{"id":19566,"date":"2026-05-07T20:45:08","date_gmt":"2026-05-07T19:45:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/?p=19566"},"modified":"2026-05-07T20:48:57","modified_gmt":"2026-05-07T19:48:57","slug":"midterms-the-market-and-what-matters","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/insights\/midterms-the-market-and-what-matters","title":{"rendered":"Midterms, the market and what matters"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"well b-blue-tint-4 mb-4\">\n      <h2 class=\"h5\">Key points<\/h2>\n      <ul class=\"list-spaced\">\n        <li>\n          The sitting president\u2019s party has almost always lost House seats in\n          midterm elections, and those losses have often been large.\n          Presidential popularity has played a role.\n        <\/li>\n        <li>\n          U.S. equity returns in midterm election years have been the most\n          muted, although gains in the following year have been robust.\n        <\/li>\n        <li>\n          The market has often welcomed political party gridlock in\n          Washington \u2013 but not always, and less so with a Republican president at\n          the helm.\n        <\/li>\n        <li>\n          Election results have not been the main driver of equity prices over\n          time. Corporate innovation, Fed policy and economic and earnings\n          trends have mattered more.\n        <\/li>\n      <\/ul>\n    <\/div>\n\n    <p\n      class=\"h3\"\n      style=\"\n        padding-bottom: 5px;\n        border-bottom: 2px solid #002750;\n      \"\n    >\n      Five factors framing the election\n    <\/p>\n\n    <p class=\"c-slate\">\n      <strong\n        >With all 435 House of Representatives seats and 35 of the 100 Senate\n        seats up for election on Nov. 3, there are some typical and atypical\n        factors that could impact political party control in Washington.<\/strong\n      >\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>A referendum on Trump 2.0<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      Midterm elections are often a referendum on the president\u2019s term, even\n      though the president\u2019s name is nowhere on the ballot. And they are usually\n      tough sledding for the president\u2019s party when it comes to House races.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Since 1906, the president\u2019s party gained House seats only three times in\n      midterm elections, and the pickups were just single digits. Big losses\n      were far more common, with Republicans and Democrats each shedding 28\n      seats on a median basis.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>The data suggests presidential popularity played a role.<\/p>\n    <p>\n      Since World War Two, the two presidents who had high approval ratings in\n      Gallup polls one month before the midterm election fared best: Democrat\n      Bill Clinton in his second term and Republican George W. Bush in his first\n      term. Their parties added five and eight House members in the 1998 and\n      2002 midterm elections, respectively.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Presidents with approval ratings below 50&nbsp;percent in Gallup polls one\n      month before election day in the post-World War Two era saw their parties\n      stumble, with a median loss of 30 seats (range: 9\u201364 seats); for those\n      with approval ratings above 50 percent, the median loss was only eight\n      seats.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- EXHIBIT 1-->\n    <h3>The president\u2019s party has often suffered big losses<\/h3>\n    <h4>\n      Change in House of Representatives seats held by the president\u2019s party\n    <\/h4>\n    <div class=\"row mb-4\">\n      <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\"\n          src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/global\/midterms-markets-and-what-matters-en-chart-1.png\"\n          alt=\"Change in House of Representatives seats held by the president\u2019s party\"\n          class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\"\n          aria-describedby=\"ex1desc\"\n        \/>\n        <ul class=\"rbc-legend rbc-legend-inline\">\n          <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">\n            <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar c-blue-tint-1\"><\/div>\n            Democratic president\n          <\/li>\n          <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">\n            <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar c-warm-red\"><\/div>\n            Republican president\n          <\/li>\n        <\/ul>\n        <p class=\"disclaimer\">\n          Source &#8211; RBC Wealth Management, U.S. House of Representatives,\n          Brookings Institution, The American Presidency Project at the\n          University of California, Santa Barbara\n        <\/p>\n        <p class=\"sr-only\" id=\"ex1desc\">\n          The bar chart shows the change in the number of seats in the U.S.\n          House of Representatives held by the president\u2019s party in midterm\n          election years from 1906 through 2022. The president\u2019s party gained\n          seats in only three years: in 1934, Republicans gained nine seats; in\n          1998, Democrats gained five seats; in 2002, Republicans gained eight\n          seats. Both Republican and Democratic presidents saw their party lose\n          seats in 15 years. The worst two years were 1922 (Republican loss of\n          77 seats) and 1938 (Democratic loss of 72 seats). In the most recent\n          midterm elections, Democrats lost nine seats in 2022 and Republicans\n          lost 42 seats in 2018.\n        <\/p>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n    <p>\n      This historical pattern is relevant for the upcoming midterm election\n      given President Donald Trump\u2019s approval ratings have been well below 50\n      percent in many polls for some time and Republicans currently control the\n      House by only a narrow margin.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Regardless of where the presidential approval rating sits in the last few\n      weeks before the November vote \u2013 when this rating matters most \u2013 there is\n      little doubt in our minds that this midterm election will be a referendum\n      on Trump 2.0 given the president\u2019s outsized influence in the domestic\n      political arena (and on the global stage too).\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      This has the potential to affect not only House and Senate races at the\n      federal level but also some \u201cdown ballot\u201d state races, shaping political\n      party control over state legislatures and governorships.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>Most House seats up for grabs in many years<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      Another factor indicating to us that it will be challenging for\n      Republicans to retain House control is the high number of open seats where\n      no incumbent is running for office.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Among the 435 total House seats, 57 are open with 37 of those Republican,\n      as of this writing. This is the second most total vacancies since 1930 and\n      the largest number of Republican open seats during this period.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- EXHIBIT 2-->\n    <h3>\n      Second-highest number of House departures and highest number of Republican\n      departures since 1930\n    <\/h3>\n    <h4>\n      Number of U.S. Representatives not running for reelection (either\n      retiring or seeking a different office) by election year\n    <\/h4>\n    <div class=\"row mb-4\">\n      <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\"\n          src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/global\/midterms-markets-and-what-matters-en-chart-2.png\"\n          alt=\"Number of U.S. Representatives not running for reelection (either retiring or seeking a different office) by election year\"\n          class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\"\n          aria-describedby=\"ex2desc\"\n        \/>\n        <ul class=\"rbc-legend rbc-legend-inline\">\n          <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">\n            <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar c-blue-tint-1\"><\/div>\n            Democrats\n          <\/li>\n          <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">\n            <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar c-warm-red\"><\/div>\n            Republicans\n          <\/li>\n        <\/ul>\n        <p class=\"disclaimer\">\n          Source &#8211; RBC Wealth Management, Brookings Institution \u201cVital\n          Statistics on Congress\u201d project (historical data), Associated Press\n          \u201cTracking U.S. House retirements\u201d (2026 data, as of 4\/29\/26)\n        <\/p>\n        <p class=\"sr-only\" id=\"ex2desc\">\n          The bar chart shows the number of elected representatives leaving the\n          U.S. House of Representatives (those not running for reelection) by\n          each federal election year (presidential and midterm) from 1930 to\n          2026. Data from 2026 is preliminary as of April 29. The lowest number\n          of total departures during the period was in 1984: 22 total, 9\n          Democrat, 13 Republican. The highest number of total departures was in\n          1992: 65 total, 41 Democrat, 24 Republican. In 2026, preliminary\n          tracking data indicates 57 total departures, the second highest number\n          during the period shown, comprising 20 Democrats and 37 Republicans.\n          The 37 Republicans exiting the House represent the largest number of\n          Republican departures during the period.\n        <\/p>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n    <p>\n      Many of the vacancies are in districts that will likely be uncompetitive,\n      where voter registration leans heavily toward one party or the other.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      More than anything, the large number of Republican open seats is a marker\n      to us. We doubt so many Republicans would be moving on if rank-and-file\n      members felt confident the party would retain House control.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      It\u2019s well known inside the Washington Beltway that the majority party\n      holds more power and perks \u2013 this is by design \u2013 and these preferences\n      diminish noticeably for those same members, especially those in\n      leadership, when party control flips and they are in the minority.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>Redistricting shenanigans<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      The Trump administration and House Republicans set out to improve the\n      party\u2019s prospects in this midterm election by encouraging\n      Republican-leaning states to voluntarily redraw their congressional\n      districts in order to increase the likelihood that Republicans could win\n      more seats. This process is often called \u201cgerrymandering.\u201d\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Among the many criticisms of this process, redistricting can end up\n      dividing voters within cities or counties who have shared interests,\n      lumping them together with communities that differ greatly. Both\n      Republicans and Democrats have engaged in gerrymandering for decades.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      This cycle, initially the process did not go as Republicans had planned\n      because some Democratic-leaning states ended up gerrymandering as well.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      It remains to be seen how redistricting efforts could affect the balance\n      of power in the House. There are some court challenges outstanding, and a\n      recent landmark Supreme Court ruling about racial gerrymandering in\n      Louisiana has raised the possibility that additional states could redraw\n      congressional districts ahead of primary elections.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>A high hurdle to flip the Senate<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      Republicans currently control the upper chamber with 53 of the 100 seats,\n      and it would take a net gain of four seats for the Democrats to take\n      control (a 50-50 tie would give the president\u2019s party the majority as the\n      vice president votes to break ties).\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Republicans have a natural geographic advantage this election cycle. Among\n      the 35 Senate seats up for election, more of them are in red states (those\n      that tend to vote Republican) than in blue states (those that usually vote\n      Democratic).\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Polls have shown for many months that the Democrats would have to clear a\n      high hurdle to take control of the Senate. However, a number of pollsters\n      have recently shifted some seats to the \u201ccontested\u201d bucket that just a\n      couple months ago looked likely to be Republican wins.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Closer to the election, we think the president\u2019s approval rating and\n      voters\u2019 opinions about their economic prospects and inflation could impact\n      some key Senate races. Pocketbook issues tend to be the most important\n      concern of American voters in each and every election.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>Independent voters in command<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      We think independent voters will tip the scales in some hotly contested\n      House and Senate races this November.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Party loyalty has been decreasing for many years, and more voters now\n      self-identify as independent rather than as a Republican or Democrat.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      These are voters who are not registered as either Republicans or\n      Democrats, or who are registered to one of these two major parties but no\n      longer think of themselves as loyal party members or have a low opinion of\n      both parties.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- EXHIBIT 3-->\n    <h3>Independents still growing<\/h3>\n    <h4>\n      Gallup poll question: In politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a\n      Republican, a Democrat or an independent?\n    <\/h4>\n    <div class=\"row mb-4\">\n      <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\"\n          src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/global\/midterms-markets-and-what-matters-en-chart-3-v2.png\"\n          alt=\"Gallup poll question: In politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, or an independent?\"\n          class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\"\n          aria-describedby=\"ex3desc\"\n        \/>\n        <ul class=\"rbc-legend rbc-legend-inline\">\n          <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">\n            <div class=\"rbc-legend-line c-blue-tint-1\"><\/div>\n            Democrat\n          <\/li>\n          <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">\n            <div class=\"rbc-legend-line c-grey-tint-1\"><\/div>\n            Independent\n          <\/li>\n          <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">\n            <div class=\"rbc-legend-line c-warm-red\"><\/div>\n            Republican\n          <\/li>\n        <\/ul>\n        <p class=\"footnote\">\n          Democrat and Republican data are the same (overlap) from 2022 to 2025.\n        <\/p>\n        <p class=\"disclaimer\">\n          Source &#8211; Gallup; based on annual averages of telephone interview data,\n          1988\u20132025\n        <\/p>\n        <p class=\"sr-only\" id=\"ex3desc\">\n          The line chart shows the self-reported political party affiliation of\n          U.S. voters (Democrat, Republican, or independent) annually from 1988\n          to 2025. Democratic affiliation in 1988 was 36% and then was between\n          31%-34% until rising to 36% in 2008, the peak during this period.\n          Since then it trended steadily lower and ended 2025 at 27%. The\n          Republican trend began at 31% in 1988 and trended down to 29% in 1999.\n          It then moved higher, peaking at 33% in 2005. It moved lower after\n          that, reaching a low of 25% in 2013 before rising to 27% in 2025, the\n          same level as the Democrat reading that year. The Independent trend\n          began 1988 at 33% and moved higher to 39% in 1995. It then moved\n          lower, reaching 31% in 2004, the low point during this period. Since\n          then it has moved higher, ending at 45% in 2025, the highest level for\n          all three political designations.\n        <\/p>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n    <p>\n      President Trump won the 2024 election with the help of independent voters,\n      and many of these supporters perceived their economic prospects would\n      brighten with his return to the White House.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      But since then, independent voters\u2019 assessment of the president\u2019s handling\n      of the economy has soured. Discontent about ongoing inflation seems to be\n      a key reason.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- EXHIBIT 4-->\n    <h3>Independents and Democrats rather negative about economic issues<\/h3>\n    <h4>\n      AP-NORC poll question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way\n      Donald Trump is handling the economy and the cost of living?\n    <\/h4>\n    <div class=\"row mb-4\">\n      <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\"\n          src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/global\/midterms-markets-and-what-matters-en-chart-4.png\"\n          alt=\"AP-NORC poll question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling the economy and the cost of living?\"\n          class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\"\n          aria-describedby=\"ex4desc\"\n        \/>\n       <ul class=\"rbc-legend rbc-legend-inline\">\n  <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">\n    <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar c-apple\"><\/div>\n    Approve\n  <\/li>\n  <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">\n    <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar c-slate\"><\/div>\n    Disapprove\n  <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n        <p class=\"disclaimer\">\n          Source &#8211; AP-NORC (The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs\n          Research at the University of Chicago); poll conducted April 16\u201320,\n          2026 with 2,596 adults nationwide\n        <\/p>\n        <p class=\"sr-only\" id=\"ex4desc\">\n          The graphic shows polling approval ratings for U.S. President Donald\n          Trump\u2019s handling of two issues: the economy and the cost of living;\n          ratings are broken down by respondents\u2019 political affiliation\n          (Republican, Democrat, or independent). On the economy, among all\n          respondents, 30% approve, 70% disapprove. Among Republicans, 62%\n          approve, 37% disapprove. Among independents, 19% approve, 80%\n          disapprove. Among Democrats, 3% approve, 96% disapprove. On the cost\n          of living, among all respondents, 23% approve, 76% disapprove. Among\n          Republicans, 51% approve, 47% disapprove. Among independents, 12%\n          approve, 87% disapprove. Among Democrats, 2% approve, 98% disapprove.\n        <\/p>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n    <p\n      class=\"h3\"\n      style=\"\n        padding-bottom: 5px;\n        border-bottom: 2px solid #002750;\n      \"\n    >\n      What historical patterns say about the election effect\n    <\/p>\n    <p class=\"c-slate\">\n      <strong>\n        The big questions for investors are, do elections impact stock market\n        performance and does political party control in Washington matter for\n        the market?\n      <\/strong>\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>Four-year presidential cycle<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      When we analyze return data within the framework of the four-year\n      presidential cycle, there are some notable patterns.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Stock market returns in midterm election years tend to be the most muted\n      of the four-year cycle, with the S&amp;P&nbsp;500 rising 3.3&nbsp;percent\n      on average in those years since 1932. However, gains in the year following\n      the midterms tend to be the most robust, with the index rising\n      14.0&nbsp;percent on average.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- EXHIBIT 5-->\n    <h3>\n      Midterm election years tend to be weak, but the following year is\n      typically strong\n    <\/h3>\n    <h4>\n      S&amp;P&nbsp;500 performance during the four-year presidential cycle since\n      1932\n    <\/h4>\n    <div class=\"row mb-4\">\n      <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\"\n          src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/global\/midterms-markets-and-what-matters-en-chart-5.png\"\n          alt=\"S&amp;P&nbsp;500 performance during the four-year presidential cycle since 1932\"\n          class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\"\n          aria-describedby=\"ex5desc\"\n        \/>\n        <ul class=\"rbc-legend rbc-legend-inline\">\n          <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">\n            <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar c-dark-blue-tint-1\"><\/div>\n            Average\n          <\/li>\n          <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">\n            <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar c-tundra\"><\/div>\n            Median\n          <\/li>\n        <\/ul>\n        <p class=\"disclaimer\">\n          Source &#8211; RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; based on price return data\n          1932\u20132025, excluding dividends\n        <\/p>\n        <p class=\"sr-only\" id=\"ex5desc\">\n          The column chart shows S&#038;P 500 price performance from 1932 through\n          2025, segmented by the four-year U.S. presidential election cycle. In\n          presidential election years, the average return was 8.1%, median\n          return 11.8%. In the first year of presidential terms, the average was\n          7.0% and median 9.1%. In the midterm election year (year two of the\n          presidency), the average was 3.3% and median 0.6%. In the third year\n          of presidential terms, the average was 14.0% and median 18.1%.\n        <\/p>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n    <!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>Midterm election idiosyncrasies<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      Within the four-year cycle there are market return patterns associated\n      with midterm elections that are not captured by the annual performance\n      data, and these patterns have persisted regardless of events in\n      Washington, and regardless of which party was in power or was gaining or\n      losing momentum.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      In the 23 instances we examined stretching back to 1934, the\n      S&amp;P&nbsp;500 typically pulled back or corrected at some point during\n      the 12-month period before the midterm election. The index declined\n      20.8&nbsp;percent, on average.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      However, the downside quite often was more than made up for with\n      subsequent rallies. In those 23 instances, the market was higher at some\n      point in the calendar year after the midterm election by\n      46.3&nbsp;percent, on average.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      As is typical with historical market data, there was significant variation\n      in returns. The data behind the 46.3&nbsp;percent average gain represents\n      a wide range \u2013 from a 14.7&nbsp;percent to 87.1&nbsp;percent gain \u2013 although\n      the market was able to exceed its previous high on 74&nbsp;percent of the\n      23 occasions.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- EXHIBIT 6-->\n    <h3>\n      Corrections are common in midterm years, and so are follow-on rallies\n    <\/h3>\n    <h4>S&amp;P&nbsp;500 returns surrounding midterm elections (1934\u20132023)<\/h4>\n    <div class=\"row mb-4\">\n      <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\"\n          src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/global\/midterms-markets-and-what-matters-en-chart-6.png\"\n          alt=\"S&amp;P&nbsp;500 returns surrounding midterm elections (1934\u20132023)\"\n          class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\"\n          aria-describedby=\"ex6desc\"\n        \/>\n        <p class=\"footnote\">\n          * Measured from the peak (within 12 months before the midterm\n          election-year low) to that low. In 22 of 23 instances, the low\n          occurred before the midterm election; the exception was in 2018, when\n          it occurred after the election.\n        <\/p>\n        <p class=\"disclaimer\">\n          Source &#8211; RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; performance surrounding 23\n          midterm election years\n        <\/p>\n        <p class=\"sr-only\" id=\"ex6desc\">\n          The column chart shows S&#038;P 500 performance surrounding U.S. midterm\n          elections. The average decline reached in the midterm election year\n          was 20.8%. The decline is measured from the peak within 12 months\n          before the midterm election year low, to that low. The average gain\n          from the midterm year low to the high the following year was 46.3%.\n        <\/p>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n    <p>\n      It\u2019s also notable that during previous midterm election periods that were\n      accompanied by inflation challenges, the market reached a new high in the\n      year after the midterm election less frequently than during\n      noninflationary periods.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>Gridlock is good \u2013 sometimes<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      In terms of political party control, the market has welcomed certain forms\n      of gridlock in Washington \u2013 otherwise known as split or divided government\n      between the two major parties \u2013 but not always.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Our study going back to 1953 found that S&amp;P&nbsp;500 returns have\n      historically been the highest in three cases:\n    <\/p>\n    <ul class=\"list-spaced\">\n      <li>\n        When Democrats have controlled the presidency and the two parties have\n        split control of the House and Senate;\n      <\/li>\n      <li>\n        When a Democratic president has served alongside a Republican-controlled\n        Congress; or\n      <\/li>\n      <li>\n        When Republicans have controlled the presidency and both chambers of\n        Congress\n      <\/li>\n    <\/ul>\n    <p>\n      By contrast, returns have been more muted with a Republican president and\n      either a split or Democratic-controlled Congress.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- EXHIBIT 7-->\n    <h3>Elephant or donkey \u2013 or both?<\/h3>\n    <h4>Average annual S&amp;P&nbsp;500 returns since 1953 by party control<\/h4>\n    <div class=\"row mb-4\">\n      <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\"\n          src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/global\/midterms-markets-and-what-matters-en-chart-7.png\"\n          alt=\"Average annual S&amp;P&nbsp;500 returns since 1953 by party control \"\n          class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\"\n          aria-describedby=\"ex7desc\"\n        \/>\n        <p class=\"disclaimer\">\n          Source &#8211; RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; based on price return data\n          1953\u20132025, excluding dividends\n        <\/p>\n        <p class=\"sr-only\" id=\"ex7desc\">\n          The column chart shows historical average S&#038;P 500 annual returns under\n          various scenarios of party control of the U.S. federal government. The\n          S&#038;P 500 rose 13.3% during periods of a Republican sweep (when the\n          party controlled the presidency and both chambers of Congress). It\n          rose 7.3% when the Republicans controlled the presidency and control\n          of the Congress was split between Republicans and Democrats. It rose\n          4.9% when Republicans controlled the presidency and the Democrats\n          controlled both chambers of Congress. It rose 8.0% during periods of a\n          Democratic sweep. It rose 17.0% when Democrats controlled the\n          presidency and control of Congress was split between Republicans and\n          Democrats. It rose 16.3% when Democrats controlled the presidency and\n          Republicans controlled both chambers of Congress.\n        <\/p>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n    <p\n      class=\"h3\"\n      style=\"\n        padding-bottom: 5px;\n        border-bottom: 2px solid #002750;\n      \"\n    >\n      Elections matter, but economic fundamentals matter more\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Americans and observers outside the country who are interested in politics\n      and public policy rightly assign high importance to U.S. election\n      outcomes.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      The data demonstrates there are indeed market performance patterns\n      associated with midterm election years that we believe are worth paying\n      attention to and respecting.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      We are aware that the midterm election sample size is not large enough to\n      permit one to draw conclusions supported by high \u201cstatistical confidence.\u201d\n      That said, the data is very suggestive.\n    <\/p>\n    <ul class=\"list-spaced\">\n      <li>\n        In midterm elections, the sitting president\u2019s party almost always loses\n        seats and often those losses are large\n      <\/li>\n      <li>\n        The U.S. stock market has usually encountered a noteworthy correction in\n        that year, which also has consistently been the lowest-performing year\n        of the four-year presidential cycle\n      <\/li>\n      <li>\n        That correction has typically been followed by a robust rally in the\n        calendar year following the midterm election, most often taking the\n        market to new highs and making that year the strongest of the four-year\n        cycle\n      <\/li>\n    <\/ul>\n    <p>\n      In our assessment, however, elections and political party control in\n      Washington are not the main drivers of U.S. stock prices over time. We\n      think other issues have historically impacted the U.S. market more:\n    <\/p>\n    <ul class=\"list-spaced\">\n      <li>Corporate innovation trends<\/li>\n      <li>The Federal Reserve\u2019s monetary policy decisions<\/li>\n      <li>The natural ebb-and-flow of the business cycle and economy<\/li>\n      <li>Related corporate earnings trends<\/li>\n    <\/ul>\n    <p>\n      When it comes to asset allocation recommendations, we focus on domestic\n      economic and corporate earnings fundamentals, and specifically on\n      indicators associated with recession risks. It\u2019s recessions that are\n      usually responsible for ushering in equity bear markets.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      We don\u2019t think the approaching midterm election or its outcome in terms of\n      party control of the House and the Senate are reasons for long-term\n      investors to change their allocation to U.S. equities in portfolios.\n    <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The U.S. midterm election in November is shaping up to be a referendum on Trump 2.0. We examine historical equity market performance surrounding midterm elections, and what this might be \u2013 or might not be \u2013 suggesting for this year and next.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":19567,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2026-05-07T13:02:44","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[80],"tags":[835,836],"rbcwm_content_owner":[506],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[81],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-19566","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-equity-market-performance","tag-u-s-midterms","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"The U.S. midterm election in November is shaping up to be a referendum on Trump 2.0. We examine historical equity market performance surrounding midterm elections, and what this might be \u2013 or might not be \u2013 suggesting for this year and next.","rbcwm_post_author":[960],"rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":"","disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[8231],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.8 (Yoast SEO v26.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Midterms, the market and what matters<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The U.S. midterm election in November is shaping up to be a referendum on Trump 2.0. 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