{"id":21048,"date":"2024-10-18T16:17:00","date_gmt":"2024-10-18T20:17:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/?p=21048"},"modified":"2025-04-11T09:03:14","modified_gmt":"2025-04-11T13:03:14","slug":"focus-on-earnings-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/insights\/focus-on-earnings-season","title":{"rendered":"Focus on earnings season"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\n Given the flurry of tariff and other policy developments, many investors\n seem to have their eyes glued on Washington\u2014understandably so. But we\n think it\u2019s also important to pay attention to what we believe matters most\n to the U.S. stock market over the medium and long term\u2014corporate profit\n trends.\n <\/p>\n

\n The ongoing Q4 2024 earnings season is in good shape thus far, from our\n vantage point, including earnings and revenue beat rates and magnitude of\n beats. However, there have been some highlights and lowlights.\n <\/p>\n

\n With 78 percent of the S&P 500 market capitalization having reported\n results as of Feb. 13, the Q4 2024 earnings-per-share (EPS) growth\n estimate has jumped to 12.6 percent from 7.3 percent since Jan. 10, just\n before the earnings season began, according to Bloomberg.\n <\/p>\n

\n The Bloomberg full-year consensus EPS forecasts are for $246 per share\n (9.4 percent y\/y growth) in 2024 and $271 per share (10.4 percent y\/y growth rounded) in\n 2025.\n <\/p>\n

\n The $271 per share 2025 estimate is lower than the $273 per share forecast\n right before the earnings season began. This does not trouble us as the\n full year forecast typically retreats at this stage of the year, and\n heading into the results season we had thought that the 2025 estimate was\n too lofty. It now looks more realistic, assuming annual GDP growth holds\n up near the 2.2 percent consensus forecast for this year or exceeds it.\n <\/p>\n \n

Consensus earnings growth forecasts seem lofty from Q3 2025 onward<\/h3>\n

S&P 500 year-over-year growth<\/h4>\n
\n
\n \"S&P\n
\n The chart shows S&P 500 quarterly year-over-year earnings per share\n (EPS) and revenue growth; actual results from Q1 2022 through Q3 2024\n and consensus forecasts from Q4 2024 through Q2 2026. Revenue growth\n started Q1 2022 high at 13.1% and declined steadily to 1.7% in Q2\n 2023. It then climbed steadily to 6.2% in Q3 2024. Consensus forecasts\n for Q4 2024 through Q2 2026 range from 4.6% to 6.5%. EPS growth\n started Q1 2022 at 11.1%. It steadily declined, turning negative in Q4\n 2022 and bottomed out at -5.0% in Q2 2023. Since then, it has improved\n into positive territory, but has been in a wide range through Q3 2024,\n peaking at 12.8% in Q2 2024. Consensus forecasts are as follows: Q4\n 2024 11.3%, Q1 2025 7.8%, Q2 2025 7.5%, Q3 2025 12.2%, Q4 2025 13.4%,\n Q1 2026 16.7%, Q2 2026 14.3%.\n <\/div>\n
    \n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n EPS growth\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Revenue growth\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

    \n Source – RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg Intelligence; data as of\n 2\/13\/25; Q1 2022-Q3 2024 are actual results, Q4 2024 onward are\n Bloomberg consensus estimates (E)\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n

    Lowlights: Magnificent 7 (well, five actually)<\/h2>\n

    \n Earnings reports from five of the so-called Magnificent 7 stocks\u2014Alphabet,\n Amazon.com, Apple, Microsoft, and Tesla\u2014have been lowlights, in our view.\n Meta Platforms was the exception, and the other Magnificent 7 stock,\n advanced chipmaker NVIDIA, is scheduled to release results on Feb. 26.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Despite the fact that earnings growth exceeded the consensus forecast for\n many of them, the quality of the results didn\u2019t live up to those of\n previous quarters. There were blemishes in terms of revenue growth of key\n units and\/or somewhat lower-than-expected forward projections from\n management teams.\n <\/p>\n

    \n The results and\/or guidance also didn\u2019t rise to the very high investor\n expectations that had been baked into share prices and valuations. There\n was little room for error, and all five stocks sold off after they\n reported.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Each Magnificent 7 firm is very involved in the global artificial\n intelligence (AI) ecosystem. We think scrutiny on the billions upon\n billions in AI capital spending that has already occurred by these\n companies\u2014with more in the pipeline\u2014will be in focus in coming quarters.\n So too will competition and developments coming from China\u2019s AI firms.\n <\/p>\n

    \n We expect the pressure will build for America\u2019s AI leaders to \u201cshow\n investors the money\u201d so to speak\u2014in other words, to start showing tangible\n prospects for the return on invested capital in their AI buildouts,\n especially given that their price-to-earnings valuations still look\n elevated.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Magnificent 7 earnings trends going forward will likely help shape market\n performance in the near term, especially given this group represents about\n 32 percent of the S&P 500\u2019s market capitalization (aka market value).\n With such a large footprint, when the Magnificent 7 stocks do well, they\n tend to boost S&P 500 returns like in 2023 and 2024. In contrast, when\n their shares consolidate or sell off, they can constrain or hinder the\n S&P 500\u2019s progress, like recently.\n <\/p>\n \n

    Highlights: The rest of the market, especially Financials<\/h2>\n

    \n We think Q4 2024 earnings results from the rest of the market have, on\n balance, been pretty good so far.\n <\/p>\n

    \n The S&P 500 excluding Magnificent 7\u2014the overwhelming majority of\n stocks in the index\u2014is pacing at 7.5 percent year-over-year earnings\n growth thus far, which is ahead of 3.7 percent in the previous quarter.\n Results from the Financials sector, and bank stocks in particular, have\n been standouts, in our view.\n <\/p>\n

    \n We have yet to hear from major retailers and many other Consumer\n Discretionary sector stocks. We will be monitoring these reports closely\n given signs of stress among lower-income households due to sticky\n inflation and signals that recent spending by this category has been\n fueled by elevated credit card usage.\n <\/p>\n \n

    Is convergence really ahead?<\/h2>\n

    \n The big question is whether forecasts for earnings convergence\u2014the coming\n together of earnings growth rates for the Magnificent 7 and the remainder\n of the companies in the S&P 500\u2014will finally materialize.\n <\/p>\n

    \n The consensus forecast is for Magnificent 7 earnings growth to continue to\n decline this year mainly due to challenging year-over-year comparisons.\n This would not be a negative development, so long as major hiccups don\u2019t\n occur and things play out as forecast.\n <\/p>\n

    \n In contrast, earnings growth for non-Magnificent 7 stocks is expected to\n pick up more later this year.\n <\/p>\n \n

    Earnings growth rates are expected to converge later this year<\/h3>\n

    \n S&P 500 year-over-year earnings growth and consensus estimates (%)\n <\/h4>\n
    \n
    \n \"S&P\n
    \n The chart shows S&P 500 quarterly year-over-year earnings per share\n (EPS) and revenue growth; actual results from Q1 2022 through Q3 2024\n and consensus forecasts from Q4 2024 through Q2 2026. Revenue growth\n started Q1 2022 high at 13.1% and declined steadily to 1.7% in Q2\n 2023. It then climbed steadily to 6.2% in Q3 2024. Consensus forecasts\n for Q4 2024 through Q2 2026 range from 4.6% to 6.5%. EPS growth\n started Q1 2022 at 11.1%. It steadily declined, turning negative in Q4\n 2022 and bottomed out at -5.0% in Q2 2023. Since then, it has improved\n into positive territory, but has been in a wide range through Q3 2024,\n peaking at 12.8% in Q2 2024. Consensus forecasts are as follows: Q4\n 2024 11.3%, Q1 2025 7.8%, Q2 2025 7.5%, Q3 2025 12.2%, Q4 2025 13.4%,\n Q1 2026 16.7%, Q2 2026 14.3%.\n <\/div>\n
      \n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n Magnificent 7 stocks*\n <\/li>\n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n S&P 500 excluding Magnificent 7\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

      \n * Magnificent 7 stocks are Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon.com,\n NVIDIA, Tesla, and Meta Platforms.\n <\/p>\n

      \n Source – RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg Intelligence; data as of\n 2\/13\/25; Q1 2023 – Q3 2024 are actual results, Q4 2024 onward\n are Bloomberg consensus estimates (E)\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

      \n Whether or not the current convergence forecast plays out will depend on\n economic developments, in our view. If economists\u2019 2025 consensus GDP\n growth forecast deteriorates meaningfully from the current 2.2 percent\n level, we think the likelihood of this convergence would diminish.\n <\/p>\n

      \n But if sturdy GDP growth and earnings convergence play out as forecast or\n exceed expectations, we would anticipate the non-Magnificent 7 area of the\n S&P 500 to deliver worthwhile share price returns as a group this\n year.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Washington, D.C. policy decisions have been in the spotlight of late, but we think investors should not take their eyes off the results and clues coming from Q4 earnings season.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":21055,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2025-02-13T14:58:37","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"rbcwm_content_owner":[609],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[468],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-21048","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"Washington, D.C. policy decisions have been in the spotlight of late, but we think investors should not take their eyes off the results and clues coming from Q4 earnings season.","rbcwm_post_author":[814],"rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":[],"disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[8484],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"\nFocus on earnings season<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Washington, D.C. policy decisions have been in the spotlight of late, but we think investors should not take their eyes off the results and clues coming from Q4 earnings season.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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