{"id":7405,"date":"2023-07-20T19:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-07-21T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-ca\/insights\/are-low-bank-valuations-a-reason-to-buy-the-sector\/"},"modified":"2023-11-01T10:38:41","modified_gmt":"2023-11-01T14:38:41","slug":"are-low-bank-valuations-a-reason-to-buy-the-sector","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-ca\/insights\/are-low-bank-valuations-a-reason-to-buy-the-sector","title":{"rendered":"Are low bank valuations a reason to buy the sector?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>       Banks have historically performed well when interest rates rise. When they       do rise, banks are quick to pass on interest rate increases to borrowers,       but slow to pass them on to depositors. Thus, their net interest margins       tend to increase.     <\/p>     <p>       In fact, in late June, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt met with       bank bosses to discuss how reluctant the banks had been to pass on higher       returns to savers. Britain\u2019s four largest banks were then offering rates       of less than 1.35 percent on easy access accounts, where close to       two-thirds of household deposits are held, at a time the Bank of England       (BoE) had raised the bank rate to 4.5 percent, according to the Treasury       Select Committee.     <\/p>     <p>       With the delay between raising borrowing costs and deposit rates, banks\u2019       profitability can improve, as long as the lending cycle remains benign and       loan loss provisions restrained. This can lead to bank stocks       outperforming.     <\/p>     <p>       However, it has not been the case this year, of course, due to the failure       of three U.S. regional banks, and the collapse of Credit Suisse in Europe       which all rattled the sector. U.S. bank stocks have underperformed the       broader market year to date. European banks have barely outperformed,       while UK banks, widely perceived as having avoided these issues, have held       up better, largely thanks to international banks performing well as banks       catering solely to the domestic market struggled.     <\/p>     <h3>       Performance of local bank indexes relative to their broad domestic markets     <\/h3>     <div class=\"row mb-4 migrated\">       <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">         <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5\/2023\/07\/low-bank-valuations-en-chart-1.png\" alt=\"Performance of local bank indexes relative to their broad domestic markets\" class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\" \/>         <p           class=\"sr-only\"           id=\"chart1desc\"         >           The chart shows the performance of four regional Bank indexes relative           to their broad domestic market, all rebased to 100 for ease of           comparison. They all performed very poorly in March after the U.S.           regional banking crisis erupted. U.S. and Canadian banks haven\u2019t           clawed back all the lost relative performance, though in the case of           the U.S., it is partly because the S&#038;P 500 Tech sector has performed           so well, lifting the overall market. European banks sold off due to           the Credit Suisse collapse, recovered, and have now performed slightly           better than the broad European market. UK banks, seen as isolated from           the banking crisis issue, performed better and outperformed the FTSE           All-Share Index.         <\/p>          <ul class=\"rbc-legend\">           <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">             <div class=\"rbc-legend-line c-apple\"><\/div>             FTSE All-Share Banks Index vs FTSE All-Share           <\/li>           <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">             <div class=\"rbc-legend-line c-tundra\"><\/div>             Euro STOXX Banks (Price) Index vs Euro STOXX           <\/li>           <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">             <div class=\"rbc-legend-line c-sun\"><\/div>             S&amp;P\/TSX Composite Banks Industry Group Index vs S&amp;P\/TSX           <\/li>           <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">             <div class=\"rbc-legend-line c-dark-blue-tint-1\"><\/div>             S&amp;P&nbsp;500 Banks Total Return Index vs S&amp;P&nbsp;500           <\/li>         <\/ul>          <p class=\"disclaimer\">           Source &#8211; RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; data through 7\/17\/23         <\/p>       <\/div>     <\/div>      <h2>U.S. status update<\/h2>     <p>       The ongoing U.S. earnings season is providing a useful temperature check       for the sector. Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets, LLC\u2019s head of U.S.       bank equity strategy, expects a subdued earnings season overall. He       cautions that due to the regional bank crisis, the traditional expansion       in net interest margin at this point in the cycle may not have       materialized as banks had to pass on interest rate increases to depositors       more swiftly than usual to avoid deposit flight. While the largest banks       have mostly avoided this squeeze, the jury is still out on the smaller and       regional competitors.     <\/p>     <p>       Cassidy expects credit quality to remain strong for now, with the       exception of the commercial real estate sector. But with credit losses       still at unsustainably low levels, he anticipates loan loss provisions to       start to increase from Q2 2023 compared to prior periods as banks start to       build up their loan loss reserves. Most banks still factor in a mild       recession in their outlooks.     <\/p>     <p>       As for the strength of the banking sector\u2019s capital base, the results of       the Dodd-Frank Act Stress Test show that the capital positions of the       largest U.S. banks would remain strong even in a severely stressed       scenario. This enables most of the large banks to afford compelling       dividend payouts.     <\/p>     <p>       Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets, LLC\u2019s head of U.S. equity strategy,       recently upgraded Financials to Overweight from Market Weight. Valuations       are not demanding, in her view, with the top 20 bank stocks trading at       1.0x book value, on average, and 8.2x 2023 estimated EPS. She also thinks       the sector can serve a cyclical function in portfolios as it tends to       outperform when ISM manufacturing data is rising. If confidence in a 2024       economic recovery gathers steam, she believes that banks could benefit.     <\/p>     <p>       The risk of adding banks to portfolios now is that if a recession       materializes, as the reliable leading indicators we follow       <a         href=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/documents\/insights\/global-insight-recession-scorecard-june-2023-en.pdf\"         title=\"U.S. Recession Scorecard: On the path to a U.S. recession\"target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"         class=\"file-pdf\"         >suggest <\/a>, the sector would struggle to outperform the broader market. The recent       pro-cyclical stock market run suggests a benign economic environment is       being discounted, leaving banks vulnerable, in our view, if a darker       economic scenario prevails.     <\/p>     <h2>Meanwhile, north of the border<\/h2>     <p>       Canadian banks\u2019 valuations, at 1.3x book value, are nearing the stressed       levels reached during the global financial crisis of 2008. This reflects       slowing loan growth, higher deposit costs and loan losses, while the       regulatory environment is increasingly unfriendly. A potential peak in       loan losses, as well as opportunities linked to immigration could unlock       the sector\u2019s low valuations, though we think the state of the economy       remains the key short-term concern.     <\/p>     <h2>Nuances across the pond<\/h2>     <p>       In the UK, the BoE also performed a stress test recently to assess the       resilience of the sector\u2019s capital position. The results indicated that       the major UK banks would be resilient to an economic scenario more severe       than the 2007\u201308 global financial crisis, an outcome substantially worse       than that currently expected by the BoE and consensus.     <\/p>     <p>       Therefore, we do not foresee changes to forthcoming share buybacks or       dividends for the group. UK bank valuations are not demanding with the       sector trading at 6x this year\u2019s earnings and 0.7x price to book value.       Nevertheless, we believe renewed positive economic momentum is likely       needed for UK bank shares to re-rate materially higher.     <\/p>     <p>       Unlike their U.S. counterparts, European banks have continued to enjoy       earnings upgrades throughout this year, reflecting the benefit of higher       interest rates on their net interest margin. European bank valuations are       similar to those in the UK, but we would remain selective and focus on       banks of the highest quality given the current subdued economic       environment.     <\/p>     <h2>Timing is key<\/h2>     <p>       We expect the ongoing Q2 corporate earnings season to give clues as to how       the banking sector is navigating the current tricky economic environment.       The sector in the U.S., Canada, UK, and Europe is well capitalized, and       valuations are undemanding. In the short term, however, given the recent       rally in the sector, which was particularly strong in the U.S. and Europe,       we believe bank stocks would be vulnerable should a deep economic slowdown       materialize and loan losses increase sharply.     <\/p>     <p class=\"rbc-caption-text-small mt-2\">       With contributions from Thomas McGarrity, CFA and Sunny Singh, CFA.     <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As valuations have become compelling, is now the time for investors to add bank exposure to portfolios?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":7408,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2023-07-20 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