{"id":31967,"date":"2026-03-18T14:55:33","date_gmt":"2026-03-18T18:55:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-ca\/?post_type=rbcwm_wmr&p=31967"},"modified":"2026-03-18T14:55:34","modified_gmt":"2026-03-18T18:55:34","slug":"equities-and-the-economy","status":"publish","type":"rbcwm_wmr","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-ca\/wmr\/equities-and-the-economy","title":{"rendered":"Equities and the economy"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Jim Allworth, Investment Strategist \u2013 RBC Dominion Securities<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

From late October to the start of the Iran conflict, most major developed equity markets\u2014in Europe, Japan, the UK, and Canada\u2014forged steep upward paths to a succession of new all-time highs. The S&P 500 by contrast barely inched higher over that interval. However, since Iran entered the picture the U.S. and Canadian markets have lost comparatively little ground, while economies highly dependent on imported oil and gas\u2014Japan, much of Asia, and Europe\u2014have endured more substantial pull backs. \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The future course of all markets depends to some considerable extent on how the U.S. involvement in Iran plays out. A cease-fire and resumption of unhindered oil traffic could shift investor focus back to the outlook for the domestic economies in the U.S., Canada, and other developed nations. However, if the current bombing campaign threatens to turn into a major, multiyear commitment of American forces to an Iranian conflict, we think it could produce an unsettling financial market outcome, potentially akin to the First Gulf War\u2019s extended stock market pull-back, where the crude oil market would remain meaningfully affected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Equities could benefit from the U.S. avoiding a recession<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While we see a real possibility that the U.S. equity market could lurch into a more unsettling correction, and carry other global equity markets with it, we don\u2019t expect the U.S. economy to be the cause. We believe the positive impulse of the 175 basis points (bps) of U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts over the past 17 months will go on providing useful stimulus for some months to come, as will the estimated USD$50 billion of additional tax refunds arriving this spring. Meanwhile, large and small businesses plan to hire more, pay more, and boost capital spending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For now, policy uncertainty is receding as the tariff picture looks to be largely fixed as post-Supreme Court ruling levels out\u2014perhaps beyond the midterm elections. Consensus U.S. GDP growth estimates are now sitting comfortably in the 2 percent to 3 percent range, a pace of economic growth which has typically delivered low double-digit S&P 500 returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rising gasoline prices, especially if they don\u2019t dissipate quickly, pose the biggest threat to this constructive GDP outlook. The bottom half of U.S. households, already contending with elevated food prices and utility bills, had been having difficulty making ends meet before Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. midterm elections<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Historically, midterm election years have not always been the strongest period for U.S. stock market performance. In the 23 midterm years since 1934, markets have experienced a noteworthy downturn with an average peak-to-trough drop of over 20 percent, typically followed by a robust rebound that went on to set new highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On balance, we would be more concerned about the prospect for a market downturn in the coming months if the U.S. economy looked to be heading toward recession. However, easing monetary conditions, steady employment prospects, the continuing flow of largesse from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), and solid capital expenditure plans suggest that any profound economic weakness is unlikely to materialize over the coming year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Canadian economy is faced with many of the same challenges as the U.S. and then some\u2014trade and tariff uncertainty, soaring gasoline prices, falling property prices and the continuing burden of mortgage renewals at rates that squeeze household budgets. On the other hand, interest rates are much lower in Canada because our fiscal deficit is a fraction of being run across the line and our balance sheet is arguably more sustainably positioned. This leaves government in a position to provide long-term fiscal and policy support for major project developments\u2014some of which could see shovels in the ground in 2027.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fixed income<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

We expect both the Fed and the Bank of Canada (BoC) will \u201clook through\u201d the inflation induced by the disruption of crude shipments for at least a few months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The bond market has a mind of its own, but both government and corporate yields have risen only modestly in response to the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East. That said, we expect bond yields will move higher and yield differentials between lower quality and high grade debt widen further for as long as tanker traffic out of the Persian Gulf remains restricted. If that were to change, those expected higher yields could present an opportunity to lengthen term in portfolios.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Invested but watchful<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

We currently expect the stock markets will set more new highs later this year. However, there is a growing possibility that the Iran conflict will demand a longer U.S. military commitment, together with the unfortunate history of stock market corrections typically occurring during U.S. mid-term election years suggest that some more extended market pull-back may turn out to be part of the roadmap to eventual higher ground for the major indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For our part, we think portfolios should remain committed to equities up to but not beyond an investor\u2019s long-term targeted exposure.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Global equity markets face midterm election volatility and Iran conflict uncertainty, yet recession avoidance supports an optimistic long-term outlook.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":32016,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2026-03-11T13:57:34","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[264],"rbcwm_content_owner":[],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[94],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-31967","rbcwm_wmr","type-rbcwm_wmr","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-trends","rbcwm_topic-your-wealth"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"Global equity markets face midterm election volatility and Iran conflict uncertainty, yet recession avoidance supports an optimistic long-term outlook.","rbcwm_post_author":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":"","perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":"","disclaimer_footnote":"This information is not investment advice and should be used only in conjunction with a discussion with your RBC Dominion Securities Inc. Investment Advisor.\u00a0This will ensure that your own circumstances have been considered properly and that any action is taken based upon the latest available information. The strategies and advice in this report are provided for general guidance.\u00a0Readers should consult their own Investment Advisor when planning to implement a strategy. Interest rates, market conditions, special offers, tax rulings, and other investment factors are subject to change. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable at the time obtained but neither RBC Dominion Securities Inc. nor its employees, agents, or information suppliers can guarantee its accuracy or completeness.\u00a0This report is not and under no circumstances is to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities.\u00a0This report is furnished on the basis and understanding that neither RBC Dominion Securities Inc. nor its employees, agents, or information suppliers is to be under any responsibility or liability whatsoever in respect thereof.\u00a0\u00a0The inventories of RBC Dominion Securities Inc. may from time to time include securities mentioned herein.\r\n\r\nRBC Dominion Securities Inc.* and Royal Bank of Canada are separate corporate entities which are affiliated. *Member-Canadian Investor Protection Fund. RBC Dominion Securities Inc. is a member company of RBC Wealth Management, a business segment of Royal Bank of Canada. \u00ae \/ \u2122 Trademark(s) of Royal Bank of Canada.\u00a0Used under licence.\u00a0\u00a9 RBC Dominion Securities Inc. 2026.<\/em> All rights reserved."},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":"","rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":true,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2","rbcwm_toc_sub_selector":false},"yoast_head":"\nEquities and the economy<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, nofollow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Equities and the economy\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Global equity markets face midterm election volatility and Iran conflict uncertainty, yet recession avoidance supports 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