{"id":12089,"date":"2023-09-20T20:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-09-21T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/insights\/recharging-the-energy-transition"},"modified":"2023-11-10T13:53:41","modified_gmt":"2023-11-10T18:53:41","slug":"recharging-the-energy-transition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/insights\/recharging-the-energy-transition","title":{"rendered":"Recharging the energy transition?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><em>RBC Wealth Management\u2019s \u201cWorlds apart: Risks and opportunities as deglobalization looms\u201d series explores the trend away from globalization and its ramifications for investors, economies, and financial markets. This article in the series focuses on green energy transition.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbcwm-well well is-style-is-style-b-blue-tint-4 b-blue-tint-4 mb-3 migrated\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-left\" id=\"h-key-points\">Key points<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"list-spaced wp-block-list\">\n<li> Fossil fuels were given a new lease on life as European and Asian governments scrambled to ensure energy supplies through the 2022\u201323 winter heating season. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li> Yet as governments worldwide moved to combine their environmental agendas with energy security policies, the green transition gained new impetus. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li> While most governments have upped their targets for renewable energy, serious challenges remain, such as access to critical minerals, antiquated grids, and higher borrowing costs. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li> The increased focus on energy security will see some companies emerge in advantageous positions, but given the challenges ahead, investors should be discerning. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>       Is the global energy transition powering down? Dwelling on just the       headlines, it\u2019s easy to jump to the conclusion that looming       deglobalization is imperiling the clean energy drive. After all, since       Russia invaded Ukraine\u2014a symptom of deglobalization\u2014fossil fuel production       has spiked.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       Yet we believe this masks a more significant underlying trend. Although       fossil fuel use has been reinvigorated, most nations are also       turbocharging the rollout of clean energy as governments are merging       environmental agendas with energy security policies.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       We delve into the extent of the renewed enthusiasm for green technologies       and assess the challenges that threaten their deployment and the       achievement of net-zero emissions by 2050. We suggest how investors should       position portfolios to tap into industries that we see as likely to       benefit from the emphasis on clean energy.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A boost to fossil fuels<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>       Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine marked the onset of an era of renewed       popularity for fossil fuels, with oil and coal in particular enjoying a       new lease on life. With Russian energy supplies at risk, and European and       Asian governments scrambling to ensure energy supplies through the 2022\u201323       winter heating season, oil drilling increased in the U.S., the UK, the       Persian Gulf, and, in particular, Latin America. Global production rose by       some 1.7 million barrels per day, according to the International Energy       Agency (IEA). This intergovernmental organization expects global       production to expand by close to six million barrels per day over the next       five years.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">       Oil supply increases to peak in 2023 and rise at a slower pace thereafter     <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">       Global oil supply forecast, 2022\u20132028 year-over-year change (million       barrels\/day)     <\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"row mb-4 migrated\">       <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">         <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/09\/recharging-energy-transition-en-chart-1.png\" alt=\"Global oil supply forecast, 2022\u20132028 year-over-year change (million barrels\/day)\" class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\" \/>         <p           class=\"sr-only\"           id=\"chart1desc\"         >           Bar chart showing the increase in global oil supplies on a           million-barrels-per-day basis for the period of 2022 through 2028 and           breaks down the various regional sources for the increase in supply.           Globally, 2023 marks the peak of the increase in production\u2014at two           million barrels per day. From 2024 and forward the increase in daily           production diminishes annually to 0.6 million barrels per day in 2028.           The United States was the source of the largest daily increases in           2022 and 2023. For 2024, the chart shows that non-OPEC countries, in           particular Latin America, will be the key contributors. OPEC+ is           expected to contribute less than a quarter of the overall increase in           supply until 2028, when it is anticipated to contribute more than half           of the additional supply.         <\/p>         <div class=\"row mb-1\">           <div class=\"col-md-6\">             <ul class=\"rbc-legend\">               <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">                 <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar c-dark-blue-tint-1\"><\/div>                 United States               <\/li>               <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">                 <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar c-blue-tint-1\"><\/div>                 Non-OPEC+ Latin America               <\/li>               <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">                 <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar c-blue-tint-3\"><\/div>                 Other Non-OPEC+               <\/li>             <\/ul>           <\/div>           <div class=\"col-md-6\">             <ul class=\"rbc-legend\">               <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">                 <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar c-warm-red-dark\"><\/div>                 Saudi Arabia               <\/li>               <!-- hack to make UAE the same width as LatAm for 2-col -->               <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">                 <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar c-warm-red\"><\/div>                 United Arab Emirates               <\/li>               <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">                 <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar c-warm-red-tint-2\"><\/div>                 Other OPEC+               <\/li>             <\/ul>           <\/div>         <\/div>              <p class=\"footnote\">           Note: Assumes Iran and Russia remain under Western sanctions. OPEC           comprises 13 oil-exporting countries: Algeria, Angola, Congo,           Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi           Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela. OPEC+ comprises 23           countries including the OPEC members as well as Russia and other major           producers such as Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Mexico, and Oman. The U.S.           is not a member of OPEC.          <\/p>         <p class=\"disclaimer\">           Source &#8211; International Energy Agency, &#8220;Oil 2023&#8221;         <\/p>       <\/div>     <\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>       Coal has also experienced a revival. Coal-fired power plants in Europe       reopened or were granted life extensions in response to Russia shutting       off its gas supplies to the continent. This new appetite was a sharp       reversal for coal, which had been in decline since 2014. In fact, the IEA       estimates that world coal output reached an all-time high in 2022,       surpassing eight billion tonnes for the first time.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       This apparent new love affair with fossil fuels didn\u2019t stop at production.       Many governments in Europe went as far as subsidizing the consumption of       dirty fuels to shield their populations from crippling increases in energy       costs, an ironic twist to existing policies that encourage the use of       green energy.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       The extent of energy price inflation has varied by country, depending on       several factors such as the fuel mix, taxation, and energy bill support       strategies. Turkey and Europe have suffered the worst pain as a quarter of       households lived in energy poverty (i.e., unable to afford essential       energy services) at the peak of the energy crisis, according to the IEA.       North America, meanwhile, has not been entirely spared from energy price       inflation.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">       Energy price inflation was highest in Europe and Turkey, but North America       was not spared     <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2022 year-over-year change in energy prices for select countries<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"row mb-4 migrated\">       <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">         <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/09\/recharging-energy-transition-en-chart-2.png\" alt=\"2022 year-over-year change in energy prices for select countries\" class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\" \/>         <p           class=\"sr-only\"           id=\"chart2desc\"         >           Bar chart showing the year-over-year increase in energy prices for           select countries. Most affected was Turkey, where energy prices spiked           137%. Energy prices jumped 59% in the UK and 39% in the EU. The           increases were more muted in North America, though prices were still           up an uncomfortable 18% and 16% in the U.S. and Canada, respectively.           The following countries were also shown in the chart: Netherlands,           100%; Italy, 71%; Ireland, 48%; Germany, 44%; Norway, 29%; Chile and           Switzerland, 21%; France, 20% and Mexico, 3%.         <\/p>         <p class=\"disclaimer\">           Source &#8211; International Energy Agency, &#8220;Energy Efficiency 2022&#8221;; data           as of October 2022         <\/p>       <\/div>     <\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The real big story: Green energy transition<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>       Yet higher fossil fuel production and consumption mask a much bigger       story: the new impetus for the renewable energy transition as governments       combine their environmental agendas with energy security policies that       have taken on fresh urgency. As such, renewable power can augment energy       self-reliance as these energy sources are mostly generated domestically.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       Conveniently for governments fostering the green transition, the economics       of renewables have improved. New solar plants and wind farms are now more       cost-effective to build than fossil fuel-fired plants, even when factoring       in the rising raw material and borrowing costs brought on by the       Russia-Ukraine war.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       Governments are also attracted to the job creation potential of renewable       energy projects. In March 2022, a World Economic Forum study projected       that the green transition will create 10.3 million net new jobs globally       by 2030, with the largest gains in electrical efficiency, power       generation, and the automotive sector.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">       Solar photovoltaic and onshore wind are more cost-effective than fossil       fuel     <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">       Global weighted average levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) by production       technology (2022 dollars\/kilowatt-hour)     <\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"row mb-4 migrated\">       <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">         <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/09\/recharging-energy-transition-en-chart-3.png\" alt=\"Global weighted average levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) by production           technology (2022 dollars\/kilowatt-hour)\" class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\" \/>         <p           class=\"sr-only\"           id=\"chart3desc\"         >           Line chart showing the progression of the levelized cost of energy for           various renewable technologies and the price range for fossil fuels           from 2010 to 2021. Since 2010, the levelized costs for offshore and           onshore wind power as well as solar and concentrated solar power have           declined markedly. As of 2020, all are below the high end of the price           range for fossil fuels. The levelized costs of solar photovoltaic and           onshore wind are also below the lower end of the fossil fuel price           range.         <\/p>         <div class=\"row\">           <div class=\"col-md-6\">             <ul class=\"rbc-legend\">               <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">                 <div class=\"rbc-legend-line c-dark-blue-tint-1\">                   <div class=\"rbc-legend-square c-dark-blue-tint-1\"><\/div>                 <\/div>                 Offshore&nbsp;wind               <\/li>               <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">                 <div class=\"rbc-legend-line c-blue-tint-1\">                   <div                     class=\"rbc-legend-square rbc-legend-outline c-blue-tint-1\"                   ><\/div>                 <\/div>                 Onshore&nbsp;wind               <\/li>             <\/ul>           <\/div>           <div class=\"col-md-6\">             <ul class=\"rbc-legend\">               <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">                 <div class=\"rbc-legend-line c-sun\">                   <div class=\"rbc-legend-circle c-sun\"><\/div>                 <\/div>                 Concentrated&nbsp;solar&nbsp;power               <\/li>               <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">                 <div class=\"rbc-legend-line c-warm-yellow\">                   <div                     class=\"rbc-legend-circle rbc-legend-outline c-warm-yellow\"                   ><\/div>                 <\/div>                 Solar&nbsp;photovoltaic               <\/li>             <\/ul>           <\/div>           <div class=\"col-md-12\">             <ul class=\"rbc-legend\">               <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">                 <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar c-carbon-tint-1\"><\/div>                 Fossil fuels price range               <\/li>             <\/ul>           <\/div>         <\/div>         <p class=\"footnote\">           Note: The levelized cost of energy estimates the overall cost of an           energy system against the amount of energy it will provide to end up           with a cost per unit of energy produced.         <\/p>         <p class=\"disclaimer\">           Source &#8211; International Renewable Energy Agency, &#8220;Renewable Power           Generation Costs in 2022&#8221;         <\/p>       <\/div>     <\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bankrolling the clean energy rollout<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>       In the wake of the Russia-Ukraine war, most governments have raised their       targets for renewable energy generation and announced substantial fiscal       support to achieve them.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       All in all, the IEA\u2019s current estimate of global renewable energy capacity       is 30 percent higher than prior to the war. It expects this capacity to       rise almost 75 percent, or by 2,400 gigawatts (GW), between 2022 and       2027\u2014an amount equivalent to China\u2019s current installed capacity.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       In the U.S., the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), signed into law by       President Joe Biden in August 2022, provides over $350 billion of       subsidies for green technology, which should result in a tripling of U.S.       clean energy production, according to S&amp;P Global Commodity Insights.       By 2030, 40 percent of the country\u2019s energy could come from renewable       sources, or close to double today\u2019s level.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       Meanwhile, the European Commission has earmarked \u20ac250 billion for clean       tech companies via its RePowerEU plan. It now targets doubling the bloc\u2019s       installed solar capacity by 2025, five years ahead of the previous       deadline.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       In 2021, in its 14th Five-Year Plan, China announced for the first time an       ambitious goal of generating one-third of its power from renewables by       2025.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       The UK, the second-largest offshore wind market worldwide, upped the pace       of deployment of this technology, aiming for installed capacity to reach       50 GW by 2030 versus the previous commitment of 40 GW, among other       measures encouraging renewables.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       Indications of the vitality of the clean energy transition were clearly       visible in 2022, including:     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>         Global Investments in wind and solar assets grew to $490 billion over         the year, exceeding outlays for new and existing oil and gas wells for         the first time, according to Rystad Energy, an international energy         consultancy based in Norway.       <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>         According to IEA estimates, energy efficiency-related investments         globally exceeded $550 billion in 2022, up 16 percent over the prior         year, with electric vehicles (EVs), building insulation, and heat pumps         the key priorities, as consumers faced the worst energy crisis since the         1970s.       <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>         Global EV sales were just shy of 11 million in 2022, up more than 45         percent year over year. Thanks to subsidies and phase-out targets, RBC         Capital Markets, LLC\u2019s Senior Global Autos and Auto Parts Analyst Tom         Narayan expects global EV sales of some 14 million units in 2023, or         close to 20 percent of all cars sold worldwide\u2014a stark step up from a         mere 2.7 percent in 2019.       <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bottlenecks and higher costs<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>       Despite these renewed commitments, the green energy transition still faces       serious challenges which threaten the ambition of achieving net zero by       2050.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       One of the most pressing issues is squeezed supply chains. As demand for       green products accelerates, so does demand for critical minerals.       Increased expenditures on military hardware, particularly from the U.S.,       EU, and China, exacerbate these issues as these raw materials are crucial       to manufacturing and maintaining weapons systems and equipment. Today, for       the first time in decades, those three regions, which together represent       close to half of global GDP, are all vying for the same limited supplies       of resources.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       Suppliers of critical minerals and components are <a href=\"\/insights\/mission-critical-securing-supply-of-critical-minerals\" title=\"Mission critical: Securing supply of critical minerals\">struggling to keep up<\/a>.       Investment has been insufficient to meet this surge in demand, while       scaling up mining and processing is an expensive and time-consuming       process as it takes 10 years on average for a mine to come on stream.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       Geopolitical tensions are also rippling across supply chains. China, which       dominates the supply chains for most of the metals and minerals required       for the energy transition, recently imposed an export ban on germanium and       gallium. These two niche metals are used to manufacture electronics and       green technologies, and the restrictions are a retaliation to the West\u2019s       embargoes on software and chipmaking equipment. Given the risk of further       escalation, such tit-for-tat salvos are a wrinkle to keep an eye on.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       In an attempt to build more resilient supply chains, the corporate sector       is innovating. For instance, EV manufacturers are increasingly turning to       joint development agreements. Tesla is now negotiating supply contracts       directly with the mines, and General Motors plans to invest $650 million       in mining company Lithium Americas to develop a mine in Nevada.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       Such collaborations can provide automakers with more control over the       supplies and costs of the EV value chain. Vertical integration is becoming       increasingly important to car manufacturers as they look to lock in       supplies of key battery raw materials at cheaper prices. We think this       strategy will become more common in the coming years and may spread to       other industries.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       Another thorny problem for countries is that antiquated power grids are       struggling to keep up with the growing appetite for clean energy. Grids       all over the world need to be modernized and enlarged to accommodate       renewable energy sources. Still, some renewable generation and storage       projects face lengthy delays. For example, it could be a couple of years       before projects in some U.S. states are able to connect to the grid, with       delays in the UK of up to 15 years. BloombergNEF, a commodity research       provider, calculates that 80 million kilometers of new grid is needed by       2050, an amount equal to today\u2019s existing global grid.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       Expanding and modernizing the grid has not been much of a priority for       governments so far, but it\u2019s dawning on them that the lack of grid       investment could put renewable targets in jeopardy. Locating transmission       lines alongside highways, railroads, or pipelines, where the granting of       planning permission is more likely, could be a way to accelerate the       process.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       Finally, higher costs are another headwind to the green energy transition.       The COVID-19 pandemic and other supply chain issues have made many raw       materials, such as aluminum, copper, and steel, more expensive. Prices of       many inputs have been dropping, but rising interest rates over the past 18       months have driven up the cost of financing projects, a particularly acute       problem for solar and wind farms as they require more upfront capital than       traditional power plants. Meanwhile, soaring staffing costs are an       additional headache.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       In extreme cases, spiraling costs are taking their toll and some projects       are being abandoned. Recently, Swedish energy giant Vattenfall suspended       work on a 1.4 GW offshore wind farm in the UK after a 40 percent increase       in costs. The company won a UK government contract to build 140 turbines       to provide energy to 1.5 million homes with low locked-in electricity       prices. But following the sharp rise in costs, Vattenfall was unsuccessful       in obtaining tax breaks from the government and subsequently halted the       project; negotiations are ongoing.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       Higher borrowing costs are also affecting consumer demand in the U.S.       despite growing concerns over the reliability of the power grid, given       struggles to cope with extreme heat waves. This slump in demand led many       home solar and backup-power companies in the U.S. to recently cut their       sales guidance for 2023.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Thinking outside the box<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>       When considering how to invest in this theme, renewable energy equipment       manufacturers come to mind. But given the headwinds they face, as well as       fiercer competition that could arise from generous subsidies attracting       new players, we believe investors would be better served by seeking a       broader opportunity set, including:     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Renewable energy operators, such as large utilities<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>         Industrial companies that focus on improving energy efficiency in         buildings or providing electrification of industrial processes       <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>         Semiconductor companies and other parts suppliers for the EV industry       <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>         Industrial gases companies that provide a range of low-carbon solutions         to support the decarbonization of industrial assets and processes       <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Select miners of critical minerals and mining equipment providers<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>       Timing and stock selection are key, however, in our view. The stock prices       of companies in most of these sectors are highly cyclical and could be       subject to volatility should U.S. recession concerns heighten.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Illuminating the renewable energy transition opportunity<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>       As nations\u2019 energy security policies converge with their environmental       agendas, the energy transition has been given a new impetus. Policymakers       are setting more ambitious targets for green technologies and injecting       ample financial support.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       Yet the green transition still faces serious challenges. The supply of       critical minerals, particularly copper, may well prove to be the barometer       of how rapidly the energy transition occurs. Antiquated grids and higher       borrowing costs amplify the challenges. The deadline for achieving       net-zero emissions by 2050 may wind up being pushed somewhat further out,       giving fossil fuels some additional respite.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       Nonetheless, the increased focus on energy security and the clean energy       transition will see some companies emerge in advantageous positions, but       given the challenges ahead, we think investors will need to be selective.     <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As the energy security imperative rejuvenates the green energy shift, we explore the challenges ahead and illuminate the opportunities that may emerge.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":12094,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2023-09-21 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