{"id":14535,"date":"2024-07-10T21:15:00","date_gmt":"2024-07-10T21:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-ie\/?p=14535"},"modified":"2026-06-10T21:51:22","modified_gmt":"2026-06-10T21:51:22","slug":"durability-and-data","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-ie\/insights\/durability-and-data","title":{"rendered":"Durability and data"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2023\/11\/RBC-BD-Ireland_Insights_Durability-and-Data_July-2024.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download Durability and data 2024 PDF<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-vimeo wp-block-embed-vimeo wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Durability and Data\" src=\"https:\/\/player.vimeo.com\/video\/981156168?h=51e89ee1ee&amp;dnt=1&amp;app_id=122963\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"autoplay; fullscreen; picture-in-picture; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-is-ai-still-leading-the-way\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Is AI still leading the way?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Over the past year AI has really captured the imagination of investors and the wallets of \u2018Big Tech\u2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The level of capital expenditure being spent by the large technology companies and the cash flow accruing to semiconductor companies is truly remarkable, and we\u2019ve been keen to participate in the \u2018gold rush\u2019, owning semiconductor equipment companies or equity strategies invested in the beneficiaries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, after a period of very strong gains from leading technology businesses, and with over half of the U.S. market\u2019s gain this year attributable to the performance<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>of just five companies, maybe it\u2019s time to question the sustainability of this trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-a-lesson-from-history\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">A lesson from history<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>To help us with this analysis, we can look at history and some excellent work carried out by Empirical Research Partners. While we should always caveat historical market studies, since 1952 we can identify nine years where market gains have been as concentrated as this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, what happened next?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In subsequent years the average market gain was around 12%, with only two \u2018down\u2019 years. Of course, averages only tell you so much and one of the \u2018down\u2019 years was 2008, which was pretty harrowing.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The point of sharing this data is to challenge the view that we\u2019re in the midst of a bubble and that this year\u2019s \u2018narrow\u2019 market is a precursor to a major decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While parts of the market currently look a little expensive, we don\u2019t see the type of market behaviour or valuation extremes that have characterised market bubbles in the past. What\u2019s more interesting is after historical periods<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>of market concentration, we often see better relative performance from those who have previously lagged. Perhaps next year we could see a reversal in fortunes for companies outside of the mega caps?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With that said, it\u2019s important to recognise that a number of the market leaders today are the most profitable companies in history, and earnings growth has been the major driver of their returns. Food for thought.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-the-decade-of-the-semiconductor\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">The decade of the semiconductor<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>While we certainly do not proclaim to be experts in AI, there is little doubt in our minds that we are seeing some profound advances in computing, and this will<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>have a major impact on the economy and markets over the next decade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As noted above, the immediate \u2018winners\u2019 of AI investment have been semiconductor companies and we\u2019ve seen valuations expand across the sector.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The leading semiconductor companies are incredible, achieving mind-blowing advances in chip design, and it\u2019s likely they\u2019ll continue to deliver record profits in the year ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, we should remember that semiconductor capital expenditure is cyclical and while we may be in the middle of a semiconductor \u2018arms race\u2019 right now, there will be bumps along the road and after such a strong period of outperformance it\u2019s important to recognise this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-where-do-we-go-from-here\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Where do we go from here?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>This brings me back to the title of this note, \u2018durability and data\u2019. We\u2019ve been considering for some time how we position portfolios for AI \u2013 how do we protect and grow portfolios during a period of potentially great change?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is, of course, a challenging question. Investing in the winners sounds attractive, but supernormal<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>profits attract competition and investing in high-growth businesses is, on average, a losing game with most failing to meet lofty expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Perhaps rather than trying to identify the new vanguard of technology winners, we should think about businesses that will benefit from AI or those that will endure and prosper in most scenarios.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-what-does-durability-and-data-mean\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">What does \u2018durability and data\u2019 mean?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Let\u2019s look at \u2018durability\u2019 first. Investing in durable assets is central to our approach, we are long-term investors,<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>and we want to invest in assets that can generate returns above inflation, for as long as possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Strong brands are, to our minds, the epitome of durability, especially luxury, aspirational brands, like Ferrari or Christion Dior. You simply cannot recreate these brands, they are not disruptable in our view.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>True luxury brands have fantastic pricing power and will likely generate cash flow for their shareholders for decades to come. As you would expect, these companies aren\u2019t cheap, and we need to assess our<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>prospective returns, but as businesses they represent what we like to invest in. They are also likely beneficiaries of AI, in a way that may not seem immediately obvious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>History tells us that technology breakthroughs create wealth, and any number of social studies will tell you that humans like to demonstrate their wealth by purchasing expensive items.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This may seem like a superficial point, but it\u2019s inherent to our nature, and we see a bright future for truly luxury brands.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Our other area of focus is \u2018data\u2019. We believe that businesses that have proprietary data are well positioned for advances in AI.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s quite possible that AI \u2018tools\u2019 become commoditised, resulting in underwhelming returns for the companies that appear initial winners.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It may well be that better economics accrue for those companies that are best positioned to utilise new technologies. We believe that companies with large datasets will be able to apply AI tools to their data and generate greater insight for their customers, ultimately resulting in higher value customer relationships.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Our preferred data companies will also likely have the potential for margin improvement, as they automate more of their processes with AI tools. The payments businesses, rating agencies and some of the large tech businesses strike us as \u2018data winners\u2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-reacting-to-ai-developments-is-key\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Reacting to AI developments is key<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>While the current advances will clearly present challenges, most notably job disruption and displacement, we believe we should be optimistic about the potential wealth creation from these technological developments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Of course, how this wealth is distributed will be an important question for society and policy makers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>From an investing perspective, at a time of increased geopolitical concern, it\u2019s uplifting to consider the scenario of higher productivity, growth and real wages that advances in AI could catalyse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Our key role is, of course, to protect and grow wealth, and this might naturally lead us away from investing in perceived risky areas, like AI, and to be clear we are conservative investors. However, it is incumbent on us to think deeply about what is happening right now and what the impact may be.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Focussing on \u2018durability and data\u2019 seems like the most sensible way to express a positive view on advances in AI, identifying businesses and strategies that should deliver satisfactory returns in most scenarios.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While this is unlikely to be the most exciting article you read about AI this year, we hope it gives you some insight into our thinking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As ever, if you would like to discuss our views further, please do not hesitate to contact us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Ian Quigley<\/strong><br>T:&nbsp;<a href=\"tel:+353%201%202600080\">+353 1 2600080<\/a><br>E:&nbsp;<a href=\"mailto:ian.quigley@brewin.ie\">ian.quigley@brewin.ie<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Disclaimer<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Brewin Dolphin Wealth Management Limited trading as RBC Brewin Dolphin is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. For UK clients only: RBC Brewin Dolphin is deemed authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. The nature and extent of consumer protections may differ from those for firms based in the UK. Details of the Financial Services Contracts Regime, which allows EEA-based firms to operate in the UK for a limited period to carry on activities which are necessary for the performance of pre-existing contracts, are available on the Financial Conduct Authority\u2019s website. Registered office: Number One Ballsbridge, Building 1, Shelbourne Road, Dublin 4, D04 FP65. Registered in Dublin, Ireland No. 235126.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This publication should be regarded as being for information only and should not be considered as an offer or solicitation to sell, buy or subscribe to any financial instruments, securities or any derivative instrument, or any other rights pertaining thereto (together, \u2018investments\u2019). This publication is classified as a \u2018marketing communication\u2019 in accordance with the European Union (Markets in Financial Instruments) Regulations 2017. This means that (a) it has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and (b) it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. RBC Brewin Dolphin does not express any opinion as to the present or future value or price of any investments referred to in this publication. This publication may not be reproduced without the consent of RBC Brewin Dolphin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The information contained in this publication has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but, neither RBC Brewin Dolphin, nor any of its directors, officers, or employees accept liability for any loss arising from the use hereof or makes any representations as to its accuracy and completeness. The information contained in this publication is valid as at the date of this publication. This information is subject to change without notice, its accuracy is not guaranteed, it may be incomplete or condensed and it may not contain all material information concerning the matters discussed herein.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This publication does not constitute investment advice and has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstances, objectives or particular needs of recipients. Readers should seek their own financial, tax, legal, regulatory and other advice regarding the appropriateness or otherwise of investing in any investments or pursuing any investment strategies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>An investment in any of the investments discussed in this publication may result in some or all of the money invested being lost. Past performance is not a reliable guide to future performance. To the extent that this publication is deemed to contain any forecasts as to the performance of any investments, the reader is warned that forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance. The value of any investments can fall as well as rise. Foreign currency denominated investments are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that may have a positive or adverse effect on the value, price or income of such investments. Certain transactions, including those involving futures, options and other derivative instruments, can give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>RBC Brewin Dolphin (or its directors, officers or employees) may to the extent permitted by law, own or have a position in the investments (including derivative instruments or any other rights pertaining thereto) of any issuer or related company referred to herein, and may add to or dispose of any such position or may make a market or act as a principal in any transaction in such investments or financial transactions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>RBC Brewin Dolphin\u2019s conflicts of interest policy is available at&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.brewin.ie\/conflicts-policy-summary\" data-type=\"page\" data-id=\"271\">www.brewin.ie\/conflicts-policy-summary<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"width:100%;border:1px solid #333333;padding:10px\">Warning: The value of your investment may go down as well as up. You may get back less than you invest.<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"width:100%;border:1px solid #333333;padding:10px\">Warning: Past performance is not a reliable guide to future performance.<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"width:100%;border:1px solid #333333;padding:10px\">Warning: If you invest in this product you may lose some or all of the money you invest.<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"width:100%;border:1px solid #333333;padding:10px\">Warning: This product \/ service may be affected by changes in currency exchange rates.<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"width:100%;border:1px solid #333333;padding:10px\">Warning: The income you get from this investment may go down as well as up.<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ian Quigley, Head of Investment Strategy, reflects on recent market strength, the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), and how we\u2019re thinking about potential AI \u2018winners\u2019.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":142,"featured_media":14537,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcbd_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcbd_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[54,55],"tags":[],"rbcwm_content_owner":[],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[47,48,49,46,51,50],"rbcwm_solution":[61],"rbcwm_topic":[63],"rbcwm_channel":[6],"rbcwm_format":[42,67],"class_list":["post-14535","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ai","category-market-commentary","rbcwm_segment-business-owners","rbcwm_segment-corporate-execs","rbcwm_segment-family-offices","rbcwm_segment-individuals","rbcwm_segment-intermediaries","rbcwm_segment-international-individuals","rbcwm_solution-investments","rbcwm_topic-wealth-planning","rbcwm_channel-individuals","rbcwm_format-article","rbcwm_format-video"],"acf":{"rbc_ct_service":"","rbc_ct_theme":false,"rbc_ct_topic":false,"rbcwm_subtitle":"Ian Quigley, Head of Investment Strategy, reflects on recent market strength, the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), and how we\u2019re thinking about potential AI \u2018winners\u2019.","rbcwm_post_author":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":"","perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":"","disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":"","rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.5 (Yoast SEO v27.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Durability and data &#8211; RBC Wealth Management Ireland<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Ian Quigley, Head of Investment Strategy, reflects on recent market strength, the 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