{"id":59750,"date":"2026-09-18T16:54:51","date_gmt":"2026-09-18T16:54:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-uk\/?p=59750"},"modified":"2026-09-18T16:54:52","modified_gmt":"2026-09-18T16:54:52","slug":"what-goes-down-must-come-up","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-uk\/insights\/what-goes-down-must-come-up","title":{"rendered":"What goes down must come up?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\n But first, let\u2019s assuage some likely fears. The economy has weathered\n higher interest rates exceptionally well for years now, and one 25 basis\n point rate hike from the Fed is unlikely to change that fact. To wit, the\n fact that the U.S. economy has weathered rates so well is largely the\n reason we believe the Fed chose to raise rates this week.\n <\/p>\n

\n At no point since the Fed started cutting short-term interest rates in\n 2024 has the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield \u2013 which is the real basis for\n most business and consumer borrowing rates \u2013 traded lower than it had been\n back then. As the Fed cut overnight rates down to what is now 4.00 percent\n from 5.50 percent, the 10-year Treasury yield rose from about 3.65 percent\n and ultimately breached the five percent level this week \u2013 marking a fresh\n trading high since 2007 in the process.\n <\/p>\n \n

Treasury yields have only moved higher despite Fed rate cuts<\/h3>\n

\n Changes in the federal funds rate and 10-year Treasury yield since\n Sept. 2024\n <\/h4>\n
\n
\n
\n \"Changes\n
    \n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Change in 10-year Treasury yield\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Change in federal funds rate\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

    Source – RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg<\/p>\n

    \n The line chart shows the percentage change in the benchmark U.S.\n 10-year Treasury yield and the federal funds rate since the Federal\n Reserve began cutting policy rates in Sept. 2024, through\n September 17, 2026. Over that period, the 10-year yield has risen by\n 1.3 percent, even as the Fed lowered short-term rates by what is now\n 1.5 percent following the 0.25 percent rate hike on September 16,\n 2026.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

    \n So, even as key interest rates remained high, economic growth has stayed\n robust, labour markets have largely maintained \u201cfull employment\u201d around 4.2\n percent and inflation has failed to make material further progress toward\n the two percent goal. All told, most economic and market data has signalled\n not only that the Fed probably didn\u2019t need to cut rates any further, but\n rather that policy rates might need to be a bit more restrictive \u2013 or as Fed\n Chair Kevin Warsh put it, they removed a \u201cdose of accommodation.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

    \n In a sense then, any near-term rate hikes from the Fed are effectively\n just marking-to-market short-term policy rates with longer-term Treasury\n yields, something which perhaps makes sense for Warsh, who has arguably\n attempted to outsource Federal Reserve decision making to the markets.\n <\/p>\n

    \n But as many have already opined, a simple 25 basis point rate hike doesn\u2019t\n really do<\/em> much, so what might the Fed have to do then, and in\n pursuit of what exactly?\n <\/p>\n \n

    Rate cut take back<\/h2>\n

    \n The Fed delivered three 25 basis point rate cuts toward the end of 2025 as\n signs of a weakening labour market spurred policymakers into action. But\n those rate cuts \u2013 which act with a lag on the economy \u2013 are now showing up in\n the form of lower unemployment and what Chair Warsh characterized this\n week as a \u201cstrengthening\u201d economy.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Therefore, our base case is that the Fed raises rates at each of the final\n two meetings of 2026 in October and December, which would bring the policy\n rate back to a target range of 4.25\u20134.50 percent.\n <\/p>\n

    \n At that point, the real debate likely begins. We see a prolonged pause as\n a base case. But if the unemployment rate stays below 4.2 percent, as Fed\n projections this week indicated, and growth remains strong, as the Fed\n also expects, paired with the fact that the Fed still doesn\u2019t expect\n inflation to reach the two percent target until 2029, then it seems to us\n entirely possible that the Fed keeps pressing with further hikes in 2027.\n <\/p>\n

    \n The two-year Treasury yield, which serves as a proxy for market expectations\n for the path of the Fed\u2019s policy rate, remains near 4.70 percent \u2013 that\u2019s\n higher than any single interest rate forecast submitted by Fed\n policymakers this week throughout the forecast horizon, which stretches\n into 2029. Even as policymakers signalled more rate hikes than perhaps\n analysts were anticipating, markets are saying those projections still\n aren\u2019t high enough.\n <\/p>\n

    \n But could the Fed actually unwind all of the rate cuts delivered since\n 2024, which would bring the policy rate back to a range of 5.25\u20135.50\n percent? The short answer is that we think it\u2019s quite unlikely; the longer\n answer is that unlikely doesn\u2019t mean that it\u2019s impossible.\n <\/p>\n \n

    Are long-end yields a sign of where short-term rates are going?<\/h2>\n

    \n One point we have stressed in recent months is that the near-term focus on\n oil prices, or geopolitics, or tariffs, or whatever is missing the forest\n for the trees \u2013 global government bond yields have been rising steadily and\n consistently, not just this year, not just since last year, but for over\n five years now.\n <\/p>\n

    \n The 10- and 30-year sovereign bonds of developed countries, such as the\n U.S., Canada, the UK, France, Germany, Japan, etc., have set fresh\n decade \u2013 if not multi-decade \u2013 highs again this week, and there are few signs\n that this trend is on the cusp of rolling over.\n <\/p>\n

    \n The second chart attempts to frame how we\u2019re thinking about the benchmark\n 10-year Treasury yield in the United States. At around five percent this\n week, it\u2019s now at risk of eclipsing the 2007 peak around 5.3 percent.\n <\/p>\n \n

    Benchmarking the benchmark<\/h3>\n

    \n Tracking the 10-year Treasury yield across past economic eras suggests\n higher yields may be ahead\n <\/h4>\n
    \n
    \n
    \n \"Tracking\n
      \n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n U.S. recessions\n <\/li>\n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n 10-year Treasury yield\n <\/li>\n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n Economic expansion period averages\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

      Source – RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg<\/p>\n

      \n The line charts shows the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield\n since 1991 and the average yield level during each of the economic\n expansions in that timespan. Average expansion-period yields were\n 6.32% from April 1991 through February 2001, 4.41% from December\n 2001 through November 2007, 2.41% from July 2009 through January\n 2020, and 3.23% from May 2020 through September 17, 2026.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

      \n Is that high enough to help achieve the Fed\u2019s objective of restraining\n economic activity to sufficiently bring inflation once and for all back\n down to two percent? Well, 2007 was all about housing and consumer\n borrowing. But that\u2019s not where we are today, as the housing market hasn\u2019t\n really been an economic factor for years now.\n <\/p>\n

      \n What is this current cycle all about? Corporate borrowing and the\n AI-related infrastructure buildout. Those themes have more parallels to\n the 1990s than the early 2000s. While consumers are typically more\n sensitive to interest rates, companies usually aren\u2019t to the same extent,\n and that is almost certainly even more true for the hyperscalers.\n <\/p>\n

      \n And those hyperscalers have been falling over themselves to issue debt\n this year with most coupon ranges between five percent and low-six\n percent. Would seven percent cool that demand? Eight percent? We don\u2019t\n know, but it feels safe to say that it\u2019s something higher than current\n levels. And if history is a guide, then maybe we have to look at the 1990s\n when the government was paying over six percent on 10-year paper, and\n highly rated companies were paying between six and eight percent.\n <\/p>\n

      \n We\u2019re in an environment where the demand for capital seems limitless,\n whether it\u2019s government borrowing needs around the world from high\n deficits or the AI buildout, and that demand for capital should only keep\n making it more expensive, in our assessment. With the Fed likely to\n continue taking its cues from markets, markets keep signalling that higher\n rates could be on the horizon.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      After the Fed\u2019s rate hike, we see little question policymakers take back the 2025 cuts, but the real question might be whether they will take back the 2024 cuts too \u2013 and what that means for Treasury yields nearing 20-year highs.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":59751,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2026-09-17T11:00:59","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcbd_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcbd_featured_mobile_image_position":"","footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[186],"tags":[1359,1401],"rbcwm_content_owner":[1228],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[187],"rbcwm_channel":[99],"rbcwm_format":[779],"class_list":["post-59750","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-rate-hikes-2","tag-treasury-yields-2","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights","rbcwm_channel-private-clients","rbcwm_format-article"],"acf":{"rbc_ct_service":"","rbc_ct_theme":false,"rbc_ct_topic":false,"rbcwm_subtitle":"After the Fed\u2019s rate hike, we see little question policymakers take back the 2025 cuts, but the real question might be whether they will take back the 2024 cuts too \u2013 and what that means for Treasury yields nearing 20-year highs.","rbcwm_post_author":[954],"rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":"","disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[8231],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false},"yoast_head":"\nWhat goes down must come up? – RBC Wealth Management United Kingdom<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-uk\/insights\/what-goes-down-must-come-up\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What goes down must come up?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"After the Fed\u2019s rate hike, we see little question policymakers take back the 2025 cuts, but the real question might be whether they will take back the 2024 cuts too \u2013 and what that means for Treasury yields nearing 20-year highs.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-uk\/insights\/what-goes-down-must-come-up\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"RBC Wealth Management United Kingdom\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/rbcwealthmgmt\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-09-18T16:54:51+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-09-18T16:54:52+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/23\/2026\/09\/scl-business-people-walking-up-and-down-stairs-hor-EU.jpg?w=2000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"627\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"chloetejada\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@rbcwealth\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@rbcwealth\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\\\/en-uk\\\/insights\\\/what-goes-down-must-come-up#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\\\/en-uk\\\/insights\\\/what-goes-down-must-come-up\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"chloetejada\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\\\/en-uk\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/c2bb0a72d12219d75bf7f724d256ed9c\"},\"headline\":\"What goes down must come up?\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-09-18T16:54:51+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-09-18T16:54:52+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\\\/en-uk\\\/insights\\\/what-goes-down-must-come-up\"},\"wordCount\":1187,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\\\/en-uk\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\\\/en-uk\\\/insights\\\/what-goes-down-must-come-up#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\\\/en-uk\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/23\\\/2026\\\/09\\\/business-people-walking-up-and-down-stairs-3210x2140-1.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"rate hikes\",\"treasury yields\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Analysis\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-GB\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\\\/en-uk\\\/insights\\\/what-goes-down-must-come-up\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\\\/en-uk\\\/insights\\\/what-goes-down-must-come-up\",\"name\":\"What goes down must come up? 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