{"id":19285,"date":"2024-09-06T09:54:04","date_gmt":"2024-09-06T13:54:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/?p=19285"},"modified":"2024-09-06T09:54:05","modified_gmt":"2024-09-06T13:54:05","slug":"credit-where-credit-is-due","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/insights\/credit-where-credit-is-due","title":{"rendered":"Credit where credit is due?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Atul Bhatia, CFA<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n September is usually a busy month for corporate bond sales, and this year\n is off to a historic start, with a record-setting 29 companies selling\n bonds on the first business day of the month. A survey of banks conducted\n by Bloomberg indicated a likely slower pace ahead, with expectations that\n higher-rated, or \u201cinvestment-grade,\u201d companies will sell $125 billion of\n bonds by month-end, similar to last year\u2019s volume.\n <\/p>\n

\n Lower-rated issuers, often referred to as high-yield, have also been\n active, with $357 billion in 2024 bond sales through August 31, nearly\n double the pace of 2022 sales and well ahead of last year\u2019s numbers. In\n addition to bond sales, high-yield borrowers have been tapping loan\n markets for record amounts. One reason for the increased borrowings is to\n gain additional time for repayment\u2014high-yield borrowers this year have\n refinanced nearly $170 billion of upcoming maturities, the largest\n reduction on record.\n <\/p>\n \n

Demand meets supply<\/h2>\n

\n Markets have had little difficulty absorbing the large volume of issuance.\n Credit spreads\u2014which measure the additional yield investors receive for\n taking on higher perceived default risk\u2014ended August down almost 30 basis\n points year to date and are hovering near their lowest levels in almost\n two years. Credit spreads are inversely related to price, meaning\n corporate bond indexes have outperformed Treasuries so far this year.\n <\/p>\n

\n It may seem counter-intuitive that such a large volume of bond selling\n would not lead to pricing pressure, but we see several reasons for the\n apparent discrepancy.\n <\/p>\n

\n First, while compensation for corporate bond risk looks paltry relative to\n historical credit spreads, the picture is less clear when we compare bonds\n to other types of investments. Compared to S&P 500 valuations, for\n instance, we believe it\u2019s difficult to argue that corporate bonds look\n particularly expensive. Spreads today are at essentially the same level as\n they were in prior periods when stocks were trading at these types of\n price-to-earnings multiples. For investors who are looking for income but\n are uncomfortable with the current levels of stock prices, we believe\n corporate bonds are an alternative worth exploring.\n <\/p>\n \n

Credit may be rich, but not uniquely so<\/h3>\n

Equity multiples look consistent with tight spread levels<\/h4>\n
\n
\n \"S&P\n

\n The line chart compares the price-to-earnings (P\/E) multiple for the\n S&P 500 with the High-Yield CDX Index, an agglomeration of credit\n derivatives linked to 100 large, sub-investment grade issuers. The\n chart shows that the CDX Index (inverted) closely tracks the S&P 500\n P\/E.\n <\/p>\n

    \n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n S&P 500 P\/E ratio (left)\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n High-yield CDX spread (bps, inverted, right)\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

    Note: bps = basis points.<\/p>\n

    Source – RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

    \n Another reason for investor demand at these price levels, we believe, is a\n degree of comfort\u2014or potentially complacency\u2014around likely default levels\n in the near term. One of the key points of default is that it tends to\n happen mainly when large amounts of money are due. The fact that\n lower-rated, high-yield borrowers have extended their debt maturities by\n paying down significant amounts of near-term debt reduces\u2014but certainly\n does not eliminate\u2014the possibility of large-scale near-term defaults.\n <\/p>\n

    \n A final reason for the high level of current demand, we believe, is the\n rapid growth of private credit funds, and the need for these managers to\n put money to work. Although private credit tends to make direct loans to\n companies instead of buying bonds, their activity influences pricing\n across the capital structure. The chart at right understates the magnitude\n of the sector since data on assets under management (AUM) is only\n available with a significant lag.\n <\/p>\n \n

    Private credit is a rising force in direct lending<\/h3>\n

    Fund activities likely add downward pressure on spreads<\/h4>\n
    \n
    \n \"Direct\n

    \n The chart shows the growth in assets under management (AUM) in direct\n lending private credit strategies and the total invested in private\n credit funds, and direct lending\u2019s share of private credit activity,\n from 2006 through June 2023. Private credit strategies AUM grew more\n than tenfold, with direct lending rising from 4% to 46% of AUM in that\n time.\n <\/p>\n

      \n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n Direct lending AUM (billions, left)\n <\/li>\n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n Private credit of all types AUM (billions, left)\n <\/li>\n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n Direct lending share of private credit activity (right)\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

      Note: AUM = Assets Under Management.<\/p>\n

      \n Source – RBC Wealth Management, U.S. Federal Reserve; data through\n 6\/30\/23\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n

      Risk transfer in a world of uncertainty<\/h2>\n

      \n We can think of many reasons why higher-rated, investment-grade\n corporations are looking to issue now, but we believe it mostly boils down\n to managing uncertainty. Companies are dealing with both economic\n unknowns, as recession risks remain despite the Fed\u2019s best efforts to\n engineer a so-called \u201csoft landing,\u201d and policy variability, with a wide\n range of potential outcomes turning on November\u2019s election results. When\n there is a large range of potential outcomes, we think it makes sense for\n companies to lock in funding at good\u2014even if not the greatest\u2014rates. This\n is particularly true for high-grade borrowers who can sell 10-year bonds\n with yields below money market rates, creating potential cash flow gains\n from just depositing bond sale proceeds.\n <\/p>\n

      \n For investors, corporate bonds provide risk mitigation of a different\n sort. The Fed has telegraphed the start of a rate-cutting cycle beginning\n this month. The exact number and magnitude of the cuts is currently\n unknown and will depend on a host of variables, including labor market\n performance and fiscal policy changes. What does seem clear, however, is\n that the outsized returns from holding cash are likely to diminish soon\n and that investors will need to find alternatives to replace that cash\n flow. Corporate bonds have traditionally been a key source of portfolio\n income generation, and it\u2019s not surprising to us that some investors are\n looking to add holdings as they redeploy cash.\n <\/p>\n \n

      The road ahead<\/h2>\n

      \n The attractiveness of corporate bonds as a sub-asset class at these levels\n largely depends, we believe, on an investor\u2019s time horizon. For investors\n with a multi-year outlook and focused on maximizing cash flows,\n investment-grade bonds can provide a potentially interesting yield\n advantage over U.S. Treasuries. On a shorter time horizon, however, it may\n prove difficult for corporate bonds to significantly outperform their\n government counterparts. The combination of a potentially slowing economy\n and heightened policy uncertainty may make it difficult for corporate\n bonds to continue their recent track record of gains.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Despite signs of a slowing economy, corporate bond issuance kicked off the month at a record pace. We look at how the market has absorbed the new debt and what factors are likely to drive bond performance ahead.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":19283,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2024-09-05T16:50:36","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[690,691,692],"rbcwm_content_owner":[609],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[468],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-19285","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-bond-risk","tag-bond-sales","tag-price-to-earnings","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"Despite signs of a slowing economy, corporate bond issuance kicked off the month at a record pace. We look at how the market has absorbed the new debt and what factors are likely to drive bond performance ahead.","rbcwm_post_author":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":[],"disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[8484],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"\nCredit where credit is due?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Despite signs of a slowing economy, corporate bond issuance kicked off the month at a record pace. 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