{"id":7670,"date":"2023-06-26T20:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-06-27T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/insights\/rallies-recessions-and-realistic-thinking"},"modified":"2024-02-05T13:47:04","modified_gmt":"2024-02-05T18:47:04","slug":"rallies-recessions-and-realistic-thinking","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/insights\/rallies-recessions-and-realistic-thinking","title":{"rendered":"Rallies, recessions, and realistic thinking"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbcwm-well well is-style-is-style-b-blue-tint-4 b-blue-tint-4 mb-3 migrated\">\n<ul class=\"list-spaced wp-block-list\">\n<li> The market rally from the September lows has gone far enough to turn many sceptics into believers. Joining other major markets in new high ground this summer is not out of the question for North American averages. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li> \u201cFear of missing out\u201d has been propelling the North American averages higher and could go on doing so for some months yet. But the attractive valuations of last September are giving way to loftier price-to-earnings ratios that we believe will need the economy to cooperate to be justified. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li> Reliable leading indicators of U.S. recession continue to worsen, suggesting to us that this latest advance in share prices will eventually give way to a more challenging period for equity investors. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>       A year ago, our 2022 Midyear Outlook was looking at an equity market       landscape that was mostly the opposite of today\u2019s:     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>         Central banks, including the Fed, had started 2022 prepared to be         somewhat tolerant of a pick-up in inflation but changed their tune as         prices rose much faster than policymakers expected in the early months         of the year. Mid-2022 would mark the opening stages of what would come         to be the steepest series of rate hikes ever. Still to come for the Fed         would be an unprecedented run of four successive 75 basis point (bps)         jumps, followed by four more subdued increases totalling an additional         125 bps.       <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>         Also at this time last year, the stock market\u2019s price-to-earnings (P\/E)         multiples had already been pressured lower by the sharp rise in bond         yields that came with Fed tightening. The S&amp;P 500 Index was down by         27 percent from its January 2022 peak while the Nasdaq was a whopping 38         percent off its high-water mark set in November 2021. Both had been         heavily burdened by the big decline in P\/E ratios among the previously         high-flying mega-cap growth stocks. The six largest such stocks         constituted more than 25 percent of the value of the S&amp;P 500 at the         peak of the market in early January last year.       <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-enter-the-rally\">Enter the rally<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>       Most global equity indexes went on losing some more ground into last       September before turning higher into a new up-leg. That rally from       September has continued up to the present day. From September until May       this was viewed by most as no better than a bear market rally that would       eventually peter out. But as the S&amp;P 500 moved convincingly above its       trading range over the past six weeks it has rekindled investor optimism.       Market sentiment gauges have soared as \u201cfear of missing out\u201d (FOMO) has       replaced caution.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       For our part, we think this equity market up-leg has further to run. The       UK\u2019s FTSE All-Share Index, the EURO STOXX 50, and Japan\u2019s TOPIX have all       posted new highs for this cycle. Before the rally is over, we expect the       S&amp;P 500 and Canada\u2019s S&amp;P\/TSX Composite will do the same.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-new-bull-or-last-gasp\">New bull or last gasp<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>       However, this doesn\u2019t feel to us much like the start of a new bull market,       but rather much more like the last leg of the current bull run. Whichever       it is, the market is certainly in a different place than it was back at       the September lows. At that point, most indexes had been falling steeply       for nine months, some even longer. The P\/E ratio for the S&amp;P 500, an       extravagantly overvalued 23.1x at the peak of the market in early January       2022, in our view, had fallen to a much more palatable, slightly       undervalued 15.9x by September. This downswing in the index and in       valuations occurred even as reported earnings were rising \u2013 the running 12       months earnings per share had risen from US$208 to US$219. Meanwhile, over the       same interval, investor sentiment followed the market lower, sinking all       the way from unsustainably bullish readings at the top in January to       equally unsustainable bearish ones at the bottom in late September.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       Since then, everything has been turned pretty much topsy-turvy. The U.S.       equity market has gone up for nine months instead of down, and the S&amp;P       500 is edging closer to new all-time highs. P\/E multiples are back above a       rich 20x. And, as noted above, sentiment readings have roared higher,       getting closer to (but not yet at) the unsustainable levels that last       prevailed at the top of the market a year-and-a-half ago.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-don-t-fight-the-economy\">Don\u2019t fight the economy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>       This strong upswing in equity index values (mostly contributed once again       by a handful of mega-cap Tech and tech-related stocks as well as by a wave       of investor interest for anything even remotely related to artificial       intelligence) is persuading some market watchers that the U.S. economy       will avoid a deeper downturn. However, most reliable leading indicators of       recession (see our       <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/documents\/insights\/global-insight-recession-scorecard-june-2023-en.pdf\" title=\"U.S. Recession Scorecard: On the path to a U.S. recession\" class=\"file-pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">U.S. Recession Scorecard <\/a>) have been moving inexorably toward even more negative readings.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-s-amp-p-500-index-versus-s-amp-p-500-equal-weight-index\">S&amp;P 500 Index versus S&amp;P 500 Equal Weight Index<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-both-series-indexed-to-the-s-amp-p-500-index-value-on-feb-3-2023\">Both series indexed to the S&amp;P 500 Index value on Feb. 3, 2023<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"row mb-4 migrated\">       <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">         <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2023\/06\/rallies-recessions-realistic-en-chart-1.png\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 Index versus S&amp;P 500 Equal Weight Index\" class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\" \/>         <p           class=\"sr-only\"           id=\"chart1desc\"         >           The line chart shows the value of the S&#038;P 500 Index and the S&#038;P 500           Equal Weight Index at the end of each week from February 3, 2023           through June 23, 2023. As of June 23, the S&#038;P 500 had risen by 7 percent,           while the equal weight index was 4 percent lower.         <\/p>         <ul class=\"rbc-legend rbc-legend-inline\">           <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">             <div class=\"rbc-legend-line c-dark-blue-tint-1\"><\/div>             S&amp;P 500 Index           <\/li>           <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">             <div class=\"rbc-legend-line c-warm-yellow\"><\/div>             S&amp;P 500 Equal Weight Index           <\/li>         <\/ul>          <p class=\"disclaimer\">           Source &#8211; Standard &amp; Poor\u2019s, FactSet; weekly data through 6\/23\/23         <\/p>       <\/div>     <\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>       Of course, even leading indicators of U.S. recession that have been       repeatedly and consistently right over the last 70 years or more could be       wrong this time. Earnings and GDP growth could conceivably be pulling out       of their funk starting right now. And if current consensus earnings       estimates for US$231 per share a year from now and US$246 per share for all of       2024 prove to be correct, then that may be what is happening. That would       put today\u2019s index value at almost 19x year-ahead earnings \u2013 not cheap, but       perhaps not overly risky either, in our view.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       However, our Recession Scorecard tells us that the underlying economic       assumptions needed to bring in those improved earnings are becoming more       and more improbable by the week. We expect that a U.S. recession will       arrive later this year, that actual earnings will come in lower than       current consensus estimates, and that share prices will go through a       challenging period during which unrealistic optimism on the part of       investors gives way eventually to unrealistic pessimism.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Only resilient stocks need apply<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>       We continue to recommend Market Weight equity exposure for a global       balanced portfolio because we think this advance has further to go into       the summer months. However, we increasingly think individual stock       selections should be restricted to companies that an investor would be       content to own through a recession. For us, that means high-quality       businesses with resilient balance sheets, sustainable dividends, and       business models that are not intensely sensitive to the economic cycle.     <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The S&#038;P 500\u2019s surge over the past nine months doesn\u2019t feel to us like the start of a new bull market, but rather like the last leg of the current rally.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":7673,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2023-06-27 00:00:00.0","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[80],"tags":[410,247],"rbcwm_content_owner":[506],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[81],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-7670","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-global-equities","tag-stock-market-rally","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"The S&P 500\u2019s surge over the past nine months doesn\u2019t feel to us like the start of a new bull market, but rather like the last leg of the current rally.","rbcwm_post_author":[966],"rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":[],"omit_from_pages":[],"disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[8231],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":""},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.8 (Yoast SEO v26.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Rallies, recessions, and realistic thinking<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The S&amp;P 500\u2019s surge over the past nine months doesn\u2019t feel to us like the start of a new bull market, but rather like the last leg of the current rally.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/insights\/rallies-recessions-and-realistic-thinking\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Rallies, recessions, and realistic thinking\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The S&amp;P 500\u2019s surge over the past nine months doesn\u2019t feel to us like the start of a new bull market, but rather like the last leg of the current rally.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/insights\/rallies-recessions-and-realistic-thinking\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"RBC Wealth Management\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-06-27T00:00:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-02-05T18:47:04+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2023\/02\/businessman-on-phone-laptop-on-busy-urban-street.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"3210\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"2140\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"taravandenberg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Rallies, recessions, and realistic thinking\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"The S&amp;P 500\u2019s surge over the past nine months doesn\u2019t feel to us like the start of a new bull market, but rather like the last leg of the current rally.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/insights\/rallies-recessions-and-realistic-thinking#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/insights\/rallies-recessions-and-realistic-thinking\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"taravandenberg\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/#\/schema\/person\/8803578712bd073b70bbc17e6909b59b\"},\"headline\":\"Rallies, recessions, and realistic thinking\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-06-27T00:00:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-02-05T18:47:04+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/insights\/rallies-recessions-and-realistic-thinking\"},\"wordCount\":1141,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/insights\/rallies-recessions-and-realistic-thinking#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2023\/02\/businessman-on-phone-laptop-on-busy-urban-street.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"global equities\",\"stock market rally\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Analysis\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/insights\/rallies-recessions-and-realistic-thinking\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/insights\/rallies-recessions-and-realistic-thinking\",\"name\":\"Rallies, recessions, and realistic thinking\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/insights\/rallies-recessions-and-realistic-thinking#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/insights\/rallies-recessions-and-realistic-thinking#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2023\/02\/businessman-on-phone-laptop-on-busy-urban-street.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-06-27T00:00:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-02-05T18:47:04+00:00\",\"description\":\"The S&P 500\u2019s surge over the past nine months doesn\u2019t feel to us like the start of a new bull market, but rather like the last leg of the current rally.\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/insights\/rallies-recessions-and-realistic-thinking#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/insights\/rallies-recessions-and-realistic-thinking\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/insights\/rallies-recessions-and-realistic-thinking#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2023\/02\/businessman-on-phone-laptop-on-busy-urban-street.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2023\/02\/businessman-on-phone-laptop-on-busy-urban-street.jpg\",\"width\":3210,\"height\":2140},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/insights\/rallies-recessions-and-realistic-thinking#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Rallies, recessions, and realistic thinking\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/\",\"name\":\"RBC Wealth Management\",\"description\":\"\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/#organization\",\"name\":\"RBC Wealth Management\",\"alternateName\":\"RBC Wealth Management\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2023\/02\/rbc.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2023\/02\/rbc.png\",\"width\":3000,\"height\":2000,\"caption\":\"RBC Wealth Management\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"}},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/#\/schema\/person\/8803578712bd073b70bbc17e6909b59b\",\"name\":\"taravandenberg\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/807f9a5b689d28ecee3262e00b8755e7d4849ada61e3144de1a2d65c713bfc12?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/807f9a5b689d28ecee3262e00b8755e7d4849ada61e3144de1a2d65c713bfc12?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"taravandenberg\"}}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Rallies, recessions, and realistic thinking","description":"The S&P 500\u2019s surge over the past nine months doesn\u2019t feel to us like the start of a new bull market, but rather like the last leg of the current rally.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/insights\/rallies-recessions-and-realistic-thinking","og_locale":"en_GB","og_type":"article","og_title":"Rallies, recessions, and realistic thinking","og_description":"The S&P 500\u2019s surge over the past nine months doesn\u2019t feel to us like the start of a new bull market, but rather like the last leg of the current rally.","og_url":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/insights\/rallies-recessions-and-realistic-thinking","og_site_name":"RBC Wealth Management","article_published_time":"2023-06-27T00:00:00+00:00","article_modified_time":"2024-02-05T18:47:04+00:00","og_image":[{"width":3210,"height":2140,"url":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2023\/02\/businessman-on-phone-laptop-on-busy-urban-street.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"taravandenberg","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_title":"Rallies, recessions, and realistic thinking","twitter_description":"The S&P 500\u2019s surge over the past nine months doesn\u2019t feel to us like the start of a new bull market, but rather like the last leg of the current rally.","twitter_misc":{"Est. reading time":"6 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/insights\/rallies-recessions-and-realistic-thinking#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/insights\/rallies-recessions-and-realistic-thinking"},"author":{"name":"taravandenberg","@id":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/#\/schema\/person\/8803578712bd073b70bbc17e6909b59b"},"headline":"Rallies, recessions, and realistic thinking","datePublished":"2023-06-27T00:00:00+00:00","dateModified":"2024-02-05T18:47:04+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/insights\/rallies-recessions-and-realistic-thinking"},"wordCount":1141,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/insights\/rallies-recessions-and-realistic-thinking#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2023\/02\/businessman-on-phone-laptop-on-busy-urban-street.jpg","keywords":["global equities","stock market rally"],"articleSection":["Analysis"],"inLanguage":"en-GB"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/insights\/rallies-recessions-and-realistic-thinking","url":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/insights\/rallies-recessions-and-realistic-thinking","name":"Rallies, recessions, and realistic thinking","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/insights\/rallies-recessions-and-realistic-thinking#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/insights\/rallies-recessions-and-realistic-thinking#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2023\/02\/businessman-on-phone-laptop-on-busy-urban-street.jpg","datePublished":"2023-06-27T00:00:00+00:00","dateModified":"2024-02-05T18:47:04+00:00","description":"The S&P 500\u2019s surge over the past nine months doesn\u2019t feel to us like the start of a new bull market, but rather like the last leg of the current rally.","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/insights\/rallies-recessions-and-realistic-thinking#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-GB","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/insights\/rallies-recessions-and-realistic-thinking"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-GB","@id":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/insights\/rallies-recessions-and-realistic-thinking#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2023\/02\/businessman-on-phone-laptop-on-busy-urban-street.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2023\/02\/businessman-on-phone-laptop-on-busy-urban-street.jpg","width":3210,"height":2140},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/insights\/rallies-recessions-and-realistic-thinking#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Rallies, recessions, and realistic thinking"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/","name":"RBC Wealth Management","description":"","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-GB"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/#organization","name":"RBC Wealth Management","alternateName":"RBC Wealth Management","url":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-GB","@id":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2023\/02\/rbc.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2023\/02\/rbc.png","width":3000,"height":2000,"caption":"RBC Wealth Management"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/#\/schema\/person\/8803578712bd073b70bbc17e6909b59b","name":"taravandenberg","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-GB","@id":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/807f9a5b689d28ecee3262e00b8755e7d4849ada61e3144de1a2d65c713bfc12?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/807f9a5b689d28ecee3262e00b8755e7d4849ada61e3144de1a2d65c713bfc12?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"taravandenberg"}}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2023\/02\/businessman-on-phone-laptop-on-busy-urban-street.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"publishpress_future_action":{"enabled":false,"date":"2026-04-17 22:18:39","action":"change-status","newStatus":"draft","terms":[],"taxonomy":"category","extraData":[]},"publishpress_future_workflow_manual_trigger":{"enabledWorkflows":[]},"distributor_meta":false,"distributor_terms":false,"distributor_media":false,"distributor_original_site_name":"RBC Wealth Management","distributor_original_site_url":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu","push-errors":false,"last_revision_date":"2024-02-05 13:47:04","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7670","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7670"}],"version-history":[{"count":12,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7670\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12877,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7670\/revisions\/12877"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/rbcwm_cta\/8231"},{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/rbcwm_people\/966"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7673"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7670"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7670"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7670"},{"taxonomy":"rbcwm_content_owner","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/rbcwm_content_owner?post=7670"},{"taxonomy":"rbcwm_need","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/rbcwm_need?post=7670"},{"taxonomy":"rbcwm_segment","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/rbcwm_segment?post=7670"},{"taxonomy":"rbcwm_solution","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/rbcwm_solution?post=7670"},{"taxonomy":"rbcwm_topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/rbcwm_topic?post=7670"},{"taxonomy":"rbcwm_channel","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/rbcwm_channel?post=7670"},{"taxonomy":"rbcwm_format","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/rbcwm_format?post=7670"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}