{"id":7937,"date":"2023-08-25T05:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-08-25T09:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/insights\/will-persistent-economic-resilience-continue"},"modified":"2023-11-01T11:10:29","modified_gmt":"2023-11-01T15:10:29","slug":"will-persistent-economic-resilience-continue","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/insights\/will-persistent-economic-resilience-continue","title":{"rendered":"Will persistent economic resilience continue?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>By Joseph Wu, CFA<\/strong><\/p> <p>       Despite a steep rise in interest rates across many countries over the past       year, global growth has maintained an upward trajectory. As the largest       economy in the world, the U.S. continues to display resilience.       Projections from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta\u2019s       <a         href=\"https:\/\/www.atlantafed.org\/cqer\/research\/gdpnow\"         title=\"Atlanta Fed GDPNow\" class=\"link-ext\"         >GDPNow <\/a>       model suggest U.S. real GDP could expand by over five percent in Q3.       Should this forecast hold true, U.S. economic growth would more than       double its Q2 rate, marking the fastest pace since Q4 2021. While we think       this forecast will almost certainly be revised lower as the quarter       progresses, the recent trend of economic data surprising on the upside       paints a picture of an economy running stronger than expected. In our       view, the following constructive factors that have been propelling the       U.S. economy could help extend the growth runway in the near term:     <\/p>     <ul class=\"list-spaced\">       <li>         <strong>Disinflation is well underway.<\/strong> Since peaking at a 9.1         percent year-over-year (y\/y) rate in June 2022, the U.S. Consumer Price         Index (CPI) fell to 3.3 percent in July. Initially driven by lower         energy and goods prices, the next source of disinflation is likely to         come from housing-related categories. Real-time rent trackers have         largely normalised to pre-pandemic levels, suggesting shelter inflation         will ease substantially over the remainder of the year.       <\/li>       <li>         <strong>U.S. households remain in good shape.<\/strong> Consumers still         have deployable savings, and strong labour demand continues to augment         income gains. Although the pace of hiring has slowed, the unemployment         rate remains exceptionally low, job openings remain ample, and         inflation-adjusted pay increases have turned positive.       <\/li>       <li>         <strong           >There are few signs of strain in corporate fundamentals. <\/strong>The Q2 reporting season has broadly featured above-average beat rates         relative to consensus profit estimates, solid margins, and stable         guidance. These trends indicate companies have been able to manage         operating costs to defend margins without resorting to blanket layoffs.       <\/li>     <\/ul>     <h3>       Pay raises are outpacing inflation again after lagging for almost two       years     <\/h3>     <h4>U.S. real (inflation-adjusted) wage growth proxy<\/h4>     <div class=\"row mb-4 migrated\">       <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">         <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2023\/08\/persistent-resilience-en-chart-1-.png\" alt=\"U.S. real wage growth proxy\" class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\" \/>         <p           class=\"sr-only\"           id=\"chart1desc\"         >           Line chart showing U.S. real (inflation-adjusted) wage growth,           calculated as the Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker Overall minus U.S.           CPI. Based on this measure, U.S. real wage growth has improved to           +2.5% in July, after dipping into negative territory between April           2021 and January 2023.         <\/p>         <ul class=\"rbc-legend\">           <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">             <div class=\"rbc-legend-line c-dark-blue-tint-1\"><\/div>             Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker Overall minus U.S. CPI           <\/li>         <\/ul>          <p class=\"disclaimer\">           Source &#8211; RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; data through 7\/31\/23         <\/p>       <\/div>     <\/div>      <!-- section -->     <h2>Uncertainties<\/h2>     <p>       It is now easier to envision a \u201csoft landing\u201d for the U.S. economy, in       which monetary policy tightening curbs inflation without inflicting major       economic pain. But we think some uncertainties continue to stand out as       potential sources of risk.     <\/p>     <p>       Lingering upside risks to inflation warrant monitoring, in our view. Price       pressures have subsided meaningfully, but various measures of worker       compensation growth still seem too high to be consistent with credible       expectations of inflation returning to the Fed\u2019s two percent target over       the medium term. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) was 4.7 percent y\/y       in July, while the recent rebound in energy commodity prices serves as a       reminder that central banks\u2019 battle with inflation may not be over.     <\/p>     <p>       Given that Fed officials continue to reiterate their focus on inflation       and a tight labour market, they will likely require more concrete evidence       of softened labour demand before concluding that inflation is sustainably       converging to their target and monetary policy does not need to tighten       further.     <\/p>     <p>       We are also mindful of the delayed effects tied to monetary policy       adjustments. Persistent economic strength has motivated some to take the       view that the U.S. economy is immune to higher interest rates, but we       believe the more likely explanation is the \u201clong and variable\u201d lag for       monetary policy to be felt in the economy. According to RBC Global Asset       Management, each rate hike can deliver a steady headwind to economic       activity lasting about 2.5 years.     <\/p>     <p>       The possibility that monetary policy may have to remain restrictive for       some time (higher rates for longer) or turn even more restrictive (more       rate hikes), if Fed officials deem it necessary to counteract upside       inflation risks, could inject additional uncertainty into the economic       outlook. This uncertainty, coinciding with more onerous bank lending       standards that are making it harder for households and businesses to get       loans, could increase the vulnerability of the economy to higher borrowing       costs, with spillover effects for corporate earnings.     <\/p>     <!-- section -->     <h2>Putting it all together<\/h2>     <p>       Global equities have generated solid returns this year, buoyed by       continued robust data out of the U.S. which have allayed prevalent worries       around a significant growth slowdown coming into 2023. Lower inflation       with ongoing resilience in the labour market have emboldened markets to       lean into a benign \u201csoft landing\u201d as the most probable outcome for the       economy over the coming quarters.     <\/p>     <p>       This optimistic economic view has been reflected in the stock market       through a rebound in valuation multiples and stabilisation in consensus       earnings estimates. In fixed income markets, compensation for taking       credit risk has diminished \u2013 reflected in narrower credit spreads \u2013 though       higher base interest rates have helped keep all-in yields at attractive       levels.     <\/p>     <h3>       Return potential in bonds now looks more competitive relative to equities     <\/h3>     <h4>Valuations across major asset classes*<\/h4>     <div class=\"row mb-4 migrated\">       <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">         <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2023\/08\/persistent-resilience-en-chart-2.png\" alt=\"Valuations across major asset classes\" class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\" \/>         <p           class=\"sr-only\"           id=\"chart2desc\"         >           Bar chart showing the current forward earnings yield for the MSCI           All-Country World Index and the S&#038;P 500 and the yield to worst for the           Bloomberg U.S. Corporate Index, the Bloomberg Global Agg Credit Index,           the Bloomberg U.S. Corporate High Yield Index, and the Bloomberg           Global Corporate High Yield Index, compared to January 1, 2022, and           the average since 2002. On a relative basis, the yield advantage that           equities commanded over corporate bonds has sharply diminished over           the past year.         <\/p>         <ul class=\"rbc-legend rbc-legend-inline\">           <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">             <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar c-dark-blue-tint-1\"><\/div>             Jan 1, 2022           <\/li>           <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">             <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar c-blue-tint-1\"><\/div>             Current           <\/li>           <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">             <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar c-warm-yellow\"><\/div>             Average since 2002           <\/li>         <\/ul>          <p class=\"footnote\">           *Earnings yield is the inverse of the forward price-to-earnings ratio.           Bond yield refers to yield to worst for the Bloomberg U.S. Corporate           Index, the Bloomberg Global Agg Credit Index, the Bloomberg U.S.           Corporate High Yield Index, and the Bloomberg Global Corporate High           Yield Index.         <\/p>         <p class=\"disclaimer\">           Source &#8211; RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; data through 8\/18\/23         <\/p>       <\/div>     <\/div>     <p>       On balance, we think a modestly defensive stance in portfolios with a       focus on relative value remains sensible on the belief that the U.S.       economy is likely in the later stages of the business cycle.     <\/p>     <p>       While history shows that the late-cycle period usually still delivers       positive returns for stocks, we believe investors should prepare for       potential bouts of volatility as perceptions about the outlook can shift       rapidly. In this part of the cycle, we think equity portfolios can benefit       from emphasising companies with robust quality characteristics \u2013 lower debt       levels, consistent pricing power, reliable cash flow generation, and       sustainable dividends \u2013 as they tend to be better equipped to weather       tougher economic conditions.     <\/p>     <p>       Given the rally in equity markets this year, relative value \u2013 proxied by the       spread of bond yields over equity earnings yields \u2013 have moved in favour of       bonds. Along these lines, we continue to see timely opportunities in fixed       income markets for deploying capital, with government bonds a useful       source of portfolio defensiveness and the potential for mid-to-high       single-digit returns in corporate credit. Yields in many bond markets have       risen to their highest levels in more than a decade. Historically,       starting yields have translated closely into annualised returns over the       medium term.     <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As global equities generate solid returns this year, we explain where we see potential opportunities for investors, despite the potential for market volatility.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":7941,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2023-08-24 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