund yields<\/h3>\n    <ul class=\"list-spaced\">\n      <li>\n        The ECB was the first G7 central bank to raise rates this year at its\n        June 11 meeting, and we see two more 25 basis point rate hikes in the\n        pipeline this year before the ECB likely holds at a policy rate of 2.75\n        percent into 2027.\n      <\/li>\n      <li>\n        The German Bund yield broke above 3.0 percent following the onset of the\n        Middle East conflict and has largely held that level since. Our forecast\n        has it rising modestly toward 3.25 percent this year, and to 3.40\n        percent in 2027.\n      <\/li>\n    <\/ul>\n    <h3>Bank of England &amp; Gilt yields<\/h3>\n    <ul class=\"list-spaced\">\n      <li>\n        After the ECB, we think the BoE will likely be the next to act with a\n        singular rate hike at its September meeting to 4.0 percent before\n        pausing through 2027.\n      <\/li>\n      <li>\n        Despite a modest BoE rate outlook, the 10-year Gilt yield has been\n        highly volatile this year, trading as low as 4.2 percent and as high as\n        5.2 percent. For now, we see it steadying around 5.0 percent through\n        year-end.\n      <\/li>\n    <\/ul>\n    <h3>Bank of Canada and Government of Canada yields<\/h3>\n    <ul class=\"list-spaced\">\n      <li>\n        The Bank of Canada (BoC) is stuck between weak economic growth and\n        rising price pressures. But like the Fed, we think the BoC will remain\n        on hold this year, with potential hikes in early 2027.\n      <\/li>\n      <li>\n        The benchmark 10-year Government of Canada yield has averaged 3.4\n        percent over the past year, is currently trading around 3.5 percent, and\n        we see it only rising toward 3.6 percent by year-end.\n      <\/li>\n    <\/ul>\n    <!-- EXHIBIT 2-->\n    <h3>Current RBC central bank rate projections<\/h3>\n    <div class=\"row mb-4\">\n      <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\"\n          src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/global\/bond-markets-seeing-forest-en-chart-2.png\"\n          alt=\"Current RBC central bank rate projections\"\n          class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\"\n          aria-describedby=\"ex2desc\"\n        \/>\n        <p class=\"disclaimer\">\n          Source &#8211; RBC Wealth Management, RBC Capital Markets\n        <\/p>\n        <p class=\"sr-only\" id=\"ex2desc\">\n          The chart shows the current policy rates and future quarterly\n          projections through 2027 for the Bank of England, U.S. Federal\n          Reserve, Bank of Canada, and European Central Bank. The United Kingdom\n          and the U.S. policy rates are at 3.75%, while Europe and Canada are at\n          2.25%. The UK is projected to raise its rate to 4.00% by the end of\n          2027, and the U.S. is projected to keep its rate steady. Canada is\n          projected to raise to 3.25%. Europe is projected to raise to 2.75%.\n        <\/p>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n    <!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>Chopping wood<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      While bond markets focus on the forest of interest rate dynamics,\n      individual bond investors need to know which trees to chop down for yield.\n      Despite rising yields, and to what are certainly historically attractive\n      levels, we still expect a somewhat challenging landscape for bond\n      investors. Given that we see little scope for sovereign bond yields to\n      move materially lower absent economic downturns, investors should simply\n      aim to maximize income, as bond price appreciation on top of coupons could\n      remain elusive.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Global corporate bonds present just 0.76 percent of incremental yield over\n      their government bond peers for potential credit and default risks. While\n      not quite as low as the lowest lows of 2005 (+0.55 percent), the margin\n      for error is clearly miniscule.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- EXHIBIT 3-->\n    <h3>\n      Global corporate bonds offer plenty of yield, but little excess yield for\n      potential credit risks\n    <\/h3>\n    <div class=\"row mb-4\">\n      <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\"\n          src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/global\/bond-markets-seeing-forest-en-chart-3.png\"\n          alt=\"Global corporate bonds offer plenty of yield, but little excess yield for potential credit risks\"\n          class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\"\n          aria-describedby=\"ex3desc\"\n        \/>\n        <ul class=\"rbc-legend\">\n          <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">\n            <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar c-grey-tint-2\"><\/div>\n            U.S. recessions\n          <\/li>\n          <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">\n            <div class=\"rbc-legend-line c-warm-yellow\"><\/div>\n            Index credit spread\n          <\/li>\n          <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">\n            <div class=\"rbc-legend-line c-dark-blue-tint-1\"><\/div>\n            Index yield\n          <\/li>\n        <\/ul>\n        <p class=\"disclaimer\">\n          Source &#8211; RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg Global Aggregate Corporate\n          Bond Index\n        <\/p>\n        <p class=\"sr-only\" id=\"ex3desc\">\n          The chart shows the average yield of the Bloomberg Global Aggregate\n          Corporate Bond Index relative to the average credit spread, or\n          incremental yield over comparable government bond yields, for implied\n          corporate credit risks. Both the index credit spread and the index\n          yield rose significantly during the 2008 financial crisis and again\n          during the 2020 U.S. recession. The index yield rose sharply in 2021\n          and remains high relative to the credit spread, at 4.80% vs. roughly\n          +0.76%.\n        <\/p>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n    <p>\n      Therefore, we hold a cautious outlook on credit, but absent a recession\n      the asset class should perform reasonably well, and at the end of the day,\n      extra yield is extra yield. There\u2019s also the not-so-tongue-in-cheek idea\n      that corporate balance sheets might look healthier than government balance\n      sheets.\n    <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Geopolitical events and oil prices have upended global bond markets and central bank policy expectations this year, but we see it as just the latest tree in a forest of reasons that has steadily driven bond yields higher.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":33173,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2026-06-15T18:15:39","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[73],"tags":[1049,1050,1051,1052,1053],"rbcwm_content_owner":[607],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[74],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-33172","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-bond-investing","tag-bond-markets","tag-global-bond-markets","tag-investing-2","tag-oil-prices-2","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"Geopolitical events and oil prices have upended global bond markets and central bank policy expectations this year, but we see it as just the latest tree in a forest of reasons that has steadily driven bond yields higher.","rbcwm_post_author":[1342],"rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":"","disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[11937],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.5 (Yoast SEO v27.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Bond markets seeing the forest for the trees<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Geopolitical events and oil 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