{"id":18027,"date":"2025-07-10T16:45:46","date_gmt":"2025-07-10T20:45:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/?p=18027"},"modified":"2025-07-10T16:45:47","modified_gmt":"2025-07-10T20:45:47","slug":"one-year-in-the-labour-partys-report-card","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/insights\/one-year-in-the-labour-partys-report-card","title":{"rendered":"One year in: The Labour Party\u2019s report card"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Slow going<\/h2>\n

\n The Labour government, now in power for a year, has likely discovered that\n managing an economy is more difficult than being in opposition.\n <\/p>\n

\n The UK economy is currently experiencing sluggish growth, with Q1 2025 GDP\n rising just 0.7 percent year over year \u2013 a figure boosted by trade activity brought\n forward to avoid tariffs and a one-off effect unlikely to be repeated.\n <\/p>\n

\n Going forward, real wages growing at a healthy mid-single-digit pace could\n provide a tailwind as consumers appear willing to spend. In addition, a\n 10-year, \u00a3725 billion infrastructure programme may also offer support;\n however, at around 2 percent of GDP per year, it is only a modest increase over\n the previous government\u2019s spending and in our view not a game changer.\n Overall, RBC Capital Markets expects subdued growth of 1.0 percent and 1.1 percent this\n year and next respectively.\n <\/p>\n \n

Labour\u2019s straightjacket<\/h2>\n

\n The government is not positioned to stimulate the economy meaningfully.\n The nation\u2019s fiscal situation is precarious, and Labour has chosen to\n maintain a set of self-imposed fiscal rules similar to those of the\n previous Conservative administration, in an effort to signal fiscal\n responsibility and reassure financial markets.\n <\/p>\n \n

Top and bottom three countries in terms of fiscal health<\/h3>\n

The UK sits firmly near the bottom<\/h4>\n
\n
\n \"Top\n

\n The table presents fiscal health indicators for the three\n highest-ranked and the three lowest-ranked countries in the RBC Global\n Asset Management Fiscal Health Scorecard, ordered from best to worst.\n For the Fiscal Health Index, 1 is best and 5 is worst. For Fiscal\n Deficit, a negative number indicates a surplus.\n <\/p>\n

\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n
Country<\/th>\n RBC GAM Fiscal Health Index<\/th>\n Debt (% of GDP)<\/th>\n Fiscal deficit<\/th>\n Interest Payments (% of GDP)<\/th>\n <\/tr>\n <\/thead>\n
Denmark<\/th>\n 1.4 (strong)<\/td>\n 28 (strong)<\/td>\n -3.8 (strong)<\/td>\n 0.7 (strong)<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n
Ireland<\/th>\n 1.5 (strong)<\/td>\n 41 (strong)<\/td>\n -3.8 (strong)<\/td>\n 0.7 (strong)<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n
Netherlands<\/th>\n 1.6 (fair)<\/td>\n 43 (strong)<\/td>\n 1.4 (fair)<\/td>\n 0.7 (strong)<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n
Other countries omitted.<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n
Brazil<\/th>\n 3.4 (concerning)<\/td>\n 87 (concerning)<\/td>\n 7.1 (very concerning)<\/td>\n 8.2 (very concerning)<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n
United Kingdom<\/th>\n 3.6 (concerning)<\/td>\n 101 (concerning)<\/td>\n 5.5 (concerning)<\/td>\n 3.1 (concerning)<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n
United States<\/th>\n 3.8 (concerning)<\/td>\n 121 (concerning)<\/td>\n 7.7 (very concerning)<\/td>\n 3.9 (concerning)<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <\/tbody>\n <\/table>\n <\/div>\n

Notes:<\/p>\n

\n 1. RBC Global Asset Management Fiscal Health Index (1 = best; 5 =\n worst).\n <\/p>\n

\n 2. A negative fiscal deficit indicates a surplus.\n <\/p>\n

\n This is a simplified excerpt from RBC Global Asset Management\u2019s Fiscal\n Health Scorecard, which analyses the fiscal health of 27 countries\n across nine variables. All indicators are based on 2024 data except\n interest payments (2023).\n <\/p>\n

\n Source – RBC Wealth Management, RBC Global Asset Management,\n International Monetary Fund, Macrobond\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

\n Labour\u2019s attempts to improve the country\u2019s fiscal health and reduce its\n debt \u2013 such as cutting fuel subsidies for the elderly and reducing welfare\n payments \u2013 have proven difficult and unpopular with the party and voters. As\n a result, the government has been compelled to water down key elements of\n its flagship policies.\n <\/p>\n

\n Meanwhile, pressure to boost defence spending has grown, as U.S. security\n support appears to be waning, while borrowing costs have risen due to a\n larger debt burden and higher financing costs.\n <\/p>\n

\n In our view, the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer has three unpalatable\n options:\n <\/p>\n

    \n
  1. \n loosen the fiscal rules and risk a rise in bond yields as markets grow\n uneasy;\n <\/li>\n
  2. \n cut public spending further and risk triggering internal party rebellion\n and voter backlash; or\n <\/li>\n
  3. raise taxes and break manifesto commitments.<\/li>\n <\/ol>\n

    \n Although the UK\u2019s tax burden is already at its highest since the 1970s, we\n think further tax increases are likely to be announced in the autumn\n budget.\n <\/p>\n \n

    Trade relationship resets<\/h2>\n

    \n While fiscally constrained, the government has taken steps to mitigate\n trade setbacks with the U.S. and rebuild the relationship with its major\n trading partner, the EU.\n <\/p>\n

    \n The U.S.-UK trade deal came into effect on June 30 \u2013 the only formal\n agreement implemented during the Trump administration\u2019s 90-day tariff\n pause. Unfortunately, it offers limited relief to the UK, which retains\n the 10 percent blanket tariff, matching the reciprocal U.S. rate. The UK also\n continues to face a 25 percent tariff on steel, despite ongoing efforts to have\n this reduced. Nevertheless, certain sectors are better off: tariffs on UK\n car exports to the U.S. have been reduced to 10 percent from 25 percent and the\n aerospace sector benefits from zero tariffs.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Meanwhile, Labour has reset the country\u2019s relationship with the EU,\n rolling back some of the obstacles introduced by Brexit. The new EU-UK\n agreement covers fisheries, energy trading, veterinary standards for\n agriculture, and cooperation on defence and security. It aims at reducing\n some costs of regulatory compliance and border checks, and could provide\n some benefits to these industries. Though further rapprochement with the\n EU is likely in the future, we believe the agreement is unlikely to have a\n marked impact on overall short-term UK growth.\n <\/p>\n \n

    The Bank of England\u2019s own challenge<\/h2>\n

    \n If the government is reluctant to deploy fiscal stimulus, the Bank of\n England (BoE) is equally cautious about loosening monetary policy too\n quickly. Headline inflation has remained stubbornly above the 2 percent target,\n coming in at 3.4 percent year over year in May. As a result, since it started its\n rate cutting in July 2024, the BoE has acted conservatively, reducing\n interest rates only to 4.25 percent from their 5.25 percent peak.\n <\/p>\n

    \n More cuts are likely later this year and next, in our opinion. Business\n hiring intentions have softened and are likely to weaken further, which\n could dampen wage growth and, in turn, ease headline inflation in the\n second half of the year. Markets expect three additional rate cuts over\n the next 12 months, bringing the terminal rate to 3.5 percent, though additional\n cuts are possible if the labour market weakens markedly.\n <\/p>\n \n

    Value opportunities<\/h2>\n

    \n Despite the challenging macro backdrop, we believe there are select\n opportunities in the UK for investors. The FTSE All-Share Index trades at\n 13.2x price to forward earnings and well below its median\n price-to-earnings ratio relative to global developed markets, even\n accounting for sector differences. Some quality UK large-cap stocks trade\n at a valuation discount to foreign competitors and are an attractive\n opportunity for global investors seeking diversification, in our view. We\n also favour attractively valued Financials, given their high level of\n shareholder returns via both dividends and share buybacks.\n <\/p>\n

    \n In fixed income, though fiscal concerns and expectations of stubborn\n inflation have led investors to demand higher yields on long-dated bonds,\n we believe that 10-year Gilt yields above year-to-date averages of 4.6 percent\n are compelling. We are also biased towards short-dated Gilts.\n <\/p>\n

    \n As for corporate bonds, we believe that spreads generally are inadequately\n compensating for credit risk elsewhere, especially in high-yield bonds.\n However, we see value in short duration senior-ranked bank bonds, as well\n as Consumer Staples and Communications sectors.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    For the Labour Party, restoring sustainable growth was always going to be challenging. A year on and the UK economy remains fragile, yet some investors may find the UK still offers some rich pickings.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":18028,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2025-07-10T16:41:35","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[80],"tags":[706,705],"rbcwm_content_owner":[506],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[81],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-18027","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-labour-party","tag-uk-economy","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"For the Labour Party, restoring sustainable growth was always going to be challenging. 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