{"id":19343,"date":"2026-04-07T13:19:02","date_gmt":"2026-04-07T12:19:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/?p=19343"},"modified":"2026-04-07T13:19:03","modified_gmt":"2026-04-07T12:19:03","slug":"us-employment-report-us-labour-market-continues-to-weather-shocks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/insights\/us-employment-report-us-labour-market-continues-to-weather-shocks","title":{"rendered":"U.S. employment report: U.S. labour market continues to weather shocks"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Mike Reid, Carrie Freestone and Imri Haggin<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bottom line<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The March employment report surprised to the upside as payrolls added +178k and the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3%. <\/strong>But in the shadow of a weak February (revised down to -133k), the March gain should not be taken at face value. Still, we view the unemployment rate as the better barometer of labour market health and the improvement there shows that the labour market remains on stable footings despite the volatility in payroll growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact, much of the volatility should be expected \u2013 between SCOTUS overturning IEEPA and the escalation in the Middle East conflict driving oil prices higher, different sectors of the economy will need to react in different ways. The surprise came from sectors that have been most impacted by trade disruptions: manufacturing as well as transportation and warehousing both added jobs in March. Those sectors have largely shed jobs since Liberation Day as uncertain trade policies weighed on hiring. The underlying themes held steady in March as healthcare remains the largest contributor to job growth (even when correcting for the nurses\u2019 strike that ended).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Construction hiring rebounded after a particularly cold February, driven largely by nonresidential construction (largely a data centre story). So too did leisure and hospitality and retail sales, both reflective of a U.S. consumer that continues to spend despite the uncertainty ahead. The most important takeaway from this report should be an appreciation for how low the breakeven rate of payroll growth has fallen (i.e., the number of job gains needed to keep the unemployment rate steady). Even though the labour market has averaged only 15k jobs per month since October, the unemployment rate fell from 4.5% to 4.3%. Importantly, this employment report gives the Fed more time to assess incoming inflation data, and we expect they will remain on pause as their dual mandate faces growing tension.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unemployment rate falling despite low job growth<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Q1 hiring lifted the three-month average to 68k \u2013 markedly better than the 12-month trend<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
\"Q1<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Here\u2019s what stood out to us in the report:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. Unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, driven by fewer job losers and fewer re-entrants<\/h2>\n\n\n\n