{"id":45395,"date":"2025-12-10T14:34:13","date_gmt":"2025-12-10T14:34:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-uk\/?p=45395"},"modified":"2026-05-26T18:16:21","modified_gmt":"2026-05-26T18:16:21","slug":"the-investors-guide-to-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-uk\/insights\/the-investors-guide-to-2026","title":{"rendered":"The investor&#8217;s guide to 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-uk\/our-people\/guy-foster\" class=\"border-bottom-0\">Guy Foster<\/a><br>Chief Strategist<br>RBC Brewin Dolphin<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"well b-blue-tint-4 mb-3\">\n<h2>Key highlights<\/h2>\n      <ul class=\"list-spaced\">\n        <li><strong>Equity momentum: <\/strong> Developed markets eye new highs as U.S. growth and monetary easing fuel returns, despite near-term volatility risks.<\/li>\n        <li><strong>Policy wildcards:<\/strong> U.S. fiscal drama and Fed shifts may spark volatility, yet economic resilience underpins market optimism.<\/li>\n <li><strong>All eyes on AI:<\/strong> Tech giants dominate indices with premium valuations, driven by AI innovation, though energy constraints and concerns over profitability linger.<\/li>\n <li><strong>UK opportunities:<\/strong> Undervalued UK equities and high-yield bonds offer diversification, supported by attractive valuations amid domestic headwinds. <\/li>\n      <\/ul>\n    <\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s been quite a year for markets. Now, as 2026 looms, minds naturally turn to what\u2019s next.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The good news? Historical trends suggest stock markets may continue to rise, helping to deliver positive returns for investors, but it\u2019s important to acknowledge that outcomes are inherently uncertain. After years of above-average gains, sustaining this momentum gets tougher. Still, history has shown that bull markets like this <em>can<\/em> endure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The economic backdrop remains supportive. However, while erratic U.S. policymaking may steady by the end of the year, the first half of 2026 could provide us with plenty of potential triggers for volatility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-uncle-sam-holds-the-key\">Uncle Sam holds the key<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The size, strength and dynamism of the U.S. economy means global equity performance really hinges on the country\u2019s economic trajectory. A recession, on the other hand, is usually associated with market declines \u2013 yet current indicators show few signs of an impending slowdown. Instead, the economy is enjoying self-sustaining growth and has several tailwinds ahead. Absent an economic shock, the prognosis seems to be good.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Beyond recession risks, valuations and modest growth forecasts call for tempered expectations for the coming year. It\u2019s important to retain an appropriate degree of market exposure though: markets naturally trend upwards and there are a number of helpful tailwinds, such as:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-post-shutdown-momentum\">Post-shutdown momentum<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>The economic rebound following the recent government shutdown should provide momentum entering the first quarter of 2026, assuming prolonged closure episodes don&#8217;t recur. Consumer sentiment, which deteriorated during the shutdown, should recover as policy uncertainty diminishes and furloughed workers receive retroactive back pay. The anticipated $50 billion increase in tax refunds from recently passed budget measures should further stimulate early-year spending. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-business-confidence-rising\">Business confidence rising<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Business confidence indicators offer encouraging signals. U.S. CEO surveys show growing proportions of companies planning to hire, increase wages, and invest.<a href=\"#_ftn1\" id=\"_ftnref1\">[1]<\/a> Importantly, small businesses &#8211; which account for approximately 80% of new job creation in the U.S. &#8211; have maintained optimism, with increasing numbers planning workforce expansion and capital expenditure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-interest-rate-tailwinds\"><strong>Interest rate tailwinds<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Interest rate cuts from late 2024 are still fuelling the economy today owing to the lagged effects of monetary easing. These benefits should persist through the first half of 2026, while more recent rate reductions should manifest as improved activity in the latter half of the year. Meanwhile, the majority of U.S. banks are lending more freely to consumers \u2013 which should boost spending and growth.<a href=\"#_ftn2\" id=\"_ftnref2\">[2]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-tax-breaks-stimulating-investment\"><strong>Tax breaks stimulating investment<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>New tax policies allow businesses to claim faster tax deductions on property and immediate tax breaks for research and development and equipment. This should accelerate investment, helping the economy grow a solid 2.2% in GDP terms (above the critical 2% threshold) before subsiding to 1.8% in 2027 and 2028.<a id=\"_ftnref3\" href=\"#_ftn3\">[3]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-risks-to-watch-out-for-in-2026\">Risks to watch out for in 2026<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite economic momentum taking us into the new year, there are several unresolved issues in the U.S. that seem set to keep the early part of 2026 interesting:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-shutdown-sequel\"><strong>Shutdown sequel? <\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>This year\u2019s government shutdown was ended by a deal which funds the government through to 30 January 2026. After that? The potential return of a partial government shutdown. This brings volatility to sectors which rely on government funding, such as defence contractors and government services firms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, it seems likely that a return to shutdown will be avoided because of the damage it does to politicians\u2019 popularity. If it does recur, expect volatility and attractive buying opportunities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-tariff-tremors\"><strong>Tariff tremors<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Watch for the Supreme Court\u2019s decision in <em>Learning Resources v. Trump<\/em>, expected in June 2026. This case tests President Trump\u2019s power to impose tariffs &#8211; a role reserved for Congress. Justices appear sceptical of claims the president can impose the measures to combat an emergency. A government loss could trigger a large tax refund, which would initially need to be funded by more government borrowing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-shake-up-at-the-fed\"><strong>Shake up at the Fed<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>President Trump\u2019s desire to reshape the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates suggests further upheaval may be imminent. He\u2019s already installed an adviser on the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) and is poised to replace Chair Jay Powell with another ally. His influence could expand further if the Supreme Court rules that President Trump has due cause to fire existing Governor, Lisa Cook, creating another vacancy. With two sitting governors known to be sympathetic to rate cuts, President Trump may soon control a significant bloc of the FOMC\u2019s 12 voting members. There\u2019s even a scenario in which he attempts to block the renomination of some regional Fed chairs to widen his grip, but this remains speculative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ultimately, these changes could make the FOMC more willing to risk inflation to support growth \u2013 a stance normally supportive of the equity market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For investors, dramatic policymaking from an activist government has been one of the hallmarks of 2025. This has challenged the economic consensus, forcing investors to rethink assumptions about free trade, central bank independence, and the need for governments to keep their debt in check. Yet we\u2019ve tended to see these big changes as secondary to the more seismic force of artificial intelligence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-are-we-in-an-ai-bubble\">Are we in an AI bubble?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Perhaps the trending question of the year\u2026 let\u2019s look at an answer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Today, eight of the top ten S&amp;P 500 companies are AI powerhouses. Together, they account for over 40% of the index\u2019s value and generate 35% of its profits. Valuations reflect this dominance: averaging 27x earnings (vs. the 18x long-term average).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Concerning? Yes &#8211; but they should be seen in context. Never have some of the largest companies been growing so fast and so profitably.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yet bubble warnings persist. Some companies, specifically those which have yet to make a profit, trade on valuations which seem very difficult to justify, which echoes the infamous technology bubble of the late 1990s and early 2000s. Unlike then, these seem to be outliers, not systemic mania.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Other concerns do exist, however. Of those announced, capital expenditure budgets for major AI developers exceed $400 billion next year. While profits have justified costs to date, critical constraints are emerging, most notably in the provision of electric power. Estimates suggest U.S. grids need a 20% capacity jump over five years &#8211; an ambitious (and unlikely) target. As a result, utilities facing capacity constraints are seeking substantial rate increases, which could squeeze corporate margins and household budgets, potentially sparking political backlash.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-where-does-the-uk-stand\">Where does the UK stand?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The UK market doesn\u2019t have the same tailwinds of growth and tax largesse as the U.S. But it\u2019s not <em>all<\/em> gloom and doom as we head into a new year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-growth-trundles-along\"><strong>Growth trundles along<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Tax increases imposed on businesses and households in 2025 are expected to constrain economic growth to just 1.2% in 2026, according to Bloomberg consensus forecasts &#8211; disappointing performance for a country that averaged 2% annual growth in the pre-pandemic decade. Although this is comparable to other G7 economies facing their own structural challenges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-political-headwinds\"><strong>Political headwinds<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Politically the UK is stable, but underlying fragility persists. The Labour government, elected by a landslide in 2024, has seen poll ratings collapse from 40% at the election, to just 21%. The biggest winner has been the Reform party. But with no election until 2029, any instability would likely come from within the Labour Party.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-markets-reward-prudence\"><strong>Markets reward prudence<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Some of that fragility was on show in the lead up to November\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-uk\/insights\/uk-autumn-budget-2025-how-will-it-impact-your-finances\">Autumn Budget<\/a>. But despite criticism, it was well received by financial markets: bond yields fell (lowering borrowing costs) and the pound rallied.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tax hikes are never good news, but the government did increase the \u201cheadroom\u201d against its fiscal rules, reducing the chance of a third tax-hiking budget in a row. The inevitability of tax increases has weighed on optimism and economic activity this year. Not that the increases will be landing any time soon \u2013 with the majority due to hit between 2029 and 2031.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-uk-equities-the-great-forgotten\"><strong>UK equities \u2013 the great forgotten<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>A weak dollar and equity market volatility allowed the UK market to outperform the U.S. this year, despite it lacking the tech exposure of U.S. and Asian markets. The contrast underscores the value of regional diversification.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even after strong returns this year, UK valuations remain attractive. The FTSE All-Share Index trades significantly below its long-term median valuation relative to global developed markets. This discount provides both a margin of safety and the potential for repeated outperformance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-uk-bonds-continue-to-deliver\"><strong>UK bonds continue to deliver<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Similarly, UK bonds continue to offer some of the highest yields amongst developed economies. As future tax hikes loom and regulatory costs stay put, there\u2019s scope for interest rates to fall, further boosting returns. A handful of UK bonds even deliver tax-free capital gains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-opportunities-remain\">Opportunities remain<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The UK and U.S. offer distinct advantages and we believe there are opportunities in both countries\u2019 stock and bond markets. Although they have many differences, these have recently been helping to diversify portfolios rather than diluting returns. As George Bernard Shaw said\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"h-the-british-and-americans-are-two-people-separated-by-a-common-language\"><strong>\u201cThe British and Americans are two people separated by a common language.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2015&nbsp;<strong>George Bernard Shaw<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbcwm-card rbc-card rbc-card-shadow\"><div class=\"rbc-card-wrap\"><div class=\"rbc-card-body\"><div>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-about-the-author\">About the author<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbcwm-columns container\"><div class=\"row blockId-3998998e-490c-401b-aef4-823af6407248\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbcwm-column col-lg-4\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-style-rounded\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"300\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/wme\/uk\/guy-foster-rbc-brewin-dolphin.jpg?w=300\" alt=\"Guy Foster, Wealth Management, Chief Strategist\" class=\"wp-image-3498\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbcwm-column col-lg-8\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-guy-foster\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-uk\/our-people\/guy-foster\">Guy Foster<\/a><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"is-style-subheader\">Chief Strategist<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Guy previously served as Head of Research before becoming Chief Strategist. He is responsible for overseeing investment strategy, offering tactical investment recommendations to our investment managers, and leading the Investment Solutions business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref1\" id=\"_ftn1\">[1]<\/a> National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) survey<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref2\" id=\"_ftn2\">[2]<\/a> Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, Federal Reserve, September 2025<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref3\" id=\"_ftn3\">[3]<\/a> Congressional Budget Office\u2019s Current View of the Economy From 2025 to 2028, September 2025<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Information is provided only as an example and is not a recommendation to pursue a particular strategy. We or a connected person may have positions in or options on the securities mentioned herein or may buy, sell or offer to make a purchase or sale of such securities from time to time. For further information, please refer to our conflicts policy which is available on request or can be accessed via our website at www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-uk. Information contained in this document is believed to be reliable and accurate, but without further investigation cannot be warranted as to accuracy or completeness. <\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>RBC Brewin Dolphin is a trading name of RBC Europe Limited. RBC Europe Limited is registered in England and Wales No. 995939. Registered Address: 100 Bishopsgate, London EC2N 4AA. Authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u00ae \/ \u2122 Trademark(s) of Royal Bank of Canada. Used under licence.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Chief Strategist Guy Foster analyses the year ahead, pinpointing key opportunities and risks to help you navigate 2026 with confidence.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":97,"featured_media":45411,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcbd_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcbd_featured_mobile_image_position":"center-left","footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[193],"tags":[],"rbcwm_content_owner":[],"rbcwm_need":[768,769],"rbcwm_segment":[773,792,775,772,776],"rbcwm_solution":[759],"rbcwm_topic":[756],"rbcwm_channel":[99,100,782,781],"rbcwm_format":[794],"class_list":["post-45395","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investing","rbcwm_need-grow","rbcwm_need-secure","rbcwm_segment-business-owners","rbcwm_segment-corporate-executives","rbcwm_segment-family-offices","rbcwm_segment-individuals","rbcwm_segment-international-individuals","rbcwm_solution-investments","rbcwm_topic-market-analysis","rbcwm_channel-private-clients","rbcwm_channel-intermediaries","rbcwm_channel-professional-partners","rbcwm_channel-uk-individual","rbcwm_format-guide"],"acf":{"rbc_ct_service":"s1","rbc_ct_theme":"s1_th1","rbc_ct_topic":"s1_th1_ta1","rbcwm_subtitle":"Equity markets may climb further in 2026, fuelled by U.S. growth and AI innovation - but volatility and valuations demand strategic diversification, including undervalued UK opportunities. 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