{"id":33312,"date":"2026-06-18T12:07:32","date_gmt":"2026-06-18T16:07:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-ca\/?p=33312"},"modified":"2026-06-18T12:07:33","modified_gmt":"2026-06-18T16:07:33","slug":"global-insight-2026-midyear-outlook-asia-pacific","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-ca\/insights\/global-insight-2026-midyear-outlook-asia-pacific","title":{"rendered":"Global Insight 2026 Midyear Outlook: Asia-Pacific"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>By Jasmine Duan; Nicholas Gwee, CFA; Shawn Sim; Belmen Woo<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2>Asia-Pacific equities<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      China\u2019s economy continues to show bifurcated growth, with high-tech and\n      AI-related manufacturing driving strong export growth while domestic\n      demand remains soft. Despite potential near-term economic headwinds from\n      the Middle East conflict, we don\u2019t see urgency for the government to\n      launch new domestic support policies, as the economy is handling the\n      crisis relatively well.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      The property market shows tentative signs of improvement, with prices\n      rising in some larger Tier 1 cities. However, we think it is too early to\n      declare this a stabilization of the overall property market, as housing\n      inventory levels in many lower-tier cities remain elevated. Excess supply\n      relative to demand will likely keep overall housing prices under pressure,\n      deterring potential buyers from entering the market.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      The AI narrative will likely be a key theme driving China\u2019s equity market\n      performance in the second half of the year. China\u2019s tech champions possess\n      competitive advantages in cost, scale and supply chain integration, and\n      their valuation appears undemanding relative to global peers.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      We prefer companies in AI, humanoid robotics and lithium batteries supply\n      chains. We think these companies are capitalizing on surging global demand\n      for AI-enabling goods.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Japan\u2019s equity markets have rallied strongly in 2026, with the Nikkei 225\n      surging 11.9 percent in May to break above 66,000, driven by AI enthusiasm.\n      Importantly, valuations still look attractive despite all-time high index\n      levels, as robust earnings growth from semiconductors and electronics\n      manufacturers supports the rally. The TOPIX\u2019s more modest gains recently\n      reflect the broader market\u2019s diversification\u2014above-average year-to-date\n      returns thus far, but not as strong as the more AI-concentrated Nikkei\n      225.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Japan has emerged as Asia\u2019s preferred equity destination, attracting $73.6\n      billion in year-to-date inflows through May, as investors seek a\n      diversified alternative to crowded AI trades from the likes of South Korea\n      and Taiwan. This capital rotation is supported by genuine structural\n      reforms in Japan\u2014enhanced corporate governance, rising shareholder\n      returns and the government\u2019s fiscal credibility. The nascent\n      \u201cSanaenomics\u201d framework, encompassing AI advancement and defence sector\n      liberalization and expansion, signals a policy shift toward long-term\n      growth.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      While near-term volatility risks\u2014yen fluctuations, conservative earnings\n      guidance and external geopolitical concerns\u2014exist, we think these\n      represent tactical headwinds rather than structural challenges. Our local\n      research correspondent upgraded their 2026 price targets (Nikkei 70,000)\n      to reflect confidence in the uptrend. The confluence of sustainable\n      inflation, corporate reform momentum and domestic demand support provides\n      a solid foundation for continued Japanese equity appreciation, with\n      pullbacks presenting buying opportunities for long-term investors, in our\n      opinion.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>Asia-Pacific fixed income<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      Asia fixed income enters H2 2026 with credit spreads materially tighter\n      from March levels. First-half returns were supported by interest income,\n      resilient issuer fundamentals and limited net supply, while government\n      fiscal support across the region also helped cushion broader macro\n      volatility linked to the U.S.-Iran conflict. The outlook remains exposed\n      to geopolitical risks, supply-chain disruption, energy-price volatility\n      and the impact from higher U.S. yields. Asian credit spreads\u2014the premium\n      investors demand over U.S. yields\u2014are tighter than they have been in many\n      years, leaving little room for negative surprises. We expect returns to\n      become more issuer-specific from here, with dispersion likely to rise and\n      performance increasingly driven by credits with durable balance sheets,\n      and clear policy support.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      In China, policy direction should remain supportive but targeted. The\n      recent messaging from the National Development and Reform Commission\n      (NDRC), China\u2019s powerful central planning agency, has been more tactical,\n      emphasizing the need for a faster policy rollout to sustain growth\n      momentum. Fiscal support, local government special bond issuance, urban\n      renewal, and measures to improve residency-linked public services should\n      help underpin domestic demand, in our opinion. Anti-involution\n      initiatives, government measures to reduce excess industrial capacity, may\n      also support margins in selected industrial and technology sectors. In the\n      property sector, sales of existing homes have improved in Tier 1 cities\n      (the largest metropolitan areas), but the rebound has yet to translate\n      into broad-based recovery.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Overall, we expect China credit to favour selectivity, with better\n      risk-reward in higher-quality State-owned enterprises, financials and\n      selected industrials, while weaker private-sector issuers warrant caution.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Japanese government bond (JGB) yields have risen sharply this year,\n      extending last year\u2019s move to multi-year highs. Although domestic\n      institutions were net sellers last year, a cautious stance that now\n      appears justified, we think higher yields are making JGBs attractive\n      again, prompting a reallocation away from foreign bonds and back towards\n      domestic fixed income. Foreign investors are also buying longer-dated\n      JGBs, supported by the currency-hedged yield pickup over U.S. treasuries.\n      While fiscal concerns remain, falling net debt and a modest primary\n      government balance suggest to us that yields could remain anchored with\n      JGBs increasingly looking attractive at current levels.\n    <\/p>\n  <p>\nOverall, we think Asia fixed income should continue to offer steady income, but the easy gains from tighter spreads may be behind us.\n<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>China\u2019s export strength masks soft demand; Japanese equities attract investor rotation. Asian credit spreads are tight, so a selective approach is required.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":33313,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2026-06-15T19:26:54","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[73],"tags":[1071,1072,1073,1074,1075,1076,1077,1078],"rbcwm_content_owner":[607],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[74],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-33312","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-asia-equities","tag-asia-fixed-income","tag-asia-pacific-equities-2","tag-asia-pacific-fixed-income-2","tag-china-economy","tag-chinese-equities-2","tag-global-insight-2026-midyear-outlook-2","tag-japanese-equities-2","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"China\u2019s export strength masks soft demand; Japanese equities attract investor rotation. Asian credit spreads are tight, so a selective approach is required.","rbcwm_post_author":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":"","disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[11937],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.5 (Yoast SEO v27.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Global Insight 2026 Midyear Outlook: Asia-Pacific<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"China\u2019s export strength masks soft demand; Japanese equities attract investor rotation. 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