{"id":58615,"date":"2026-07-31T17:00:05","date_gmt":"2026-07-31T17:00:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-uk\/?p=58615"},"modified":"2026-07-31T17:00:06","modified_gmt":"2026-07-31T17:00:06","slug":"is-kevin-warsh-a-sheep-in-wolfs-clothing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-uk\/insights\/is-kevin-warsh-a-sheep-in-wolfs-clothing","title":{"rendered":"Is Kevin Warsh a sheep in wolf\u2019s clothing?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\n And just like that, the honeymoon is over. The start of Kevin Warsh\u2019s\n (still brief) tenure as chair of the Federal Reserve was marked by tough\n talk about the need for \u201cregime change,\u201d an exceedingly firm reaffirmation\n of the Fed\u2019s commitment to deliver price stability, and a \u201cno tolerance\u201d\n pledge to drive inflation back to the Fed\u2019s 2.0 percent target. Markets\n swiftly took heed, and comfort, as concerns that Warsh could be too easily\n swayed by a president who openly desired lower interest rates were\n dispelled in June by his first press conference, when he backed up his\n long-running reputation as an inflation hawk and doubled down on political\n independence.\n <\/p>\n

\n But as the old saying goes, it takes a lifetime to build a reputation, and\n a minute to lose it. Or, in this case, a 45-minute press conference. That\n may be a bit harsh, but Warsh\u2019s credibility \u2013 at least on the inflation\n front \u2013 was certainly dented this week.\n <\/p>\n

\n He isn\u2019t the first central banker to take a seat in the big chair only to\n stumble out of the gate, nor is the situation solely of his own making.\n Central bankers must learn the nuances of communicating with markets, and\n markets must learn to interpret and understand new central bank heads.\n <\/p>\n \n

Press conference goes off the rails<\/h2>\n

\n All things considered, the meeting played out as anticipated. There was no\n interest rate hike, in line with consensus expectations; the policy\n statement was just as short and factual as it had been in June; and even\n the two dissents were not unexpected based on premeeting comments, with\n only a modest surprise from Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari opting to\n join the dissenters. In the end, markets barely budged \u2013 and then the words\n started flying.\n <\/p>\n

\n It\u2019s hard to say precisely what aspect of Walsh\u2019s statement traders took\n issue with as the press conference proceeded, but perhaps the problem was\n simply what he didn\u2019t say. Warsh hails from the political side of the\n financial world and is therefore adept at saying words without saying\n anything at all. But that might not fly as a central bank chair. We know\n he has no desire to provide forward guidance, and that\u2019s fine, but markets\n still need to know what the Fed is thinking about, you know, things.\n <\/p>\n

\n The closest Warsh came to a direct answer to anything was expressing his\n views on the Fed\u2019s reaction function, stating that, \u201cAny central banker,\n when he or she sees underlying inflation moving higher, he or she is more\n inclined to tighten policy. Again, when you\u2019ve achieved the other side of\n your mandate, and you see underlying inflation falling, he\u2019s more inclined\n to loosen policy.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

\n That dynamic may be another source of confusion. Core PCE inflation has\n been trending higher since fading to 2.6 percent in April 2025, and\n despite a modest downshift to 3.3 percent annually, the trend still looks\n like \u201ctwo steps forward, one step back.\u201d While Warsh is also no fan of\n economic forecasting, current consensus views \u2013 even after June\u2019s soft\n inflation data \u2013 still have inflation missing the two percent target through\n at least 2027.\n <\/p>\n \n

64 months of inflation above two percent seen extending into 2028<\/h3>\n
\n
\n
\n \"64\n
    \n
  • \n
    \n <\/div>\n Core PCE (y\/y)\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    \n
    <\/div>\n <\/div>\n Consensus estimate\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    \n
    <\/div>\n <\/div>\n Fed projection\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

    \n Source – RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg consensus survey as of July\n 2026, Federal Reserve projections as of June 2026\n <\/p>\n

    \n The chart shows the core (excluding energy & food) measure of the U.S.\n Federal Reserve\u2019s preferred gauge of inflation, Personal Consumption\n Expenditures, since March 2021 when it first exceeded the Fed\u2019s 2.0\n percent target. Current Bloomberg consensus expectations and the Fed\u2019s\n own projections have it remaining above that level through at least\n 2027.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

    \n Given his prior tough talk on inflation, including his criticism that the\n Fed was too late raising rates in 2021 and 2022, is Kevin Warsh really\n going to now stand by and do nothing as 64 months of above-target\n inflation stretches to 70 months? Or 82 months?\n <\/p>\n

    \n In any case, the bond market reaction this week was not kind, and may be\n telling.\n <\/p>\n \n

    When holding rates steady moves them higher<\/h2>\n

    \n Our own view was that the Fed would surprise markets with a rate hike this\n week, largely in pursuit of the goals previously discussed. We also felt\n that aggressive action could actually help cap the ongoing rise in\n longer-term Treasury yields, which feed more directly than short-term\n policy interest rates into consumer and corporate borrowing rates like\n mortgages and corporate bonds.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Instead, the Fed\u2019s inaction in not raising short-term interest rates has\n pushed the 30-year Treasury yield to a 19-year high of 5.2 percent, with\n the 10-year not far behind at 4.7 percent. The two-year Treasury yield\n (which is more sensitive to the market\u2019s interest rate expectations) has\n faded slightly this week on doubts about the Fed\u2019s ability to follow\n through on its tough talk. But at 4.2 percent, it remains well above the\n current 3.6 percent policy rate, suggesting that the Fed will eventually\n have to do something.\n <\/p>\n \n

    30-year Treasury yield hits post-2007 high; other yields to follow?<\/h3>\n
    \n
    \n
    \n \"30-year\n
      \n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n U.S. recession\n <\/li>\n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n 2Y Treasury yield\n <\/li>\n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n 10Y Treasury yield\n <\/li>\n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n 30Y Treasury yield\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

      \n Source – RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; data range 12\/31\/97\u20137\/30\/26\n <\/p>\n

      \n The chart shows the evolution of 2-year, 10-year, and 30-year U.S.\n Treasury yields since 1997, with yields this week reaching 4.21%,\n 4.66%, and 5.20%, respectively.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

      \n With respect to the 30-year, after breaking 5.2 percent we see the next\n technical resistance level at 5.4 percent. But if that doesn\u2019t hold,\n buckle up \u2013 in our view, the next notable resistance is at nearly 6.0\n percent, a level not seen since the other tech boom of the late 1990s.\n <\/p>\n

      \n In his press conference, Warsh said the market had done the Fed\u2019s job for\n it via higher yields. But without action from policymakers, the market\n could take that statement as a challenge \u2013 if indeed the Fed wants to\n outsource its job \u2013 and put more pressure on the central bank in the form of\n even loftier Treasury yields.\n <\/p>\n \n

      Where to from here?<\/h2>\n

      \n Ironically, the next six weeks until the Fed\u2019s Sept. 15-16 meeting \u2013 and the\n verdict on the Fed\u2019s decision to stand pat this month \u2013 will likely depend\n on the economic data Warsh largely eschews. Tier 1 data like the Consumer\n and Producer Price reports, and to a lesser extent the Nonfarm Payrolls\n report, will determine whether the Fed was right to wait for more data.\n <\/p>\n

      \n But in an early read on price trends in July from business surveys, the\n S&P Global Flash PMI report found that, \u201cInput cost inflation rose to\n its highest since May 2025, as cooler manufacturing cost growth was more\n than offset by a 14-month high in services. Selling price inflation also\n accelerated as firms passed higher costs on to customers, with the overall\n rise in charges the steepest since July 2022.\u201d On top of that, with oil\n prices rising again and the Trump administration rebuilding the tariff\n wall, we find ourselves not quite as optimistic on the near-term inflation\n trajectory.\n <\/p>\n

      \n We still think a rate hike was simply deferred this month, and that the\n three dissenters at this month\u2019s meeting could find more support among the\n Board of Governors in September. But whether Chair Warsh decides to go\n along with them could be the ultimate reveal of whether he is truly just a\n sheep in wolf\u2019s clothing.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      The Federal Reserve chair got the “family fight” he wanted at this week\u2019s meeting, but now might have a fight with the market. With the 30-year Treasury yield near a two-decade high, we look at where policy and yields could go from here.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":58616,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2026-07-30T11:43:17","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcbd_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcbd_featured_mobile_image_position":"","footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1345],"tags":[1322,1358,1359,1289],"rbcwm_content_owner":[1348],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[1347],"rbcwm_channel":[99],"rbcwm_format":[779],"class_list":["post-58615","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis-2","tag-federal-reserve-2","tag-kevin-warsh-2","tag-rate-hikes-2","tag-the-fed-2","rbcwm_content_owner-pag-2","rbcwm_topic-global-insights-2","rbcwm_channel-private-clients","rbcwm_format-article"],"acf":{"rbc_ct_service":"","rbc_ct_theme":false,"rbc_ct_topic":false,"rbcwm_subtitle":"The Federal Reserve chair got the \"family fight\" he wanted at this week\u2019s meeting, but now might have a fight with the market. With the 30-year Treasury yield near a two-decade high, we look at where policy and yields could go from here.","rbcwm_post_author":[954],"rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":"","disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[8231],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false},"yoast_head":"\nIs Kevin Warsh a sheep in wolf\u2019s clothing? – RBC Wealth Management United Kingdom<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-uk\/insights\/is-kevin-warsh-a-sheep-in-wolfs-clothing\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Is Kevin Warsh a sheep in wolf\u2019s clothing?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Federal Reserve chair got the "family fight" he wanted at this week\u2019s meeting, but now might have a fight with the market. 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