{"id":14539,"date":"2024-11-21T21:19:00","date_gmt":"2024-11-21T21:19:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-ie\/?p=14539"},"modified":"2026-05-27T21:44:11","modified_gmt":"2026-05-27T21:44:11","slug":"investment-conference-reflections-2024-us-election-outcome","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-ie\/insights\/investment-conference-reflections-2024-us-election-outcome","title":{"rendered":"Investment conference reflections 2024 &amp; US election outcome"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2023\/11\/RBC-Brewin-Dolphin-Insights_-Annual-conference-reflections_US-Election-outcome_November-2024-1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download Investment conference reflections 2024 &amp; US election outcome PDF<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-vimeo wp-block-embed-vimeo wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Investment conference reflections 2024 &amp; US election outcome\" src=\"https:\/\/player.vimeo.com\/video\/1031172637?h=e1cbb58802&amp;dnt=1&amp;app_id=122963\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"autoplay; fullscreen; picture-in-picture; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Ian Quigley, Head of Investment Strategy shares his highlights from this year\u2019s investment conference, from extraordinary market trends to the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This year\u2019s investment conference was held on 2 October, and we had the pleasure of welcoming to the stage our colleagues Davina Rich, RBC Brewin Dolphin\u2019s Head of Research, and Nishad Subramaniam, Senior Equity Analyst covering Semiconductors and Industrials.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-an-exceptional-time-for-the-markets\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">An exceptional time for the markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The conference started with a discussion on how the last two-years have been an extraordinary period for markets, with the economy digesting a rapid rise in interest rates and the more recent excitement around AI.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We\u2019ve seen a definite advantage in approaching markets from a position of \u2018pragmatic optimism\u2019, and the last couple of years, once again, reminded us of the benefits of such a disposition. While we\u2019ll inevitably have to endure difficult markets, over time there\u2019s undoubtedly a significant reward for being invested in equities that have good shareholder protection and alignment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking back at late 2022 and early 2023, the financial media suggested the economy was most certainly going to experience a recession and I examined why this hasn\u2019t happened, at least thus far.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I also discussed the highly unusual economic cycle, which has been heavily impacted by the post-covid economic re-opening, and why the odds for a soft landing were always higher than most had thought. Historically central banks haven\u2019t been able to get inflation back to target from the elevated levels of 2022\/23 without a recession, however it was too simplistic to apply historical analogues to this cycle.&nbsp; &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Shutting down the global economy, while cutting interest rates to zero, supporting people via massive fiscal transfers, and then re-opening the economy within a two-year window is clearly without precedent. So, making definitive predictions was always folly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Since peaking in early 2022, at around 3%, long-term inflation expectations in the U.S. had been trending lower, as the log jam caused by the post-covid supply chain was resolved. At no point did this cycle look like the historic periods of the runaway inflation we saw in the 1970s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The good news is, it now looks like inflation is under control and the global economy is continuing to grow, at a slow but reasonable pace, i.e. a soft landing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We don\u2019t like to play the guessing game of future predictions, however historically when the majority of central banks are cutting rates and the economy hasn\u2019t been in recession, we\u2019ve seen pretty strong markets. Balancing against this supportive backdrop, overall market valuations aren\u2019t especially \u2018cheap\u2019, &nbsp;I described them as \u2018fair\u2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We also discussed heightened political risk and the potential for market volatility. However, I emphasised that we don\u2019t believe in making material portfolio changes ahead of elections, as we don\u2019t know the outcome or, indeed, how markets will react to any given outcome.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The election has, of course, now happened and the market reaction has been quite strong, with some clear initial winners and losers from a Trump presidency.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Companies perceived to benefit from lower taxes and de-regulation have seen a very strong share price reaction. In contrast, the share prices of global multinationals that sell into the U.S. have been quite weak, as the market anticipates tariffs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With the Republicans projected to win a majority in the House of Representatives, as well as the Senate, the U.S. electorate has given the Trump presidency a clear mandate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the short term, this outcome has led to a significant outperformance of U.S. equity markets relative to others, and this seems like a rational response.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Of course, much is to be determined, and we don\u2019t know at this stage what the ultimate impact will be and whether Trump will achieve his policy goals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No doubt there will be plenty of volatility in the months ahead and we may return to the headline reactive environment we saw during Trump\u2019s first presidency.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While it might sound trite, we genuinely believe that the best form of protection against market volatility is to own higher quality assets with a long-term time horizon and this will remain our focus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-the-rapid-growth-in-ai-s-popularity\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">The rapid growth in AI\u2019s popularity<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Returning to the conference, AI, with its technological advances and rapid pace of adoption, was another topic for discussion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A recent research paper by the National Bureau of Economic Research in the U.S. showed that 39% of the U.S. population age 18-64 have used generative AI tools, like ChatGPT and Microsoft Copilot, with nearly a quarter of the population using these tools weekly. This pace of adoption is running significantly higher than the rate of adoption we saw with PCs in the late 1980s, and the internet in the late 1990s. AI has a far steeper initial adoption curve as illustrated below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brewin.ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/13\/2024\/11\/Ireland-Insight-image.png?w=892\" alt=\"Adoption rates of major technology innovations\" class=\"wp-image-3601\" style=\"width:1000px;height:auto\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Empirical Research Partners and Bick, A., Blandin A. and David J. Deming, 2024 \u2013 \u201cThe Rapid Adoption of Generative AI,\u201d NBER Working Paper 32966<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This rapid pace of adoption is largely due to the fact we can all easily access generative AI tools, via our phones or PCs. It\u2019s much more accessible than the PC or internet were at the same stage of their development.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If we consider this alongside the massive amount of capital being invested by the large U.S. cloud computing giants, we may well be on the cusp of some pretty big changes right across industries, and we need to think about how our companies might adapt to this change in environment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-how-we-re-reacting\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">How we\u2019re reacting<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Davina discussed our focus on identifying and investing in high quality businesses that can prosper in differing economic environments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nishad then took the audience through advances in computing and AI, demystifying the AI value chain and discussing the companies that are central to the advances we are seeing today. These companies range from the leading semiconductor companies, supplying the \u2018picks and shovels\u2019 for the AI goldrush, to the software companies that are deploying AI tools in their businesses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nishad illustrated the truly gargantuan expenditure of the big cloud computing giants on building out their AI capabilities, with their prodigious cash flows funding their capital expenditure (CapEx) plans. It\u2019s quite clear that the leading U.S. technology companies have committed to investing in AI and while we might debate the ultimate return they\u2019ll generate on this investment, we shouldn\u2019t doubt their intent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There\u2019s no doubt the sector has attracted some hype over the past year. Nishad discussed multiple use cases for AI technology and how many industries were still early in the adoption curve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To conclude his presentation, he quoted Bill Gates, noting that \u201c<em>we always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There is little doubt in our minds that we need to understand the ramifications of potentially profound changes in technology, and we are fortunate to have an equity team focussed on the right things, asking which companies can survive and prosper in a changing economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As an example, our increased emphasis on investing in companies that have proprietary datasets is a direct result of our debate over which businesses can best leverage and benefit from advances in AI.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-the-importance-of-quality-research\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">The importance of quality research<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Davina talked in more detail about RBC Brewin Dolphin\u2019s approach to research, outlining the resources we have and the depth of experience within the team. She also spent some time discussing the key drivers of shareholder returns, how well-run businesses, in growth markets, outperform over time, and how important it is for the research team and the companies we invest in to have a growth mindset.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>She expanded further on this topic by discussing the crucial role of capital deployment and how successful companies can invest capital at higher rates and deliver growing shareholder value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Investing in high quality businesses is central to our approach and Davina expanded on what this means for RBC Brewin Dolphin, discussing how the team reviews external factors, like the industry the companies operate in, as well as internal factors, such as culture and management. Valuation and risk factors are considered as part of the process, as we endeavour to buy high quality businesses at reasonable prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-in-conclusion\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">In conclusion\u2026<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>I may be biased, but I think this year\u2019s conference was one of our most engaging yet, demonstrating the scale of resource we have.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With the U.S. election now passed, we\u2019re also thinking through the implications and while we don\u2019t envisage making major changes to portfolios as a result of the outcome, we are considering the potential longer term impacts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Our goal, as ever, is to protect and grow clients\u2019 capital and we\u2019re convinced that having an optimistic lens on the world with a focus on ideas, and with an experienced research team asking the right questions is the right way to approach this challenge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As ever, if you would like to discuss our views further, please do not hesitate to contact us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Ian Quigley<\/strong><br>T:&nbsp;<a href=\"tel:+353%201%202600080\">+353 1 2600080<\/a><br>E:&nbsp;<a href=\"mailto:ian.quigley@brewin.ie\">ian.quigley@brewin.ie<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Disclaimer<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Brewin Dolphin Wealth Management Limited trading as RBC Brewin Dolphin is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. For UK clients only: RBC Brewin Dolphin is deemed authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. The nature and extent of consumer protections may differ from those for firms based in the UK. Details of the Financial Services Contracts Regime, which allows EEA-based firms to operate in the UK for a limited period to carry on activities which are necessary for the performance of pre-existing contracts, are available on the Financial Conduct Authority\u2019s website. Registered office: Number One Ballsbridge, Building 1, Shelbourne Road, Dublin 4, D04 FP65. Registered in Dublin, Ireland No. 235126.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This publication should be regarded as being for information only and should not be considered as an offer or solicitation to sell, buy or subscribe to any financial instruments, securities or any derivative instrument, or any other rights pertaining thereto (together, \u2018investments\u2019). This publication is classified as a \u2018marketing communication\u2019 in accordance with the European Union (Markets in Financial Instruments) Regulations 2017. This means that (a) it has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and (b) it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. RBC Brewin Dolphin does not express any opinion as to the present or future value or price of any investments referred to in this publication. This publication may not be reproduced without the consent of RBC Brewin Dolphin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The information contained in this publication has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but, neither RBC Brewin Dolphin, nor any of its directors, officers, or employees accept liability for any loss arising from the use hereof or makes any representations as to its accuracy and completeness. The information contained in this publication is valid as at the date of this publication. This information is subject to change without notice, its accuracy is not guaranteed, it may be incomplete or condensed and it may not contain all material information concerning the matters discussed herein.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This publication does not constitute investment advice and has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstances, objectives or particular needs of recipients. Readers should seek their own financial, tax, legal, regulatory and other advice regarding the appropriateness or otherwise of investing in any investments or pursuing any investment strategies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>An investment in any of the investments discussed in this publication may result in some or all of the money invested being lost. Past performance is not a reliable guide to future performance. To the extent that this publication is deemed to contain any forecasts as to the performance of any investments, the reader is warned that forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance. The value of any investments can fall as well as rise. Foreign currency denominated investments are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that may have a positive or adverse effect on the value, price or income of such investments. Certain transactions, including those involving futures, options and other derivative instruments, can give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>RBC Brewin Dolphin (or its directors, officers or employees) may to the extent permitted by law, own or have a position in the investments (including derivative instruments or any other rights pertaining thereto) of any issuer or related company referred to herein, and may add to or dispose of any such position or may make a market or act as a principal in any transaction in such investments or financial transactions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>RBC Brewin Dolphin\u2019s conflicts of interest policy is available at&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.brewin.ie\/conflicts-policy-summary\" data-type=\"page\" data-id=\"271\">www.brewin.ie\/conflicts-policy-summary<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"width:100%;border:1px solid #333333;padding:10px\">Warning: The value of your investment may go down as well as up. You may get back less than you invest.<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"width:100%;border:1px solid #333333;padding:10px\">Warning: Past performance is not a reliable guide to future performance.<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"width:100%;border:1px solid #333333;padding:10px\">Warning: If you invest in this product you may lose some or all of the money you invest.<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"width:100%;border:1px solid #333333;padding:10px\">Warning: This product \/ service may be affected by changes in currency exchange rates.<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"width:100%;border:1px solid #333333;padding:10px\">Warning: The income you get from this investment may go down as well as up.<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ian Quigley, Head of Investment Strategy shares his highlights from this year\u2019s investment conference, from extraordinary market trends to the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":142,"featured_media":14541,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcbd_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcbd_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[55],"tags":[],"rbcwm_content_owner":[],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[47,48,49,46,51,50],"rbcwm_solution":[61],"rbcwm_topic":[43],"rbcwm_channel":[6],"rbcwm_format":[42,67],"class_list":["post-14539","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-commentary","rbcwm_segment-business-owners","rbcwm_segment-corporate-execs","rbcwm_segment-family-offices","rbcwm_segment-individuals","rbcwm_segment-intermediaries","rbcwm_segment-international-individuals","rbcwm_solution-investments","rbcwm_topic-market-analysis","rbcwm_channel-individuals","rbcwm_format-article","rbcwm_format-video"],"acf":{"rbc_ct_service":"","rbc_ct_theme":false,"rbc_ct_topic":false,"rbcwm_subtitle":"Ian Quigley, Head of Investment Strategy shares his highlights from this year\u2019s investment conference, from extraordinary market trends to the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution.","rbcwm_post_author":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":"","perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":"","disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":"","rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.5 (Yoast SEO v27.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Investment conference reflections 2024 &amp; US election outcome &#8211; RBC Wealth Management Ireland<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Ian Quigley, Head of Investment 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