{"id":19267,"date":"2026-03-12T20:40:02","date_gmt":"2026-03-12T20:40:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/?p=19267"},"modified":"2026-03-12T20:40:04","modified_gmt":"2026-03-12T20:40:04","slug":"the-federal-reserves-imperfect-toolbox","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/insights\/the-federal-reserves-imperfect-toolbox","title":{"rendered":"The Federal Reserve\u2019s imperfect toolbox"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Atul Bhatia, CFA<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n By moving interest rates, the U.S. central bank can help drive the cost of\n credit, thereby spurring or discouraging investments, and it can push\n asset prices higher by engaging in longer-term bond purchases. These are\n undoubtedly powerful economic tools.\n <\/p>\n

\n But the Fed is not omnipotent. And as we survey the economic landscape,\n most of the key issues we see are, if not immune, certainly highly\n resistant to Fed intervention. The result is that while guessing the\n direction of Fed policy will be critical for certain types of cash-management decisions, in the larger investment context, a few 25 basis\n points moves here or there may well be overshadowed by other policy and\n macroeconomic factors.\n <\/p>\n

\n As we see it, the biggest tasks for U.S. and global policymakers are\n responding to a potential oil supply shock and dealing with the\n implications of AI on workers \u2013 both as economic units and as members of\n society. Neither of these factors, however, is amenable to correction by\n the Fed.\n <\/p>\n \n

Stagflation nation<\/h2>\n

\n Oil price shocks represent a risk of stagflation, a period of above-target\n inflation coupled with slow, or even negative, economic growth. This is\n both theoretically and practically tough for a central bank. Inflation\n calls for higher rates, contractionary environments call for lower rates,\n and policymakers risk exacerbating a negative trend with any move.\n <\/p>\n

\n The real problem, in our view, isn\u2019t that the Fed is forced to pick a side\n between contraction and inflation. The real problem is that the Fed\u2019s\n policy levers are largely useless to deal with either condition.\n <\/p>\n

\n Let\u2019s start with the contractionary effects of an oil supply shock. A\n contraction generally calls for looser policy and easier credit to spur\n investment and hiring.\n <\/p>\n

\n But if energy can\u2019t be had at an economically viable price to produce or\n transport goods, what does it matter if funding costs are a few basis\n points \u2013 or even percentage points \u2013 lower? A logistics firm isn\u2019t going to go\n on a truck-buying spree if high diesel prices make it impossible to run\n the machinery profitably. Even firms that have access to energy supply at\n a reasonable price aren\u2019t immune to an energy shock; there\u2019s no point in\n them building a new factory if their customer base is struggling to pay\n for gas. Rate policy works well to encourage growth when cost of capital\n is the binding constraint on investment, and that\u2019s just not the case\n today, in our view.\n <\/p>\n

\n Dealing with supply-side inflation is equally problematic for the central\n bank. Rate hikes are the usual policy tool used to deal with rising\n prices, and the idea is to restrict credit and growth to bring supply and\n demand into better balance. But when there is a restriction in something\n as fundamental as energy, the amount of contraction required to bring\n balance would be crushing for the economy and the country, in our opinion.\n It would amount to killing the patient to cure a symptom.\n <\/p>\n

\n Rather than offsetting the direct impact of higher oil prices, the main\n argument in favour of hiking rates in a stagflationary environment is\n secondary effects. The idea is that restrictive policy helps ward off the\n dreaded wage-price inflation spiral, where rising prices on consumer goods\n lead to higher wages which in turn set off another round of consumer\n inflation. It was this type of self-reinforcing mechanism that played a\n key role in U.S. inflation in the 1970s. While this is a nice argument in\n theory and has a reasonable historical hook, it doesn\u2019t seem to us to have\n much relevance to modern reality.\n <\/p>\n

\n In the 1970s, roughly one-third of U.S. workers were unionised, and\n cost-of-living adjustments were built into collective bargaining\n agreements. Today, just over 10 percent of workers are unionised, and\n wages linked to inflation are largely a thing of the past.\n <\/p>\n

\n More broadly, the rise of independent contractors and gig workers,\n combined with the threat of AI and the signs of a softening labour market,\n mean workers have little effective negotiating power to turn higher\n consumer prices into higher wages. Even during the post-pandemic labour\n shortages, real median wages in the U.S. only rose US$3.00 per week between\n Q1 2022 and Q1 2024. With labour slack building and the threat of AI\n overhanging the labour force, is it credible to think that the broad core\n of workers is going to be negotiating better deals now?\n <\/p>\n

\n The bottom line, we believe, is that the Fed can make a symbolic move by\n shifting rates half a point lower or higher, but that should be taken for\n what it is: a symbol. The real-world economic impact of that type of\n policy is likely, we believe, to be dwarfed by developments in the Middle\n East.\n <\/p>\n \n

The pAIn trade<\/h2>\n

\n AI has begun displacing knowledge workers and, in our view, will almost\n certainly continue to do so. In economic terms, this is a win. The\n discipline is, after all, about maximising output given scarce resources.\n If AI can achieve the same production while using fewer workers, we think\n an economic boon will have been achieved.\n <\/p>\n

\n Key to achieving that win is the belief that these freed-up workers will\n be deployed elsewhere and create new products. On a macro scale, that\u2019s\n probably true.\n <\/p>\n

\n But for the newly freed-up worker, the picture is less rosy. Many of them\n have spent years or even decades acquiring the education and experience\n that made them \u201cknowledge workers.\u201d Stripped of that value, their\n employment alternatives will likely be fewer and worse. For those who\n remain employed in their original profession, we expect AI to leverage\n their skills and provide an economic benefit. But for the rest,\n uncertainty reigns.\n <\/p>\n

\n When we look at the AI-labour dynamic, it seems fairly obvious to us that\n the forces involved are unlikely to respond to a quarter-point change or\n two in overnight interbank borrowing rates. It\u2019s not like anyone will keep\n a human developer on the payroll at six figures instead of a free AI tool\n just because their payroll costs can be funded at three percent instead of\n 3.5 percent. Instead, we think fiscal and legislative policy together are\n the appropriate tools for addressing the economic and social implications\n of a technology revolution.\n <\/p>\n \n

Wrong tool at the right time<\/h2>\n

\n \u201cDon\u2019t fight the Fed\u201d is an aphorism for a reason. Within its sandbox, the\n institution is incredibly powerful. But when it comes to issues such as\n supply shocks and labour markets upended by innovation, we think the limits\n of the institution\u2019s power become apparent. The Fed will no doubt do what\n it can, but what it can do may fall far short of what is needed.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The U.S. central bank wields a powerful hammer with its ability to move interest rates. Despite its strength, though, we think the central bank is poorly suited to address key concerns arising from high oil prices and the rollout of AI.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":19268,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2026-03-12T15:50:22","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[80],"tags":[380,242,165,182,817,820],"rbcwm_content_owner":[506],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[81],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-19267","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-ai","tag-federal-reserve","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-oil-prices","tag-stagflation","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"The U.S. central bank wields a powerful hammer with its ability to move interest rates. 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