The country has seen a new driver of exports, and it has not been affected by the Middle East conflict to the extent of many others. This article assesses China’s current economic performance and the equity market outlook for the remainder of 2026.
June 4, 2026
By Jasmine Duan
China delivered solid economic growth in the first quarter, and investors anticipated a broadening earnings recovery across different sectors. However, the Middle East conflict and the global AI spending boom have altered the economic trajectory that many anticipated at the start of the year.
It is widely assessed among energy experts in China that the country is relatively well-insulated from direct energy price shocks due to its “energy security” policy. The country diversifies its crude oil sources across different suppliers, with no single supplier accounting for more than 20 percent of China’s total oil imports.
The country’s energy consumption is also more diversified and less expensive than most countries, with coal accounting for nearly half and the remainder distributed across fossil fuels and renewables, including hydroelectric, solar, wind and nuclear power.
Additionally, China strategically accumulates oil reserves during periods of low prices. China’s total oil reserves are estimated by analysts at 1.3–1.4 billion barrels, but we and other experts believe the actual number could be 30–40 percent higher, which is able to cover more than one year of oil consumption at the current drawdown rate. This gives policymakers flexibility to respond to prolonged energy disruptions.
China’s diversified energy mix and inventory buffers have delayed the impact of the Strait of Hormuz disruption. However, the impact of the Middle East conflict became visible in some April economic data. Industrial activities have been affected the most, with production of refined petroleum products and chemicals showing the largest sequential monthly declines. We think China’s producer inflation is likely to continue to rise in the coming months, albeit from a lower base than many countries. Companies will be exposed to both rising input costs and slowing demand as the conflict drags on.
AI-related exports have emerged as a new export driver this year. China’s total exports climbed to record levels in April, to around US$350 billion monthly in seasonally adjusted terms, a 14 percent year-over-year increase. Roughly half of this expansion stems from goods supporting global AI infrastructure development.
However, China occupies a downstream position in the AI value chain, in contrast to South Korea and Taiwan, which produce cutting-edge semiconductors. This positioning requires China to import substantial quantities of AI-related components for domestic use or final assembly. Consequently, China’s imports surged alongside exports. This simultaneous rise in both flows means the AI boom has generated minimal net impact on China’s trade surplus.
This differs sharply with other recent export stories, such as solar panel and electric vehicle, where most of the supply chain operates within China’s borders.
We think there are two ways to consider the implications:
Overall, we think these two factors, along with whether AI spending sustains its momentum and the duration of the Middle East conflict, will largely affect China’s trade outlook for the remainder of the year.
Source – RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; monthly data through 4/30/26
The line chart tracks the value in U.S. dollars of China’s integrated circuit exports and imports on a monthly basis from January 2022 through April 2026. For most of the period, the value of integrated circuit exports fluctuated between around US$10 billion and US$20 billion; in March 2026 exports began to sharply increase and then surged 100% year over year to US$31 billion in April 2026. The value of imports fluctuated between around US$25 billion and US$40 billion for most of the period; in March 2026 imports began to sharply rise and climbed 55% year over year to US$54 billion in April 2026.
U.S. President Donald Trump concluded his Beijing visit on May 15. Despite initial low expectations, some investors still expressed disappointment about the outcome due to the absence of a joint statement and comprehensive trade agreement. The two sides’ readouts also revealed divergent priorities.
China’s statement emphasised building a stable and sustainable trade relationship, while the U.S. focused on increasing Chinese purchases of American goods, reopening the Strait of Hormuz and denuclearising North Korea.
Nevertheless, we think the meeting produced tangible progress. The two countries agreed to establish a U.S.-China Board of Trade and a U.S.-China Board of Investment to manage daily bilateral trade and investment matters. These bodies will aim to foster longer-term solutions for more predictable and stable trade and investment relationships.
While fundamental differences and structural tensions persist, the summit’s outcomes appear pragmatic, in our view. Notably, Trump’s invitation for President Xi Jinping to visit the U.S. in the autumn suggests to us a reduced near-term risk of further escalation before that visit.
The Middle East crisis has introduced uncertainties for China’s economic recovery and postponed the anticipated broader corporate earnings recovery.
At the index level, Chinese equities have demonstrated resilience since the conflict began. However, year-to-date performance remains modest relative to major peers, particularly regional peers such as South Korea and Taiwan.
We think the performance partly reflects index composition. The Consumer Discretionary and Financials sectors represent 26 percent and 19 percent of MSCI China Index weight, respectively, while technology hardware companies are underrepresented compared to other major markets, limiting the index’s capture of Information Technology sector strength.
Nevertheless, given surging global demand for AI-enabling products and the accelerating push toward electrification, we think China’s technology sector, including companies in the AI, humanoid robotics and lithium batteries supply chains, are well-positioned to capitalise on the trend and appear undervalued.
We recommend maintaining a Market Weight position in Chinese equities within global portfolios. This allocation provides resilience should the Middle East conflict escalate, while positioning investors to capture upside potential from the AI growth story.
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