{"id":8250,"date":"2023-08-28T20:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-08-29T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/insights\/central-bank-digital-currency-and-the-future-of-money"},"modified":"2023-12-18T09:59:51","modified_gmt":"2023-12-18T14:59:51","slug":"central-bank-digital-currency-and-the-future-of-money","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/insights\/central-bank-digital-currency-and-the-future-of-money","title":{"rendered":"Central bank digital currency and the future of money"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>By Atul Bhatia, CFA<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbcwm-well well is-style-is-style-b-blue-tint-4 b-blue-tint-4 mb-3 migrated\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-left\" id=\"h-key-points\">Key points<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"list-spaced wp-block-list\">\n<li> Electronic payments are on the rise as cash usage declines across the globe, leading an increasing number of governments to think about launching digital versions of their currencies. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li> Central bank digital currencies, or CBDCs, in theory offer faster and cheaper payments, allow people currently outside the traditional banking system access to financial infrastructure, and could reduce settlement risk and delays on international trade. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li> Despite the hype around CBDCs, we see a host of security, privacy, and governance concerns that we believe outweigh the theoretical gains on efficiency, and we think it would be quite challenging to line up the necessary political support for an aggressive push toward a digital dollar. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li> We think the Federal Reserve will continue to emphasise incremental technology improvements versus a risky push to transform the payments infrastructure. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li> Bottom line: Commercial bank accounts and physical cash are likely to remain at the center of U.S. financial architecture for the foreseeable future. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>       Cash may be king, but the crown seems to have lost some of its luster of       late. Survey data shows consumers across the world increasingly prefer       electronic payment over currency, with more than 70 percent of respondents       from countries as varied as Sweden and South Korea wanting to go cashless.       At the same time, producing and distributing currency \u2013 as well as fighting       counterfeit notes \u2013 is an expensive and difficult process. The solution, it       would seem, is obvious: have central banks distribute currency in       electronic format, an idea known as a central bank digital currency or       CBDC.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       CBDC is a global phenomenon, with dozens of countries studying the idea       and a handful already implementing some version of a CBDC. Given the       global prominence of U.S. currency, we focus our discussion on the       potential for a digital dollar, and conclude with a brief discussion of       China\u2019s experience as one of the leaders in rolling out digital currency.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Showing its age? Younger people use cash less often<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Percentage of payments made using various methods, by age cohort<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"row mb-4 migrated\">       <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">         <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2023\/08\/central-bank-digital-currency-en-chart-1.png\" alt=\"Percentage of payments made using various methods, by age cohort\" class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\" \/>         <p           class=\"sr-only\"           id=\"chart1desc\"         >         Column chart showing how payments system usage varies with age and reflects an increased use of cash in older cohorts, with those 55 and older using cash 20% of the time. Individuals under 45 use cash about half as much as those over 55, with the difference being increased use of credit and debt by younger users.         <\/p>         <ul class=\"rbc-legend rbc-legend-inline\">           <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">             <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar c-blue-tint-1\"><\/div>             Cash           <\/li>           <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">             <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar c-warm-yellow\"><\/div>             Credit           <\/li>           <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">             <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar c-warm-grey\"><\/div>             Debit           <\/li>           <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">             <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar c-sun\"><\/div>             ACH           <\/li>           <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">             <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar c-dark-blue-tint-1\"><\/div>             Mobile Payment App           <\/li>           <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">             <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar c-carbon\"><\/div>             Other           <\/li>         <\/ul>         <p class=\"disclaimer\">           Source &#8211; Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco; ACH = Automated           Clearing House         <\/p>       <\/div>     <\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Digital currency label breeds confusion<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>       As with many financial innovations, we think rhetoric has outstripped       precision, so there are some differences in what people mean when they       talk about central bank digital currencies. For us, a true CBDC is a       system where individuals hold currency directly at a central bank, in       electronic format, with no means of converting their holdings into       physical currency.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       Although digital, CBDCs are not cryptocurrencies. One hallmark of a       cryptocurrency is that the supply of money is not controlled by an       institution. Bitcoin, for instance, is created and paid out as a reward to       so-called miners, or the users who perform the background computational       work to keep the system going. CBDC, on the other hand, remains fiat       money, created or destroyed by a central bank as part of its monetary       policy decision-making. Some of the CBDCs being evaluated by central banks       rely on the digital architecture of cryptocurrencies, such as blockchain       verification, but that\u2019s a distraction, in our view. At its core, a       digital dollar is still a dollar, and the number in circulation is set by       the Federal Reserve, not a formula.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">CBDCs\u2019 place in the currency landscape<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"row mb-4 migrated\">       <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">         <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2023\/08\/central-bank-digital-currency-en-chart-2.png\" alt=\"CBDCs\u2019 place in the currency landscape\" class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\" \/>         <p           class=\"sr-only\"           id=\"chart2desc\"         >         This is a Venn diagram showing the overlap between three characteristics of different payment types: central bank liability, electronic format, and widely accessible. CBDCs are at the intersection of all three, cash is in the overlap between widely accessible and central bank liability, reserves are in the overlap between central bank liability and electronic, and crypto and e-banking are at the overlap of electronic and widely accessible.          <\/p>         <p class=\"disclaimer\">Source &#8211; RBC Wealth Management<\/p>       <\/div>     <\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>       In fact, despite the emphasis on the digital format, we believe the core       difference between a digital currency system and a physical one is how       records of ownership are maintained.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       With physical dollars, ownership records are diffuse. The cash that an       individual has on deposit with a bank is largely known only to the bank       and the depositor. Funds can be transferred completely anonymously, via       cash, and even when transferred electronically, records of the movement       will be separated: the payer\u2019s bank, for instance, will know which account       to debit, but it won\u2019t know any information about the recipient. The       receiving bank will credit its customer yet knows nothing about the payer.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       This system is gloriously inefficient, with a single transaction easily       requiring four separate institutions to update records and possibly taking       days to make the transfer final, but it has also functioned effectively       for centuries.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       In the case of a digital dollar, efficiency is the watchword. Ownership       records are fully electronic and consolidated, making movements between       accounts simple and instantaneous. In practice, individuals and businesses       would likely have accounts directly at the Fed, and buying groceries, for       instance, would simply involve a customer moving CBDC from its Fed account       to the grocer&#8217;s. Since both accounts are held at the same institution, the       central bank can instantly and freely transfer the funds, eliminating the       delays inherent in our current, dispersed banking system.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       This type of digitisation is not new. The U.S. essentially went through       this process in the 1980s, when Treasury bond ownership went from being       physical securities to so-called book-entry format. Conceptually, that       move was identical to what\u2019s being contemplated here: replacing a physical       asset \u2013 paper bonds with attached coupons \u2013 with a central database recording       ownership. Book entry made transfers simple and coupon payments routine,       generating massive efficiency in the Treasury bond market. The difference       between CBDCs and book entry bonds is one of degree, not kind.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">McMoney \u2013 fast and cheap<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>       Broadly speaking, we see two main benefits to countries that choose to       implement a CBDC.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       First, it would reduce costs and increase access to payment services. In       the U.S., for instance, roughly five percent of the U.S. population does       not have a bank account and most small businesses pay between two percent       and five percent of revenues for payment processing, mainly credit card       fees. A CBDC would eliminate those costs and bring the entire population       into the banking system, creating savings and efficiencies that would be       felt positively, even in an economy the size of the United States\u2019. For       countries with larger unbanked populations or higher payment fees, the       potential gains would be even more important.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       Second, it would reduce transaction processing times and so-called float       risk, as suppliers wait for payments to clear. This is mainly an issue for       larger corporate transactions and international trade, but the ability to       create immediate transfers in a closed financial system can mitigate       certain types of fraud risk and can greatly reduce lost interest income.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       There are other potential benefits that CBDCs can create by reducing       counterfeiting, cutting production and distribution costs, and potentially       helping policy implementation, but we think those are of secondary       importance. The economic case for a CBDC, we believe, begins and ends with       the efficiency of reducing financial friction costs across the economy.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">       Why a CBDC won\u2019t be coming to a Federal Reserve near you anytime soon     <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>       Economists in general like efficiency, but the flipside is that efficient       systems lack the redundancy that make for stability. We think having a       single point of failure for dollar payments in a world that uses the       greenback for all manner of trade is, in a nutshell, a terrible idea. In       one move, we think the U.S. would create an unparalleled target for       hackers and thieves, not to mention terrorists or geopolitical rivals.       Even a cursory look at the history of electronic security shows the risks       of centralising data and wealth.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       Putting aside potential bad actors, what about a software update that goes       wrong? The U.S. has seen nationwide flight departures canceled because a       contractor accidentally deleted the wrong files in a critical Federal       Aviation Administration system. That was bad, but a world where dollarised       economic activity cannot take place for hours or days or even minutes       would be catastrophic.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       The Fed already operates mission-critical payments systems, but these       generally offer connections only to depository institutions or regional       Federal Reserve banks. Trying to secure a system offering hundreds of       millions of access points to trillions of dollars on a 24\/7 basis is a       Herculean task, and we believe current technology and practices are       insufficient to truly protect a CBDC environment.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       Outside of security, there are also privacy concerns with centralising       sensitive financial information and making it available to the government.       In the U.S., federal officials already have broad access to individual       financial data via subpoena powers, but combining all financial       information in one spot is a step-change higher in potential informational       abuses.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       There are also concerns the government would be able to interfere with       certain transactions. Take, for instance, the U.S. states where marijuana       is now legal. Many of these businesses already struggle to find banking       services, but that fight is nothing compared to the potential impact of       being shut out by the Fed in a world where a CBDC is the only alternative.       A single decision to cut off marijuana spending would reduce those       businesses \u2013 deemed legal by the states where they operate \u2013 to bankruptcy or       the barter system.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       Even with privacy guardrails, we believe the potential powers a CBDC would       give to the Fed \u2013 which is already a massively powerful institution \u2013 would       almost inevitably lead to politicisation of the central bank. We shudder       to think of the U.S. Senate confirmation hearings for a Fed chair nominee       in a world where that person could exert practical control over the       payments system, and we believe those political considerations would       quickly override the monetary policy credentials for future nominees.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">No, really, not anytime soon<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>       On balance, our view is that it\u2019s difficult to make a strong theoretical       case for moving to a CBDC infrastructure. The efficiency benefits are real       and meaningful, but they simply cannot justify creating a single point of       failure in critical payments infrastructure.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       In practical terms, we see an even steeper climb for the digital dollar.       Historically, the U.S. has never been an early adopter of financial       innovation. It was one of the last countries to implement chip credit       cards, and the U.S. remains the largest user of paper checks in the world.       Over five percent of cashless payments in the U.S. still take place by       signing little chits of paper; it\u2019s difficult to reconcile that with the       imminent arrival of digital currency wallets.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       We also see significant pushback from existing players in the financial       infrastructure. Last year, the two largest U.S. credit card networks       reported over $50 billion in revenues \u2013 which would be under immediate and       severe threat if a CBDC offered a free alternative.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       The broader banking system would not be immune from the impact of a CBDC.       At a minimum, we see a digital dollar raising funding costs for banks, as       zero-interest depositors would have no need to stay in the cumbersome       commercial banking system when the Fed offered an instant and free       alternative. If the Fed were to offer interest on deposits \u2013 broadening the       digital currency from a simple cash substitute to a digital money       supply \u2013 then the risk to banks increases exponentially. At that point, the       Fed would be a true competitor to deposit-taking and loan-making       institutions in their core businesses.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       In congressional testimony on CBDCs in 2022, CEOs of large banks were       ambivalent-to-negative, mainly couching criticism on practical grounds.       Given the stakes to the well-heeled and politically astute financial       players, we would expect much more significant pushback if a digital       dollar ever moved closer to reality.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">       Geography heavily influences financial professionals&#8217; support for a CBDC     <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Percentage of respondents in favour of launching a CBDC<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"row mb-4 migrated\">       <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">         <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2023\/08\/central-bank-digital-currency-en-chart-4.png\" alt=\"Chartered Financial Analysts\u2019 support for CBDC based on geography\" class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\" \/>         <p           class=\"sr-only\"           id=\"chart4desc\"         >         Bar chart showing Chartered Financial Analysts\u2019 support for CBDC based on geography. CFA charterholders in China have the highest level of support at 70%, while in the U.S. only 31% favour launching CBDC. Additional geographies shown: Total Developed Markets: 37%; Canada: 38%; Overall Support: 42%; UK: 46%; Latin America: 56%; Middle East, North Africa: 60%; Total Emerging Markets: 61%; and India: 66%.         <\/p>         <p class=\"disclaimer\">           Source &#8211; RBC Wealth Management modification of a chart published in the 7\/26\/23 Reuters article, \u201cLimited support for central bank digital currencies in global investment industry survey.\u201d Data from CFA Institute; respondents were CFA charterholders.         <\/p>       <\/div>     <\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>       The bottom line is that between privacy, security, and lobbying, we see a       CBDC as a tough sell to the U.S. Congress.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Incremental, not transformative, technology<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>       Rather than fully transition to a CBDC, we expect the Fed and most other       central banks to take a more measured approach, closely integrating       technology to achieve efficiency but operating in parallel with existing       payment structures.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       Take, for instance, FedNow, a new real-time payments system created by the       Federal Reserve. Like a CBDC, the system allows immediate, electronic       settlement, but, critically, it operates between depository institutions.       The limited scope reduces security concerns, while competitive forces       should eventually bring FedNow\u2019s time and cost savings to individual       customers. This private-public hybrid approach, in our view, is both       better and more likely to occur.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       The case for a CBDC is also weakened by the rise of large, global       commercial banks. Many of the benefits of centralising payments are       already occurring, as trade between multinational companies is often       settled at one of the dozens of truly global banks. These banking services       are not free, but they have the potential to deliver many of the       efficiencies provided by a CBDC without the baggage of centralised       control.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       We think the Fed is likely to continue studying a digital dollar and       running pilot programmes. It would be unwise not to since the dollar\u2019s       preeminent role in trade may someday require a digital currency. We       believe the Fed may even launch something it calls a digital dollar, even       if in practice it\u2019s just a check-the-box exercise to show the U.S. also       has the latest shiny new toy.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Central banks move forward, slowly, with CBDCs<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Number of CBDC projects by stage of development<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"row mb-4 migrated\">       <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">         <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/9\/2023\/08\/central-bank-digital-currency-en-chart-5.png\" alt=\"Number of CBDC projects by stage of development\" class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\" \/>         <p           class=\"sr-only\"           id=\"chart5desc\"         >         Area chart tracking the evolution of central bank actions on CBDC. In 2015, there were only two central banks active in CBDC, but by 2022, over 135 CBDC projects were active, with 92 of these being in the research phase, with the balance in proof of concept, pilot, or already launched.           <\/p>         <ul class=\"rbc-legend rbc-legend-inline\">           <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">             <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar c-warm-yellow\"><\/div>             Research           <\/li>           <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">             <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar c-blue-tint-1\"><\/div>             Proof of concept           <\/li>           <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">             <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar c-apple\"><\/div>             Pilot           <\/li>           <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">             <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar c-dark-blue-tint-1\"><\/div>             Launched           <\/li>           <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">             <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar c-carbon\"><\/div>             Canceled           <\/li>         <\/ul>         <p class=\"disclaimer\">           Source &#8211; CBDCTracker.org, International Monetary Fund, RBC Wealth           Management         <\/p>       <\/div>     <\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>       Realistically, however, we see physical currency and individual deposit       accounts at commercial banks at the center of the U.S. system for the       foreseeable future.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">China in the lead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>       Unlike the U.S., China has been a leader in the digital currency field,       rolling out the digital yuan, also known as e-CNY, and actively       encouraging its use. The Chinese have implemented several interesting       twists on the CBDC concept. First, the e-CNY pays no interest, making it       much more of a pure cash substitute than other CBDCs under discussion that       allow for interest payments. In addition, the use of e-CNY is voluntary       and intermediated through large banks. These differences seek to reduce       the impact of the digital yuan on the traditional banking system, but they       also can reduce many of the potential efficiencies.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       Uptake for e-CNY has been limited, with officials reporting less than 0.2       percent of cash has shifted into the digital format. One of the main       problems for e-CNY, in our view, is the prevalence, quality, and       integration of the existing digital payment platforms. Private sector       mobile payments in China go back nearly 20 years, and the two major       players control 90 percent of the country\u2019s digital payments market. The       e-CNY has been growing, but the private-sector alternatives are already       low-cost and embedded in the user\u2019s digital life. One advantage of e-CNY       is its ability to function when a user is offline, a key differentiator in       remote areas or during natural disasters, but one that has yet to       translate into broad usage of the digital yuan.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       In essence, China has so far been taking an incremental approach, similar       to what we see the Fed doing. The difference is that the Chinese are       relying on the structure of the e-CNY to limit its potential as a       surrogate for the broader banking system, while we see the Fed eschewing       the concept of a digital dollar, at least for the near future.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       China continues to push forward on the use of CBDCs for international       trade. The most recent step has been the launch of mBridge, a fully       digital trade settlement platform involving China, Thailand, the United       Arab Emirates, and Hong Kong. The infrastructure is important, but we see       limited uptake until the more widely held currencies such as the euro or       the U.S. dollar are in the system. The benefits of CBDC settlement are not       going to be sufficient, in our view, to shift investor and corporate       preferences around currency exposure.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Small steps on a long road<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>       Central bank digital currencies, in some form, are likely to be adopted by       an increasing number of countries. Nations with a high percentage of       electronic payments, or a relatively concentrated and small banking       system, may find it easier to introduce some form of a CBDC. In time,       these countries or others may realise the efficiency potential of central       bank digital currency in a secure format. For now, however, we believe       CBDCs should be viewed as an adjunct to existing payment and banking       systems. We see evolution, not revolution.     <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As more central banks explore digital currencies, we examine the advantages and drawbacks, and argue the likely result is technological evolution, not revolution.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":8257,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2023-08-29 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