{"id":23108,"date":"2026-03-03T16:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-03T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-uk\/insights\/markets-in-a-minute\/"},"modified":"2026-09-02T16:11:58","modified_gmt":"2026-09-02T16:11:58","slug":"markets-in-a-minute","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-uk\/insights\/markets-in-a-minute","title":{"rendered":"Two forces moving markets: earnings and yields"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"wp-block-rbcwm-rbc-block rbc-block\"><div class=\"container\"><div class=\"row \"><div class=\"col-lg-12\">\n<div class=\"well b-blue-tint-4 mb-3\">\n<h2>Key highlights<\/h2>\n      <ul class=\"list-spaced\">\n        <li>\n          <strong> Nvidia results: <\/strong> Quarterly revenue nearly doubled year-on-year, with a first-ever full-year forward guidance of 70% growth. \n<\/li>\n        <li>\n          <strong>AI valuations: <\/strong> U.S. equity valuations exceed 1929 levels, but context and profit growth matter. \n        <\/li>\n<li>\n          <strong>Restoring credibility <\/strong> Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh confirmed the central bank\u2019s commitment to controlling inflation with higher interest rates, weighing on gold.\n        <\/li>\n      <\/ul>\n    <\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-vimeo wp-block-embed-vimeo wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Markets in a Minute - 2 September 2026\" src=\"https:\/\/player.vimeo.com\/video\/1223306263?dnt=1&amp;app_id=122963\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"autoplay; fullscreen; picture-in-picture; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/wme\/uk\/RBC-Brewin-Dolphin-Markets-in-a-Minute.pdf\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/wme\/uk\/RBC-Brewin-Dolphin-Markets-in-a-Minute.pdf\" class=\"link-cta link-download\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Download Markets in a Minute<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-the-week-markets-bet-on-calm-and-mostly-won\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">The week markets bet on calm \u2013 and mostly won<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2052\" height=\"1273\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/U.S.-valuations-are-close-to-their-historic-highs-by-some-measures-V2.png\" alt=\"U.S. valuations are close to their historic highs by some measures\" class=\"wp-image-59481\" style=\"width:800px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/U.S.-valuations-are-close-to-their-historic-highs-by-some-measures-V2.png 2052w, https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/U.S.-valuations-are-close-to-their-historic-highs-by-some-measures-V2.png?resize=300,186 300w, https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/U.S.-valuations-are-close-to-their-historic-highs-by-some-measures-V2.png?resize=768,476 768w, https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/U.S.-valuations-are-close-to-their-historic-highs-by-some-measures-V2.png?resize=1024,635 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/U.S.-valuations-are-close-to-their-historic-highs-by-some-measures-V2.png?resize=1536,953 1536w, https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/U.S.-valuations-are-close-to-their-historic-highs-by-some-measures-V2.png?resize=2048,1271 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2052px) 100vw, 2052px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Source: LSEG<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Last week saw Nvidia reporting earnings, which effectively lowers the curtain on the second-quarter earnings season. That means fewer obvious catalysts for uplifts until October, when third-quarter numbers begin to arrive. So, while the flow of corporate news ebbs, the controversies that remain are over what appear to be objectively high valuations and unproven business models.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For some time, market milestones have invited comparisons with valuations of the past. Over the summer, the Financial Times observed that U.S. equity valuations now sit higher than in September 1929, surpassed only by the peak of the dot-com bubble. It&#8217;s a comparison that demands respect, and we take the underlying caution seriously. But context matters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The metric being cited is the analytically useful, cyclically adjusted price\/earnings (CAPE) ratio, which measures the real price over the 10-year average adjusted earnings (with both price and earnings adjusted for inflation). While U.S. valuations have only reached today\u2019s levels once before, during the tech bubble, there\u2019s still a further 26% upside to the peak they eventually reached. Look beyond the U.S., though, and valuations are far less stretched. Global equity valuations are dragged down by their weighting towards other regions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Anchoring to the tech bubble valuation peak is also unhelpful because the peak for equity valuations was neither in the U.S. nor in 1999, it was in 1989 Japan, when valuations reached multiples of the highest levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"639\" width=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/Excluding-the-U.S.-valuations-look-more-reasonable-and-have-been-much-higher.png?w=1024\" alt=\"Excluding the U.S., valuations look more reasonable and have been much higher\" class=\"wp-image-59460\" style=\"width:800px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/Excluding-the-U.S.-valuations-look-more-reasonable-and-have-been-much-higher.png 2040w, https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/Excluding-the-U.S.-valuations-look-more-reasonable-and-have-been-much-higher.png?resize=300,187 300w, https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/Excluding-the-U.S.-valuations-look-more-reasonable-and-have-been-much-higher.png?resize=768,480 768w, https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/Excluding-the-U.S.-valuations-look-more-reasonable-and-have-been-much-higher.png?resize=1024,639 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/Excluding-the-U.S.-valuations-look-more-reasonable-and-have-been-much-higher.png?resize=1536,959 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Source: LSEG<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The deeper point is that valuations are just numbers that need to be reconciled against the pace of profits growth, not just their level. In early 2000, the market&#8217;s largest company, Microsoft, briefly touched earnings growth near 80%. Today&#8217;s largest, Nvidia, has now enjoyed multiple years growing much faster than that. Its valuation seems high looking backwards, as CAPE does, but less than 20 times 2027 earnings doesn\u2019t seem demanding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Its results, announced last Wednesday night, were strong, with quarterly revenue close to doubling year-on-year and a first-ever full-year forward guidance of 70% growth, which is only that modest due to supply constraints.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-is-the-ai-trade-resting-on-shaky-foundations\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Is the AI trade resting on shaky foundations?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2061\" height=\"1310\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/Picture6.png\" alt=\"Is the AI trade resting on shaky foundations?\" class=\"wp-image-59465\" style=\"width:800px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/Picture6.png 2061w, https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/Picture6.png?resize=300,191 300w, https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/Picture6.png?resize=768,488 768w, https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/Picture6.png?resize=1024,651 1024w, https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/Picture6.png?resize=1536,976 1536w, https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/03\/Picture6.png?resize=2048,1302 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2061px) 100vw, 2061px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Source: OpenRouter<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The more interesting debate is subtler. The performance gap between the frontier AI labs \u2013 OpenAI, Anthropic \u2013 and cheaper open-weight models has narrowed sharply, from perhaps 12\u201318 months to as little as three to six. That threatens the labs&#8217; pricing power and they\u2019ve made vast spending commitments to the hyperscalers (large cloud providers) who host them. Microsoft alone carries roughly $281 billion of contracted backlog tied to OpenAI, part of a group total near $700 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So, it does make sense to wonder: what would the impact be if OpenAI and Anthropic found they couldn\u2019t charge premium prices for their premium product? How does this affect the hyperscalers? Our read is measured.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Microsoft&#8217;s Azure platform is deliberately model agnostic. With over 11,000 models available, its economics are driven by total utilisation rather than any single customer. If OpenAI stumbled, that capacity would be redistributed to the enterprise demand queuing behind it, after a digestion period. Reduced demand from the AI labs, or reduced demand because of gains in model efficiency, would enable hyperscalers to slow their capital expenditure (capex).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So, does the real risk lie with the recipients of that capex? Back to the likes of Nvidia, which may also be at risk from greater efficiency in custom silicon as well? It\u2019s a risk, but historical examples of this kind of technology show that efficiency gains tend to unleash more demand than they destroy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Jevons\u2019 paradox noted that as steam engines became more efficient, rather than reducing coal demand, they increased it because steam became a much more accessible technology. So far, that pattern seems to be holding for AI too. For Nvidia, cheaper open-weight models running on its highly flexible platform are a tailwind, not a threat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-restoring-credibility\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Restoring credibility<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It\u2019s an open secret that public officials don\u2019t always end up keeping their promises, but it feels like recent years have seen an unusual amount of policy flexibility. The UK\u2019s debate over what increased taxes might mean for working people contributed to the change of its government. The U.S. plan to end military interventions has seen it mired in war in the Middle East.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Central bankers are assumed to be immune from the political pressures that lead to policy flexibility, but they can\u2019t escape the financial pressures. So, inflation remaining persistently above target and governments delivering persistent budget deficits have created concerns that monetary policy is being directed at eroding debt burdens rather than managing inflation, a state known as fiscal dominance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The relatively new Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair, Kevin Warsh, had the job of rebutting such concerns at last week\u2019s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. He did so forcefully, acknowledging that inflation hasn\u2019t meaningfully slowed and that the Fed has work to do. He reiterated the inflation target, said that short-term interest rates are the primary policy tool and acknowledged that the economy had strengthened. Without explicitly offering guidance, he gave the distinct impression that a rate hike was likely in mid-September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That prospect saw a strong U.S. dollar and weaker bonds as Warsh affirmed the Fed\u2019s commitment to controlling inflation with higher interest rates. That weighed on gold as it indicated the Fed won\u2019t facilitate further inflating away national debt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, a lot could happen this week to tip the scales for or against a rate hike. A host of jobs data will come in on Friday \u2013 including the non-farm payrolls report, which was surprisingly downbeat last month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-coming-up\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Coming up<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Jobs news: <\/strong>If Friday\u2019s employment report shows a rebound, interest rate hikes could be back on the agenda.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Global PMIs: <\/strong>Provisional purchasing managers\u2019 indexes showed modest momentum loss in an ongoing expansion, but full data will provide more detail.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Question time: <\/strong>The UK prime minister faces his first prime minister\u2019s questions, riding a poll bounce.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The value of investments, and any income from them, can fall and you may get back less than you invested. Neither simulated nor actual past performance are reliable indicators of future performance. Investment values may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations. Information is provided only as an example and is not a recommendation to pursue a particular strategy. Information contained in this document is believed to be reliable and accurate, but without further investigation cannot be warranted as to accuracy or completeness. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance. We or a connected person may have positions in or options on the securities mentioned herein or may buy, sell or offer to make a purchase or sale of such securities from time to time. For further information, please refer to our conflicts policy which is available on request or can be accessed via our website at <a href=\"http:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\">www.rbcwealthmanagement.com<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nvidia\u2019s strong earnings results reinforced the AI investment theory, while soaring government bond yields brought renewed focus to inflation and interest rate risk.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":97,"featured_media":9670,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"templates\/guide.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2026-01-26T14:33:00","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcbd_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcbd_featured_mobile_image_position":"","footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[186],"tags":[],"rbcwm_content_owner":[],"rbcwm_need":[769],"rbcwm_segment":[773,792,772,776,775],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[756],"rbcwm_channel":[99,100],"rbcwm_format":[779],"class_list":["post-23108","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","rbcwm_need-secure","rbcwm_segment-business-owners","rbcwm_segment-corporate-executives","rbcwm_segment-individuals","rbcwm_segment-international-individuals","rbcwm_segment-family-offices","rbcwm_topic-market-analysis","rbcwm_channel-private-clients","rbcwm_channel-intermediaries","rbcwm_format-article"],"acf":{"rbc_ct_service":"s1","rbc_ct_theme":"s1_th4","rbc_ct_topic":"s1_th4_ta1","rbcwm_subtitle":"Nvidia\u2019s strong earnings results reinforced the AI investment theory, while soaring government bond yields brought renewed focus to inflation and interest rate risk.","rbcwm_post_author":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":"","perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":"","disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":"","rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":5,"rbcwm_enable_toc":false},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.5 (Yoast SEO v27.9) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Two forces moving markets: earnings and yields | RBC Wealth Management United Kingdom<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link 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