{"id":19585,"date":"2024-09-27T12:58:09","date_gmt":"2024-09-27T16:58:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/?p=19585"},"modified":"2024-09-27T12:58:10","modified_gmt":"2024-09-27T16:58:10","slug":"draghi-europe-time-to-press-ahead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/insights\/draghi-europe-time-to-press-ahead","title":{"rendered":"Draghi: Europe, time to press ahead"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\n Mario Draghi, the leading European Union (EU) technocrat, recently\n published a 400-page report which reveals a bold plan to revitalize the EU\n economy. Draghi had been tasked by the EU Commission to come up with a\n plan to make Europe more competitive. In the report, he warns that Europe\n urgently needs to boost growth and productivity, or else it could face an\n existential crisis.\n <\/p>\n

\n The review was much needed because, since its creation, Europe and the\n world around it have changed markedly. In the late 1980s, when the concept\n of the European single market began to take shape, Italy\u2019s economy was\n larger than the combined economies of China and India. China\u2019s transition\n to state-subsidized high-value-added manufacturing over the past 13 years\n is increasingly putting it in competition with Europe, moving away from\n its traditional reliance on Europe as a source of inputs. Europe\u2019s\n geopolitical situation has also shifted, with the U.S., on which Europe\n relied on for its security, potentially focusing more on Asia and other\n regions in the future.\n <\/p>\n

\n Draghi argues that Europe\u2019s lackluster economic performance not only\n causes it to fall behind its competitors, but meager productivity growth\n also contributes to declining living standards. Without significant policy\n action, he stresses that these issues\u2014loss of competitiveness and sliding\n living standards\u2014will worsen and could diminish Europe\u2019s influence in the\n world.\n <\/p>\n

\n The picture in Europe is not uniformly bleak. Some industries are dynamic\n and innovative. Pharmaceuticals, for instance, an industry with a\n long-established tradition, is competing successfully on the global stage.\n In Technology, Europe dominates in semiconductor manufacturing equipment,\n and enjoys a monopoly in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines,\n essential equipment for the manufacturing of the most advanced\n semiconductor chips. It also leads in enterprise resource planning\n software. Furthermore, it is home to some of the most prominent consumer\n goods, luxury goods, and industrial companies globally.\n <\/p>\n

\n But in frontier technology, such as artificial intelligence (AI), Europe\u2019s\n innovation pace lags that of the United States. This is concerning, as AI\n technological advancements have the potential to drive further innovation\n across various sectors.\n <\/p>\n

\n In his report, Draghi singles out the need to foster \u201cbreakthrough\n innovation\u201d and to establish a level playing field with the U.S. whose\n technology companies are spending vast amounts of money, and with China\n where industrial and technological behemoths are state-backed. Innovation,\n as he sees it, can boost both economic and productivity growth. Draghi\n argues the region is generally very good at basic scientific research but\n fails to turn it into innovation and commercialization.\n <\/p>\n \n

Ambitious proposals<\/h2>\n

\n To achieve this, Draghi thinks Europe needs additional investment of up to\n \u20ac800 billion per year for the foreseeable future. This would require a\n herculean effort as it would increase the share of EU investment to 27\n percent of GDP from the current 22 percent, an unprecedented increase\n after years of decline. To put things in perspective, the recovery fund\n that the EU put together in 2020 to help member countries recover from the\n economic impact of the pandemic totalled \u20ac750 billion.\n <\/p>\n \n

Boosting investment to the required level may prove challenging<\/h3>\n

\n EU investment as a percentage of EU GDP, and recommended future funding\n level in the Draghi report\n <\/h4>\n
\n
\n \"EU\n

\n The chart shows EU investment as a percentage of EU GDP over the past\n 20 years, and the projected future investment need through 2026 based\n on Mario Draghi\u2019s EU competitiveness report. During the period, the\n maximum investment percentage was 24.3% in 2007. Investment\n subsequently trended lower, decreasing to a period minimum of 19.5% in\n 2012. It then trended generally higher, reaching 23.6% of GDP in 2021,\n before declining steadily to roughly 20% in 2024. The Draghi report\n suggests investment should grow to 27% of GDP in 2026, nearly three\n percentage points higher than has been achieved over the past 20\n years.\n <\/p>\n

Source – RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

\n Draghi expects most of the funds will come in the form of private\n investment, although some additional public investment will be needed. But\n such large amounts represent a real challenge. The traditional European\n model relies on bank funding which may not be adequate for this purpose.\n Banks may be reluctant to fund firms developing risky, disruptive\n technologies with uncertain prospects. And Europe\u2019s capital markets lack\n depth and liquidity. His report does not address how to overcome these\n issues, though the question of coordinated EU investment has again\n resurfaced.\n <\/p>\n

\n Draghi also suggests that the EU should leverage its scale in sectors like\n defence, telecoms, energy, and finance which currently operate in\n fragmented markets. Given the new geopolitical reality, his view is that\n these sectors should now be considered as strategic at the EU level and\n operate seamlessly across countries. Integration is currently hindered by\n varying national regulations and concerns over loss of national\n sovereignty. We believe deep structural reforms are necessary to address\n these challenges.\n <\/p>\n \n

Reserved reaction<\/h2>\n

\n The reaction to the report in Europe has been muted. That may be due to\n the current lack of leadership in Europe\u2019s two big members. France and\n Germany have succumbed to political turmoil and don\u2019t seem to be able to\n focus on this subject. This is disappointing as both countries should be\n taking this report as the blueprint for their own economic and industrial\n revival, in our view.\n <\/p>\n

\n According to Draghi, unless measures are taken to improve productivity,\n Europe is likely to experience a slow but inexorable decline. And herein\n lies the problem. In the past, it has required acute crises for Europe to\n unite, overcome the status quo, and take bold action. In response to the\n pandemic, the EU engaged in large-scale joint-borrowing to fund the \u20ac750\n billion recovery fund, a first for the union. Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine\n prompted greater solidarity and cooperation among EU member states to\n address security concerns.\n <\/p>\n

\n The trouble is that a gradual loss of competitiveness is not a seismic\n shock. Urgency and immediate severity may not spur national governments\n into taking the radical, ambitious measures that are needed.\n <\/p>\n

\n The hope is that the recently re-elected head of the EU Commission, Ursula\n von der Leyen, and her Commissioners will endorse Draghi\u2019s report as their\n economic agenda. After all, it is the EU Commission, as the executive\n branch of the European Union, which requested the report. The Commission\u2019s\n five-year term could enable the implementation of at least some of the\n proposed measures. Though Draghi\u2019s proposals might be unappealing to some\n governments due to potential losses of national sovereignty, many\n countries accepted ceding some autonomy when the single market was\n established decades ago, a decision which bore fruit. In this context, we\n believe Italian bank UniCredit\u2019s recent buildup of a 21 percent stake in\n Germany\u2019s Commerzbank may signal the beginning of a new era of\n consolidation in the banking sector.\n <\/p>\n \n

Investment implications<\/h2>\n

\n The European equity market is not representative of the European economy\n and has markedly evolved over the past decade. Today, a greater proportion\n of European companies\u2019 revenues are derived from outside the region as\n opposed to domestically. We believe both these structural changes and its\n cyclical nature make the European equity market primed for active stock\n picking rather than a passive approach.\n <\/p>\n

\n Given the region\u2019s domestic challenges, we have long advocated focusing on\n Europe\u2019s world-leading companies that benefit from and drive structural\n global trends. Some examples are companies that are focused on niche areas\n key to the future of the global economy or those at the forefront of\n providing innovative solutions to sustainability challenges.\n <\/p>\n

\n Europe is home to many companies that provide the equipment and solutions\n needed for what we believe will be a multi-year capex super-cycle\n associated with the significant amounts of investment related to\n structural trends such as electrification, reshoring, and digital\n transformation including AI. We find attractive long-term opportunities in\n niches such as semiconductor manufacturing equipment, electrical and\n mechanical engineering, and industrial gases. Moreover, China-exposed\n cyclicals, that have significantly underperformed of late, would stand to\n benefit should the recently announced monetary stimulus in China be\n followed up with additional fiscal support.\n <\/p>\n

\n Elsewhere, we still believe there are several attractive investment\n opportunities within Europe\u2019s Health Care sector, as well as selectively\n within consumer and luxury goods areas, as well as Financials.\n <\/p>\n

With contributions from Thomas McGarrity, CFA<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Mario Draghi recently submitted a comprehensive report addressing the EU\u2019s loss of competitiveness. 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